Monday, March 17, 2014

A federated Ukraine as proposed previously by Russia?

Yesterday's post contained a link to a TIME article:

White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer also says supporting the new Ukrainian government “in every way possible” is at the top of the Obama’s administration’s priority list.
But action on $1 billion in loan guarantees to Ukraine is on hold because Congress is on a break now.
1 Billion in loan guarantees on hold because Congress went on break? Yesterday I asked:
 Really? Are the thugs of Maidan being hung out to dry? Anyone?

I think they are being hung out to dry. I also suspect the inevitable win in Crimea was the reason for this.
1 billion dollars in loan guarantees to a country that looked to be on the verge of splitting apart in a very messy fashion. Sometimes bankers like stability. Sometimes bankers like war.  In the case of Ukraine they were looking for the whole enchilada and it wasn't happening.
Crimeans cheering after referendum

Let's go back to February 22nd/2014, an article in DW-Would a federal Ukraine be viable    

Victor Yanukovych was still, just barely, at the helm in Ukraine?

Article 2 of the Ukrainian Constitution defines Ukraine as a unitary state. Its capital and center of power is Kyiv. The country, which regained its independence following the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, is divided into 24 districts (oblasts) and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
So far, the president, the government and parliament have always had authority over nearly everything, from taxes to language policy. But now it seems that the continuing political upheaval in Ukraine is threatening to rip the country apart.
Today (22.02.2014) legislators and officials sympathetic to Yanukovych as well as some Russian lawmakers gathered in Kharkiv, a city in the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine. As pro-Western protesters outside shouted "Ukraine is not Russia!", the officials, from predominantly Russian-speaking areas, approved a resolution for regional leaders to take full responsibility for constitutional order in their territories.
There has been vocal support for Viktor Yanukovych's ruling Party of Regions in the east and south of the country - traditionally strongholds of the party - which could embolden the party to try to exploit the current political crisis in order to turn Ukraine into a federation.
Party of Regions warns of disintegration
 The idea is not new. In early February, the parliamentary newspaper Holos Ukrainy (Voice of Ukraine) printed a proposal by the Communist Party "regarding possible amendments to the Constitution." According to these amendments, Ukraine should become a federal state. The Communists are allies of the ruling Party of Regions and often vote together.
A few days before the proposal was published, a Party of Regions parliamentarian, Vadim Koleznichenko, spoke in favor of a "federalization of Ukraine," since the country was on the brink of civil war, as the online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda quoted him saying. He said that citizens in the east and south of Ukraine see the opposition protests in Kyiv as a "threat" to them. Federalization, he said, would help to prevent the country from falling apart. According to media reports, this would mean Ukraine could be divided into up to seven large states, each with its own parliament.
 Was this the reason for the sudden coup backed by the US and company?  The one that took place the very day this federation proposal was put forth publicly? Changes to the constitution that would change the country? I suspect the US and cohorts did not want a loose federation of mini states.
But then.... the Crimean referendum was set to take place
The US knew that referendum was going to guarantee a win for Russia.
Suddenly everything changed?
Putin's friend wants Ukraine as federation
  Moreover, Viktor Medvedchuk, a consultant to Andriy Klyuyev, the head of the presidential administration, has also spoke out in favor of the idea. "Federalization is the one and only medicine against the disintegration" of Ukraine, he wrote in his blog.
Opposition warns of Kremlin stratagem
  There has already been heated debate about whether or not Ukraine should be a federation. In the early 1990s, the Crimean peninsula wanted to secede; and during the Orange Revolution in 2004, regions in the east and south of the country threatened to form their own republic.
The seeds of separation had long been sown in Ukraine.
But this time it could be serious. The ongoing protests in Kyiv, which at least superficially seem to be the work of western Ukrainians, have been widely rejected in the east. There, many people still feel connected with Russia. They often watch Russian television, which portrays the events in Kyiv as a "far-right coup d'etat."
Opposition leaders have not yet commented on the idea of a federal Ukraine - with the exception of former Member of Parliament Vyacheslav Kyrylenko. He has warned in a blog against federalizing the country. "This is just the first step," he said, adding that the second step would be to split off eastern Ukraine and destroy the independent state. His blog entry speculated that Russia was behind these plans.
Was Russia behind the plans to see Ukraine federated? It would seem entirely plausible.

Now that we have reviewed the background- Let's see the news today, one day after the Crimean referendum.- Russia urges Ukrainian parliament to prepare federative constitution

Prepare a federative constitution?

