Wednesday, November 4, 2015

What if Russia attacked Syria's Kurds on behalf of Assad?: Rudaw

Interesting and provocative read!
btw: we aren't talking "Syria's Kurds" the militias are chock full of PKK aka Turkey's Kurds

Atlantic Council- The Kurds and the future of Assad

PKK fighters returned to Syria during the civil war. Jordi Tejel, an expert on Syrian Kurds says, “already in April 2011 the PKK sent one thousand armed fighters to establish the YPG in Syria.
The PYD’s militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), created by former PKK fighters....

Rudaw piece authored by: Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence analyst and a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the President of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C.

Ties nicely in with this news: US Moves f-15's to Syria 
F-15Cs are armed with only air-to-air weaponry, making the plane unnecessary in operations against ISIS, which doesn't have a functioning air element. Instead, the jets could have one of two purposes in the region — they could either be used to help protect Turkey's border against periodic incursions by Syrian jets and helicopters.
Or, under certain circumstances, the F-15Cs could be used to help counter Russian activity over Syria. A hypothetical no-fly zone over northern Syria near the Turkish border, for instance, would have to be maintained using planes that could enforce the zone against both Russian and Syrian aircraft.
In plain talk the F-15's may be used to protect the NATO created, "greater Israel" expansion/ally, inevitable terror state - Kurdistan.   

One of my commenters had asked?
 AnonymousNovember 4, 2015 at 5:44 AM

All of which raises the interesting question re IDF: what are those A2A US F15E for?
 Perhaps the US/NATO tyrants are going to try a 'no fly' zone to protect their Kurdish terrorists ? Oh yes, the YPG/PKK  are indeed  NATO backed terrorists. Armed and backed by NATO/US/Israel. Fighting against the SAA. Ethnically cleansing both the Kurd and non Kurd Syrian populace, burning their homes, stealing their property and raping women.  Calling in airstrikes to kill civilians etc., These terrorists have done it all

My blog is not a place for NATO disinfo spreaders- So the reality of the NATO/Kurd terrorism has always been addressed here! In literally 100's of posts going back years.

Let's move on to the Rudaw piece:

Russia’s foray into Syria is one of opportunism delivered to them by a leadership vacuum created by the west. The stated intent is to fight ISIS, however the real victims of this will likely be the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syrian Kurds in the short term.

It has been 45 years since the Soviet Union intervened in the Middle East. In 1970, during the war of attrition, the Soviets sent men and equipment to support the Egyptian army in an ongoing fight in the Sinai. Now Russia is moving in to fill a new void. Then, as now, one of the main objectives is to show the flag and secure concessions from client states as well as the west.  Now, unlike then, there does not appear to be any western constraints on Russian ambition. The introduction of Russian forces and equipment can very quickly turn the tide of battle in favor of the Assad regime. Currently the Syrian forces, supported by Iran, have fought various opposition groups including the YPG and the FSA while both of these are also engaged fighting ISIS.

From the military perspective Russian interest in the Levant has always been to maintain a warm water port for a Mediterranean fleet. Politically they will have a leverage point in the region added to the support they gave to Iran during the 5+1 talks on the nuclear deal.

Western response has been muted other than Secretary Kerry and Secretary Ashton Carter contacting their opposites in Russia and President Obama calling the move a mistake. Europe shows signs of acquiescence hoping that cooperation with Russia will end the flow of refugees into the EU. Many are hoping that Russian forces can stem the tide of ISIS and end that nightmare with direct action the west is unwilling to provide.

The problem with this analysis is it ignores the fact that ISIS is not the only enemy of Assad and not even the first. While ISIS remains the number one enemy in the eyes of the west it does not threaten Russia other than its attacks on Syrian population centers which destabilized Assad. Russia has maintained a naval presence in Syria since the days of the cold war. The base in Tartus serves as a logistical and support depot. The new build-up is taking place at the port city of Latakia whose airfield is being used to support a number of Russian fighter jets as well as men and equipment.
Ironically the NATO supported Kurdish state puts Erdogan & Assad in the same position.  Each leader facing the destruction of their nation's territorial integrity. Bet all the Erdogan bashers hadn't considered that reality?
On the question of how far this build-up will go and what the end state is requires an analysis of the equipment. While most aircraft are ground support type there have also been reports of SU-35 Flanker fighters, the most advanced in the Russian arsenal. The Russians have also deployed SS-21 Surface to Air (SAM) units. This last must be questioned as none of Assad’s opponents possess any type of aircraft. The rest, T-90 tanks and Armored Personnel Carriers, are consistent with a ground campaign.

