An interesting piece, but, as of yet I'm not convinced of the reality of the P5+ 1 agreement
Benefits to Russia may be just one reason for this agreement to fail.
-The U.S. and five other global powers, including Russia, aim to complete negotiations with Iran by the end of June
- The price (of oil) could tumble another $15 a barrel once sanctions on Iran are lifted after a final nuclear deal, the Energy Information Administration said on April 7.
- Oil at $40 a barrel could shave almost 2 percent from Russian gross domestic product, according to estimates by the Russian central bank last month before the Iran framework was announcedBut, the lower oil price would be offset by other benefits
- Lower oil prices could be offset by Increased opportunities in a sanctions-free Iran, according to Radzhab Sattarov, head of the Iran committee at the Moscow Trade and Industry Chamber.
-Gazprom, its oil arm, OAO Gazprom Neft, and OAO Lukoil have had projects in Iran interrupted by sanctions, and Rosatom is seeking further contracts at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran.
-Russian-Iranian cooperation on oil shouldn’t be underestimated, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Monday, according to the Interfax news service. Russia is already supplying goods to Iran in exchange for oil, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.
-“For Russia, it is more beneficial if Iran becomes a normal country you can have regular business with,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. “There will be more competition but still Russia will have more advantages compared to American companies in doing business with Iran as the U.S. will remain the symbol of everything they hate.”
The political benefits may not only be in the Middle East.
-Iran could join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a group that includes Russia, China and Central Asian states, thereby boosting Russian ability to influence Iran’s policies in Central Asia and Afghanistan, Kozhanov said.
-“In Russia’s strategic thinking, Iran’s role is increasing,” Kayhan Barzegar, director of the Tehran-based Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies, said in a phone interview. “Russia and Putin have come to the conclusion that relations with Iran must increase.”So, will the P5 + 1 therefore fail?