Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Syria: Precariously balanced- Which way will it go? Updated

Some of the latest and some of it is bring you all up to date on events from last week.
 Lots of ground to cover today, so let's get started!


 Coinciding, with the public ousting arrest and eviction of a diplomat aka CIA agent from Russia today  We also have the visit/meeting taking place between Erdogan (Turkey) and Obama,  coming hot on the heels of that obvious false flag car bombing. 
False Flag to frame Syria: An attack on one NATO nation is an attack on all NATO nations?
 Pt2: False Flag to Frame Syria. NATO intervention?

 The UN resolution I made mention of last week,Qatar proposes condemnation of Syria at UN General Assembly, is being voted on today. Finally, the town near Jordan the Syrian Army was advancing, Syrian troops push down strategic highway towards Jordan , on has been taken by Syrian Army.

Let's talk Erdogan & Obama:
The linked article suggests that Erdogan has an agenda of his own. He most likely does, but, will only be allowed to play out his agenda as long as it fits into the bigger agenda. He can go no farther then his NATO masters will allow.
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters and lawmakers at the parliament in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, May 14, 2013. (AP Photo)
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters and lawmakers at the parliament in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, May 14, 2013

“Turkey has thrown its weight heavily behind the two-year uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, allowing the rebels to organise on its soil and sheltering 400,000 refugees.

Of course Syria will be our main topic ... We will draw a roadmap. Turkey has been damaged more than any other country," Erdogan told reporters before boarding his plane to Washington.

Washington sees Turkey, which shares a 900 km border with Syria and has NATO's second-largest army, as key to planning for a post-Assad Syria and is expected to push for Erdogan's support in arranging a proposed peace conference also backed by Moscow”

Turkey has a very large military. I was unaware of that.
- The US is going to push Turkey into supporting the peace conference backed by Moscow?
I don't think so. I suspect that is for public consumption.
“Erdogan and Obama will discuss a host of other regional issues, from Turkey's thawing relations with Israel to its energy deals with Iraq, as well as the division of Cyprus, split between a Turkish north and Greek Cypriot south since 1974"

The thaw between Israel and Turkey;
very important to taking Syria down. As has been mentioned on multiple occasions at this blog. The link will take you back to the latest and the previous posts on Israel/Turkey kiss and makeup

The division of Cyprus: Recall my 3 part post on how beneficial the destruction of Cyprus was to Turkey.   Access to all 3 parts available at link above. For those unfamiliar.

 Making Cyprus dependent on Turkey. Cypriots losing control of their own future, for Turkey’s benefit. A gift from NATO, tied with ribbon. 

“Turkey is not the deferential U.S. ally it once was, its long-standing alignment with Washington has eroded under the decade-old leadership of Erdogan, who has carved out an increasingly assertive and independent role on the world stage.”

Turkey is still the deferential US ally, lackey, it has always been-

It seems the puzzle pieces are coming together to give us the full picture
I don't like it  Turkey: US Imperial Tool

                                                      NATO bases in Turkey

 Turkey's a NATO country. It's a reliable imperial partner. It has its own regional ambitions. It's Washington's lead attack dog against Syria.

The aftermath of Saturday's Reyhanli's bombings bears watching. Turkey blamed Syria. It did so straightaway. No evidence whatever proves it. Accusations don't wash.

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's heading to Washington. On May 16, he and Obama will meet. Syria tops the agenda. Perhaps war plans will be discussed. Maybe they'll be finalized. Obama's been tiptoeing toward it incrementally
War plans will be discussed. They may be finalized. Before we go there let's update first on the UN vote
 The Qatari resolution, mentioned last week and relinked at the beginning of the post, is being voted on in the General Assembly today. The resolution is expected to pass amongst this group, albeit with a smaller approval then a general assembly resolution last year.

“The resolution will not have as much support as the assembly's previous resolution last August”

Last year their were 133 supportive votes. This year the yes votes will fall to as low as 100.
Keep in mind this is a General Assembly vote, not a security council vote.  

Russia, China and an increasing number of nations will oppose this general assembly resolution.
I don't think that will stop NATO from using this vote for spin purposes. Not at this time.

Recall the town that Syrian Army was attempting to retake? They did successfully capture the town retaking it from the NATO mercs.   Syrian Troops Take Full Control of Strategic Town

Prior to Syrian  Army's move on the town, leaflets were dropped. 
The State Department issued one of their typical hypocritical condemnations 

 We are deeply concerned by reports that the Assad regime has begun dropping leaflets over Qusayr.........etc., etc.,
Yes, the US State department is “deeply concerned". So concerned they have armed and supported the mercs to kill Syrians.