Should all this build-up be for the sole purpose of defeating ISIS then the world will rejoice, but nothing is ever as it seems. Assad is a pariah among nations only supported by Russia and Iran. The call for Assad to step down preceded ISIS as a menace. Calls now to accept a long term phase out of Assad to be replaced by another member of the Alawite sect should be a non-starter in any negotiated peace. It would mean very little to the Russians who ends up in charge of Syria, as long as they retain their base(s) and political leverage. The easiest way right now would be to ensure a victorious and compliant Assad. This would require the removal of threats to Assad and his government. The three threats of course are ISIS, the FSA and the Kurds.

There is some analysis that says Iran does not want ISIS defeated, just contained, in order to justify continued Iranian presence in the region. Iran and Russia are joined in this fight. The FSA is a small threat to Assad but is disorganized, infiltrated and basically dysfunctional. Without continued support from the west and assistance of the YPG they will have very little chance of success. Which brings us to the Kurds who are a functioning threat to the regime. With increasing success and continuing western support the Syrian Kurds have pushed ISIS back and are on the brink of their capitol Raqqa.  
The Kurds a functioning threat to the Assad government, same as in Turkey. Oh my!
The Syrian forces fighting for Assad have rarely engaged ISIS, they are more involved fighting FSA in Idilb and the FSA, YPG and Sunni Militias in Aleppo. Idilb and Aleppo are much closer to the new Russian base than any of the ISIS locations. The question now becomes how Russian forces will define terrorist and enemies of Assad. As we have seen when Turkey joined the fight against ISIS their more immediate goal was the PKK.

The biggest question will be to what extent the west, mostly the US, is willing to support their allies (Kurdish militias) against Russian aggression. Should Russian Close Air Support (CAS) aircraft appear over FSA or YPG positions, protected by Russian fighter aircraft, will the west engage in aerial combat? Should Russian tanks and combat forces begin to engage anti-Assad forces will the west support their allies with CAS missions as they do today against ISIS? Sadly I believe the answer will be no, at least at this point in time. 
Thinking about the F-15's
The threat of military action by the west is seen as an empty one by Russia. Russia saw the weakness during the episode of Syria’s use of chemical weapons. Russia quickly negated the military option. The west will now, as then, resort to a long drawn out diplomatic response which may result in a negotiated settlement, but by then the Kurds and other anti-Assad forces will have been badly degraded if not completely defeated. 
Well, please do share some relevant thoughts about this article?

 Considering the movement of the planes? Consider the massive weapons drops to Kurds in Syria's north? Consider the benefit to Israel from the creation of Kurdistan? Think about the recent win by Erdogan and why the 'west' seems so upset with it? How might this all play out?

 Don't miss two earlier posts!



  1. Trolling will not be tolerated- period

  2. Hi Pen,
    The positioning of the F15C's can also be seen in terms of a bargaining chip at the Vienna peace conference. The neocons are past masters of creating a problem (either threatened or in actuality) for their opponent and then negotiating the removal of their unilaterally imposed problem in return for a concession.

    Up till now this tactic has worked well for them because opponents have not insisted on imposing a penalty for creating the problem in the first place. So they have had all to gain and nothing to lose. It has been a game of bluff and successfully so but I think that situation is rapidly changing.

    Being psychopaths, the neocons- bankers - zionists, call them what you will, will continue a strategy that works for them. They are not particularly creative. So this makes them predictable to those who are paying attention; and the Russians are paying attention.

    The israeli and U.S. Administrations continue to do what they do and this is leading them into a bear trap set on their well-trodden path of past behaviour.

