Monday, July 14, 2014

Kiev "claims" plane shot down by Russia- Spin, spin, spin

 Apologies readers... I misread the date, but, am leaving this posted anyway.
Feel free to leave info and comment regarding today's incident, which still features the usual contradictory reports. Then I will update this post accordingly
Again, my apologies.

All kinds of contradictory news about this incident. I tend to think the shot that downed the plane was fired from anti-fascist held territory. That fact won't stop Kiev's fascist from suggesting otherwise

NYT's Europe

Separatists in Ukraine used a shoulder-fired missile to shoot down a large Ukrainian military transport jet as it was trying to land at an airport in this eastern city on Saturday, killing all 49 people on board, the military said. The attack was the deadliest episode for the Ukrainian military since the unrest began in the country’s east.
“On approach to the Lu(g)hansk airport a Ukrainian armed forces military transport Il-76 airplane was shot down with an antiaircraft rocket system,” the military wing of the prosecutor general’s office said in a statement. “In addition to the nine crew members, 40 paratroopers were on board. All of them died.”
A surveillance video that captured the plane’s destruction showed a streak of light rising from the ground, then an explosion near the airport where the plane was making its final approach to Lu(g)hansk.
Don't know why the names didn't come over with the image- The plane was shot down near Lugansk airport.

The plane crashed into a barley field about 12 miles from the airport. Parts of the four-engine jet plane were mangled beyond recognition, other items were oddly intact, and all lay scattered about, wholly unguarded by either side.
 “Brother kills brother. When will this end?” said one man, who offered only his first name, Taras. “I heard the plane when it exploded last night. How many mothers won’t see their sons again? And for what?"
The post said the missiles were Iglas, or “needles,” Russian-made antiaircraft rockets of a type that separatists have shown to journalists in recent weeks. Pro-Russian groups say they obtained them from Ukrainian military bases.
The jet was making its approach into a contested area. The Ukrainian Army controls the airport, but separatists hold Luhansk, which is important for patrolling the border with Russia.
 In Kiev, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Russian Embassy on Saturday, hurling eggs at the building, tearing down the flag and overturning diplomatic cars. That provoked a response from Moscow, with the foreign ministry issuing a statement accusing the Kiev government of “conniving” with the assailants in the attack on the building.


  1. Hi Penny,

    The description posted here is of the transport aircraft IL-76 shot down in June.

    The plane shot down today was an AN-26 shot down at the border near Donetsk Russia.

    The militia also claim to have shot down 2 Su-25s today.


    1. Oops my bad, I read the dam date wrong!
      Thanks, I saw July and should have seen June
      Red faced!

  2. The BBC have reported the incident and pushes the Ukranian government version while adding that NATO reports a build up of Russian troops at the border.

    The incident happened at Izvaryne, not mentioned in the article, but shown on the map at the bottom. As I wrote earlier, what the hell was a Ukranian military aircraft doing flying at 21,000 feet directly aove the Russian border?

    I don't believe a word the Ukranian government tells us.

    There are conflicting reports about the mission of the plane. Some said that they were dropping supplies to isolated units close to the border. They wouldn't do that from 21,000 feet.

    Other developments: I saw a video of anti-fascist protests in Kharkov, a city of close to two million with a mixed Russian / Ukranian population.

    Close to Mariupol in the south there have been several attacks on border units with about 6 killed on more than one occasion.

    The militia have men with experience of the war in Chechnya. I think we'll see increasing numer of partizan activities.

    Will we see Nazi type reprisals?


    1. Hi Anthony

      I noticed the claims of Russian troops at the border, as if to bolster the missile from Russia narrative?
      Check out my latest post, I spent too much time searching news today-sigh

  3. Hi Penny,

    This is actual footage of the plane An-26 being hit.

    I don't know what kind of missile was used, but the plane was able to continue flying and the crew bailed out. Note the jubilation of the people filming the incident!

    There are reports that the plane was flying in Russian airspace when it was hit.

    The BBC reported that the Russians had made no comments. I assume they will be checking the position of the plane when it was hit. It may very well have violated Russian airspace.

    In other news, the Donetsk Russia checkpoint opened again giving refugees a chance to escape. There is also talk of running trains from the Donbass region through Donetsk Russia. My first thought was that the Ukranians would try to bomb the train.


    1. Hi Anthony
      thanks- reports the plane was in Russian airspace too?!
      hm. so many narratives
      My husband wondered if the plane was having mechanical problems, which the crew was aware of and was able to bail out?

      And then as it was crashing could the anti fascists have taken a shot at it, not knowing it was already failing?

    2. Ukrainian and western MSM are trying to push the narrative that the AN-26(19 Blue) was shot down by Russia.

      see here...

      Now common sense will tell you, if you have been paying attention, that there is no way Russia would do this and get drawn into the Uk. struggle at this point when their current strategy is working.

