Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Oil Wars? US/Saudi Arabia vs Russia/Iran

Before we discuss the ‘global oil war’, we need to get some basics down- Bear with me on this, ok? I’ve been thinking about this for most of the day...



Think about this: four oil producers - Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Syria - are in turmoil today, and Iran is hobbled by sanctions.
Oil Wars
 The US dollar is on the rise. What affect does the increasing US dollar have on oil prices?  How does the increasing US dollar value make it easier for the US, aided by Saudi Arabia, to wage a global oil price war?
The Rise of the US Dollar
“Anti-dollar central bank policies have caused America's currency to be hammered for the past six years, but suddenly everything is coming up roses for the USD.

Where not long ago the dollar couldn’t get a break anywhere in the world, now the world is at its feet, lifting it higher and higher as investors flock to pay homage to it.

Currently measuring 85.5, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) comparing the value of the USD versus a basket of over a dozen foreign currencies is the strongest it has been since June of 2010, having soared 7% over the past three months alone”
 Bank of Canada daily converter rates- For the curious

 US dollar value increasing presently- Yes! So, how does the US dollar value tie in to the oil market?
Oil Price.com- US Oil Prices, Let the Good Times Roll
A bit of history-
The dollar began to devalue against the euro and other major global currencies in 2003, primarily as a result of the Iraq War costs. By year-end 2002, the dollar had weakened by nearly 20 percent and the price of crude had jumped more than 30 percent. Things got no better for the beleaguered dollar from then on. By December 2004, it was trading at $1.35 to the euro and crude oil had risen to over $43 per barrel.
As the US dollar devalued the price of crude jumped.  
We are in the opposite situation today. US dollar value increasing and oil decreasing.
The major factors that drive oil prices are (1) the global economy, primarily the U.S., the European Union and China; (2) energy scarcity, including reserve accretion and depletion; and (3) purchasing power, expressed in the respective currencies of those countries, with the heaviest influence from the U.S. dollar.
 Because a large majority of global oil is traded in U.S. dollars, the volatility of that currency has tremendous influence on the real price of oil.
Questions? 
An increase in the USD value would reduce the purchasing powers of countries not heavily influenced by the US dollar?- Yes.In the case of Canada this would affect the Canadian consumer- but not oil production in Canada, where like Saudi Arabia, all oil is denominated in US dollars

Saudi Arabia has sold all it’s oil in US dollars since it agreed to do so, way back, in 1973
“In 1973, a deal was struck between Saudi Arabia and the United States in which every barrel of oil purchased from the Saudis would be denominated in U.S. dollars. Under this new arrangement, any country that sought to purchase oil from Saudi Arabia would be required to first exchange their own national currency for U.S. dollars
 It would seem to me that- Saudi Arabia can take a hit on the barrel price because the US dollar is rising. And, they sell all their oil in US dollars!

It would also  seem sensible any claims being made such "Saudi Arabia dumping oil to increase leverage against the US" are incorrect.  If that was Saudi Arabia's real agenda, (forcing the hand of the US) they would NOT continue to sell their oil in US dollars. Of course, that move would guarantee harm to KSA in more ways then one.


Where does all this oil manipulation/ US dollar increase leave other countries?
Russia? China? Iran? The EU? Seems to me, if I am grasping this whole scenario correctly that the US is waging economic warfare, in a repeat episode, with the assistance of Saudi Arabia against some of these aforementioned countries. Venezuela also gets a mention in one of oped's below
Thoughts? Will the US be successful? How will this play out in the global economy?
I just don't know?

Below are two OPEDs from two very different people:

Both of them are sharing their thoughts- I'm muddlin' through the whole mess! Big sigh.......
Feel free to express your thoughts on this oil war.