Also, in the news, the rebels and Syrian Army are fighting around a prison in Aleppo
Of course the rebels detonated two car bombs to kick start the attack. Yup car bombs. 

Standard for NATO’s mercs. Just like in Turkey over the weekend.

Syrian rebels have detonated two car bombs outside the main prison in the northern city of Aleppo and are trying to storm the facility, where hundreds of regime opponents are believed to be held.

The rebels are trying to get incarcerated fighters out to pick up where they left off.
Indicating, at least to me, the NATO mercs are desperate for fighters. Right now.

 Activists say Syrian rebels have detonated two car bombs outside the main prison in the northern city of Aleppo. (File photo: Retuers)

 OK, here is where I explain my suspicions about what is going to go on and what might happen:

Turkey will attack Syria , some excuse will be given. “Retaliation” for some alleged attack, possibly even the most recent car bombings. Israel will participate, along with Turkey. This is a scenario that has been put forth on the blog previously and in my estimation it still seems the most sensible.

Bearing in mind that  UN peacekeepers have not been being relocated away from Golan for no good reason.- The attack will begin initially without a no fly zone. NATO will not bother with the UN and when the time is right they will set up the no fly zone, to protect their NATO ally (Turkey) 
Unless cooler heads prevail. 
As of right now, I am not seeing that.
Israel, (don't buy the gatekeeper spin about Israel's fretting, Israel is not fretting, Israel is and has been actively involved in destroying Syria from the get go) Qatar, Turkey, the US, SA, NATO etc., all have way to much at stake here to let Syria stay intact.

And, I suspect they are all a bit desperate. Syria has been cleaning house of NATO mercs. 
Forcing the tyrannical hand of NATO imperialists to act quickly or not at all
From this desperation comes danger
Way back I explained how strategically significant Syria was in the whole big picture of geopolitics and geostrategic positioning and control/denial of resources. I used the word the fulcrum, on which world peace balances. I don't think it was to dramatic.
If Turkey and Israel strike, the region will go, I have said this before.

Iran. Lebanon. All of it. 
 Unless cooler heads prevail. 
The one glitch in this all is the domestic political situation in the US. It could give the Obama administration pause for thought. Or the whole Benghazi, IRS scandal could result in the US using Syria as a distraction.
Lots of if, and, buts and maybe's but..not being privy to the inner workings of the evil ones all I can do is make my best deduction based on limited info at hand

What do you all say? 

Additional  Worthy Reading:
Europe and the Politics Of Syrian Oil
 Rebels involved in providing Syrian Oil to EU. Kurdish involvement. Turkey and more...
Closing paragraph:
 Will Qatar, Turkey or France take the responsibility of collecting the Syrian oil-revenue funds in order to distribute them to the opposition? Analysts say that the involvement of the French in particular and their European partners in the Syrian oil sector, in the name of supporting the opposition, confirms that theyw ant to maintain their share of Syrian oil in the future.

Internet down in Syria today, external connectivity unavailable earlier today reports were that internal connectivity was available. Perhaps the cannibalistic rebel was the reason for this?

Internet traffic to and from Syria, a country engulfed by civil war, again came to a halt on Wednesday, according to Internet monitoring company Renesys

“It may be the case that the Internet is still online in Syria,” Cowie said. But there is no way to tell. “We can’t reach them and they can’t reach us,” he said.

Israel Hints at New Strikes, Warning Syria Not to Hit Back

WASHINGTON – A senior Israeli official signaled on Wednesday that Israel was considering further military strikes on Syria to stop the transfer of advanced weapons to Islamic militants, and he warned the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, that his government would face crippling consequences if it retaliated against Israel.
 And so it goes................


  1. Yes, it is long and yes it took me hours
    My gut tells me we are at the precipice
    As always I want to be wrong and will be pleased if I am
    Instead, after reading, ordering contemplating and writing all that I find myself feeling on edge.
    Please read and share some relevant thoughts

    1. It depends upon how much damage ZATO is willing to see to Turkey and Israel. I doubt Israel would survive. It's too small and Iran has a lot it can do. Then there's Hezbollah.

      I would imagine the question is whether ZATO thinks a small attack would get a strong response. They might try another Israeli attack and add something from Turkey. But Putin has probably reminded those two countries of how they would be committing suicide for Western interests. Why do it? Turkey's words have been a thousand times stronger than her actions.

      The other thing is that would Turkey or Israel want to continue the attack after facing the inevitable losses on their sides? Calls from Russia for peace would be pretty tempting after you lose a couple of dams and who knows what else. It's a safe bet that some pretty serious pain would be delivered after even just a few jets attacked. Would the Turkish military continue to commit suicide for an unpopular cause with an unpopular leader?


