Friday, February 1, 2013

Israel's strike on Syria: Practice runs for Iran and target softening

Let’s talk about the attack undertaken by Israel on Syria.
What exactly happened is unclear. Did Israel strike once or twice?
Having given this quite a lot of thought over the past day, based on the many news stories in the main stream I do think Israel made two hits.
But, I do not believe for a moment there was any convoy of anti-aircraft missiles being delivered to Lebanon from Syria. That aspect seems farfetched. It seems to work best as a cover story.
There are even conflicting reports on who really struck the alleged convoy.
Syrian Rebels 'Steal' Credit from Israel for Attack

Keeping in mind, Syria’s ‘rebels’ have not been known for their honesty, only for their brutality, so is there any reason to think this truth? By making these claims the NATO mercs appear to be muddying the waters, to get people discussing whether it was Israel or the rebels that attacked this convoy. I am not buying the convoy story, I  just don’t think that specific part of the narrative is true.
It’s to tidy. It fits too well into the usual Israeli propaganda regarding Lebanon. It feels as if Israel is framing a future narrative reference.

Why would Syria ship out, Russian-made SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles, at this time?
Russia could certainly provide these armaments to Lebanon directly if they so choose.
So, that part of this event, does not sit right with me

What if this attack on the alleged convoy was instead a dry run for an attack on Iran?
This seems plausible

Israel added another layer to the Middle East puzzle with airstrikes Wednesday on what was said by Western sources to be a Syrian convoy
Said to be, but, as stated , not likely a convoy of anything of the sort. The convoy story provides cover, or excuse to the dry run attack on Damascus
“One way to look at the Israeli attack is as a dry run for a possible airstrike against Iran’s nuclear facilities”

The ease with which the Israelis were able to carry out an apparently undetected, brazen, below-the-radar operation inside Syria  underlined that while Assad’s army and rebels cruelly flail away at each other, Egyptians fret about civil war, and Jordanians and Lebanese confront their own political uncertainties, Israel retains a huge military advantage over any potential foes including Iran.
Moreover, Israel has once again clearly demonstrated to its neighbours, and to the United States, that it will do what it thinks it must any time it believes it is threatened.

This is where Israel benefits from the placement of Islamists in former secular nations.
Israel can ‘believe’ it is threatened all the time. Thereby justifying all sorts of attacks in neighbouring countries. Land and resource theft, plunder. The usual sort of imperialistic kind of stuff.

Israel’s next target might be Iran’s nuclear sites
 ‘there may be more dry runs over Damascus to prepare Israeli pilots for a more complicated operation against Iran’

There might just be more dry runs. I am not so sure about that, I guess it depends on the reaction of other interested countries.

 Though the author of this piece  also questions if this first strike may just be the prelude.
You can and should read the article entirely. The author recounts the initial story of the convoy attack and covers how it is we go from convoy to attack on research centre

Unnamed "regional security officials" quoted by the Associated Press claimed that the target of the attack was a convoy ......

Subsequently, Syrian state television reported that a "military research center" had been struck not far from the capital Damascus
The US was informed ahead of the attack.

Was the convoy story the distraction ahead of the attack in Damascus? I think so.

It is hard to tell how likely a regional war is in the near future, but it is clear that the Israeli operation on Tuesday night was a major development.

A development? A word that means nothing and so many things when used in this context.

Now onto the research centre in Damascus.
This was likely the target that was most certainly hit by Israel.
Targeting the research centre would be good preparation for a dry run on Iran.
Targeting the research centre would also help to soften targets for NATO’s mercs, targets that they have been unsucessfully attacking for months now


RT had reported this yesterday, linked here

“It finally makes sense because the rebels or as they like to call themselves the revolutionaries, they have been attacking air defense bases near Damascus for the past seven months,” Dr Ali Mohamad, editor in chief of the Syria Tribune news website told RT.
And Israel just helped the cause.





I mentioned this in the comments section yesterday
BBC interviewing Al Nusra terrorists: An exclusive sales pitch no less
BBC in rebel held territory promoting Al Nusra as the saviours of the Syrians
FSA bad cop to Al Nusra good cop
Which all may require future intervention
How ‘poignant’. (facetious)


Of course Al Nusra front is aiming to establish an Islamist state in Syria.
How very fortunate for Israel and NATO.
Who can then wave boogey men at dumbed down western audiences.
Sigh.
As always share your thoughts

ON LAST ITEM

The embassy attack in Turkey
 Police: Suicide bombing at entrance to U.S. Embassy in Turkish capital, 2 dead [i smell a kosher false flag] 

Thanks SAJ!
Read all the other goodies SAJ and another commenter left in the previous post

I got out my crystal ball... LOL. Taking a guess to a query at MoA as to who will get the blame
My response?
"The Kurds?
Syria?
Or the Kurds in Syria?
Which means Turkey will have to 'retaliate'
And it is a good thing those patriot missile batteries are present and ready to go, right?
If I had to guess......"