  Global oil war underway between US-Saudi Arabia and Russia-Iran?-Thomas L Friedman
Is it just my imagination or is there a global oil war underway pitting the United States and Saudi Arabia on one side against Russia and Iran on the other? One can't say for sure whether the American-Saudi oil alliance is deliberate or a coincidence of interests, but, if it is explicit, then clearly we're trying to do to President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exactly what the Americans and Saudis did to the last leaders of the Soviet Union: Pump t .. bankrupt them by bringing down the price of oil to levels below what both Moscow and Tehran need to finance their budgets.
Is it just my imagination or is there a global oil war underway pitting the United States and Saudi Arabia on one side against Russia and Iran on the other? One can't say for sure whether the American-Saudi oil alliance is deliberate or a coincidence of interests, but, if it is explicit, then clearly we're trying to do to President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exactly what the Americans and Saudis did to the last leaders of the Soviet Union: Pump t ..

By Thomas L. Friedman
By Thomas L. Friedman
By Thomas L. FriedmanIs it just my imagination or is there a global oil war underway pitting the United States and Saudi Arabia on one side against Russia and Iran on the other? One can't say for sure whether the American-Saudi oil alliance is deliberate or a coincidence of interests, but, if it is explicit, then clearly we're trying to do to President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exactly what the Americans and Saudis did to the last leaders of the Soviet Union: Pump them to death- bankrupt them by bringing down the price of oil to levels below what both Moscow and Tehran need to finance their budgets.
"The timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to Sept. 13, 1985. On this date, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices. ... During the next six months, oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed. ... The Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not su ..

 "The timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to Sept. 13, 1985. On this date, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices. ... During the next six months, oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed. ... The Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive" ..
The price decline is no accident. In an Oct. 3 article in The Times, Stanley Reed noted that the sharp drop in oil prices "was seen as a response to Saudi Arabia's signaling ... to the markets that it was more interested in maintaining market share than in defending prices. Saudi Aramco, the national oil company, stunned markets by announcing that it was cutting prices by about $1 a barrel to Asia, the crucial growth market for the Persian Gulf producers, as well as by 40 cents a barrel to the United States." The Times also noted that with America now producing so much more oil and gas, "net oil imports to the United States have fallen since 2007 by 8.7 million barrels a day, 'roughly equivalent to total Saudi and Nigerian exports,' according to a recent Citigroup report."
Saudi Arabia doesn't have to 'defend prices' with an increasing US dollar. And maintaining market share is a win/win for both nations.
Bottom line: The trend line for petro-dictators is not so good. America today has a growing advantage in what the former Assistant Energy Secretary Andy Karsner calls "the three big C's: code, crude and capital." If only we could do tax reform, and replace payroll and corporate taxes with a carbon tax.
I had to laugh very loudly at the Friedman nonsense about petro dictators referencing Russia and Iran- but not Saudi Arabia, of course. Or the US for that matter.

From Friedman to Pepe Escobar: The Saudi oil war against Russia, Iran and the US
Rosneft Vice President Mikhail Leontyev; “Prices can be manipulative…Saudi Arabia has begun making big discounts on oil. This is political manipulation, and Saudi Arabia is being manipulated, which could end badly.”

A correction is in order; the Saudis are not being manipulated. What the House of Saud is launching is “Tomahawks of spin,” insisting they’re OK with oil at $90 a barrel; also at $80 for the next two years; and even at $50 to $60 for Asian and North American clients. 
The fact is Brent crude had already fallen to below $90 a barrel because China – and Asia as a whole – was already slowing down economically, although to a lesser degree compared to the West. Production, though, remained high – especially by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait - even with very little Libyan and Syrian oil on the market and with Iran forced to cut exports by a million barrels a day because of the US economic war, a.k.a. sanctions.
 Reuters / Hamad I Mohammed
image from RT
The House of Saud is applying a highly predatory pricing strategy, which boils down to reducing market share of its competitors, in the middle- to long-term. At least in theory, this could make life miserable for a lot of players – from the US (energy development, fracking and deepwater drilling become unprofitable) to producers of heavy, sour crude such as Iran and Venezuela. Yet the key target, make no mistake, is Russia.
Reread the quote from the Friedman article
 A strategy that simultaneously hurts Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Ecuador and Russia cannot escape the temptation of being regarded as an “Empire of Chaos” power play, as in Washington cutting a deal with Riyadh. A deal would imply bombing ISIS/ISIL/Daesh leader Caliph Ibrahim is just a prelude to bombing Bashar al-Assad’s forces; in exchange, the Saudis squeeze oil prices to hurt the enemies of the “Empire of Chaos.”