 "As has been repeatedly explained by the Russian side, the current situation in Ukraine was not created by us but resulted from a deep crisis that gripped the Ukrainian state, polarized the Ukrainian society and aggravated the antagonistic differences between various parts of the country. Efforts by the international community should aim precisely at helping to overcome those differences," the statement says.
"With this in mind and taking into account requests from the United States and European countries, we have prepared and submitted to our main partners in the United States, Europe and other regions our proposals on how external assistance should be organized to promote the steps the Ukrainians themselves should take to end the crisis. For that purpose, we suggested creating a contact group on support to Ukraine, made up so as to suit all the Ukrainian political forces," the ministry said.
Moscow is ready to cooperate with foreign partners to form a multilateral mechanism without delay for resolving the crisis in Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday.

Russia is talking as if the US and EU are in agreement with this federation proposal
Though I am not noticing any real news on this via the western mainstream media
Just the mention from yesterday of non approval for funds for Ukraine because Congress is on vacation.
On vacation? Yup, there's a valid excuse.

UPDATE: regarding the completely unperturbed stock market- no surprise there

 What Crimean crisis? Dow ends up 1.1%


  1. Putin’s 2-move checkmate in Crimea!
    BY MARCUS BROOKS on MARCH 16, 2014 • ( 3 )

    By Marcus Brooks

    According to an article published in Putin has brilliantly out smarted the US and Europeans in a couple of days and has earned Russia more than 20 billion dollars and has also managed to get an extra 30% stake within the lucrative Russian energy sector.

    20140117_hus_0This is a story that the three monkeys at the BBC, CNN and Fox News will never tell you folks.

    Yes Sir! Putin has financially screwed EU and America. In the eyes of the entire world he played this geo-political game without a hitch.

    You see, some shares of Russian energy companies up until recently used to be owned by foreign investors predominantly Americans and Europeans, that’s before Putin gave the order to buy shares of these companies at their lowest. So in layman terms this now means that almost half of the revenues from the oil and gas industry will go into the coffers of Russia, and not into the accounts of “financial sharks” of Europe.

    The story begins

    This story starts with the current situation in Crimea, when the ruble started to fall sharply, and the Russian central bank did absolutely nothing to support it, of course rumours started that Russia simply did not have a reserve currency to maintain the ruble. These rumours along with Putin’s statement that he was ready and would protect the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine led to a large drop in the share price of energy companies in Russia, as expected the “financial sharks” began to sell their shares. And sure enough the great strategist Putin waited all week and just smiled at the various press conferences (trying not to give away his plan I bet) and when the price fell below the plinth he then ordered his officials into buying shares at rock bottom prices. Of course by the time the European and American investors realised that they had been duped it was too late, the stocks were already in the hands of the Russians. This brilliant operation has to be the first in stock market history PUTIN BRAVO!


    So I reckon the euro will fall by 30% and the price of petrol and diesel will rise, and you can bet that the City of London will not support sanctions against Russia, because if they do, our European economies will feel the full brunt of the angry Russian bear! I don’t suppose the Yanks will bail out the E.U?

  2. Gorby says referendum corrects mistake...

  3. Great articles Penny.

    Congress always on a break, FROM REALITY :)

    "1 Billion in loan guarantees"
    FUNNY MONEY but what isn't nowadays
    Scott Rickard goes into this subject. (good episode, not a fan of show though)
    US foreign aid agencies paid for Kiev street violence - ex-US agent

    "Really? Are the thugs of Maidan being hung out to dry? Anyone?"
    Lower levels ALWAYS, top level will be insulated for the most part.

    "Would a federal Ukraine be viable"
    ABSOUTELY not in the interest of the zio-imperial fascists.
    They're not in "peace" mode. They might allow the short shallow illusion, but the "betrayal" dagger will appear in the end. They offer nothing but corruption, carnage, exploitation & destruction.

    better vid on RT but wanted to give PressTV some play
    EU slaps asset freeze, travel ban, against 21 Russians,Crimeans

    1. thanks for all the info patrick
      the sanctions have zero teeth and are actually kind of funny
      in the way the media is pushing them
      but did you see the stock market? it soared
      the sanctions are completely non offensive to the monied classes
      everyone can still have 'confidence' in the system for a bit longer..