    1. "The positioning of the F15C's can also be seen in terms of a bargaining chip at the Vienna peace conference"

      That could be part of this at least it can't be discounted

  3. Paul Davis says:

    "...Should all this build-up be for the sole purpose of defeating ISIS then the world will rejoice, but nothing is ever as it seems. Assad is a pariah among nations only supported by Russia and Iran. The call for Assad to step down preceded ISIS as a menace. Calls now to accept a long term phase out of Assad to be replaced by another member of the Alawite sect should be a non-starter in any negotiated peace..."

    This paragraph tells us all we need to know about this writer. He has NO respect for the sovereignty of Syria (or any other nation, no doubt). He doesn't even pay lip service to principles of democracy. It is all a zero sum power game to him. He ASSuME's that Russia is just as pathological as he is...thinking that Russia will accept any Alowite...never mind that the people have chosen and continue to support Assad. A curse be upon him is all I can add.


    1. That's an insightful comment, Greencrow.

      It's amazing how these types project their psychopathology onto others and particularly onto their opponents.

    2. gc & james

      indeed that is an insightful comment- because lays bare the complete disregard for Syria, it's people and the democratic claims the US is so well known for.

      ALSO: "The call for Assad to step down preceded ISIS as a menace"

      This validates the the ISIS as US proxy theory. The US tried using the "arab spring' to get Assad out- That failed since the Syrians had the benefit of watching the phony spring wreak havoc in other nations.
      The saw it coming- Were better educated and more affluent- able to access alternative media sources etc
      So the spring or plan A failed.
      Plan B, with the goal of removing Assad still imperative saw the NATO proxy of "ISIS" enter the picture- This gave the US and company the in they needed to physically intervene in Syria.

      Davis suggest no other replacement Alawite will do- because of course he's talking total destruction/balkaniztion of Syria-

    3. ISIS was Plan C, in fact. Plan-B was Ghouta false flag. ISIS came after that.

    4. Thanks Gallier!
      I forgot about the Plan B false flag chemical attack!
      As soon as I read your comment, I'm like doh!
      So plan A- Arab Spring
      Plan B- False flag at Ghouta
      Plan C- NATO proxy ISIS

      this is the reason I never buy the meme of 'not knowing what to do' and 'no real plan', other crap like that- there is no way in hell the planners don't have more then one plan!
      If I am faced with a challenging situation I always give myself options and alternatives. If I do that as a person, how is it reasonable to believe or sell the bogus memes we keep getting!

  4. Kurds face an existential problem, namely how to fund themselves in the absence of good relations with Turkey. US has pre-announced the Kurd split but Barzani apparently stands in the way vis-à-vis Turkey. Enter the Kurd protests and reformists. For the moment Israel is buying the Kurd oil. And the same Swiss traders who were trucking Kurd oil pre pipeline are said to be working ISIS oil in Turkey. But if Turkey keeps the pressure on the PKK and the oil chokehold remains, the Kurds will have to find another more secure outlet for the oil, no matter how good relations are with certain elements inside Kurdistan/Iraq. Enter the infamous Peters map, the Russian moves in the Black Sea (& latest announcement of energy find off Romania) and the Russian base in Armenia. The move also gives the Kurds a contiguous border with the NATO push into Georgia.

    1. The Iran /PUK angle

    2. "Kurds face an existential problem, namely how to fund themselves in the absence of good relations with Turkey."

      Why would this be a problem for the Kurds? The article from Foreign Affairs (mouthpiece for the American Establishment) states that the Kurds have a "partnership" with the US -

      "The goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP government is clear. They want to unravel the partnership between the PKK-affiliated Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the United States

      It follows then that the Kurds are funded by the US."

      Have the Kurds ever been funded by Turkey?

    3. "Kurds face an existential problem, namely how to fund themselves in the absence of good relations with Turkey"

      This is likely a reference to Barzani- he cooperated with Turkey in order to ship oil out of Iraq via Turkey- This cooperation annoyed Baghdad to no end.

