Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Round up: MH-17, Syria,Turkey, Falling oil prices- what's next? The Fed & that bogus Sony hack!!

My trusty lasso and I had rounded a bunch of news stories, over the week, safely corralling them but  not getting them into the barn.  Consider this post the metaphoric barn.


 Witness registered truthful by lie detector- May be taken in to protective custody
The investigators used a polygraph during the interview, which showed no evidence of the witness lying, he added.
“The facts were reported by the witness clearly and with no inconsistencies. The investigators lean towards considering them truthful. A polygraph examination confirmed them too,” the official said.


2015 could be a watershed year for Syria conflict

In a nutshell? The US will move into full war footing.

"The regime looks poised, analysts say, to take Syria’s second city, Aleppo, unless the United Nations can achieve a proposed freeze in fighting, which would allow much-needed aid to reach the embattled population and give parties a brief opening for diplomacy"
Since the "freeze in fighting" aka phony truce, I have mentioned repeatedly is just more smoke and mirrors. A means to prevent the elected Syrian government and it's national army from unifying Syria. Here is hoping the elected Syrian government can get the city back under control of  the Syrian nation. And rid the city of the united nations of terrorists that have taken it over

In case you missed this news of Syria taking back Aleppo from the takfiri, refresh your memory... Dec 15/2014- Syria: EU Jet Fuel Ban & Syrian Army takes back territory north of Aleppo

Conclusion from above post-  The Syrian government. The elected government. Should do exactly as it is doing and keep the rats out of Aleppo as much as possible Because that’s what the ceasefire or 'freeze' proposal is all about- Getting more terrorists in and expanding the air campaign!
Back to VOA:
“If the U.S. wants to gain the trust of the Syrian opposition, Hamid said, it would have to admit it got things wrong and address the issue of the Assad regime itself.

“The longer that Assad is in power, the longer Syria is divided,” said Andrew J. Tabler, senior fellow in the Washington Institute’s Program on Arab Politics.

“And the longer Syria is divided, the longer ISIS has free rein over the country.”

Taking Assad out has NEVER been off the table for the US. Anyone who has claimed otherwise is ill informed or intentionally misleading, I don’t know which? Assad is a source of unity. That's why the US wants him out!

Upping the ante

Might explain the latest nonsense spinning through the western media-The story about ISIS shooting down a plane and capturing it’s Jordanian pilot

Allegedly the captured pilot, but, who really knows?

As of right now, I don’t believe ISIS shot a plane down and I do not believe they captured a pilot
The story stinks! CBC has already slightly altered this story. What is italicized and quoted below is as the story originally appeared when initially saved.

"It was the first instance of a foreign soldier falling into the group's hands since the U.S.-led coalition began its air campaign against the extremists.

The cause of the crash was not immediately clear. Activists monitoring the conflict said Islamic State in Iraq and Syria fighters shot down the warplane"
Blah, blah, blah- coalition soldier captured by ISIS


Is Turkey really cooperating with ISIS? I've come to realize that is very very complicated situation!
I suspect the Turkish deep state and NATO affiliated  portion of the Turkish military is cooperating.  Not so sure about all the other parts of the Turkish state? The US has definitely turned on the country, that is presently NATO’s southern flank- because there is a new kid in town!
As mentioned here on November 14/2014- Kurdistan. NATO’s new Southern Flank?
"If all goes well for NATO, Israel and the Kurds.  Turkey will be supplanted as NATO’s Southern Flank. It seems to be just a matter of time.....I hold the opinion that Turkish leadership has become aware of what looks to be it’s impending betrayal"
Considering the possibility of Turkey being betrayed and destabilized. Thinking about the recent pipeline deal with Russia? What to make out of this very interesting new report?
From Iraq news. - Turkey confiscates 80 million litres of oil pilfered by  ISIS??

On Thursday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mouloud Jawish Ihsanoglu announced that, Turkey seized 80 million liters of oil coming from the wells controlled by the organization of the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). quoted Ihsanoglu on the sidelines of the first official visit to Tehran as saying, “Since the beginning of this year, Turkey confiscated 80 million liters of oil coming from the wells controlled by ISIS.”

Ihsanoglu denied the news about Turkey’s buying portion of oil sold by ISIS, adding that the Turkish authorities discovered and destroyed many of the oil pipeline built by the terrorist organization ISIS.
 So, on his first official visit to Tehran he admits Turkey has confiscated ISIS oil and denies selling it?

Falling Oil Prices- What’s next?

5 key things to watch for in 2015
"The oil price crash of 2014 upended the geopolitical chessboard. Worth watching in 2015 will be who can recover and dominate play — OPEC, Vladimir Putin or U.S. shale drillers"
US shale is a red herring. If the US starts to export it won't be US shale oil

"Energy companies have led losses among U.S. equities and bonds, with some investors raising concerns that the damage could spread. Others are preparing to take advantage of distress and consolidation"
 I worrisome scenario that has been previously mentioned

Will The U.S. Allow More Exports?
Lower prices are fuelling the debate over the 40-year-old ban on most exports of unrefined U.S. oil. Producers want access to higher overseas prices, while refiners want to keep their cost advantage.
Those shipments that are permitted are already surging, and the U.S. would probably export as much as 1.5 million barrels a day if the law changed, EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski told a House subcommittee on Dec. 11. The issue could gain prominence in the new Republican-led Congress, especially as Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, the ban’s most outspoken opponent, takes over the upper chamber’s natural resources committee.
It seems oxymoronic that lower fuel prices are fueling any debate over ending a ban on exporting unrefined oil? Producers want access to higher overseas prices? Refiners want to keep their cost advantage? What's going on?!?!

