RFE/RL Georgian Service correspondent Nino Gelashvili talked to political expert Przemyslaw Zurawski vel Grajewski of the Natolin European Center in Warsaw and the University of Lodz about the emerging political situation in Poland.
RFE/RL: How important was Lech Kaczynski in determining your country's domestic and foreign policy?
Zurawski vel Grajewski: He was a public enemy of the government. So Poland is deeply divided now. This has been the situation for the past two years. The president was the official head of the minority camp. I stress the word "official" since the real operational head was his twin brother. And the president was the target of very cruel and, in my opinion, unjust attacks during his presidency.
On the other hand, his supporters think that he was the symbol of a policy based on the dignity of Poland --
Lech Kaczynski was a public enemy of the government? How odd? Because just before this, in the interview Zurawski vel Grajewski remarks on the dead in the plane crash
"it was still the presidential camp" So how is it that the Presidential camp, including the President of Poland is the public enemy of the government?
RFE/RL: Current polls show the Civic Platform candidate Bronislaw Komorowski, the parliament speaker and acting president, with a strong lead over Jaroslaw Kaczynski. But those polls were conducted before Kaczynski formally declared his candidacy. The elections are in mid-June. Is it possible to predict an outcome for the vote at this point?
Zurawski vel Grajewski: Every public poll that has been conducted in Poland since 1989 has proved to be wrong. They never guess the real result. I have no idea what the reality is right now.
Guess, polls are not guesses. Setting up for a stolen election? A colour revolution?
RFE/RL: Many people think Poland's relationship with Russia is going to change. Some say they will grow warmer, some say colder. Both of those views are now colored by the events of April 10. Do you see any potential for ties to improve?
Zurawski vel Grajewski; "There's an expectation among a large part of the Polish population that ties will improve. In my opinion, it's very naïve."
" It's based on emotions" "A lot depends on the Americans"
RFE/RL: Do you think the Polish people care about the stance their future leader will take on Russia? Will it be an important election issue?
Zurawski vel Grajewski: Yes, I think it will. But Poland is deeply divided on that. I mean, there are a lot of people who think that we are too small and too weak to act independently. We currently have no American support, and of course no support from the EU, which is governed by the pro-Russian Germany and France. So we can do nothing -- that's one point of view.
The claim of no American support is about to change if Sikorski has anything to say and do with it. In yesterday's post, Poland- IMF loans and Radoslaw Sikorski does the US that became quite clear. Additionaly, I would hardly consider Germany or France pro-Russian.
"The other point of view -- represented by a minority, by the late president's camp -- is that we have no other choice but to defend our own interests in cooperation with our smaller partners in the region. But I think this political camp is on the retreat. It has suffered the worst casualties"This is the camp of Polish independance, I will assume, and that camp was largely wiped out in the Plane crash.
Of course I went to check on the Natolin Centre, it is a think tank, clearly.
A quick look at their partners, and I see no pro-Russian partners, therefore it must be assumed this think tank has an EU/Western bias.