Thursday, September 11, 2014

Redrawing the Map of the Russian Federation: Partitioning Russia

Partitioning? I call it balkanizing.
This is a topic that's been addressed at the blog, though it's been a while
Flashback 2012- Predicting the Future: The destabilization of Russia

Interesting article by  Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya


  1. Hi Penny,

    In the Donbass, despite the truce there has been ongoing shelling, fighting and today it seems as the tempo is picking up. Basically, in many areas there is no truce and fighting has resumed.

    There are, however, still negotiations to exchange prisoners, which was part of the ceasefire agreement. The Ukranian government side have been stalling and there are some who say that many of those taken prisoner by the Ukranians are now dead. Tomorrow there is supposed to be another exchange, but I wonder if the fragile truce will last that long. The Ukranians might conveniently use the resumed fighting as as an excuse not to produce the prisoners they tortured and executed, this includes many civilians suspected of separatist activities.

    There was a strange speech given by Dominique Strauss Kahn where he said that nobody in Europe is prepared to fight for the Ukraine.

    Not officially anyway. There are reports of many Polish mercenaries and NATO is planning an exercise in West Ukraine starting September 16th. The NATO forces include Germans and German tanks, which is guaranteed to recall memories of World War two to all sides.

    There was an interview with Igor Strelkov a couple of days ago where he reiterated the idea that the militia have been betrayed by politicians, but the militia military commanders on the ground seem to have no illusions that the war will restart in earnest any time now.

    As always, one big question is the quality of the Ukranian troops and their equipment. With each wave of mobilization there is the chance that the quality of recruits will fall. There have been several reports in the past days and weeks of Ukranian units complaining of the poor quality of their equipment.

    Summer is at an end. Autumn is beginning. If the militia can continue to manouevre as well as they did in the Summer then the suffering of isolated Ukranian troops will only increase, So far as I can see, the militia are still giving ground rather than wasting men or risking encirclement.


    1. Thanks Anthony
      I had wondered where you had gotten to again
      Glad you came back to keep me up to speed
      Was watching the news out of Ukraine, Russia, but there hasn't been much in the way of really earthshattering stuff
      I saw the fighting continued- another aid convoy
      lots of crazy claims by Yatz and co

      I notice the Azov battalion getting additional coverage? And lots of narrative promotion regarding the fascist aspects of these troops being a problem for Kiev- which gets me wondering about the next move?

  2. Thanks Penny.
    I think there are two possible outcomes:
    a hot war
    a cold war
    In the hot war case, the "Americans" (ie their leaders) will have to give a large chunk of power to China. And then? This could be a double-edged sword. They rarely think two steps ahead, they are just good at sowing trouble; and it may fail this time: Russia is no Iraq, and even Iraq was a big mouthful to swallow. I have been praying.

    1. I just don't know?????
      "They rarely think two steps ahead"
      Actually I think they think more then two steps ahead- but that's just me