I believe we can take our hint of the big plan from the information that is to follow in the Financial Post article. First, a digression. Brief but worth pausing for.

This US export increase takes us right back to Canada "my home and native land" and that highly contested Keystone XL pipeline

Because US shale oil is not as great as has been announced it would seem if the US is going to begin exporting oil it’s going to be Canadian tar sands oil. As I had informed readers here some time ago- Canada supplies the US with the lions share of it’s oil- Not the middle east. And that fact has flown under the radar  of both the msm and many an alternative blogger.

Key Facts on Keystone XL

Energy Security: Tar Sand will not Reduce Dependence on Foreign Oil Keystone XL will not lessen U.S. dependence on foreign oil, but transport Canadian oil to American refineries for export to overseas markets.
  • Keystone XL is an export pipeline. According to presentations to investors, Gulf Coast refiners plan to refine the cheap Canadian crude supplied by the pipeline into diesel and other products for export to Europe and Latin America. Proceeds from these exports are earned tax-free. Much of the fuel refined from the pipeline’s heavy crude oil will never reach U.S. drivers’ tanks.
Back to Financial Post: 

Now the question is how much $60 a barrel will strain already unstable countries.

Before you read the last of the FP article- here is what I think may be happening. Saudi Arabia is pumping oil to cause global instability, in order to 'take out' several key nations, in cooperation with the US. Though I will consider that the cooperation is coerced. Take Venezuela out- and their oil off the market. Libya- their oil is out of the market- There will be no deal with Iran so that Iranian oil stays off the market and Russia..... ???????  Of course there is much that can go wrong in this plan. All the variables certainly can't be controlled.

That said it appears there is a plan to knock the named oil producers out of the market enabling the US, with Canada's cooperation, to monopolize/control more of the global oil market. Consider also that this plan if it comes to fruition will leave Europe worse off then it is today.
FP- "Venezuela, struggling with inflation and capital flight, faces soaring borrowing costs as investors weigh the risk of default. Libyan output almost quadrupled between April and October as fighting eased, only to drop 32 per cent in November. Iraq’s production is close to a 13-year high as the country struck a deal with its semi-autonomous Kurdish region to sell more oil as they wage war against Islamic State insurgents.

If Iran agrees to restrain its nuclear program in exchange for relief from Western sanctions, the Persian Gulf country said it aims to almost double output to 4.8 million barrels a day, an oil ministry official said Dec. 9. In Russia, the combined force of U.S. and European sanctions over the annexation of Crimea and the plunging value of its biggest export have triggered a recession, a currency crisis and runaway inflation"
And finally:
“Geopolitical risk is definitely one of the downsides of low oil prices,” said Brian Youngberg, an energy analyst at Edward D. Jones & Co. in St. Louis.

Geopolitical risk usually drives oil higher- This time the low oil price is driving/ pushing or creating all this geopolitical risk which takes us right back around to the potential for those "bail ins"  that have been repeatedly mentioned here

 The Fed

The Fed is heading for another catastrophe- Like a deja vu

"This bears an eerie resemblance to the script of 2004-2006, when the Fed’s incremental approach led to the near-fatal mistake of condoning mounting excesses in financial markets and the real economy"
The nonsensical distraction of the SONY hack

As for the so called SONY hack regarding the movie “The Interview”.... Laugh out loud.
That was to my mind, always a  PR campaign. The movie is going to play just as it was always going to on Christmas day! - Save your money cause any movie that needs such an extreme PR campaign is obviously a total piece of garbage!

USA Today- you can see "the Interview" after all


  1. Penny, regarding your analysis of falling oil prices, you leave out the 10 trillion ton elephant in the room: Saudi Arabia. The oil minister, Ali Naimi has already made it clear the Saudi intends to eliminate the high production cost oil from the market. It is common knowledge in the oil industry that Saudi can make, profit on oil as low as $30/ bbl, but extraction costs are much higher in the USA and N. Sea; this will ensure Saudi Arabia's market share and dominance in the oil market as well as make alternative Energy less attractive.

    1. Hi Sir Ivan
      "Penny, regarding your analysis of falling oil prices, you leave out the 10 trillion ton elephant in the room: Saudi Arabia"

      No, I haven't Sir Ivan. You just missed reading it. The above post was just a news round up- I was likely one of the first bloggers yakking on the Saudi Oil elephant way back here

      October 15/2014

      Oil Wars? US/Saudi Arabia vs Russia/Iran

      I followed that one up with several other updates including the one above

      Another one can be found here on November 4/2014
      Saudi Arabia, aids the NATO war machine, more oil price cuts- Attack on the BRICS

      After the October and November post there may be few more related in between the above post- you could check if you like?

      This is a much bigger game then making alternative energy less attractive- which btw this has nothing to do with
      so called alternative energy is very heavily subsidized by tax payer dollars- the profit is the tax payer subsidy and this oil game has much more to do with taking out nations, and perhaps triggering bail ins