Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Syria accepts UN Peace Plan- Perhaps this is why?

UPDATE # 1 BELOW 

The Syrian government has agreed to accept a peace plan proposed by UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan, al Jazeera television quoted his spokesman as saying.

"The Syrian government has written to the joint special envoy Kofi Annan, accepting his six-point plan, endorsed by the United Nations Security Council," spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said in a statement on Tuesday.
Annan, who is in China to solicit support for the plan, considered it "an important initial step that could bring an end to the violence."

Russia has backed the former UN chief's plan, which calls for a UN-supervised ceasefire and political dialogue.




He is greeted quite amicably.

UPDATE

Annan's peace plan leaves room for Syrian Interpretation

As well as interpretation by others.

The key to the success of Kofi Annan’s Six-Point Plan unveiled today lies in what is not said in the scheme: At no point does the plan call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down or delegate power.

Even those points are gently worded. For example, Syria “should” cease troop movements toward population centres and “should” end the use of heavy weapons, and should “begin” the pullback of military concentrations. All this leaves ample room for Syrian interpretation.

As for negotiating Syria’s future political system, the Annan points call only for Syria to “commit to appoint an empowered interlocutor when invited to do so by the envoy [Mr. Annan].”
All this makes the scheme much more acceptable to Mr. al-Assad and to his allies in Moscow and Beijing, all of whom rejected the idea that Damascus was getting all the blame and the opposition militants none at all.

etc., etc.,

There is more, be sure to read at the link.

What the author points out is that what is acceptable to Syria, Russia and China is not acceptable to the opposition

The Syrian National Council and Free Syrian Army, among others, have insisted they will never talk to Mr. al-Assad, and never agree to take any steps toward ending hostilities until he’s gone.

To offset that negative reaction, the Annan Points also go easy on the opposition.
Crucially, they call for the Syrian forces to make the first move in halting the fighting – a significant concession by the Assad regime that had insisted on mutual cessation – and they do not compel the opposition to do much of anything in this regard.
They say only that commitments from the opposition to stop fighting and accept UN supervision “would be sought by the envoy.”
However, as an incentive for the opposition to make such a commitment, the plan offers incentives: specifically, a two-hour humanitarian break in government fighting each day, and the possibility of an accelerated rate of release of opposition members jailed by the government.
It just might be enough to entice a representative number of opposition people to sign up for this plan, and defer their hopes for Mr. al-Assad to step down at a later date.
Mr. Annan said Tuesday that acceptance of the plan is merely “an important initial step” that “could bring an end to the violence and the bloodshed, provide aid to the suffering, and create an environment conducive to a political dialogue that would fulfill the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people.”
The success of the plan now depends on the opposition’s acceptance and implementation of it. It’s likely that at the conference of Friends of the Syrian People, meeting Sunday in Istanbul, world powers will be pushing for the opposition to go along with it.

Will the "Friends of Syria" be pushed into going along with this peace plan?
So far I am not getting that impression.
From the latest news- Obama and Erdogan sending "non-lethal"  aid to the rebels

Communications devices that are used to conduct warfare can hardly be construed as "non-lethal"
Not when they are used in planning attacks. Which would seem to be their intended use.

14 comments:

  1. I`ll be back with more later :)

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  2. One update added. Bear with me, it is just one of those days :(

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  3. The headline in the UK accompanying this is that the UN estimates ("credible" is the word used, not proven) the death toll now at 9,000.
    Wind back to 16 March...International peace envoy Kofi Annan, meanwhile, demanded answers from President Bashar al-Assad’s regime before the U.N. Security Council re-enters the fray in a conflict which monitors now say has cost more than 9,100 lives. Which monitors?? (Al Arabiya, Pro-Assad show, ‘massacre’ mark Syria anniversary; Death toll reaches 9,000.
    So the UN accepts unnamed "monitors'" estimates. And what does CIA-CNN report today? Annan says Syria has accepted his plan to end violence: The United Nations estimates the Syrian conflict has killed more than 9,000 people; opposition activists have put the toll at more than 10,000.
    So, stand by for the UN to revise its credible estimate up to 10,000....

    And Colvin is being given an airing today again, to beef up the story..

    "Assad too damaged to be a credible leader in Syria..." Jonathan Head BBC, Istanbul today....
    As Mr Head of the BBC wrote on 30 November 2011...Turkish officials say they have given up hope that President Assad can be part of a solution, but they are pressing the various opposition groups to take care not to allow the violence to escalate into a sectarian conflict

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    1. Hey Felix-

      I saw some of those 'estimates'..didn't we get the same spin on Libya?

      I think the UN has been getting all there so called estimates from the opposition?
      I also read somewhere that a great many Syrian soldiers have died.

      Don't know the numbers, but, when I check out SANA they are always reporting on soldiers killed in the fighting.

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  4. This is like a bad dream. I can't believe Assad agreed to this nonsense. Surely he must know that Kofi Annan, the UN, NATO/US and the terrorists are all of one mind because they are all controlled by the same people and that these people and their minions always lie. How can anyone possibly profit from making deals with documented liars.

    Just when they have the upper hand, they throw it away! Unfuckingbelievable.

    Assad and the Syrian people will certainly regret this.

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    1. Hey James, I can actually get a sense of frustration from your comment.

      They still have the upperhand. They have the borders fairly secure. That is good.


