Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Pakistan & the US. Movement on the Grand Chessboard?

I hope no one has forgotten today, October 13/2010, is alien contact day!
Just don't hold your breath.

Today, I am posting two interesting opinion pieces. Regarding Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, the US and of course Israel.

The Iranian President is visiting Lebanon. Some reports have him being greeted with open arms.
Some reports have Israel very concerned. TIME has a strange headline?

What is the implication? Lot of referencing to stones thrown and sniper shots?
Talk of danger and instability. Would this visit present an opportunity. If so, for who?
I found this piece sort of interesting... Using DEBKA as a resource, this writer opines that the Iranian leaders visit may present an opportunity for Hezbollah to overthrow the government of Lebanon. Which is odd, as I though Hezbollah was a political party in the Lebanese government.
So I am not sure about that?

The writer also mentions keeping an eye on Syria?

Assad has tried to put on a moderate appearance: a few weeks ago, he publicly asked the Iranian president to cancel his visit to South Lebanon. Assad offered to enter peace talks with Israel.
Assad reshuffled his security agencies.

According to Debka, the senior US diplomat, Frederic Hof, on Friday delivered an ultimatum to Syria not to allow Hezbollah to use any violence in Lebanon. Such a move makes a lot of sense, and it even falls short of what some analysts feel Barack Obama needs to do. "Obama must, at a minimum, publicly state that he will hold Syria accountable for any bid to topple the Lebanese government, whether by the Syrians or their proxies in Hezbollah,"

Obama is hard-pressed for some foreign-policy achievements, and according to Stratfor this will likely be even more true after the November congressional elections in the US. Given the gloomy news coming from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, and the poor progress of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.. the US administration might be prepared to reward Syria generously for a peace agreement with Israel.

For now, nevertheless, a Syrian defection from Iran is still in the realm of speculation, and Assad appears set on vacillating. What that means for Lebanon remains to be seen - perhaps very shortly.

So, keep an eye on Syria. If they make nice with Israel before the US elections, Obama will have one thing to campaign on. Wondering what generous reward Syria would be offered for that. Could it be Lebanon? How would that be made possible?

Then onto the war on Pakistan. I know no one is officially calling it that, but, that is what it is.

Shifting war on terror to Pakistan

some excerpts.

In a previous article regarding America’s strategic objectives in Pakistan, I had opined that the ongoing war on terror in Afghanistan is aimed to take the operations into the Pakistani territory. The real target is Pakistan’s nuclear potential; they have no plausible security threat from the ill-equipped Talibans or ragtag extremist. Arthur Herman, an author and scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), has hinted at the real objective of the US. AEI is a think tank closely associated with the neoconservatives and is openly committed to Israel’s security. It supplies advisors to officials of the US administration and serves as “incubator for new policy ideas and is critical part of the web of power in Washington”

The line of arguments puts the emphasis on the perceived fact that the US cannot win the war on terror in Afghanistan, unless the militant sanctuaries in Pakistan are shutdown or ‘blown out’ - but the current US policy is not achieving that goal. The hidden suggestion is obvious: there has to be an escalation in the crossborder military attacks. (They have been working on that) What we have witnessed in the latest NATO raid on FC post is a step towards that direction. It was intentional, as the NATO Secretary General has said; they knew the post was not a terrorist sanctuary and yet they attacked it. It is a deliberate provocation to test the response from Pakistan side. (the response was the temporary closure of the Khyber pass)


There are however bigger fish to catch. The writer asserts that once the NATO forces are certain of the location of Pakistan nukes they will strike quickly and decisively.

The US, thus, is not inclined to militarily move into Pakistan and stay here for a longer duration in occupation mode. With Pakistan army’s fighting potential and the general hostility of the masses it will be a very costly affair. America does not want another Vietnam in this region. They would like to mount a lightning strike to take out Pakistan’s nukes. That can happen only once General David Petraeus is reasonably assured about the location of our nuclear assets.

Then there is Blackwater ( what ever their new name is no one seems to use it)

I had voiced my apprehension in a previous article about the role and tasking of the notorious Blackwater and its deployment in Pakistan. What is it doing in Pakistan no one knows? In fact, it has just vanished. It may be vigorously searching the storage facilities and locations of our assets which weigh heavily on the American mind, or should one say the Israeli mind.


