Thursday, October 1, 2015

A2/AD Bubble, Syria and the Bigger Strategic Picture.

I stumbled across a rather large and interesting article posted at, new to me, site called FoxTrot Alpha    The excerpted information seems to be a compliment to my previous post Russia building an A2/AD Bubble over Syria/Levant

Looking for some input from the more military minded persons...
“On a larger scale, Russia’s overall strategy in the region is becoming clearer. With an reinvigorated relationship with Iran and a strengthening one with Iran’s good friend Iraq, Russia could soon wield some form of control over the northern Middle East, ranging from the Mediterranean to the edge of Afghanistan. The upside to such a strategy can be seen by recent agreements between Iran, Iraq and Russia to share intelligence on ISIS, with Russia being cleared by Iraq to perform intelligence flights over Iraq"
Overall, this strategy could be seen as a counter-balance against Sunni-led Arabian Peninsula states that mostly all have tight relationships with the United States”(And Israel)
Brief digression: Is this the reason the Saudi/Iran discord meme is playing big time- Mentioned by anonymous and quite frankly cannot be missed by anyone!
Begs your question: Who benefits?
The Saudi vs. Iran clash meme is in overdrive. Who benefits?
FoxTrot Alpha As far as Putin’s ability to control the airspace over Syria, he can do that right now by simply calling it his and launching limited fighter patrols. The U.S. would have to challenge it, or flat out destroy Russia’s capabilities in Syria in order to neuter it. The U.S. could easily do this at this point in time, but it is highly doubtful the Obama Administration would be even willing to float the idea of doing so. Such a standoff, or especially an attack, could lead to a game of potentially World War III inducing brinkmanship"
We are all aware that Russia spent a second day undertaking strikes cooperating with Syria and friends? Or at least I hope so?  Interestingly Jisr al-Shughur was struck. Whoa! That rings a bell. Early on in the destabilization of Syria- CIA backed mercs crossed the Turkish border and killed many- It sticks in my mind

"As time goes on, removing Russia from Syria or even challenging whatever airspace it wants to declare off limits — most likely that over western Syria to begin with — will become much harder. Russia has the ability to deploy advanced long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, some of which are the most advanced in the world. When paired with advanced short-ranged point-air defense systems already deployed to Syria, Russia’s S-400 SAM system could deny access to airspace within a 250 mile radius surrounding Latakia Air Base. Using the less advanced but still capable S-300 SAM system, the same one Russia is selling to Iran, they can defend airspace out to about 90 miles surrounding the SAM site’s location"


 S-300 air defense system:

"If counter-air multiple systems are deployed in a “layered” manner, accessing Russian-controlled airspace over and around Syria will become more problematic and dangerous, it is as simple as that. Even deploying the S-300 system would give Russia persistent anti-air capability deep into Syria and far out into the Mediterranean Sea, and even over Lebanon and southwestern Turkey.

In addition to its aerial arsenal in Syria, shore-based anti-ship missiles, land-based land attack cruise missiles and rocket artillery can also provide a defense against ships approaching Syria’s coast or potentially hostile land formations approaching from any vector. Additionally, if Russia were to eventually deploy conventional short or intermediate range Ballistic missiles to Syria, they could put U.S. and allied air bases and infrastructure at risk within many hundreds of miles of Russia’s outpost in Syria"
The big picture is that Putin will likely setup an invisible anti-access fortress over his bases in Syria, one that can keep NATO and allied capabilities at bay should Moscow decide it is necessary to keep them away. A similar anti-access scenario has been set up in Crimea, with the potential to put any ship in the Black Sea and any aircraft in the northern part of the Black Sea at risk.

The thing is, these are all options, none of them have to happen, but they are readily possible under the current circumstances. Putin knows that options are worth their weight in gold to any military commander, and his current force posture in Syria gives him just that, a lot of options.
Above all else, Russia’s military moves in Syria and its geopolitical moves around the globe are aimed to embarrass and to weaken America’s image as the world’s only super power and as a reliable and brave player when it comes geopolitics and fighting terror"


Jay Dyer speaks has recently addressed the topic of state craft and the projection of power in some very interesting ways- I’ll save that for another day. However as I read through this article and in particular the last paragraph “embarrass and weaken America’s image and the world’s only superpower” it occured to me that Putin had indeed projected/promoted Russia’s statecraft in a far reaching a rather remarkable fashion.