      It is just a wait and see now

      Did you watch the little video. I was thinking how odd if Babr Amr was supposed to be so anti-assad (according to western media) what the heck was this fellow doing out there walking amongst the people!
      Who seemed genuinely happy to see him.

      (If it was the PM of Canada walking around, I wouldn't waste my time, because I would not be happy to see him-at all!)

      According to Israeli reports it is claimed shots were fired near Assad, no indication of that from the video?

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    2. The Russians evidently leaned heavily on Syria to get it to agree to the meeting in the first place, so I bet Russia exerted similar influence getting them to agree to the plan.

      I wouldn't be surprised if Russia delivered a message to Syria: agree to Annan's plan or we don't veto the SC resolution authorizing force.

      Notice the games going on with the 'open mic' between Medvedev and Obama as well. Imho, that's to give Russia some cover. As if the U.S. is serious about making concessions on the ABMT. Similarly, the U.S. also claims it isn't arming the militias and is pretending to hold other people back.

      I'm with James. This ends one way only. Surely Assad and the Syrians are not stupid enough to think the diplomatic route will actually work.

      I'm assuming they are playing a losing game because it buys them more time. Or, maybe the propaganda we see is actually more intense for those within Syria. Maybe Assad and the Syrians are confused and got tricked into thinking they could resolve the situation this way.

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    3. Right now I think what is going to happen next is a best guess scenario
      One thing that is clear is the west has no intention of backing off on bringing down Syria

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    4. Well, I'm becoming more confident in my predictions. There are just too many previous examples that follow this pattern for me to ignore. When was the last time the U.S. or West was stopped after they have gone this far? Once they do sanctions and use all the propaganda at their disposal and are using the CIA and CNN to destabilize the country, are calling in the U.N., etc., etc., the writing is on the wall. Likewise, as I noted previously, the writing is on the wall with the Russians--they already said they will not risk their interests by stopping a military attack.

      I WISH my prediction weren't so. I wish Russia and Syria would be able to stop the West/NATO from attacking. This isn't about taking sides--I'm just trying to figure out the truth.

      So I agree with you that the west has no intention of backing down. They are just playing the good cop right now. Hillary and the U.S. are pretending to give peace a chance and to use diplomacy but we know the attacks will continue and now the West has an excuse to implement a no-fly zone or to attack the Syrian Army. The West will say Syria is violating the agreement by attacking the terrorist who will no doubt try to draw the military in the cities, etc.

      The only question now is how exactly it will happen. My guess is the propaganda will continue and then there will be another SC authorizing Turkey, or NATO, to establish a buffer zone.

      I would imagine then we will see Syria (and possibly Iran) swing into action. They must surely know that as soon as they allow foreign military on their soil the game is up. So I expect them to stop playing the diplomatic game after the next SC resolution.

      Or who knows, maybe they won't need the SC resolution b/c of Turkey. If Turkey does some sort of unilateral buffer zone and is attacked by Syria than NATO will attack Syria without a UN resolution and this will provide cover for both the U.S. governments and the Russian and Chinese governments.

      Yeah, I think that's the way it plays out. That's my best guess. Turkey does a buffer zone then gets attacked and then war is declared.

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  5. I think more than anything, Assad is giving a signal to other leaders in the Middle East, it may help him to secure some of their backing?

    Anyway, naturally this whole sage is a ploy as today I hear on the BFBS radio that they (I can't remember the exact name of which association/group ) are asking that Assad be brought up for 'human rights violations' and charged in the International court.

    SO all they really need is for a few humanitarian aid workers to 'suddenly discover' mass graves in Syria and then the war is back on...while this is happening of course, more weapons are being smuggled into the country in readiness for the next onslaught - and slaughter in the name of 'freedom' will continue!

    Assad is being tricked for sure, a tactic to sort out the problems (for the allies) and then it's game-on again!

    Marie
    aka Marty

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    1. Hey Marie/Marty

      Mass graves...
      does it never end
      I mean we have had incubators and emails and whatever else?
      Lesbian blogger girls.
      So many psy-ops, hard to keep them all in memory?

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  6. Assad is being tricked for sure, a tactic to sort out the problems (for the allies) and then it's game-on again!

    I do not think so, you make that Assad or Arabs cannot think forward. Assad has the Iranian's who help and guide him. If Iran was to drop Assad as many Israelis MSM claim that Erdoğan has brought to the talks, Iran Mullahs will collapse. I think you'll should look at how to bring revolution to Canada or the USA not think Syrians cannot make their mind up. Syria is not tribal unlike Libya.

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    1. Anonymous 6:28

      "you make that Assad or Arabs cannot think forward"

      I am pretty sure that Assad and the Arabs can think ahead.
      (thinking that is what you mean?)

      "Syria is not tribal unlike Libya"

      The fact that Syria is not tribal isn't really that relevant to the western agenda
      If tribal interests cannot be used to cause division then religious beliefs can be used.
      And that seems to be the situation with Syria
      where sectarian violence is being created..

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    2. No Anon - read my first line ....

      "Assad is giving a signal to other leaders in the Middle East, it may help him to secure some of their backing?"

      It is precisely because Assad knows what is coming - he is using the media, just as the West does, to protect himself. I have respect for Arabs so please re-read my comment.

      I believe in fairness - I never like to take sides.
      (Arabs/Muslims/Christians/Jews/Whatever!)

      I go with my gut feelings, always!

      Marie
      aka Marty

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