Yet it’s way more complicated than that.
Pepe continues- “Geopolitically, it gets juicier when we see that central to the House of Saud strategy is to stick it to Washington for not fulfilling its “Assad must go” promise, as well as the neo-con obsession in bombing Iran. It gets worse (for the Saudis) because Washington – at least for now – seems more concentrated in toppling Caliph Ibrahim than Bashar al-Assad, and might be on the verge of signing a nuclear deal with Tehran as part of the P5+1 on November 24.”
Washington’s agenda is “Assad must go” and any deal Washington signs with Iran will immediately be reneged on.

Pepe’s conclusion:
“The House of Saud believes it can dump a tsunami of oil in the market and back it up with a tsunami of spin – creating the illusion the Saudis control oil prices. They don’t. As much as this strategy will fail, Beijing is showing the way out; trading in other currencies stabilizes prices. The only losers, in the end, will be those who stick to trade in US dollars”
This time around Russia has China to trade with. Will this make a difference in outcome?
Who the hell knows!?

30 comments:

  1. Thomas Friedman is an effing dunderhead war criminal propagandist of epic proportions. I say epic because every week he seems able to raise the bar of complete and utter nonsense all the while finding new ways to piss intelligent people off with his idiotic sycophancy for TPTB. Really, if you want to know what kind of horseshit the elite are trying to peddle look no further than TF. The world is totally flat doncha know?

    Yeah, all of this Saudi demonization about them just killing everyone with their "evil oil plans" - as if they're NOT obedient US bootlickers and always have been - should be considered IMO as part and parcel of the Zionist propaganda meant to deflect attention away from the Israelis/Western Zionists as they pursue their actual evil plans in the ME.

    Seriously, in the last week or so we've had b at MOA spew almost the EXACT same nonsense as TF, Yves at nakedcapitalism spouting the EXACT same nonsense as TF and sundry other "respected" bloggers buying into this latest round of OBVIOUS Saudi demonization that they all really should just start telling everyone to go call their representatives and Senators and just demand that the redacted 28 pages of the official 9/11 report be released so everyone can just get on the "Saudis Did It" bandwagon and be done with it. Sheesh.

    I mean, remember how the Saudis and their supporters have been COMPLETELY dominating US foreign policy Establishment over the last couple of decades? No? Embarrassing.

    OT:
    Now that the latest elite propaganda meme in the US is everything ebola with the story and accompanying media-led hysteria getting louder and louder how long do you think before intelligent people will start smelling how fishy this whole thing stinks ESPECIALLY with the track record the war criminal leaders of the West have what with 9/11, Boston, Sandy Hook, MH-17etc etc etc?

    Gee, NO ONE seems to think it funny/coincidental that a renowned WHO official who had something to do with ebola just happened to be on the false flag attack in Ukraine this summer? Obviously the reports are conflicting but there's a lot out there about Glenn Thomas - who was buried just today, btw - being involved in some crazy shit. Oh well, probably all just a bunch of hooey, right?

    Let's just all run around and light our heads on fire though, kay?

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  2. Hi J Sorrentine;
    Yes, Friedman is a neo con,but, if you read carefully he isn't telling us about the evil Saudis
    He is telling us that in sync with the US- using the strength of the dollar and the fact that the Saudis have always sold their oil in the US dollars they have teamed up to wage an economic war- one they have done before.

    He is telling us exactly what you are saying
    "as if they're NOT obedient US bootlickers and always have been"
    Yes, he is telling us all the Saudis are bootlickers, not just to the US, but to Israel too.