 

12 comments:

  1. I too agree that the convoy story is likely not true. Mostly because it supports a weak argument that they were "enforcing" a UN resolution prohibiting arms transfers to Lebanon (although Israel has no right to "enforce" UN resolutions like this). So the cover story gives Israel another justification, in addition to the imminent wmd threat angle.

    "Why would Syria ship out, Russian-made SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles, at this time?
    Russia could certainly provide these armaments to Lebanon directly if they so choose."

    Russia could, but Syria or Lebanon would be foolish to rely on Russia. Russia is not to be trusted.

    Russia has refused to deliver the best missiles and best jet planes to Syria (and Lebanon by extension)! Russia has broken contracts with Syria to supply this much needed defense! In fact, it seems to be Iran that is rushing military aid to Syria.

    The one report about Russia fulfilling some of its contractual obligations vis a vis Syria, which you pointed out, about the Iskanders, is suspect (reported by Debka, not confirmed by either Syria or Russia). Even if it were true, it's too little too late. If Russia were sincere about defending Syria and the principle of sovereignty it would have fulfilled its contracts with Syria and would not be hiding this fact. It would openly be arming Syria as the U.S. would openly arm Israel if it were facing a similar threat. The U.S. would rush new arms to Israel without a new contract, or would sign a new contract, it certainly wouldn't renege on existing contracts.

    I would also be very leery about having Russians manning air defenses in Syria, if I were Syrian.

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    1. "I too agree that the convoy story is likely not true. Mostly because it supports a weak argument that they were "enforcing" a UN resolution prohibiting arms transfers to Lebanon (although Israel has no right to "enforce" UN resolutions like this). So the cover story gives Israel another justification, in addition to the imminent wmd threat angle."

      keeping in mind when the convoy story first broke the claim was that it was a chemical weapons convoy, but, that narrative was quickly discarded because it would have been to easy to show as phony.

      Actually I have had two stories regarding the Iskander, here neither from DEBKA, one from the Guardian in the UK

      The point I was making was there it makes no sense for Syria to ship out anti aircraft missiles at this time
      They need them
      and Russia can provide them to Lebanon, Lebanon does not need Syria
      Recall Russia flew into Lebanon and picked up Syrians who wished to leave
      Therefore I would think that Lebanon can receive such weapons via their own coastline if necessary
      Therefore the everchanging convoy story is not credible

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    2. Thanks for the reminder that more than Debka picked up the stories. But from what I remember these MSM stories were reporting the Debka report and then claimed that it was "unconfirmed" or something. Again, if this were really happening then I see no reason for Russia not to confirm it. Why doesn't Lavrov fly to Syria and meet with Assad and announce the transfer? Russia and Syria should loudly be advertising any arms transfers because these are legal and will act as a deterrent. There is almost no purpose in secretly transferring weapons (especially since Russia has already refused to transfer the most important weapons). As with the PR efforts that should be done at the UN, Russia and Syria need to lay the diplomatic ground by loudly standing up for their rights.

      I disagree about the motive for Syria to ship weapons to Lebanon.

      I'm only an armchair military analyst but makes sense to spread out the defenses. More opportunities to hit an incoming jet and to make it harder for attackers to take out air defenses. Also, it get them closer to Israel and buys them a little bit more time. But Israel is so close to Damascus a jet can get there in how long? Minutes, eh?

      Plus, it's in Syria's best interest to bring Lebanon and Iran into this war. They need all the the help they can get. Plus, Syria would want to get the Arab public opinion on its side.

      As I threw out before, if I were a Syrian general I would be transferring some anti aircraft and defenses to the South. I would advocate an attack if I were a Syrian General. I would directly attack Turkey and Jordan as best as possible. I would send all tank and infantry I could into both countries. I would leave 1/4 of the strength or so to defend against Israel/U.S. from the South/Med. I would use Hizbullah to defend against and Israeli land invasion and engage in guerrilla war. They should be heavily mining the Golan and the approaches, etc. Hizbullah should be digging in.

      Then Syria should try to decapitate Turkey and/or Jordan.

      I've said all along the final war is inevitable. The West is coming to destroy the Syrian state, Syrian infrastructure, and especially the Syrian military. They may as well use the military to strike back before it is destroyed. This will punish the warmongers as much as possible and leave Syria in a better position to fight an insurgency against the Western puppets that will take Syria over.

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  2. Who are the Al Nusra front?

    Bogeyman is right Penny.

    All these factions have been created by the West. It's all part of the story. Why would they honestly share their internal divisions in the press? All the iterations of rebel groups and the claimed infighting is likely faked. They probably always simply had a core group of actors that they hired to play rebel. They probably have a few Syrians working logistics and doing terrorist attacks. But I'm almost certain the command and control is completely in Western hands.