There is more to read at Fox Trot Alpha & to the more military minded some input would be greatly appreciated :)

19 comments:

  1. I thought you might like this.

    http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2015/09/american-allies-in-syria-their-shameful.html

    Your post is right on, the belt way is flying around in limos trying to figure out how to save their incomes:) Homeless works for me.

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    1. hey jo
      I am definitely going to read that
      Homeless works for me too and ditto for Canada!

      Delete
  2. your source partners w/ Gizmundo + others and evidently gets some of their info from Kimberly Kagan and associates.
    ISW
    Blog

    Home
    Institute for the Study of War

    and yes, that Kagan of the Kagan / Nuland jewish neo-con klan

    Peace, Karin

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    Replies
    1. ISW is a source I've relied on previously myself

      What intrigued me was the description of Russia's ability to obstruct the US
      It was very much in keeping with the A2/D2 strategy
      Anything to add wrt that aspect, because that's what I'm after
      Then of course there is the statecraft aspect?
      What do you think about these subjects? Curious?
      Thanks Karin

      Delete
  3. I think this A2 stuff is nothing more than military mystification for what is a simple chess move - occupying the space.

    Up till now the US (through proxies) has been occupying the space such as in Ukraine and making it difficult for Russia to counter it because they will have to physically attack the US (proxy) forces to dislodge them. Russia would have to start 'the war', in other words. Advantage, the US.

    This time Russia has occupied the space and if the US doesn't like it, it will have to attack and start the war. Advantage, Russia.

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    1. hey james! - A2/AD is just a name or label for a certain tactic- I'm sticking with it because it's a simple term that is explainable to all-

      You are correct it is more or less occupying a space, but I prefer, controlling the space. And I'll explain why...

      Occupy is a loaded word. I don't see Russia as an occupier of the space for the simple fact there are no supporting Russian troops for an occupation-

      However they are controlling the space and that is what A2/AD implies- control of a space/ blocking an attacker

      So Russia is controlling the space and the US is very unhappy about it
      I believe an 'occupation' of sorts is coming, but, it won't be Russians doing the occupation- I intend to address that today

      Delete
  4. Hi Penny, just in
    https://strategika51.wordpress.com/2015/10/02/syrie-duel-aerien-entre-des-sukhoi-su-30-sm-russes-et-des-f-15-israeliens/

    It looks like the A2/AD bubble over Irak works.
    Quick summary of the article:
    4 Israeli F15 have been intercepted by 6 Russian Sukhoi 30. The Israeli were doing their usual round where they come in from the sea side to overfly Latakié and were surprized that they had a welcoming party. They fled in high speed by crossing Lebanon. The Lebanese army confirmed officially at 2313Z local time that 4 planes overflew the country at high speed. Of course, mainstream media are silent about that incident.

    PS: no clue on the credibilty of that source as it's the first time I've seen it.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Hello Gallier

      I put the link through translate so everyone can read it

      "EXCLUSIVE-Strategika 51: Six Russian multirole fighter Sukhoi SU-30 SM type have put to flight-type Israeli fighters McDonnell Douglas F-15 off the Syrian coast.

      Israeli aircraft flying for months Syrian airspace and especially Naval Air Station Latakia bridgehead of Russian forces in Syria. Israeli aircraft generally follow a fairly complex flight plan and approach Latakia from the sea

      In the night of 1 to 2 October 2015, six Russian Sukhoi SU-30 took off from SM Syrian airbase Hmimim towards Cyprus before intercepting position attack four Israeli F-15 fighters.

      Surprised by a situation as unexpected and probably not prepared for a dogfight with one of the best Russian multirole fighter, Israeli pilots have quickly turned back to the south, flying at high speed Lebanon.

      The Lebanese army has officially announced to Z 2313 (local time) that four "enemy aircraft" (Israeli) had crossed the Lebanese airspace.

      This "incident" between Russian and Israeli warplanes struck stupor command of the Israeli Air Force, which held that a possible air battle between the Israeli F-15 and the Russian Su-30 would have led to the destruction of four Israeli aircraft. Israel has strongly protested to Moscow this incident but the Russians demanded an explanation for the presence of Israeli fighter planes full Syrian airspace. This incident indicates that the protection of Syrian airspace is now under the protection of the Russian air force. Causing gnashing of teeth in Washington.