  4. Hey Penny,
    wc, my pleasure
    found this very good Rick Rozoff PressTV "The Debate".
    Know how busy you can get, so here is the link
    Enjoyed watching Mr. Rozoff lay waste to the zio-imperial fascist pressitute with cold hard facts.
    I see you like Rick also (I see Stop Nato link on your blog)

    1. hey patrick

      that was a most excellent interview- I do like Rick Rozoff- very down to earth type of fellow-good grasp of the NATO global army
      One of these days when I get ambitious or have the time I need to clean up that mess at the sidebar-- hehehe, until then
      but Rick will always be there
      as will Eric Draitser- i quite like him also
      and my fellow canuckie james corbett too!

  5. Did Vicki (Fuck the EU) Nuland help make the sniper attacks happen in Kiev? 'One of the most interesting takeaways of the Ukraine crisis was the report that Victoria Nuland had threatened sanctions against the Western interests of key Ukrainian oligarchs if violence was used against protesters…which erupted with suspicious alacrity. Since the various oligarchs controlled dozens of deputies in the Ukrainian parliament, Yanukovych’s Party of Regions imploded and the rest is regime change history.'

  6. How can you characterize this (crimean)referendum, and can it be called legitimate?
    In political affairs, one has to conclude that legitimacy is in the eye of the beholder. When Croatia and Slovenia held their referendums to succeed from Yugoslavia in the summer of 1991, Western countries hastily recognized that as a legitimate exercise of their democratic right, and by the end of the year, they were also recognized as independent states.
    When Bosnia-Herzegovina had a referendum in February of 1992, it was in clear violation of the then valid constitution of the republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, which postulated that two of the three constituent nations should never outvote the third. In fact, each of the constituent nations effectively had the right to veto.
    That was disregarded, and the United States promptly recognized Bosnia-Herzegovina in April of ’92, ushering in the war. When Kosovo was detached from Serbia by NATO in 1999, and later on, when it proclaimed unilateral declaration on independence in February of 2008, again, the United States and its NATO allies in Western Europe did not have any problems whatsoever to accept that decision as legitimate and to recognize Kosovo in the name, of course, of self-determination.
    Read more:

  7. YES autocrats do fear the people:
    When voters in both France and the Netherlands rejected the EU Constitution in 2005, instead of accepting the outcome, the European Union simply re-named the Constitution and re-introduced it as the Lisbon Treaty, forcing Europeans to vote once again.
    Even when Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty in 2008, the EU simply changed the rules which mandated that the treaty could only be passed with a unanimous vote from all member states and passed it anyway, flying in the face of any notion of democracy.
    In brazenly declaring that the EU would ignore referendums, Giscard d’Estaing even went on record to admit that the Lisbon Treaty “had been carefully crafted to confuse the public.”

  8. treachery Kasparov style
    Garry Kasparov ‏@Kasparov63 10h
    You want a strong sanctions list? Go to Forbes! Go down the list of Russian billionaires who support Putin & loot the treasury & hit them.

  9. the core lies of the ukraine coup (in german)

  10. useful info from Kiev
    Is anyone really in control in Ukraine?
    [Monday update:

    More tweets from our deep throat at Kiev Airport:
    The military and the border police continue to confiscate equipment that is being sent for the failed National Guard.

    All cargo planes are inspected by the army. From what I can tell, they are of the same opinion as the Air Force.

    The military command of Ukraine will make a decision in the next few days and communicate it to Russia, and their government, in that order.

    70% percent of soldiers in Crimea have already communicated officially that they are transferring to the Russian army.

    The EU, the USA and their blasted mother don't recognize the referendum, yet in Kiev most people accept it and care little or nothing about it.

    It's incredible that [the referendum] is more accepted here than in the rest of the world. Why don't they leave these people alone, may I ask?

    Military neighbors, friends, colleagues, consider [the referendum] legit and understand it and accept it. The world that gives opinions about these people, doesn't. Strange.]

    [While everyone is concentrating on the referendum in Crimea, let's not lose sight of what's happening in the rest of (formerly independent) Ukraine. As we already know, the government in Kiev is dead broke; the aid that is forthcoming from the US is barely enough to cover its debt to Russia's Gazprom, for natural gas. Ukraine's bond yield has spiked to 50% while $15 billion of these bonds mature andhave to be rolled over this year.

  11. José Miguel Sardo ‏@jmsardo 6m
    #Ukraine: Vladimir Putin validates Crimea's annexation to Russia before speech at Duma at 12h00CET.

  12. thank you brian
    how do you do all this?
    the energy level you must have!
    much appreciated