Thursday, June 23, 2011

1 Dead General, A Destabilization and the long, long Energy Wars

Let's take a trip down memory lane?
Move through the present and peer into the future
That means we are covering a lot of ground!

Last year, a body washed up on the shores of the Mediterranean.
But, this wasn't just any "body"...

You can read here if you want, the article is somewhat skewed, that is being kind, and full of buzz words.
I am going to ignore that all and point to this tidbit

Last August (2010) a decomposing body was found floating in the Mediterranean Sea near the Turkish-Syrian border.



Picture and info from here

The body was of General Yuri Ivanov, deputy chief of the Russian military intelligence (Glavnoye Razvedyvateinoye Upravienie).
Ivanov was the second in command at Russia’s foreign military intelligence unit, the GRU.


Prior to showing up dead and decaying in Turkish waters he had been seen in Syria.
In Tartus, where Russia is working on that big port I have previously made mention of.


The general was last seen visiting the building site for a new Russian military base in the Syrian coastal city of Tartus, which is being expanded as a base for Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Official reports claimed he drowned while swimming, but many don't believe that the head of operations for the Russian military intelligence would go swimming without half a dozen bodyguards around him
I thought about that.
I agree.
A Russian military intelligence officer would NOT go swimming without his bodyguards in tow.
I can think of two places he may go without his bodyguards in his immediate vicinity.
One too the "restroom"
The other to have a tryst.
If anyone else has any other suggestions feel free..
My point being, this man probably did not drown. He was probably murdered.
Was he a portent? a sign of what was to come?

Coincidentally. Or not. The body washed up on the shores of Hatay, Turkey.

Digression Alert!

Hatay, Turkey is where the attacks on Syria are emanating from.
Yes, boys and girls that is what is going on, Turkish troops and likely some others "troops" or mercenaries are attempting to invade/destabilize Syria.
With the hope of drawing the population into a bloody, protracted civil war that will bring the nation to ruin. Let's hope the majority of Syrians understand this?

To recap-
We have a Russian Military Officer, high ranking, who shows up dead in the Mediterranean waters in Turkey. Though he had been last seen in Tartus, Syria. Where the Russian port expansion is taking place.

After finding the body, Turkey’s foreign ministry approached neighbouring countries for further information, with Damascus reporting that Ivanov had gone missing while on assignment in Syria.

I wonder? Who killed the General? And yes, I think it was murder.
I also wonder where did he really die?

Now here is another article, mentioning the strategic relationship between Russia and Syria. Ostensibly an "independent" view. The reality being something else completely.
The author is, oh sorry, was with the Middle East Institute.
Independence of view is not what that place is about. But, one little paragraph caught my eye.

"Russian companies have active contracts to build pipelines connecting Iraq and Syria, contracts that will summarily end if Moscow aligns with powers against Syria in the Security Council."

Pipelines connecting Iraq and Syria? This is what I touched on in yesterdays post.
Could the pipeline be connected to Russia's Southstream, and taking that further could this all work it's way eastward to China.

The Southstream pipeline is the competitor to the most expensive pipeline ever to be built, yet, the Nabucco pipeline.
As we read yesterday, Turkey has just signed on the dotted line for Nabucco.
But, Turkey has been involved with Nabucco for some time.
This article from the Tblisi Times from 2010 includes Ankara involvement.

In August 2010, the Nabucco shareholders agreed on a modification of the feeder line concept at a meeting in Ankara.
The line was modified to avoid Iran, but, this makes the line that much more costly.

“That will add a further 550 kilometres (342 miles), meaning it will measure 3,900 kilometres (2,420 miles) in total,” he said.

While the changes have not been officially confirmed by the consortium, the estimated costs are likely to be revised upwards to reflect the increased length.


I highly doubt that makes anyone happy.

Keep in mind the construction of Nabucco is not set to begin until 2012.
So there is still time to attack Iran, and reduce costs on Nabucco!

