Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Egypts Military adopts Turkish Model to retain power over Morsi

This article is dated  June 24th of this year, but, how much has changed in 6 weeks time?
Op-ed from the CFR

Summary: Morsi’s victory in Egypt's presidential election puts Islamists in control an office that was once the exclusive province of the military. But was Sunday's Tahrir Square celebration premature? The military's June 17 decree hedged against a Morsi win by approximating the tutelary role the Turkish military enjoyed until recently- 

The “ recently” assertion regarding Turkey  is questionable. Story for another day. For today, Egypt.
Of course, read  the article entirely at link.

"Yet despite all the tension of the last week and the historic nature of Morsi’s victory, in an odd way it seems a little too neat.

To be sure, the Officers preferred Ahmed Shafiq to Morsi. The former prime minister’s late May surge was no doubt the result of a broad effort among the remnants of the old regime, the intelligence services, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to revive the networks of the National Democratic Party. Yet, in the end, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and the rest of the military leadership determined that fixing the results in favor of Shafiq was too risky.”
The results that the head of the Supreme Presidential Election Commission, Farouk Sultan, announced on Sunday afternoon were precisely the results that both the press and the Brotherhood reported almost immediately after the elections.

So, did they fix the results in favour of Morsi? The fact that Muslim Brotherhood numbers and military numbers were the same, means nothing in particular. It was sort of questionable how it was the Muslim Brotherhood KNEW what the results were immediately after the election?  Also seems odd that alleged opposing parties would have precisely the same results. No wonder the CFR notes how "neat" this all seems.

Continuing on with the military and it’s “ace”. Not my language
It did not matter, though. Declaring Shafiq the winner despite the results was wholly unnecessary due to what the military clearly believes is its ace: the June 17 constitutional declaration.
 The timing of the decree, just as polls closed on the second day of the second round of elections, suggests that the military’s action was improvised.  As if sometime on Sunday afternoon, one of the officers turned to another and asked with alarm, “What if Morsi wins?”  It was anything but ad hoc, however.  Shortly after the fall of Mubarak, Field Marshal Tantawi asked for a translation of Turkey’s 1982 constitution, which both endows Turkish officers with wide-ranging powers to police the political arena and curtails the power of civilian leaders.  In the June 17 decree, the military hedged against a Morsi victory by approximating the tutelary role
As a result, President Morsi does not control the budget; has no foreign policy, defense, or national security function; and has been stripped of the president’s duty as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, meaning he has no control over military personnel.  In addition, having dissolved parliament in a move that has no legal basis, the SCAF now also functions as Egypt’s legislature.  Finally, the military will be able to veto articles of a new constitution.  So, for example, if the drafters of the new constitution include civilian control and parliamentary oversight of the armed forces, Field Marshal Tantawi can object, force the Constituent Assembly to review the article, and, if necessary, bring it to the Supreme Constitutional Court.  Although in the abstract, the military has set out a clear procedure for adjudicating disputes over the draft constitution, the Officers clearly expect past patterns of civil-military relations to hold sway.

The military’s June 17th constitutional declaration was predicated on a combination of the Officers’ historic role in the political system, implicit threats, and the assumption that many Egyptians who fear the Brotherhood will support the SCAF’s bid to reinforce its autonomy.
It may not work out as planned, however.  President-elect Morsi is pushing back already.  While paying homage to the Egyptian armed forces, his camp has already declared that they do not recognize the dissolution of the parliament or the legality of the military’s decree.  During the heady moments of Sunday’s celebrations in Tahrir Square, the Brotherhood vowed that Morsi would take the oath of office before the People’s Assembly.  Morsi’s supporters, the revolutionaries of the April 6th Movement, and others have vowed not to leave Tahrir Square until the actual handover of power scheduled for July 1st, recognizing it as their only leverage to hold SCAF accountable.  They are also gearing up for a battle to defeat the constitutional declaration.
Clearly, as important as the election of Mohamed Morsi may be, Egypt’s struggle to define a new political order is far from over. The SCAF has been eager to relinquish the day-to-day administration of Egypt, but it has no intention of abdicating its central role in the political system in favor of the Brothers. With Morsi’s elevation to the presidency, the Brotherhood has the symbolic advantage, but it does not have the means to impose its will on the officers.  The only likely result from this state of affairs is more uncertainty and instability.
  I am going to take you back to an old blog post

 " Egypt's military leaders say they are committed to eventually handing over power to an elected civilian administration that will abide by its international agreements."

The military then dropped the international agreements part, or the media did? But they remained firm on the civilian administration
An elected civilian administration. That doesn’t sound like a government with power. It sounds like pencil pushers and figureheads.
Then today Pentagon calls the new military men in Egypt

Top Pentagon leaders say have talked by phone with their new Egyptian counterparts and are hoping to continue the longtime military relationship between Washington and Cairo.
From where I sit, it looks like a beautiful relationship will continue.