      That story and this source claims 6500m.

      But outside of speculation, lets look at the facts. Lets look at what we can tell from the video.

      Look at the shadows cast from the afternoon sun. This shows us the camera operator was facing eastward. Now look at the path the missile takes. It was clearly launched from the ground with an eastward flightpath. All official sides of the story claim the aircraft was near the Russian border but still in Uk. airspace. So, the admission the aircraft was in Uk airspace and the missile has a eastward flightpath and launched from the ground disproves the theory that it could have been a Russian air to air missile or surface to air rocket from Russian territory.

      Now lets look at the missile impact in the video clearly shown by the flash and black smoke. I have some experience judging aircraft altitude from being a military radar operator. I would sometimes take smoke breaks and step outside the radar van and when planes would fty over it was just something to kill time by looking at them on the radar when I sat back down at the scope. From my experience the claim the AN-26 was at 6500m is bogus. 6500m = 21,325ft. If I had to guess, that plane was no more that 10,000ft and probably closer to 8,000 or 2400m.

      So why is it so important to the Uk. and the west to push the 6500m theory? Well, the Igla manpad has an unclassified effective altitude of 3500m. It has been suggested that the manpads that were found by the militia on the side of the road were Igla-s. These have an unclassified effective altitude of 6000m. So, the disinfo press comes up with a number(6500m) just outside of the stated capabilities(6000m) of the Russian made manpads.

      When thinking of stated or unclassified capabilities of weapon systems, one must be aware that the actual capabilities are sometimes quite higher. This is sometimes due to security reasons but also many times due to marketing issues. A missile that claims to mave an 80-90% kill ratio at 3000m, though it has an actual range that is higher, can not keep the kill ratio claim while increasing its claimed range due to the lower kill probability at the longer range. It is just a marketing tradeoff.

      For example, take the SR-71. The unclassified capabilities of this aircraft are 80,000ft+ and 2,200+ mph. I have personally tracked this aircraft at well over that altitude and over twice that speed. So what is claimed in cababilities are not always what is can actually achieve on the battlefield.

      So back to the missile. Uk's claim that the AN-26 was hit at 6500m is just used to discount the fact that the militia shot it down so the blame can be cast on Russia.

      There is also another reason to deny the claim of the Igla shooting down this plane and that has to do with weapon sales. One of the reasons these missiles were provided was to show off its effective capabilities in actual combat. Now do not let this fact overshadow the big reason was also to aid the resistance against the facists and save lives, this can not be forgotten at all, but lets also be real about this. The US/Turkey made Stingers do not work all that good in Syria. Probably a lot has to do with the operator but also it is just not as good as the Igla-s. So, with all the hype of so many successful downing of Uk. planes, this will increase demand for the Igla system. This shows it has better seekers and reacts better, it is easier to use, more mobile, quicker to engage, and it is cheaper that the western equipment.

    3. "So back to the missile. Uk's claim that the AN-26 was hit at 6500m is just used to discount the fact that the militia shot it down so the blame can be cast on Russia"

      Paul read my latest, because, I agree.
      The claim of altitude is the justification to blame Russia
      It does not fly

    4. The BBC have an article today that includes a comment from an expert (well down the article) that casts doubt on Ukranian claims that the plane was flying at 6500 metres:

      However, defence analyst Charles Heyman, who edits a book called Armed Forces of the European Union, questioned the likelihood of the plane flying at high altitude.

      He told the Associated Press news agency the missile was more likely to have been fired by rebels.

      "I doubt the transport plane was flying at 6,500m," he said. "That doesn't make sense. The higher you fly, the more it costs, and the plane would have had to be pressurised. It was probably shot down using Sam-6 missiles owned by the rebels, which they have quite a few of."

      The BBC article describes a plane attack this morning, but there are reports that the Ukranian government has suspended air activity. The levels of attrition comined with the militia having SAMs could have given the Ukranians cold feet.

      In combination with claims that the Ukranians have suspended air activity, there are also claims that they are pulling back from various locations surrounding Lugansk. It sounds like tactical withdrawals to consolidate after the recent heavy fighting and also to reduce the numer of vulnerale supply lines.

      LUHANSK, July 15 /ITAR-TASS/. Ukrainian army units are leaving their positions near east Ukraine’s Luhansk, the press office of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic reported on Tuesday.
      “The Ukrainian Armed Forces are leaving their positions they had held near Krasnodon and have also withdrawn from Alexandrovka (west of Luhansk) and have started to pull back from the town of Schastye (north of Luhansk),” the press office said, adding there had been especially fierce battles between the Ukrainian military and the local self-defense militia near Schastye and the bridge across the Northern Donets River about a month ago.