    On the other hand Pepe is telling us this is not a US/Saudi plan, when very clearly it is
    Pepe is also telling us "the house of saud' is getting back at the US for not ousting Assad- that's baloney! This is what was being pushed at places like MOA and that is nonsense. To be honest I was surprised that Pepe would write such a thing?!
    His argument appeals more to an agenda of obfuscation- the whole lie about Obama having bad policy, Obama this and that. The Saudis exerting control over the US- if they wanted to harm the US they would stop selling their oil in US dollars and I don't see that happening

    So much of what has been said about the Saudis getting back at the US is bogus
    And the claims of the Saudi's hurting their own economy are also bogus

    As to the Ebola hype? I am very suspicious of it all. Considering what is going on with the enterovirus in North America. Including more then one death to date. I believe (either 3 or 4)
    However, I suspect that one is tied to vaccines hence the silence-
    By that I mean the recent adminstration of vaccines and the expression of virus immediately afterwards

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    1. Sorry, Penny, I guess I should have said "evil" is in the eye of the beholder. ;)

      IMO, ANY insistence that what we are witnessing regarding the ME/ISIS is either driven by our antagonism regarding the Saudis - the MOA, Nakedcaptialism, ZeroHedge, etc view - OR our FRIENDSHIP with the Saudis - Friedman's view - only serves to deflect attention away from the "indispensable" ally that the US has in Israel and the Zionist neocons who dominate our foreign policy.

      TF is an idiot but he ghostwrites for TPTB and with this bit of propaganda, by making it appear that the SAUDIS - and NOT the Israelis/Zionists - are the ones who are US driving foreign policy, TF is appealing to the MAJORITY of the US population who are angry about our involvement there: see, it's ONCE AGAIN, all because of the Saudis, see?

      Thus, TF's piece helps complete the FULL SPECTRUM propaganda campaign against the Saudis and AWAY from the Israeli/Zionists:

      Either the Saudis are cooperating with stupid Obama and others in the US Establishment on promulgating these unpopular ideas/activities

      OR the Saudis are attacking US interests in the region and they are the ones to blame a la 9/11 once again.

      See, it's important to keep in mind, IMO, that Friedman writes for the fake LEFT NYT whose readers are easily in the majority AGAINST more involvement in the ME, so tying it all back to the Saudis only solidifies the impression that they are evil.

      Sorry, I didn't have as much time to explain last night.

      Delete
    2. Hi J Sorrentine:

      apologies not necessary

      In the case of oil & Saudi Arabia they are the best allies of the US and Britain, for the simple reason Israel does not have oil to use in tandem with the US/Britain/NATO tyranny to force the hand of others.

      I would have never associated Friedman with the "left' however that is defined anymore?
      Likely because I just don't do the left right thing- at all
      I moved past that divide to conquer long, long ago

      Delete
    3. JS "TF is an idiot but he ghostwrites for TPTB and with this bit of propaganda, by making it appear that the SAUDIS - and NOT the Israelis/Zionists - are the ones who are US driving foreign policy"

      I did not get the impression Friedman was making it appear the Saudis were driving the US foreign policy- The concept I took away from his article and even from Pepe's is that the two nations are cooperating- partners- mutual beneficiaries.

      btw JS, you either have an admirer or a detractor not sure which but someone is searching you on the net. Interesting,no?

      Delete
    4. Yeah, I have gone beyond the left/right thing but the rest of the US society hasn't and the smug idiocy of the bourgeois fake "left" - they call themselves "left" - drives much of the Establishment policy faux debates.

      Yes, certainly the Saudis - and other minion states - could be considered partners of the war criminal US Empire as they and others would stand to gain from some of the latest machinations but I think that the NON-discussion of our "partnership"/subjugation by the Establishment and their propagandists - like TF - really has only one purpose and it is NOT to inform: it's to deflect attention away from Zionist machinations.

      Penny, I know that I sometimes sound like a monomaniac at times but it's beyond belief IMO that now after decades of bloody evidence and date have literally poured in showing that Zionists plans like Yinon/Clean Break etc are well underway and continue on to this day that as we witness the furtherance of those plans in Syria, Iran etc the Establishment is going to try and sell us on the idea that NOW it's all about oil or the Saudis or any such stuff.