    2. Paul you make many good points Turkey has talked way tougher then they have demonstrated

      I generally judge actions over words

      As for the Turkish military...... IMO they are not controlled by Turkey
      That military belongs to NATO

    3. The Turkish military is generally considered to be large but not strong. The strong stuff is from NATO on Turkish territory. I would not take it as a given that Erdoghan would survive a major escalation for more than a few days. The Turkish military is not really supportive of this stupidity.

      By the way, if ZATO had wanted to attack, they perhaps should have done so a few months ago. The Russian fleet is close, the insurgents have been getting crushed for the last four months or so, and Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian military have generally been getting their act together on all fronts. So the damage that would occur to Turkey and Israel is going up every day - and the hysteria in their media illustrates this.


  2. A likely story-
    Deadly Benghazi blast caused by fisherman's explosives
    So that little drama will hopefully now fade away.

    Another scoop from Debbie saying how tough Russia is-
    Putin again warns Netanyahu hands off Syria
    This is being passed on by the AFP news service as actuality rather than just Mossad-Debbie's fancy. For example-,-raises-Syria-arms-issue

    In a similar vein the previous reports of Putin getting all manly and bitch-slapping poor Bibi (over the phone) all stemmed from another Debka 'special report'
    That was laundered by Reuters and then passed around the world as 'news'.

    Russia has made a big splash about America's spying but it has not made any direct condemnation of Israel regarding the Damascus bombing. Unless I hear the words coming out of Lavrov or Putin's mouths I don't believe anything that is reported relating to Russia. All the stuff going around about missiles is just hot air courtesy of Debbie and friends in Mossad.

    Sorry for rambling off-topic Penny.

    1. You can ramble
      But, then you have to put up with me being contrary

      Talk is cheap. It is actions that speak the loudest

      Not one person involved in this whole situations has spoken anything remotely close to reality
      the US has claimed they were just aiding rebels with 'humanitarian' support
      Have they?
      Israel is not involved at all.. they like assad
      Or so the media claims and many Israel politicos etc
      That isn't true

      Turkey "has been supporting the rebels"... no explanation given
      Whatever you want that to be

      As for Russia: no one is going to ever say publiclly what they are involved in
      Not actually. Not truthfully
      Russia has said all arms they are delivering to Syria are in fulfillment of old contracts
      do you believe that?
      I don't
      The fact that Syria is standing after more then two years speaks volumes to me about the fact that there is outside support
      Don't expect Lavrov or Putin to be open anymore then Obama or Erdogan
      It's not realistic
      It isn't going to happen

    2. That's fine, but why is Israel building-up Russia as the tough guy? It's not so much Russia playing it canny that bugs me but rather its that Israel is the one building them up.

    3. I wonder if it's so they can demonize them down the road?

    4. "I wonder if it's so they can demonize them down the road?"

      Well, you know, Putin was Hitler's stashed away grandson (2015 or 2016 Haaretz headline) ;) Israel was the one who most of Yeltsin's oligarch government sold its soul to, and who would lose the most if the current Russian government has managed to bin those zionist shackles. As the zionist media is 100% condemning of Russia, always, like it is of Iran, I suspect Russia may not be exactly what the zionists want right now. As for the other western fascists, they don't like new rivals and having to share.

      вот так

  3. UN warning of Assad escalating...just as rebels losing key towns...

    With US media reporting the rebels are now countering and trying to retake town: Syria opposition says rebels vying to retake key cities and supply routes east, south of Damascus

    Big coincidence: Israel is now warning of more Syria strikes in the Turkish tango (as the net goes down). Israel Says Assad shouldn't respond.\

    Conclusion: Assad must be wiping the floor of the rebels

    Iran hardliners called for Rafsanjani to be banned form elections (recall Israel said it would strike after the elections)

    US general was in Lebanon last week coordinating; US is "brokering" the maritime deal to demarcate the fields (as Lebanon takes them to auction)

    Rumor that the Israeli Turkish apology was about a base for Iran transit

    Israel just hosted Azeri Foreign Minister

    Iran arrests Azeri nationals

    Azerbaijan has started military exercises near its mainly Armenian-populated breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Turkish PKK withdrawal/truce may be soley about setting the table for the Kurd breakaway
    Turkey's state-run TPAO joins with Exxon, Iraqi Kurds in oil exploration

    Iraq sectarian escalation more priming for the break

    1. thanks for all the links

      let's see: Israel would want to use a base in Turkey to bomb Iran? I can see that.

