Saturday, August 31, 2013

Unfolding the Future of the Long War: Geostrategic/resource control

Continuing on with the real reason for the war on Syria. Not, the ‘bad man’ who did something very, very bad. That so called bad deed requiring punishment from the benevolent big daddy.
You should have gotten past that stuff in Gr. 2!

We are talking the real reason for the US/Israel/NATO destabilization of Syria, which started long ago. In a land far, far away. The USA.

You read yesterday’s post? Syria: Pipelines, Global Control Tyranny and US dollar hegemony
I know you have a well honed attention span and a sharp eye for good information. So, here is some more of it. No spin. No manipulation. No ad hominem.  Just the facts!
           
Stumbled across this piece in the Guardian, yesterday. I am ignoring all the spin and cutting to the chase.
Let me digress briefly. How odd to find this in the environmental section? When the whole piece is clearly political.
 (Alleged) Massacres of civilians are being exploited for narrow geopolitical competition to control Mideast oil, gas pipelines
         “Whatever the case, few recall that US agitation against Syria began long before recent atrocities, in the context of wider operations targeting Iranian influence across the Middle East.

In May 2007, a presidential finding revealed that Bush had authorised CIA operations against Iran. Anti-Syria operations were also in full swing around this time as part of this covert programme, according to Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker. A range of US government and intelligence sources told him that the Bush administration had "cooperated with Saudi Arabia's government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations" intended to weaken the Shi'ite Hezbollah in Lebanon. "The US has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria," wrote Hersh, "a byproduct" of which is "the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups" hostile to the United States and "sympathetic to al-Qaeda." He noted that "the Saudi government, with Washington's approval, would provide funds and logistical aid to weaken the government of President Bashir Assad, of Syria," with a view to pressure him to be "more conciliatory and open to negotiations" with Israel. One faction receiving covert US "political and financial support" through the Saudis was the exiled Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

According to former French foreign minister Roland Dumas, Britain had planned covert action in Syria as early as 2009: "I was in England two years before the violence in Syria on other business", he told French television:
  "I met with top British officials, who confessed to me that they were preparing something in Syria. This was in Britain not in America. Britain was preparing gunmen to invade Syria."

The 2011 uprisings, it would seem - triggered by a confluence of domestic energy shortages and climate-induced (?) droughts which led to massive food price hikes (?)   

*Since Syria is ‘down stream’ of Turkey, water shortages do not necessarily have to be climate induced and massive food price hikes could have much to do with manipulating the commodities markets.

- came at an opportune moment that was quickly exploited. Leaked emails from the private intelligence firm Stratfor including notes from a meeting with Pentagon officials confirmed US-UK training of Syrian opposition forces since 2011 aimed at eliciting "collapse" of Assad's regime "from within."

Since 2011? No, before 2011!

“So what was this unfolding strategy to undermine Syria and Iran all about? According to retired NATO Secretary General Wesley Clark, a memo from the Office of the US Secretary of Defense just a few weeks after 9/11 revealed plans to "attack and destroy the governments in 7 countries in five years", starting with Iraq and moving on to "Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran." In a subsequent interview, Clark argues that this strategy is fundamentally about control of the region's vast oil and gas resources.
Much of the strategy currently at play was candidly described in a 2008 US Army-funded RAND report, Unfolding the Future of the Long War (pdf).

 The report noted that "the economies of the industrialized states will continue to rely heavily on oil, thus making it a strategically important resource." As most oil will be produced in the Middle East, the US has "motive for maintaining stability in and good relations with Middle Eastern states":

    "The geographic area of proven oil reserves coincides with the power base of much of the Salafi-jihadist network. This creates a linkage between oil supplies and the long war that is not easily broken or simply characterized... For the foreseeable future, world oil production growth and total output will be dominated by Persian Gulf resources... The region will therefore remain a strategic priority, and this priority will interact strongly with that of prosecuting the long war."