      Certainly those are complimentary factors but let's all be honest: this murder and destruction was/is planned, called for and carried out at the behest of Zionist neocons in the US/Western Establishment so any talk of the other contributing factors only helps these criminals continue to hide from the scrutiny and punishment they deserve.

      Just as Friedman's NYT would NEVER state the truth about Gaza, Israel etc etc they would never publish something about the evil Zionists et al until - and this is an important piece of the puzzle - AFTER the crimes have been committed.

      My greatest fear is that after Syria is dissolved and greater Israel is a de facto entity THEN all of the "analysts" are going to say "Of course, it was the neocons/Israelis all along" but by that time it will be TOO LATE for anyone to do anything about it all.

      They'll expose their Judith Millers but it won't matter as their lucre will be a fait accompli.

      Delete
    5. Again, any attention giving to any thing but the Zionist neocons only serves their purposes. It's about oil, about Turkey, about Qatar, about Shia, about Sunni, about water, about ISIS, about anything BUT the fact that it is the US Empire driving all of this murder and mayhem and who drives the US Establishment? Zionist scum.

      Certainly, unless you are indefatigably monomaniacal and don't mind constantly reminding people about your issue ;), as a writer - Escobar et al - addressing auxiliary issues is your job but I caution them to not lose sight of what's happened: 13+ years ago the Zionist neocons - through the use of false flag terror and lies - launched a war of aggression against the planet that war continues to this day. None of them have been prosecuted - nay, they've all grown richer and more powerful if anything - and their plots continue to be carried out before our eyes.

      Other issues while interesting IMO pale in comparison to that of stopping this war of aggression.

      Yeah, I'm sure I have a lot of "fans". I hope it never inconveniences you, Penny.

      Delete
    6. J Sorrentine:

      I share your frustration. Seriously.
      Way, way back when I started pointing out the benefit/obvious participation to and by Israel when it came to Syria, I was immediately set upon by trolls- big surprise right?
      I began to moderate shortly afterwards- apparently I had 'arrived'
      My hope is that Syria will not be dissolved and greater Israel will be denied.

      But I do believe, firmly, that one reason Israel's hand is hidden is partly to prop up the perpetual victimhood meme in Israel and in the broader world

      If everyone realized how powerful Israel is and on a global scale including but not limited to within Africa, how much pity could their never ending whine fest garner for them? None

      The masses would realize that Israel is an expansionist, genocidal, conquering, history rewriting nation- much like it's benefactor the US.

      Instead the masses believe the victim with hostile neighbours nonsense

      Of course there is more to it-

      After the fact exposure- perception management!
      I have lots of opinions on why that is done, but, no time to get into that

      Delete
  3. Adding:

    Thus the Saudis are the boogeyman for every occasion: either they are attacking US interests in the region outright - boo hiss - or they are the ones driving/dominating unpopular US foreign policy - boo hiss - and - gee shucks - the Zionists and the Israelis are just NOWHERE to be found what with all the Saudi shenanigans going on.

    I mean, it certainly has NOT been the Saudis coming to the US every 3 months telling us to bomb Iran for the last decade plus and TF's insistence that it's the US and the Saudis against Iran and Russia can only be considered deflective propaganda.

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    1. Nope it hasn't been the Saudis cheering for a hit on Iran.....

      Delete
    2. Things are probably a bit more complicated, as Pepe said, but what is certain is his underlying conclusion:

      "Yet the key target, make no mistake, is Russia".

      The glee with which this move is related to the same type of maneuvers which led to the shaking of the USSR, is proof of that. The MSM is firmly convinced that "the sanctions bite". They refuse to see the facts on the ground.

      Delete
    3. Things are probably a bit more complicated, as Pepe said, but what is certain is his underlying conclusion:

      "Yet the key target, make no mistake, is Russia".