      "Iraq sectarian escalation more priming for the break" The destabilization and final splitting up attempt is on, definitely.

      "With US media reporting the rebels are now countering and trying to retake town: Syria opposition says rebels vying to retake key cities and supply routes east, south of Damascus

      Wouldn't an Israeli strike help that cause along?

      thanks for leaving so much great stuff :)

  4. As the Israelis report incoming fire to Golan
    Two projectiles fired from Syria hit the Israeli-occupied Mount Hermon on Wednesday morning but did not cause damage or injuries, an Israeli army spokeswoman told AFP

  5. Israel is trying to commit suicide. I believe if a war breaks out, they will be the first ones to get wiped out.

    1. The latest threats from israel as reported by the NYT is probably aimed at Russia. It's a reminder of Kerry's threat to turn Syria into complete chaos and for the same purpose - to hurry Russia into pressuring Syria to start negotiations - negotiations they (Russia and Syria) are in no hurry to start because they don't need them ..... unlike israel and the rest of that bunch of criminals.

      It makes sense, as you say, Pen, that the next attack, if it should come, will come from Turkey. It's just like israel to push Turkey out into the traffic to see what happens while staying safe themselves while talking tough and providing a distraction from where the attack might come from. Putin has warned israel but perhaps he hasn't explicitly warned Turkey.
      I'm more convinced israel cannot afford a counter attack.

    2. Hey James I was thinking this weekend is Victoria day and Memorial day weekend..
      Much of the world will be busily watching fireworks.. it seems a fitting time to get something kicked of in the ME?

      A counter attack on Israel would be very dangerous for masses of Israeli's but since when has that ever bothered their leadership?

    3. Anonymous

      "Israel is trying to commit suicide. I believe if a war breaks out, they will be the first ones to get wiped out"

      Almost as if the leadership is willing to make that sacrifice..

    4. I have no doubt the Zionist leadership (the bankers) are willing to make that sacrifice. But not yet. They will sacrifice israel, the jewel in their crown, in a gambit to take control of much more territory (i.e. control of world govt). But israel is no mere pawn in a game of chess. It is a much more valuable piece and will mean loss of the game if the gambit does not pay off. So israel needs to be kept safe until the right moment. They need complete control of the muslim world, at the very least, first before they can launch WW3 - Muslim Vs Christian war. The loss of israel will be the gambit to get that going in earnest. Until that time israel needs to be cosily protected.

  6. Penny

    You did a nice job of bringing things together with this post - thanks.

    One of the things probably complicating things for Bibi's boytoy, Erdogan, is that Russia is Turkey's largest trading partner, or was last time I checked. While Turkey is in NATO, they are shunned full EU membership, but are welcomed as trading partners by Russia. That must have made some dents in the Turkish leadership - not Erdogan and his quislings, but other parts of the Turkish establishment. Turkey is politically aligned with the western fascists, yet is economically tied more to those countries the western fascists want to destroy.

    So if Turkey attacks Syria, and Russia is being straight about their commitment there, and sanctions Turkey, it could cause Turkey economic hardship. There will have to be some serious splits in the Turkish establishment over that. Erdogan & co. may have their own agenda, but they are playing right into zionist hands, the same as the old Turkish military rulers before Erdogan's party got in. Russia being straight about Syria could break Erdogan's Turkey.

    To me, the real determining factor in whether there will be an escalation of the war, now that Israel's mercs are routed, is Russia and China. I think they now have the clout to prevent it. This raises questions about whether they want to, and why, if not.

    вот так

    1. "You did a nice job of bringing things together with this post - thanks."

      thanks for appreciating the work, seriously, if not for appreciation this is a thankless task

      Been thinking about the cuban missile crisis, not sure why
      But specifically about the under mentioned role of Turkey and the placement of Jupiter missiles

      I don't know why, but, this incident has been rolling through my head?

  7. ' A senior Israeli official signaled on Wednesday that Israel was considering further military strikes on Syria to stop the transfer of advanced weapons to Islamic militants, and he warned the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, that his government would face crippling consequences if it retaliated against Israel.;

    what about israel arming islamic militants? and allowing FSA to kidnap UN personnel in Golan..

    1. Hey brian, that's ok, because it is Israel (facetious with eyes rolling)
      Israel is out of control

  8. More Israeli lies:

    Evidence of chemical attack allegedly found in Syria - media

    Did Judith Miller get a job at the BBC?

    вот так

    1. Is there any Russian media not in the grip of the Zionist cabal?

      I was listening to a 'Voice of Russia' interview with Mimi Al Laham and it was exactly like listening to the BBC. Also, it seems to me, RT has moved significantly towards the 'mainstream' in the past few months.