Of course Israel is never to far behind..

Israel is wary of nuclear capability with any Muslim country. During Zia’s regime, it is reported that Israel with the connivance of India wanted to destroy Kahuta by launching an air raid.
More so, the political clout that Israel exercises on the US administration is obvious. The fact that policy suggestions to take the war to Pakistan emanate from the think tanks, who work for the Israel lobby, indicates that this lobby is using all its might to force the Obama administration to create conditions where it becomes possible to go after Pak nuclear assets. For the time being, aerial and ground based pressure will be exercised to keep things hot. Once the ground reconnaissance by Blackwater confirms the targets, there will be an all-out effort to destroy them. Till then, the US led “anti-terror forces” will keep Pakistan engaged by raids in FATA area stepping up the tempo. Pakistan needs to remain vigilant and be prepared for the worst.
What movements will take place on the Grand Chessboard?

24 comments:

  1. Hi Pen,
    I have been following the situation in Lebanon.
    It's kinda funny, you citing only western sources for your segment on "Nejads" visit. I trust it is because you enjoy mocking their so-called balanced reporting. ;)
    Nice.
    The Hariri assassination inquest is something you did not mention. IMHO it is something to keep an eye on.

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  2. Interesting comment from Hillary Clinton re; the visit to lebanon by the iranian leader.

    "US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that,"The United States supports the integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. We reject any efforts to destabilize or inflame tensions within Lebanon," referring to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's arrival in Beirut on Wednesday, AFP reported."

    As reported in Jerusalem Post
    http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=191262

    but which country has been attemtpting to destabilize lebanon for a long, long time.

    It has been Israel.
    Hmmmm....

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  3. The hariri assasination inquest is mentioned in the piece from the asian times.

    And I agree completely it is something to keep an eye on, but, the blame will fall on Hezbollah, though I do not think they are the perps.

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  4. Hey Peter, what's your take on this visit and situation in Lebanon?

    Or the statement by Hillary?

    The US supports Lebanon's sovereignty and integrity?


    Not when Israel attacks, the US supports Israel's desire for land and resources.

    Who is she kidding?

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  5. Hillary can be relied upon to deliver the devastating "truth"!!!
    ...not
    Yes, Hezbollah/ Syria will be the fall guys in the eyes of the western media vis a vis Hariri assassination.. I am glad you clarified that . I think it is very very important.
    Israh Hell is finished. Turkey and Syria are rebuilding relations.There is even talk of resumption of relations between the big boys on the block Egypt and Iran wow!!
    tel Aviv must be scared.
    Perhaps danger waits in the wings but the Muslim world is uniting as never before!!
    Todays news in Beirut is most joyous for the poor disenfranchised Muslim street.

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  6. The Asia Times article is pure propaganda. The author, while drawing attention to the dubious credibility of Debka, then goes on to repeat all Debka's talking points thus giving them more air time and thus credibility.
    It's the Hegelian Dialectic in play. See here how Ray McGovern uses it

    Hezbollah did not assassinate Hariri. It is not their style, nor is violent overthrow. That's the style of someone else. The same people who run Debka, come to think of it!

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  7. I don't think Hezbollah in Lebanon killed Hariri. Not even for a minute.

    I believe the only country that has attempted destabilization for some time now, is Israel, with help from the US.


    I was a bit more interested in the Syrian angle.
    Is Syria willing to "make peace" with Israel, which really means give Israel all it wants.

    With elections coming in the US and Obama (the peace president lol) needing something, anything he can sell as an accomplishment, because he hasn't anything else.

    If Syria covets Lebanon, which I believe the do to an extent, and Israel covets Lebanon, which we know they do.

    What might be offered up? What might be arranged?

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  9. "A resolution must be found to vindicate Hezbollah and Syria."

    IMO, That is not going to happen.

    Could you imagine Syria and Hezbollah being vindicated?

    That will happen when Israel is properly brought into line for it's multiple human rights abuses, it's illegal attacks, it's thievery etc.,

    And, I don't see that happening any time to soon.

    Though you may be right about one thing, the Arab world may be uniting, and they would be extremely beneficial to them as a whole.

    BUT, I have some serious doubts about the dictator/western sock puppet in Egypt.
    They are too reliant on western dollars.