    These stories about rebel military troops battling Syrian forces is likely faked. In the last thread I left a link to recent photographs of a street battle, where rebels are supposedly attacking a tank. BS. It just looks fake. Just like when Tyler Hicks filmed a similar attack on tanks. Total BS. You can tell just by looking at it.

    Same thing with the images of tanks being hit. Same thing with the images of massive destruction of cities, etc. They are simply creating the impression of massive territory controlled by rebels. They probably control nothing and simply engage in cat and mouse terrorism.

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    1. Why would they honestly share their internal divisions in the press?

      For perception management purposes
      Just like that BBC video

      Delete
  3. I am convinced Syria stood down and let the attack happen, there is more capital to be made by being a victim rather try to attack and fail, also more intelligence can be gathered. I am sure that Iranian radar as well as Syria and Russian picked the Israeli jets approaching. Israel and it's western allies did not expect the response of Syria to go to the UN and promise retaliation. They thought it would be status quo again no noise and Syria just absorbs and be humiliated. This will be the last time Israel will penetrate Syrian airspace, if it manages to do again then the Russian and Iranian radar is just not up to scratch. Let's wait and see what Ziad Fadel of SyrianPerpective has to say.

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  4. Be interested to hear LVB's take on this (or other knowledgeable source):

    How did Israel get past Syrian defenses? Was there secret technology at play?

    I have a suspicion. Most likely Russian jets were active around the time of the Israeli strike. Debka claims a Russian jet crossed the Sinai:

    "Debka.com also reported that a Russian MiG-31 Foxhound interceptor (fighter) jet "had crossed over Sinai Wednesday [January 30, 2013] in the direction of Israel. It veered west over the Mediterranean after encountering an Israeli warning not to intrude into its air space and continued flying over Lebanon."

    The Israeli Defence Ministry hasn't confirmed nor denied if they would have destroyed the Russian aircraft had crossed into Israeli airspace.

    If the MiG had, the Russians would technically had been at war with the State of Israel." http://www.examiner.com/article/2-000-russian-marines-off-the-coast-of-israel-syria

    Also, Russia was conducting the most extensive "joint" naval operations since the Cold War, outside its waters, and so I assume its fighter jets were active and probably the Admiral Kuznetsov was active as well, despite some intentional confusion around that point.

    So did Syria think the Israeli planes were Russian? Did they squawk like Russian planes? Did the Syrians share signals with the Russians which 'fell into' the hands of the Israelis?

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    1. WWM; regarding squawking code

      it would be more probable that the Israeli planes squawked Syrian code, if there was a stolen code issue it seems more likely it would be with Syrian Army code

      Delete
  5. 'The ease with which the Israelis were able to carry out an apparently undetected, brazen, below-the-radar operation inside Syria underlined that while Assad’s army and rebels cruelly flail away at each other, Egyptians fret about civil war, and Jordanians and Lebanese confront their own political uncertainties, Israel retains a huge military advantage over any potential foes including Iran.'

    notice that israel alone is reasonably trouble free while its neighbours are not....the jihadis attack everyone except israel

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    1. "notice that israel alone is reasonably trouble free "

      well that is just a coincidence... brian ;)
      facetious

      Delete
  6. Penny, I thought the same thing about the American Embassy attack being the usual false flag Israeli terrorism. However, I'm wondering if in this case, if it wasn't organic outrage against Erdogen's crypto-servility to Israel and the US. Erdogan is tarting out his country and its people to the interests of both of these puppeteers, by putting missiles on the Syrian border, launching mortar strikes against Syria and even providing the terrorist mercenaries in Syria with logistical support. Then also don't forget the hat-in-hand rubbish that Erdogan responded with, after Israel attacked and murdered Turkish citizens on the Mavi Mamara.

    The Turkish citizens don't forget any of this, and many of them support and maintain a relationship with their Syrian counterparts that goes back eons. So it is possible that there would be elements within Turkey who've had enough of Erdogan selling out his country and people. After Israel's illegal and unjustified stealth attack on Syria yesterday, it is in the realm of possibility that the actions taken against the US Embassy may have been some sort of a retaliation against Western interests. There's so much subterfuge that it's worth examining every possible angle.

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    1. Hey HHQ:

      the comment regarding Israeli false flag belonged to another commenter in a previous post.

      Though it seems credible
      I notice the narrative may be moving along to bring in the Kurds..
      will that happen or not, I don't know
      One thing though?
      How did they identify the perpetrator so fast
      Would he have been in bits and pieces?
      Makes me wonder?
      Apparently there is camera footage, but, that doesn't mean anything?
      I mean there is footage of Atta at an airport, but, that don't put him on a plane.
      You know what I mean?

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