      Hey WizOz aren't they always more complicated?
      Yes, I do think this is an attempt to harm Russia and I also am seeing the writing on the wall that more is yet to come

      Delete
  4. A few items to consider:

    1. First, Saudi FX is pegged to the dollar. It is Oman - the back channel and home to various listening posts and bases - that has opposed monetary union from the getgo. Oman also opposed the defense force (GCC) Saudi called for at the end of last year (in an about face on NATO/GCC umbrella)

    2. Russian FX has been under spec attack but the dirty float makes DXY "strength" net accretive PPP

    3. The Libyan Anon airstrikes pinned on Egypt/UAE - like the latest US backed General offensive in Benghazi - were about insuring the free flow of Libyan crude to the market aimed singly at tipping the S/D balance and castrating any move lower by the Saudis (and incremental Libyan 500-800K). Even if the Saudi cut 1M barrels there has been no interruption of Kurd oil flow which is set to triple by 2015.

    4. The oil flush is just the last peg to fall in the outright assault on the commodity complex. Pull up charts of the food commodities, copper, rubber, cotton etc. You either believe in fair tales or another agenda is at play. One need only look at the corn markets for a picture of how a market goes from record low inventory to record high inventory in a year - worldwide droughts notwithstanding. Who are the big Ag exporters again> DEFLATION is the central bank dead horse...ergo deflation = CTRL print = FX war (which Dilma's Finmin coined ironically)

    5. The EIA has been on a mission for the past few years to pump the US exceeding Saudi and Russia meme (margin cost and decline rates stuffed under the table). IT has been OPEC that has been cutting its demand forecast (beg in August and another slash in Sept) for months whereas the EIA capitulated last month but dressed it up in a supply glut meme. The EIA just cut demand outlook again.For its part the IMF scripted a dire warning about Saudi (GCC) last year to which the Saudis fired back was unrealistic (deficits). An aside, the Saudis are opening the stock market but maintaining strict caps on foreign ownership

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  5. 6. It was Iran that threatened the price war months ago in wake of fallout over opposition to it taking on the rotating OPEC presidency. Iran promised to bring its production back no matter the price. That position changed nearer term but the oil price war threat was first tabled by IRAN. Here is what OPEC said back in MAy: "The amount of shale oil extraction in the US is to drop in several years, thus forcing the US to buy oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), says Abdalla Salem el-Badri, Secretary General of OPEC. " The FT spokesperson had this to say a month later: o Iran’s possible return fuels Opec tension: “Goldilocks period” of high prices and production near target

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-09/opec-plans-to-make-room-for-extra-oil-from-iran-iraq-libya.html
    http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_15/US-shale-oil-extraction-to-decrease-in-three-years-OPEC-Secretary-General-8885/
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bcf95300-f0de-11e3-9e26-00144feabdc0.html
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/opec-cuts-demand-outlook-by-most-in-three-years-on-shale.html

    7. The Russian and Iran just announced an joint development bank to clear trade.

    8. The Saudis are funding the Egypt-Russia weapons deal at ~3B

    9. The attack on an American in Saudi was a national guard incident; the King's son (promoted) runs that outfit which adds fuel to the long running speculation of internal splits. Was this a one off random incident or something else. All while the Qatar emir was in town (the same Qatar that just won backing for its opposition chief in Syria and the same Qatar that split the GCC by sending provocateurs to Saudi to stir instability months ago and the same Qatar that ejected a few MB leaders to Turkey in a halfway show of unity over Syria/Iraq)

    10. Yemen situation looks like a flaring of the wedge issues between Iran/Saudi. There had been some progress in Lebanon/elections as part of what appeared to be (and may be) a broader thaw. But over the past few weeks there is a full on PR assault on any and all warming between the 2. It is after all the Iranians who sent weapons to the Syrian Kurds. The Yemen situation kills to birds in flaring the Iran intervention (recalls Hez shipments capture) and sets up a point of interdiction for US drones. In the wake of the embassy events a year or so ago, the US rolled in a huge amount of heavy equipment.