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  10. Ooops, almost forgot

    "The westen media is keeping attention away from the Hariri assassination"

    And they have been since they planted the initial plot line of Syria being behind it

    Just like this aid worker that was killed by US special forces...
    The initial seed was planted. Taliban, bomb vest.
    Dam the facts to hell

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  11. The westen media is keeping attention away from the Hariri assassination. Penny's western media sources, in her post, deliberatly avoided mentioning the Hariri assasssination. (notice my emphasizing the Hariri assassination ;D) With the exception ofthe AsiaTimes piece (sorry Penn I missed that) but as James says, it too is pure propaganda.
    The Saudi, so-called "Arab" media is yet another appendage of this highly deceptive western media who want to villify Hezbollah and Syria with accusations of complicity in the Hariri assassination. The corrupt Saudi regime is nothing but a sock puppet for western interests.
    It worries me no end that this Hariri assassination is festering. A resolution must be found to vindicate Hezbollah and Syria.Serious stuff indeed. This is a key area of concern for me and it is my impression that within Lebanon ,it is THE central topic of concern there as well.
    So yes James, {***restricting the “field of view'***}important issues are being avoided. Excellent point!!

    **Could you imagine Syria and Hezbollah being vindicated?**
    I do imagine it. Penny, the truth will prevail. IMHO it, israeli/western complicity in the Hariri assassination, is the Achilles heel, the crack in the armament. Witnesss the desparation in the west.The Hariri assassinaion will go down in history as the straw that broke the camels back.

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  12. I was a bit more interested in the Syrian angle.
    Is Syria willing to "make peace" with Israel, which really means give Israel all it wants.


    Short answer is 'No'. The whole scenario is a propaganda ploy. It is bullshit from start to finish. See how it works? Israel/<Mossad, through Debka, through Victor Kotsev of the Asia Times, is controlling the narrative; our thoughts, in other words.

    The idea is to distract us all from what is really going on and possibly even create discord between the principle actors, Hizbollah, Syria and Iran (but I don't like their chances!).

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  13. "The Hariri assassinaion will go down in history as the straw that broke the camels back."

    I do hope both of you are right.
    That just for once we would see truth, real truth prevail.

    But, not just prevail, break through to the masses.

    We can hope. And I guess hope is what keeps me blogging.

    Cripes, I am sounding like Obama!

    Rephrase! Let's keep plugging along until we guarantee truth prevails. That sounds better.

    James, perhaps you have a better take on the Syrian angle then I, but...... some offers can be made that are to hard to resist.

    Thinking of the Russian pull back of the sale of missiles to Iran.
    Why? Was something offered to them?

    Still I hope Syria resists the call of the west.

    It has been the division between the arabs that has put them in the mess they are in.

    Same as the division between us as a people (colour, religion, gay or straight, that keep us divided)

    Sorry for that wandering, but, it happens :)

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  14. James, HERE
    is something from the very center of Lebanon's political arena.
    It confirms your***create discord between the principle actors, Hizbollah, Syria and Iran*** comment.

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  15. It's that SLC to the South that's trying to topple Lebanon's government, not Iran or Hezbollah.

    Like when they murdered Hariri--with the USA's help--and got their Zionist MSM to pin the blame on Syria, which forced Syria to remove their troops from Lebanon, ahead of the pre-planned Israeli 2006 war of aggression.

    Israel's in dire need of potable water, so they're going about it the usual way; when they desire something that someone else has, they steal it.

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  16. This is interesting

    haaretz

    Lebanon's embrace of Ahmadinejad may affect military aid
    U.S. representatives renew opposition to transfer of $100 million in U.S. assistance to Lebanon in wake of visit by Iran President, Lebanese daily reports.

    "In August, two key Democrats, Representatives Nita Lowey and Howard Berman, announced they were holding up $100 million that had been approved for Lebanon's army but not yet spent. At the time, lawmakers said they were blocking U.S. funding due to a deadly border clash between Lebanon and Israel." (the attack that Israel encouraged)

    Nita Lowey and Howard Berman?
    Wondering how much money they received from the Israeli Lobby (Berman sounds like a follower of Judaism name?)

    "Lowey and Berman vehemently oppose the transfer of the funds, scheduled for next month, in light of the warm welcome with which Ahmadinejad was received in Lebanon."