In this context, the report identified several potential trajectories for regional policy focused on protecting access to Gulf oil supplies, among which the following are most salient:

    "Divide and Rule focuses on exploiting fault lines between the various Salafi-jihadist groups to turn them against each other and dissipate their energy on internal conflicts. This strategy relies heavily on covert action, information operations (IO), unconventional warfare, and support to indigenous security forces... the United States and its local allies could use the nationalist jihadists to launch proxy IO campaigns to discredit the transnational jihadists in the eyes of the local populace... US leaders could also choose to capitalize on the 'Sustained Shia-Sunni Conflict' trajectory by taking the side of the conservative Sunni regimes against Shiite empowerment movements in the Muslim world.... possibly supporting authoritative Sunni governments against a continuingly hostile Iran."

Exploring different scenarios for this trajectory, the report speculated that the US may concentrate "on shoring up the traditional Sunni regimes in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan as a way of containing Iranian power and influence in the Middle East and Persian Gulf." Noting that this could actually empower al-Qaeda jihadists, the report concluded that doing so might work in western interests by bogging down jihadi activity with internal sectarian rivalry rather than targeting the US: (These groups would  not target the US, same as they do not target Israel)

    "One of the oddities of this long war trajectory is that it may actually reduce the al-Qaeda threat to US interests in the short term. The upsurge in Shia identity and confidence seen here would certainly cause serious concern in the Salafi-jihadist community in the Muslim world, including the senior leadership of al-Qaeda. As a result, it is very likely that al-Qaeda might focus its efforts on targeting Iranian interests throughout the Middle East and Persian Gulf while simultaneously cutting back on anti-American and anti-Western operations."

The RAND document contextualised this disturbing strategy with surprisingly prescient recognition of the increasing vulnerability of the US's key allies and enemies - Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt, Syria, Iran - to a range of converging crises: rapidly rising populations, a 'youth bulge', internal economic inequalities, political frustrations, sectarian tensions, and environmentally-linked water shortages, all of which could destabilise these countries from within or exacerbate inter-state conflicts.

The report noted especially that Syria is among several "downstream countries that are becoming increasingly water scarce as their populations grow", increasing a risk of conflict. Thus, although the RAND document fell far short of recognising the prospect of an 'Arab Spring', it illustrates that three years before the 2011 uprisings, US defence officials were alive to the region's growing instabilities, and concerned by the potential consequences for stability of Gulf oil.
If the US defence officials were alive to the regions growing instabilities, no doubt they could take advantage of and manipulate the situation to aggravate the growing instabilities. Which they did!

These strategic concerns, motivated by fear of expanding Iranian influence, impacted Syria primarily in relation to pipeline geopolitics. In 2009 - the same year former French foreign minister Dumas alleges the British began planning operations in Syria - Assad refused to sign a proposed agreement with Qatar that would run a pipeline from the latter's North field, contiguous with Iran's South Pars field, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey, with a view to supply European markets - albeit crucially bypassing Russia. Assad's rationale was "to protect the interests of [his] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas."

Instead, the following year, Assad pursued negotiations for an alternative $10 billion pipeline plan with Iran, across Iraq to Syria, that would also potentially allow Iran to supply gas to Europe from its South Pars field shared with Qatar. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the project was signed in July 2012 - just as Syria's civil war was spreading to Damascus and Aleppo - and earlier this year Iraq signed a framework agreement for construction of the gas pipelines. ( This pipeline has been discussed on at least two previous occasions here at the blog)
The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline plan was a "direct slap in the face" to Qatar's plans. No wonder Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, in a failed attempt to bribe Russia to switch sides, told President Vladmir Putin that "whatever regime comes after" Assad, it will be "completely" in Saudi Arabia's hands and will "not sign any agreement allowing any Gulf country to transport its gas across Syria to Europe and compete with Russian gas exports", according to diplomatic sources. When Putin refused, the Prince vowed military action.

