Thursday, August 12, 2010

Abkhaz missiles, old news making the rounds now, WHY?

According to this news piece, and this news piece, the missiles were placed in Abkhazia possibly as long as two years ago, after the foolhearty attack on South Ossetia by Georgia.

(Heads-up, this is a long bit of news, no soundbite like the msm)
Washington is not surprised by reports that Russia deployed S-300 air-defense systems.

"I believe it's our understanding that Russia has had S-300 missiles in Abkhazia for the past two years," Philip Crowley, the department's assistant secretary, told a daily press briefing.

"There have been systems in Abkhazia for two years. We can't confirm whether they [Russia] have added to those systems or not... this is by itself is not necessarily a new development. That system has been in place for some time," he added.


But Sergey Shamba, the breakaway region's prime minister, later told the BBC that the missiles were in Abkhazia, and had already been there for about a year.

So what is going on? Why is this old news making the headline rounds at this time?
Why is the main stream media spinning this old news, as breaking news and even worse reporting it as if this is some new threat from Russia aimed at Georgia?

Let's see how the Georgian media is spinning this? Of course as an act of aggression.
Which is a bit of a stretch since it was Georgia that attacked South Ossetia two years ago.
The facts aside, What are Georgia's claims?

Breach of ceasefire-
"Obviously, such action is one more violation of Sarkozy-Mediated [six-point ceasefire] agreement.
Georgia under threat-
Georgia in view of even theoretical threats because S-300 is a long range missile.

It is NATO, which should be first and for most concerned about Russia's deployment of missiles
Time for a map, always handy for reference:

This one shows the semi-autonomous states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
And all the countries I will be mention in relation to one another
(semi-autonomous is a misleading label, for all intents and purposes these states have been independant of Georgia for a long time now)

So this old news is making the rounds, at this time, to portray Georgia as a nation under threat.

Is it Georgia that is under threat? Or is this a ploy to justify an attack on the breakaway provinces, to distract Russia from any chance of engaging in, or assisting in, defending Iran should Israel and the US decide to attack? Which is almost inevitiable.

These missile deployments have alot to do with air defence, read on-

According to Russia’s air force Commander-in-Chief, Colonel-General Alexander Zelin, the purpose of these air defenses is to avert “border” violations in the air and destroy any aircraft penetrating those territories’ “air space.”

This next paragraph is important if we are to understand why Russia has deployed these missiles and how it plays into what is looking like an inevitable attack on Iran.

The Russian deployment’s most likely goal is to create a capability for interdicting Georgian, or indeed US and NATO, flights over the adjacent Black Sea area, Georgia’s interior, and the South Caucasus air corridor. Russian interdiction capability can deter Georgia, the United States and its allies from using those flight paths in certain contingencies; or can compel them to clear their flight plans with Russia in certain contingencies. Such contingencies may include another Russian invasion of Georgia complete with an air blockade; or US air operations in the South Caucasus, in the context of possible hostilities with Iran; or demonstrating Russian air interdiction capability along the allied supply corridor to Central Asia and Afghanistan.
There are some other happenings mentioned in above article that are worth considering-

In 2008, Russia successfully pressured Israel to cease delivering UAV’s (?) (and, afterward, any military equipment) to Georgia. Despite its special relationship with Georgia, Israel complied when Moscow threatened to deliver S-300 air defense systems to Iran and heavy rockets to Hezbollah.

That sentence is a bit misleading, when read properly, Israel did not necessarily comply until Russia threatened to deliver missile systems to Iran, which happened in 2010.
So it is entirely possible Israel has continued to deliver weapons after the Georgian invasion up until the Iranian missile deal seemed to have fallen through. It is worth mentioning that Russia is still considering that deal. Continuing on.....
Under a Russian-drafted protocol, expected to be signed by Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Serge Sarksyan in Yerevan shortly, Armenia will extend Russia’s basing rights in Armenia for decades to come. The existing agreement, signed in 1995, entitles Russia to use the Gyumri base in Armenia (on the Turkish border) for 25 years, (until 2020). The additional protocol, as confirmed by Armenia’s National Security Council Secretary, Artur Bagdasarian, would extend that period past 2020 for another 24 years, or a total of 49 years until 2044, “with the possibility of subsequent extensions.” Moreover, the protocol would broaden the scope of Russian troops’ mission so as to include defense of Armenia Additionally:

Armenia To Seek ‘Long-Range’ Weapons

Armenia plans to acquire long-range precision-guided weapons and will be ready to use them in possible armed conflicts with hostile neighbors.

It was not immediately clear whether Yerevan’s desire to get hold of more powerful weapons is connected with a new Russian-Armenian military agreement expected to be signed soon. The agreement will reportedly take the form of significant changes in a 1995 treaty regulating the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia.

Besides Armenia, the map include Azerbaijan

Anti-aircraft missiles to Azerbaijan a 'good deal' for Russia

Click on a label below, I have covered this area of the world previously.

Things are heating up, definitely. Possibly Georgia, backed this time by NATO will attack one of the 'semi-autonomous' states, while Israel and the US launch an attack on Iran.
Hope I am wrong, but, this is a definite possibility.

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