    Summary: A massive PR campaign appears to be afoot across the Saudi-Iranian divide. Does it reflect a massive schism inside the Kingdom? Next Gen vs. next gen? The Saudi oil war meme is a joke kind of like the Citibank Prince suing Forbes for downgrading his net worth. Saudis marginal cost is counted on 1 hand. There is a reason Saudi has been cracking down on the media (social media). Are the Saudis blissfully unaware of the Hez / Iran /other claims about ISIS (especially after they threatened the fields). Was that blackmail? What about China, Saudi's biggest client? Their SPR is far from full and their imports increased last month. Saudi Arabia, Like Turkey, is caught in a pincer between internal factions and external affairs. If anything the Saudi Spin on lower oil impacting the shale is opportunism at best. If it says anything at all it is about the sanctity of the coalition of the willing. With Putin openly talking oil in rubles/yuan, the Egypt break and ailing leadership giving way to a next gen, the old rules no longer apply.

    Read B. Bhutto speech for a flavor. Surely this thinking isn't isolated to Pakistan.
    http://www.dawn.com/news/1137504/kashmir-dispute-a-un-failure-bilawal-bhutto

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  6. anon:

    I had thought about including the Kurdish oil flow info in this post, I have addressed it prior here, but, decided the post was getting way, way, way to long.

    for whatever reason the minute one posts a lengthier complex post- readers disappear? Everything can't be reduced to a few minute sound bite or a brief paragraph people :)
    Though I wish it could. ;)

    I did a post about Libyan oils sometime back and how it appeared to be making a comeback - in relation to EU/Russia/Ukraine

    btw anon I am not familiar with all those abbreviations- some yes, others no
    so I am going to have to look into that
    but thanks for the information :)

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  7. *9. The attack on an American in Saudi was a national guard incident; the King's son (promoted) runs that outfit which adds fuel to the long running speculation of internal splits. Was this a one off random incident or something else.*

    I saw that news- this fellow was a mercenary of some sort? Looked like a 'hit'
    a head shot? In a car- another was injured
    News is claiming they all worked for the same outfit Northrop Grumman corp
    Interesting?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/14/american-killed-riyadh_n_5982554.html

    "A gunman killed a U.S. national and wounded another in the Saudi capital of Riyadh on Tuesday, officials said, heightening Western concerns over security in the world's top oil exporter as regional unrest rises.
    Police later shot and wounded an assailant and then arrested him, said a statement from the police, carried by state media. The apprehended man worked at the same company as the two victims and had recently been dismissed from his job, Saudi Arabia's embassy in Washington said in a statement.

    "The attack resulted in the killing of one person and wounding another and it turned out they were of American citizenship," the police statement said.


    Americans killing Americans in Saudi Arabia?!

    The Saudi Embassy statement identified the man arrested by police as Abdulaziz Fahad Abdulaziz Alrashid, and said he was a dual Saudi-American citizen who was born in Washington state in July 1990.

    Interior Ministry spokesman Major General Mansour Turki said an investigation was under way into what appeared to be the first killing in years of a Westerner in Saudi Arabia.


    The Americans worked for Vinnell Arabia, a local affiliate of U.S. defense company Northrop Grumman Corporation which provides training and support services to the Saudi Arabian National Guard, said U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

    And this comment from the Italian guy made me lol

    An Italian working in the oil industry in Saudi Arabia said: "The targets are Americans, not really any others, so I'm not too concerned. But I did think about posting a few bumper stickers with the Saudi flag and Allah Akbar (God is Great) on my car."

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  8. Also keep in mind that Bandar rumor floated ahead of Sochi and the Chechnya angle in view of latest bombing and your call on regime change in Ukraine which is gathering steam. Was that the Saudis floating that rumor? Would it makes sense for the Saudis who are pretty openly split with the US to do a frontal on Putin? Are the King's handlers that stupid? I don't think so. Ergo there was another agenda behind that leak which IMHO was pure disinformation. Which makes the latest follow up about Saudi targeting Russian oil just another leg of that same media campaign (like the Saudi Ukraine weapons meme via Hungary). Amazing how they are everywhere and nowhere.

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  9. Finally pay no attention to the ongoing purge of shale assets by the majors who are quietly tip toeing out the back door.