    2. bot tak: Judith Miller, now there is a name I have not heard in ages

      Freethinker; all media is corporate media but is Voice of Russia run by the usual persons?

    3. Penny and freethinker

      VOR fluctuates quite a bit in their coverage of a story and what angles they do it from. Sometimes they sound western msm, or are just directly quoting a western media source - such as the story I linked to you were commenting on. Other times they sound like GlobalResearch or Lew Rockwell. They do interview quite a few people shunned by the zionist western media - Rick Rozoff being a regular, for example, and some of their editorial material reads like alternative western sources. VOR is Russian government owned and run. I assume it's something like VOA in concept. A couple of years ago, VOR just provided a very bare bones coverage of any story, hardly more than the very basics of what it was.

      Russia Today might be considered to be a Russian PBS or NPR. They spun off RIA Novosti originally, another government run or sponsored house, who then later said they were had no connections to RT any more. RT can be quite alternative, and they can be also be msm like. They used to be more consistently radical than VOR, but VOR has been greatly expanded its new coverage and the two switch back and forth as to who is doing the better coverage of a news story.

      The other main English language site is RIA Novosti. They've gone way downhill from what they were several years ago but still sometimes do a decent job. RIAN is the most western leaning of these 3, which is surprising since they are a government media house. Most of what RIAN publishes is in Russian, with only small percentage of the material being translated into English. I don't follow their Russian language material much, though when I have, it seems to be not really different in bias than the material posted in English.

      As for zionist propaganda, VOR seems the most neutral, RT can be very zionist, and it can be very critical, as well. Lately they seem to have become more critical than they used to be. Hopefully, that trend will continue. RIAN is hopeless in this regard, at least in what they post in English. They have so often sounded like an NED implant, I've wondered why the staff has been allowed to front for what sounds like Yeltsin has beens.

      вот так

    4. Thanks for that comprehensive reply Bot Tak.

  9. Israeli attack on Syria is a provocation against Russia says Communist leader Guennadi Ziouganov. Reading between the lines he is saying that Putin should be more overtly robust.

    1. Yes, he is.

      Not surprising because he is an opposition politician, so is not in the hot seat

      "The events of the last twenty years show that Russia is also in the crosshairs"

      I doubt that is lost on Russia

      "With Syria, a friend of Russia, being the target of an undeclared war, the long-term interests of Russia require an adequate response to stop the military intervention in the internal affairs of this sovereign state, a member of the United Nations."

      Again, I am quite sure Russia is aware of the long term ramifications of this immoral move on Syria.

      However, and if there are any military persons about IMO Russia can not take on the full onslaught of NATO

      I suspect the war will be fought, as it has been, in Syria
      And will spread out slowly from there.

  10. None of us can imagine what capabilities NATO or Russia have in their black projects. As for known capabilities, NATO is a lot stronger than Russia. On the other hand, NATO has an unlimited appetite and wants to dominate the entire Earth. In any case, the bigger question is how Israel and Turkey would respond to being attacked. Let's say Israel sends some more jets, and Syria responds by shooting one down and sends some rough equivalent in missiles. Then what? A similar question for Turkey. I don't think it is obvious in this position that ZATO would continue.


    1. Paul:

      I like your well reasoned responses :)

      I try to entertain as many possibilites as I can.. because IMO NATO, Russia, Israel, Turkey et al are doing the exact same thing
      Thinking of every which way all/any scenario can or will play out?

      " I don't think it is obvious in this position that ZATO would continue."

      I wanna throw something out at you?
      Another thought I have had is that a war, timed with financial collapse would be handy?

  11. Sure, war and financial collapse go together. Actually, it's possible that an attack would lead to other countries, such as China, pushing a collapse to rearrange the playing field. After all, ZATO is trying to use its current military might and dollar leverage while it can to change the map and prevent Russia and China from creating a Eurasian trade and prosperity zone.

    One possible problem for ZATO in using this war to time their desired collapse is that the public would blame their governments. In the case of Turkey, it might even be fatal for the Gulen crowd. Already, the war narrative has almost collapsed. I read an article in the CBC today, and the comments were all very hostile and informed towards ZATO. Are you willing to lose your job or pension over this stupidity? Is someone in Istanbul?

    So, if you were in one of the ZATO think tanks, how would you deflect the blame away from yourself and onto Syria/Russia/China? Bonus points if you can create a way of making ZATO out as heroes due to fighting Islamic extremism, too. But the score will be graded based on the reader's comments in the CBC paper.