Just a thought from earlier
News on Syria tomorrow and still hoping for the safety of Tozz.
  

9 comments:

  1. We need a truth committee. The U.S. and West have meddled in the affairs of the Middle East for too long and it's time to come clean.

    This article alleges that al-Sadat conspired with the U.S. and Israel:

    According to the Vinogradov memo (to be published by us in full in the Russian weekly Expert next Monday), Anwar al-Sadat, holder of the titles of President, Prime Minister, ASU Chairman, Chief Commander, Supreme Military Ruler, entered into conspiracy with the Israelis, betrayed his ally Syria, condemned the Syrian army to destruction and Damascus to bombardment, allowed General Sharon’s tanks to cross without hindrance to the western bank of the Suez Canal, and actually planned a defeat of the Egyptian troops in the October War. Egyptian soldiers and officers bravely and successfully fought the Israeli enemy – too successfully for Sadat’s liking as he began the war in order to allow for the US comeback to the Middle East.

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    1. WWM: thanks for the link
      and FYI Felix left you some info back in another post

      http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2012/07/syria-machinations-assassinations-messy.html

      last comment. Don't want you to miss it

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    2. Thanks Felix. Scott Lucas looks like he's trying out as one of the Three Amigos.

      He actually bears a resemblance to Ned played by Martin Short.

      And my computer just froze up completely going to "Enduring America," which is a creepy sounding name for a blog. Or maybe crappy is the word I'm looking for. From my brief and last visit to his blog I see he too is "breaking" news about Syria.

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    3. And that's Angry Arab on piano and Josh Landis dancing. Josh has recently taken over Juan Cole's role who took over for Chevy Chase.

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    4. He looks a bit sinister. I think if Tarantino had known about him, he could have had a leading part in Reservoir Dogs.
      His blog is eerily similar to the creepy Al-Jazeera daily blog with its dubious YouTube links.

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  2. Hi Penny
    Came across this which I thought you would like .
    I have copied the first 3 paragraphs and the last 4
    complete with link to article from Pravda.

    Link : http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/14-08-2012/121892-un_rogue_states-0/

    Text: Historic Hypocrisy: UN-Backed Rogue States Plan Syria's Slaughter
    14.08.2012
    by Felicity Arbuthnot

    "The greatest crime since World War II has been U.S. foreign policy."

    (Former US Attorney General, Ramsey Clark.)

    On the 4th of May 2012, UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, chaired a Security Council meeting, "Highlighting the Changing Nature, Character and Scourge of Terrorism." (i) This followed a ministerial-level meeting on "threats to international peace and security posed by terrorism."

    Ban Ki-moon's opening address underlined the importance of unity in tackling the problem, "By working together - from strengthening law enforcement to tackling the underlying drivers of extremism - we can greatly reduce this major threat to peace and security," he stated......

    (I)n the same article, eminent British-based cardiac surgeon, Fawaz Akhras, President Assad's father in law, made a similar point. "When the London riots burst out, Mr. Cameron said he would bring the army out, now would you compare (the riots) to Homs? What would you do? Just watch them killing? There is a responsibility to ensure the security of your people." In Professor Akhras's profession, he is used to dealing with people who are incapacitated, of course.

    As I write, I do so where, because of the Olympics, not a war, we have ground to air missiles on domestic buildings, war ships with an array of armaments at all venues, 20,000 soldiers, armed police. Any of the lethal weaponry deployed in arguably Britain's most populated region which, if used, could wipe thousands of us out.

    We are residents, not insurgents. We are not in a war zone, but we are potential Olympic cannon fodder; collateral damage. And the US-UK axis and others fund terrorists and blame Syria's government.

    To end where this started, mad, bad and very dangerous to know.

    Oh, and by the way, in 1980, the US boycotted the Moscow Olympics because the then USSR had invaded and occupied Afghanistan. Think about it.

    The middle is worth reading too
    Cheers
    KamNam

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    Replies
    1. Amazing isn't it KamNam?

      How these lies spread by the so called "leaders", who are really psycopaths that have come to power by questionable means, are disseminated out into the public awareness via the compliant media and accepted by the masses as reality

      Perception management!

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    2. Hi Penny
      Yes perception Management also Manufactured Reality to make the pieces fit a per-configured reality of the few to control the rest.

      In short if you take away or somehow make unstable the 3 basic needs of Food Shelter and Safety it is a lot easier to control the many as they are too preoccupied with basic survival to worry too much what is happening around them. There are tell tale signs all over the world about abuses of power in both minor and major ways that give us cause to prick up our ears and say Whisky Tango Foxtrot. More on that later I'm putting together a world view piece, slowly mostly to give me a clear picture of whats going on its to big just to think it in a few moments.

      Cheers
      KamNam

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  3. Almost forgot Marie, LVB left something for you to comment on also

    http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2012/08/hillary-in-turkey-for-talks-us.html#comment-form

    second to last comment

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