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  10. In Iraq's eastern province of Diyala, another group of U.S. military advisors arrived in the Karkosh military base in the early morning hours, a source from Dijlah Operations Command, told Xinhua on the condition of anonymity
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-10/15/c_133719504.htm

    Due west to Iran nuke sites.

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  11. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-outlines-locations-for-potential-safe-zone-in-syria.aspx?pageID=238&nID=73054&NewsCatID=338

    Land bridge to Aleppo and Idilb

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  12. Hi Penny, you might find this interesting (re: Cyprus situation at present)

    http://incyprus.philenews.com/en-gb/local-news/4422/41711/russian-navy-to-conduct-rocket-fire-off-cyprus-while-ankara-sniff-for-oil

    Marie
    :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Marie

      I enjoyed your clown post!
      and thanks for the read

      Delete
  13. Hi Penny. Great article. The low price of oil which is designed to hurt Russia will accelerate the BRICS into breaking the petrodollar.

    The very much planned WW3. With the US/NATO (minus Israel) vs Russia/China and their allies.

    In the aftermath Israel will replace the USA as the superpower of the world.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks EWinters- I immediately thought of Edgar Winter
      I shudder at your comment regarding Israel- the theocracy in the ME

      Delete
  14. Good to read some comments from JSorrentine who shines light into dark places. Ziotrolls hate that, and you may have to deal with them sooner or later, Penny. Please don't be like b.

    I knew something was going on when the price of gasoline held steady in May and June notwithstanding vacation travel and oil climbing from $98 to $107 at the same time.

    The price of oil has been manipulated behind the scenes since before any of us were born. The "normal" price looking back to the end of WWII is about $30 a barrel in current dollars. All the chatter about oil falling to around $80 is annoying. The real issue is that the price of oil continues to defy gravity. Almost nobody writes about that. Almost nobody writes about what this manipulation is doing to ordinary people. Russia and Iran will adjust, but you can't say the same for the miserable millions around the globe who are involuntarily unemployed and underemployed during yet another fake recovery.

    I've seen this before. Give little people a break before the elections. After that squeeze the economic life out of them again and blame it on shortages of winter stocks, refinery problems, evil Arabs or whatever lie comes to mind. Same old story, and the lies aren't very creative.

    If you want facts and figures then peruse an article about the history of oil prices at http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm. Just look at the charts if pressed for time.

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    Replies
    1. Singing Sam: "Good to read some comments from JSorrentine who shines light into dark places. Ziotrolls hate that, and you may have to deal with them sooner or later, Penny. Please don't be like b."

      Hi Singing Sam

      I have dealt with ziotrolls for three plus years now. I am very well aware of their activities and abuses. As for being like b ? I'm not, don't think I could be?
      As long as topics are somewhat adhered to, I am pretty lenient. And no one attacks anyone else then you're free to comment.
      The way I see it- Everyone owns their opinion.
      That's about all I can say.
      Thanks for the links and I will minimally look at the charts
      "The price of oil has been manipulated behind the scenes since before any of us were born"

      I have no doubt of that!

      Delete
  15. As usual JSorentine has it exactly right.

    And Pepe is a fraud like no one else. 6 months ago he was insisting that the so-called Uighur uprisings, including mass public knifings, had nothing to do with Anglo-Zionist regime change/colour revolution operations -- all said in a carefully calibrated interview with another member of the alternative disinformation circus, James Corbett.

    Unless you hear the ant-Semite slur on an almost daily basis, you aren't doing your job. Or as in the case of Corbett and Escobar, you most definitely are.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Where-Wolf
      I recall Pepe saying that about the Uighers and admittedly that was a head scratcher- As in what the hell! I have done posts on that situation and the same patterns are present- It's almost always the same external connections to NGO and outside lobbying groups.

      Pepe's commentary in this case was a bit off, IMO.
      As for Corbett?? Ever since his interview with Skaskiw I have been more guarded about him- He does some interesting work... in some regards but in other ways......

      Delete
    2. BTW Where-wolf if J Sorrentine has it right, does that mean I have it wrong? ;)

      IMO J Sorrentine and I were both right! :)

      Delete

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