  4. OK, I misread the date on the NYT's article- but, will leave the post up for discussion of the latest incident
    sorry everyone :(

  5. Not yet the day is near without stepping across the border it will happen

  6. Hi Penny
    All the hot spots vying for attention and in the background we get this little nuggett
    Edward G. Gallagher, the head of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University noted that thanks to the Kolomoisky’s influence, the Ukrainian parliament decided to transfer the control over the national gas pipeline to the United States and European Union investors. According to Gallagher, it would be propitious if a man with such financial and political resources and connections in the United States, Israel and Europe would get more authority that just being a governor.

    Poroshenko is extremely concerned over the attacks by Kolomoisky. He is rushing to make new appointments in the top power structures ranks giving preference to those who are personally loyal. He shies away from starting a direct dialogue with Kolomoisky, gathering a group of other tycoons concerned over the excessive aspirations of the Dnepropetrovsk governor. TV channel Inter that belongs to gas tycoon Dmitry Firtash shot a film about the criminal past of Kolomoisky and his business, as well as his connections with Yanukovych. In the film Kolomoisky is given a nickname Chameleon, he is accused of wrong doing in his relationship with the Privat bank debt holders, artificial bankruptcy of Donbassaero, Aerosvit, Dnepraero enterprises for personal profit and raids against private property among other things.

    The internal strife between Ukrainian oligarchs is moving to a new phase. Whatever the outcome of the war on Donbass the country will have to grapple with the problem of greedy tycoons in power. A lot will depend on how soon the Ukrainian people will realize who their real enemies are.


    must read its background to whats going on still very important



  7. Hi Again Penny
    Now lets look at Sth America
    The Obama administration could not convince a single South American leader to avoid the BRICS summit in Brazil. In fact, two of the South American leaders sitting down with Putin, Xi, Rousseff, and the other leaders in Brazil, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro and Suriname's President Desi Bouterse, have been the subject of CIA- and State Department-linked destabilization efforts and sanctions threats. Also in attendance at BRICS are Argentina's President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Bolivia's President, Evo Morales Chile's President Michelle Bachelet, Colombia's President Juan Manuel Santos, Ecuador's President Rafael Correa, Guyana's President Donald Ramotar, Paraguay's President Horacio Cartes, Peru's President Ollanta Humala, and Uruguay's President José Mujica. America's sanctions against Russia and its saber-rattling against China on behalf of Japan and the Philippines have fallen on deaf ears in South America. The teenager-like antics of Nuland, Jacobson, along with those of U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice and U.S. ambassador to the UN Samantha Power, are sure to be discussed in sideline gossip by the leaders gathered in Fortaleza.

    The presence of President Santos of Colombia is particularly noteworthy. Santos recently defeated a right-wing candidate supported by the same Obama administration’s interventionists who have helped disrupt the economy of Venezuela. The losing candidate, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, had the full support of Santos’s right-wing and pro-Israeli/pro-U.S. predecessor Alvaro Uribe. Recent disclosures have shown that Uribe instituted an NSA-like national communications surveillance system aimed at his opponents. Zuluaga’s ties with the same elements who are trying to depose Maduro in Venezuela have not been lost on Santos. He continues to engage in peace negotiations in Havana with left-wing DARC guerrillas and improve ties with Venezuela much to the chagrin of the CIA operatives who live in splendor in the Miami area of Florida.

    Now you will hear shrilling (is that a word?) from you know where,,, used to be white,, now a shade of brown me thinks... house

    "things that make you go HHhhhmmmmmmmm" (borrowing a phrase from a financial adviser on the net)



  8. 3rd Hi Penny
    This sums up pretty well all that is happaning.

    This is a variation on the Complexity Excuse and it leads to the same implicit conclusion: we are powerless, so let go of all ideas of reform. Just enjoy your life and quit tilting at windmills.

    Leads to

    But we choose to crucify whistleblowers, mock and denigrate informed critics and marginalize/demonize truth-tellers as threats to our place at the feeding trough.

    Resulting in

    Vested interests are threatened by the losses generated by small financial fires, so these are systemically suppressed. As a result, the fallen deadwood piles ever higher, creating more fuel for the next random lightning strike to ignite.

    Once the deadwood piles high enough, the random lightning strike ignites a fire so fast-moving and so hot that it cannot be suppressed, and the entire financial system burns to the ground.

    So go ahead and keep defending the Status Quo as the best system possible, or believe Elites will keep suppressing fires forever because they're so powerful, or whatever excuse, rationalization or justification you prefer. It won't matter, because the firestorm won't respond to words, beliefs, ideological certainties, reassurances or official pronouncements. It will do what fires do, which is burn all available fuel until there's no fuel left to consume.


    Call me a pessimist if you like I believe it will happen (financial collapse due to apathy and ineptitude.



    1. KamNam- hello and thanks- I will read all of this later
      I reworked this post into a new one with a timeline and am out of time for now to blog and read
      glad to see you around :)