That all said, looking at the competing pipelines, Turkey has long had a vested interest in destabilizing Syria and trying to knock out the competition- Russia.
So let's take a look at the great energy game from another angle!

Now that nuclear power has been "fukushima'd" nations such as Germany are looking to alternatives. One alternative is natural gas. Russia is primed to supply Germany.
Let's call it a reshaping of the global energy landscape?

When Chancellor Angela Merkel initially said Germany would eliminate all nuclear power plants, she said most of the resulting energy deficit would be filled through increased efficiency, power from renewable sources, and a revamped electrical grid.
Switzerland decided a week before Germany to phase out its plants over the next three decades

What will fill the nuclear power gap? Natural Gas? Who is well positioned to provide that natural Gas to Germany and Europe? Russia!

This is excellent news for Russia, the second-largest natural gas producer in the world.

Russia is already Europe’s biggest gas supplier, exporting 120 billion cubic meters, or 4.2 trillion cubic feet, there in 2010, around a quarter of demand.


Making Russia even more important to Europe.
What will the NATO world army make of this? Keep reading, keep reading...

The geopolitical implications of the German nuclear phaseout are not clear.
Many analysts and officials on both sides of the Atlantic warn that Germany’s ties to Russia could spell trouble in the long run, if not because Russia is emboldened in Europe then because Germany could, at some point, find its energy interests incompatible with its Western allies’ political interests.
“The United States is attempting to extricate itself from Afghanistan and Iraq, and by the middle of the decade may be ready to assert itself in Central Europe,” wrote Stratfor, a geopolitical intelligence risk consulting firm based in Austin, Texas. “If this occurs, and Berlin’s dependency on Russian natural gas is at that point still increasing, its response to these strategic moves in its neighborhood could put Germany at odds with NATO allies.”


Uh oh!

8 comments:

  1. Off-topic


    This article today , gives a link to Political Ponerology.

    Somewhat coincidental as I just got the pdf and advised you

    http://www.redicecreations.com/article.php?id=15837


    cheers

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey aferrismoon!
    Funny how things work out?

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  3. HI PENNY IM BACK ..LOOK WHAT I FOUND...Former CIA officer questions EU motives in Syria (AND ADMITS WAHABBIS ARE POURING INTO SYRIA) http://euobserver.com/9/32544

    He added that the situation is more complicated than a simple struggle between the disenfranchised Sunni majority and the Alawite elite. "We have reports that Wahhabists [radical Sunni Islamists], who are not necessarily controlled by any state, are coming into Syria from Iraq and from Saudi Arabia to create chaos. Inside Syria, there are snipers shooting at demonstrators who are not controlled by Al-Assad but by the deep state, and other snipers who are shooting at both demonstrators and police," he said.



    ALSO SEE... Elite and Rich Funding Syria's Revolution http://americansyrians.com/syria/post/2011/06/19/Elite-Rich-Funding-Syrias-Revolution.aspx GUESS WHOS A REGULAR SPEAKER THERE AT SAS?YUP DR RADWAN ZIADEH..SEE VIDO ABOVE AND ELARN WHO DR RADWAN AND AMMAR ABDULHAMID REALLY ARE WINK


    Paltalk Leaks Expose Conspiracy Against Syria - Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ydSFYW7uX4

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  4. A timely reminder Penny. I had forgotten General Ivanov. The plot thickens.

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  5. Thanks for reminding us about Ivanov.

    - Aangirfan

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  6. Hey NYSC!

    I read that piece from the euobserver, it is a mix of spin and truth.

    There were some interesting points made, about the outside influences.
    That much is obvious.
    But the premise that they are not state sponsored is ridiculous.

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  7. chuckyman:

    Wasn;t General Ivanov an omen of what was to come.

    Every player is represented in that scenario.

    Russia, Syria, Turkey. Quite likely Israel.

    Then it goes on from there, I brought it right up to a possible future where when NATO finally goes insane, totally nuts and attacks Russia.

    While Germany is dependant on Russia's natural gas.

    What a mess!

    ReplyDelete

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