It would seem that contradictory self-serving Saudi and Qatari oil interests are pulling the strings of an equally self-serving oil-focused US policy in Syria, if not the wider region. It is this - the problem of establishing a pliable opposition which the US and its oil allies feel confident will play ball, pipeline-style, in a post-Assad Syria - that will determine the nature of any prospective intervention: not concern for Syrian life.

25 comments:

  1. tweet this to @pontifex (popes twitter) if US wages war on syria Pope should excommunicate catholis who take part: violates catholic doctrine of just wars

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. don't buy into it brian. catholic church is part of it.

      israeli energy company Delek Group signed into the contracts in the Tamar Gas project to send 2% of the gross to 2 front groups owned by the catholic church.

      Delete
    2. we;d nedd more than your saying: 'don't buy into it brian. catholic church is part of it'
      esp when christians are being slaughtered and christian leaders have spoken out=

      Delete
    3. please read.

      http://www.gotquestions.org/Catholic-Christian.html

      http://www.faithdefenders.com/articles/worldreligions/Ten_reasons_why_Christ_Catho.html

      http://www.wnd.com/2007/07/42509/

      http://www.jesus-is-lord.com/cath.htm

      http://www.africanaquatics.co.za/_christian/_articles/truth_about_roman_catholicism.htm

      discernment comes from God through the Holy Spirit, but not of man. pray for It.

      Delete
  2. FSA rally sydney: note the yellow hand sign
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153173516755697&set=gm.504475629627683&type=1&theater

    look familiar? its from egypt pro-muslim brotherhood ralies and guess who else uses this sign: Erdogan
    http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BR5IjhACcAACI-J.jpg
    and we know his role in sending in islamic terrorists into syria
    http://www.arabnews.com/news/462046

    ReplyDelete
  3. they arent all arabs
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/witw/articles/2013/08/04/western-jihadists-head-to-syria-to-fight.html

    ReplyDelete
  4. Looking at the headlines at Google and Yahoo news, it looks like the Jewish run western media is disappointed at the delay in attacking Syria, and following 2 basic spin scripts. The "more rational" outlets are spinning Obama wants Congress in on the decision. IE: he's a man of the people, rather than a dictator, though their disappointment he's not in there killing Israel's "enemies" is quite palpable. The hysterical outlets are spinning the Obama is a coward, a turncoat, an indecisive figure who doesn't represent American interests (including the public's) and all that other bs the zionazis spout.

    Neither version of the spin represents reality and it is quite clear the Jewish run western media still is pushing for war against Syria, irregardless how they spin Obama's role. One gets a ziofascist view, or a zionazi view. Not much variation in the "big lies" and propaganda. There is very little coverage of the demos against, or of those who object to the war in their headlines. The body of the articles may say something different than the headlines, frequently, this is the case, but I cant stomach the 90% bs one finds in even the best of them any more to bother reading further.

    I avoid television and radio news in the USA altogether because at best, these are on the same low level as the worst of the Jewish run print/internet media. Listening to those whinging bum bandits yak is like fingernails on a chalkboard.

    вот так

    ReplyDelete
  5. whats done in secret constitutes a conspiracy and attempt to move outsidet the law: notgic how the 'democracies' love secrecy
    this story is from april 2007, at the start of the insurgency: adding fuel to the idea this was a planned coup by foreign regimes esp US
    ============================

    The State Department has secretly financed Syrian political opposition groups and related projects, including a satellite TV channel that beams anti-government programming into the country, according to previously undisclosed diplomatic cables.
    The London-based satellite channel, Barada TV, began broadcasting in April 2009 but has ramped up operations to cover the mass protests in Syria as part of a long-standing campaign to overthrow the country’s autocratic leader, Bashar al-Assad. Human rights groups say scores of people have been killed by Assad’s security forces since the demonstrations began March 18; Syria has blamed the violence on “armed gangs.”
    Barada TV is closely affiliated with the Movement for Justice and Development, a London-based network of Syrian exiles. Classified U.S. diplomatic cables show that the State Department has funneled as much as $6 million to the group since 2006 to operate the satellite channel and finance other activities inside Syria. The channel is named after the Barada River, which courses through the heart of Damascus, the Syrian capital.
    http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-04-17/world/35262231_1_syrian-opposition-diplomatic-cables-syrian-authorities