    So these two democrats want to withhold funds due to the warm welcome the citizens of Lebanon gave to Ahmadinejad?

    http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-lawmakers-lebanon-s-embrace-of-ahmadinejad-may-affect-military-aid-1.319034

    Syrian leader met with Iraqi leader.

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  17. Peter are you aware of this and what are your thoughts?

    Syria orders 33 arrests over Hariri probe: general

    Syria has ordered the arrest of 33 people over false testimony given in the UN-backed probe into the assassination of Lebanese ex-premier Rafiq Hariri, a general held over the killing and his lawyers said.

    Jamil Sayyed, the former head of Lebanon's security services, said the top investigating judge in Damascus had issued arrest warrants "against judges, security officers, politicians, journalists and other Lebanese, Arab and foreign officials and individuals."

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gwUZyXkStendNfU3et8oaOT7qkEg?docId=CNG.dfc87fc9485815e74c658985462dc2ec.5e1

    The impression I get is that these people testified and implicated Syria.

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  18. James, perhaps you have a better take on the Syrian angle then I, but...... some offers can be made that are to hard to resist.

    Pen, the only source for this possible peace inducement that I can see is Debka, the mouthpiece of Mossad. Which means it is almost certainly 100% bullshit.

    Syria is still technically at war with Israel, as far as I know. And the issue has always been Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights. Syria has not budged one inch over it's demands that it be returned as a precondition of peace. I can't see that changing any time soon.

    No one believes a word Israel says now. I think Nasrallah's words that everyone is now united against Israel are ominous for them. So they are creating this whole scenario out of thin air to distract everyone (perhaps even themselves) from this.

    I agree with Peter. The western (jewish) press is defining the narrative and thereby trying to control what the issues are that we think and talk about. It doesn't matter what we think Syria might do re some non existent peace overture. The fact that we are thinking about it and not Israel's increasing isolation and therefore vulnerability is what the objective is as far as the israelis are concerned.
    I hope I'm not sounding pedantic on this!

    Thanks for the link, Peter. Agreed!

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  19. Nope you are not sounding pedantic.

    I appreciate you taking the time to explain where you are coming from.

    "The fact that we are thinking about it and not Israel's increasing isolation and therefore vulnerability is what the objective is as far as the israelis are concerned."

    I see where you are coming from though the fact of Israel's isolation is obvious or at least should be??

    But then maybe it is just me that realizes that or you that realizes that?

    Saw something over at WRH, a CAMERA meeting regarding Israel's isolation and the usual poor them, everyone picks on them...

    In attendance none other then Alan Dershowitz :(

    Another one I cannot stomache, the lies that emanate from that man!

    Of course always failing to mention anything remotely close to reality.

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  20. Thanks for that google report Penny. It is quite good!
    Basically, it seems to be a tit for tat phenomena.

    ***"By doing this, the Syrians are trying to pressure the government to change its position on the STL," said Samir al-Jisr, another deputy in Hariri's coalition, referring to the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon.***

    The STL , ***the UN probe was based on fabricated testimony aimed at implicating Syria and its supporters in Lebanon in Hariri's killing.***

    ***Damascus has consistently denied any involvement in the assassination and last month, in a stunning about-turn, Prime Minister Saad Hariri said he had been wrong to point the finger at Syria.***

    Syria is flashing a mirror back at the UN STL probe that is ongoing in Lebanon. The UN probe s utter nonesense and everyone knows it.
    Bottom line, UN probe on Syria 0, Lebanon/Hezbollah, Iran. Game, set, match.

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  21. "Basically, it seems to be a tit for tat phenomena.'

    I was getting that impression.

    btw thanks also for taking the time to clarify your take on this situation.

    with all this talk of Syria, etc.
    Pakistan has been shorted the attention it deserves, so my new post, addresses the latest

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  22. Icing on the cake Pen, with this blurb from the Angry Arab:
    ***Flash.
    Apparently there is no need to find the killers of Hariri. Robert Fisk know who they are. He today in a radio interview identified "Syrian Ba`thists" as killers of Hariri. Fisk plans to now work hard to identify the killers of Jimmy Hoffa.
    Posted by As'ad***

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  23. Hey Peter, left a comment at your place re Fisk's psychic ability.

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