      The incident was ignored by the major news agencies but political and media relay of Israel in the United States, Europe and the Arab world will strengthen efforts to demonize Russian support to the Syrian government.
      Russian Sukhoi Su-30 SM. This multirole fighter based on the Su-30 family of MK is admired by all US military analysts"

      I'm going to scout around the news feeds and see if there is anything else on this incident
      Much appreciated!

      Delete
    2. Though it would make sense that Israel would 'test the waters'

      Delete
    3. overflying is illegal yet israel does it with impunity

      Delete
    4. I checked a little bit the archives of this blog and it looks quite interesting.
      For instance he has an entry for the Russian military buildup from last monday (28th) where he says that there are a lot of SU-30, SU-27, SU-25 and SU-24 accompagning the IL-76 transport planes. At that time, all the media, mainstream, alt or even conspi would only ever mention 4 SU-30. Now it's obvious, that Russian air forces were much bigger than that, but nobody had something on that.
      So, I will put that site on my rss feed to see .

      Delete
    5. Hey Gallier?
      Really?!- I'm going to have to head back there and browse through the archives myself.
      Yes, all that was going around was about the 4-SU-30's...

      But it would have made sense there was more because look how long Russia has been involved with Syria? Decades. But the information that was forthcoming all over the place was lacking and contrived, very contrived.

      If you find anything else of interest let me know?
      Thanks!

      Delete
    6. Oh, it looks like I managed to lose a message again. Ok, will rewrite it somehow.
      The Iran holocaust cartoon contest pictures are funny. Most of them I have never seen even if I follow several sites that published others of them.
      I suppose that site is somehow north African, Tunisia or Algeria something like that, certainly not French.

      Delete
    7. Hey Gallier!
      Tell me if you see anything else, cause for me it's a bit of a pain.
      And I've had no chance to get back there because between home renos and just keeping on top of stuff- I'm exhausted
      take care and thanks for the link :)
      jo posted it at Ziad's place so it got even more reads
      thanks jo!

      Delete
  5. FYI penny
    Syria: Air Duel Between SU-30 Russian Sukhoi SM and Israeli F-15
    "EXCLUSIVE-Strategika 51: Six Russian multirole fighter Sukhoi SU-30 SM type have put to flight Israeli fighters type McDonnell Douglas F-15 off the Syrian coast.
    Israeli aircraft flying for months Syrian airspace and especially Naval Air Station Latakia bridgehead of Russian forces in Syria. Israeli aircraft generally follow a fairly complex flight plan and approach Latakia from the sea.
    In the night of 1 to 2 October 2015, six Russian Sukhoi SU-30 took off from SM Syrian airbase Hmimim towards Cyprus before intercepting position attack four Israeli F-15 fighters.
    Surprised by a situation as unexpected and probably not prepared for a dogfight with one of the best Russian multirole fighter, Israeli pilots have quickly turned back to the south, flying at high speed Lebanon.
    The Lebanese army has officially announced to Z 2313 (local time) that four "enemy aircraft" (Israeli) had crossed the Lebanese airspace.
    This "incident" between Russian and Israeli warplanes struck stupor command of the Israeli Air Force, which held that a possible air battle between the Israeli F-15 and the Russian Su-30 would have led to the destruction of four Israeli aircraft. Israel has strongly protested to Moscow this incident but the Russians demanded an explanation for the presence of Israeli fighter planes full Syrian airspace. This incident indicates that the protection of Syrian airspace is now under the protection of the Russian air force. Causing gnashing of teeth in Washington.
    The incident was ignored by the major news agencies but political and media relay of Israel in the United States, Europe and the Arab world will strengthen efforts to demonize Russian support to the Syrian government."
    https://strategika51.wordpress.com/2015/10/02/syrie-duel-aerien-entre-des-sukhoi-su-30-sm-russes-et-des-f-15-israeliens/

    ReplyDelete
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    1. jo thanks for helping me out at Ziad's :)

      Delete
  6. ‪#‎Russia‬ says air strikes to last ‘3 to 4 months' & accuses US of 'pretending' to bomb ‪#‎ISIS‬
    http://ibt.uk/A006Nyg

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    1. I saw that news today also- thanks for sharing it

      Delete

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