    ReplyDelete
  6. US military revolt Against War with #Syria #IDidntJoin http://www.infowars.com/military-revolt-against-obamas-attack-on-syria/ …

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VoR is frontpaging the "I didn't join" revolt:

      "US military revolt against Obama’s decision to 'support Al-Qaeda in Syria'

      http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_09_02/US-military-revolt-against-Obama-s-decision-to-support-Al-Qaeda-in-Syria-0583/#239895296

      RT has additional info on the story:

      ‘I did not join for this’: US military men speak out against Syria strike

      http://rt.com/usa/us-against-syria-strike-313/

      One of the major factors that lead to the Americans retreating from Vietnam was rebellion in the military. This was quite widespread.

      вот так

      Delete
  7. Penny, your work on the big picture as to the whys on our involvement in the region is spot on. Thanks, as always..ben.

    ReplyDelete
  8. There's also that "Trans-Pacific Partnership" between the USA and Asian nations that the PTB want passed by October.

    The TPP makes NAFTA seem like an economic boon by comparison.

    All this blood being let in Syria sure makes for great headlines to keep the sheeple in the dark, not realizing what's left of their future is being sold--again--to the highest bidder.

    And the silence coming from Israeli CRIME MINISTER Betty Nuttyahoo is deafening.
    That loud-mouth can't resist putting his two cents in, regardless of the issue and the fact that he's been largely silent during this Syrian war mongering speaks volumes.

    Again, the only ones to benefit from this mess will be the 'Too Big to Fail' Wall Street casinos and Israel.... or is that redundant?

    ReplyDelete
  9. kinetics? Pawn or Queen?

    http://www.navytimes.com/article/20130710/NEWS/307100033/7-frigates-list-FY-14-decommissionings

    ReplyDelete
  10. Brezinski Calls for Obama to Shoot Down Israeli Jets; "A Liberty in Reverse"
    http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/09/brezinski_calls_for_obama_to_s.asp

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Penny, fantastic coverage on your blog. Thanks for showing us some really good insightful info on the situation. I dont have the same time online as I use to but I've stopped by to say hello!

    I think that the whole 'No' voting in the UK, and possibly in France and the USA also, is because they've orchestrated this way, to play for time (not for Assad's benefit) so that another terrible event can be spilled over our TV sets and bring the public into outrage and everyone then calls for a full all-or-nothing type of strike on Syria, rather than their useless specific targeting to 'teach him a lesson'...

    Does this make sense? Anyway, lol, I know what I mean!

    ;-)
    Marie

    ReplyDelete
  12. Israel ups the rhetoric and issues wider threats:

    In an implied critique of Obama, former foreign minister Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beytenu), now the chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, later Sunday lamented what he called the world’s “unprecedented” inactivity in the face of Assad’s brutality.

    “One hundred thousand people have been slaughtered in a country called Syria, and the world just keeps talking.”

    Liberman said numerous players were trying to draw Israel into the Syria conflict and that Israel was well-prepared.

    “We have all the answers. We know where Damascus, Brussels and Moscow are, and where Beirut’s Dahieh neighborhood (a Hezbollah stronghold) is, too.”

    Notice the contemptuous tone of, "a country called Syria."

    Notice also the 100,00 fatality figure but no mention that at least half of those have been from the SAA.

    The Zionist bile is being spat far and wide as they attempt to force the US into shedding blood on their behalf, yet again.

    ReplyDelete
  13. German gov. has stated they will not participate in any attack on Syria without UN. Now we see German intel. saying Assad did it and imply Hezbollah and Iran knowledge of the event.

    http://rt.com/news/germany-syria-sarin-intelligence-326/

    Now we need to understand that 'ALL' western intel work under the same umbrella. CIA, Saud intel., French intel., German intel., Pakistan ISI, Mossad, MI5/6, and others equals The Company. It's all the same and they work for the bankers/multinational elites.

    Anyone see the movie 'Sum of All Fears'?

    "You don't attack Russia and the Americans, you get the Russians and Americans to fight each other."

    Not implying this is Germany trying to sucker America into a stupid move, but the bankers setting up both Russia and America.

    If you have studied your history you know it was the Rus (aka Vikings, todays Russia) who weakened the Khazars so bad they were not able to recover enough to fend off the Mongal invasion that led to their downfall. They never forget. Stalin/Lenon was not enough. 'They' wish to finish the job.

    The idea of America, or what it used to be, was always hated and a threat. Systematic destruction. Been watching it.

    WWIII seems like it would be a welcome solution for solving how to rid 'their' world of the infestation of evil called free.

    They will fail. The beast will turn on the harlet. I read the end.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Ghouta(CW site) had this saudi there
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=564256003610186&set=a.298390980196691.60683.298382103530912&type=1&theater

    ReplyDelete
  15. This one is my favourite:

    http://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/usaf/2025/af/a-f-8.htm

    The second Iraq war in 2002/03 and now war with Iran in 2014 were obviously planned well before 1994.

    http://worldblogofblogs.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/blog-of-blogs-blog-of-blogs-11i2013.html

    Keep up the good work Penny. People are listening.

    Carol x

    ReplyDelete
  16. Israel test fired some missiles. Russia saw them launched, they fell short of Syria. At first when asked Israel officials denied knowledge, yet now they say they did a test with the US, but the US doesn't seem to have acknowledged this.

    Good grief

    Buffy

    ReplyDelete
  17. must read:

    'Fayyad added : " By the beginning of last month ( August) , hundreds of citizens were killed, kidnapped or missed in Lattakia countryside where they were subjected to the worst kinds of ethnic cleansing by terrorist groups, criticizing certain Lebanese parties which rejoice al-Nusra Front .

    On the other hand , one man , Abu Omar , testified during the conference about chemical weapons used by armed terrorist groups , noting "I saw gallons of toxic substances and chemicals on which written "Made in Saudi Arabia " and others made in Turkey," pointing out that the militants were preparing to attack an airport near Damascus six days ago and that has the name of a place where the chemical weapons are existed .

    Abu Omar expressed his willingness to go to New York and Geneva and any place in the world to give his testimony, asserting that he has all the evidence and arguments to that the so - called Free Syrian Army and the terrorist al-Nusra Front possess these chemical weapons.'

    http://www.syriatimes.sy/index.php/news/local/7850-syrian-human-rights-organization-testimonies-on-lattakia-countryside-massacres

    ReplyDelete
  18. I will get back to everyone later
    Putting up a new post and then out the door!
    Thanks for all the wonderful comments
    I had been on a self-imposed hiatus, just two days
    of course I kept reading the news and letting comments through...
    so, I will be back
    buffy: saw the news about the missile firings today, Israel and the US
    it will be in the new post

    ReplyDelete
  19. Well, no-one else has drawn the obvious conclusion. They are meaner than the Scots. Not enough fuel.
    :)
    Thank goodness.
    Penny, you aren't brilliant all the time. Just enough. Please don't change.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hey good bud, I did some digging because, well you know...
    You haven't actually got the core yet. Here is an aspect, not all of it.
    Persuasion & Brainwashing Techniques
    Being Used On The Public Today
    by and copyright Dick Sutphen
    I hit the 4,096 character limit. I'll mail it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Clothcap! "good bud" I love it!

      What?
      more reading?
      good god!
      My eyeballs are already popping out of my head and my hair is standing on end!
      thanks

      Delete

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