      Barzani is less then favoured by the PKK and we see the Gorran movement- affiliated with PKK making a load of trouble in northern Iraq, right now - Including murdering members of the Barzani government

      I covered that in this post

      PKK seems to be the uniting FORCE for the Kurdish state- They have oil revenues, they are drug runners and likely human traffickers to boot
      So they have resources and have always been under the NATO umbrella. They would have to be because there is no way they would have gotten away with the level of criminality, they've been and still are engaged in for so long. The PKK is a perfect, and ideal NATO left behind group. As I've said for quite some time now..

    4. that's an interesting article anonymous- I've saved it so I can read it a few times---

    5. Thanks Penny. Loyalty is all very well but in the end 'business is business', I guess.

    6. and it seems the business of war, drugs and misery is very big business
      you're welcome james


    Interesting development

    1. wonder which rebels, because there was some news that Russia was looking to work with rebels who wanted to keep Syria's territory intact
      this would immediately leave out the kurds

  6. , “already in April 2011 the PKK sent one thousand armed fighters to establish the YPG in Syria.

    The PYD’s militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), created by former PKK fighters....

    I had hoped the significance of this fact would be appreciated
    This makes it very clear that the PKK was employed by the US/NATO/Israel psychos to destabilize Syria- April 2011 puts the PKK creating the YPG , training fighters at the front door of the Syrian destabilization

    I caught a whiff of the destabilization March 2011 via early news reports-

    Very first post written on the Syrian Destabilization
    March 24th 2011-Western backed Social Media "revolution" coming to Syria

    If the PKK was already present in Syria in April 2011- they were part and parcel of the planning and early stages of destabilization- which means as my theory went years ago, it was likely Kurds that killed that one Kurdish leader who was more friendly to the Assad government

    " So let's take a look at the assassination of Kurdish opposition figure Meshaal Tamo.
    Perhaps Kurds, trained by Israel, killed one of their own?"

    And it was likely PKK who launched the earliest attack at Jisr Al Shigour

    Is it any wonder when I read the Kurd/victim- boohoo meme I just want to puke!
    Once one really, really looks at what's going on and what's been going on!

  7. We have studied all the possible threats. We sent there not only fighter jets, attack aircraft, bomber aircraft, helicopters but also missile systems. As various force majeure circumstances may occur," Bondarev said

    No Fly Zone

    1. I saw that news today and of course thought of the potential for a no fly zone

  8. As the US deploys specops they have specifically called out Lebanon and Jordan. THe US has been dumping huge amounts of wepaons into Lebanon for the past few years with virtually every major player from France (via Saudi money) to Iran to the US rushing supplies into the fractious country. Still no government and still no offshore energy auctions. Israel has made clear in declaration after declaration the next Lebanon War is an fait accompli (as opposed to Crimea in Russia).

    So with Russian anti air in country that blows the free fly zone for IDF. It also raises the question if the Spec ops guys going n are there to train Kurds or track Russian SAM sights?

    US and Israel have a problem .


    2. more reading!
      I simply don't spend enough time doing that ;)


  10. I am wondering also if the impetus for the implementation of the no fly zone was the AKP election win?

    Erdogan said something that struck me as odd for a national election win
    In other words it was not a statement for the domestic audience....

    "Is this your understanding of democracy?" he said. "Now a party with some 50 percent in Turkey has attained power... This should be respected by the whole world, but I have not seen such maturity."

    big voter turnout
    High voter turnout: More than 85% of the 54 million registered voters cast their ballots

    When I read this, I thought...he is talkin' to the NATO nations who have their knives in the nation state's back- Many knives

    1. US Army Colonel Steve Warren said that the United States would continue supplying munitions to the anti-ISIL rebel forces in Syria, except for the Kurdish militants, because Turkey, a US ally in fight against the Islamic State, believes they pose a threat.

      Report shave the PKK ceasefire DOA

    2. hey anonymous 9:59 am, i did see that news this morning, but,???

      It's not the first time I've seen the same thing said
      and is it little more then lip service?
      Time will tell....

    3. And Turkey is clearly not taking the US at it's word

      " We will monitor how it is implemented," Bilgic told reporters"

      Definitely not taking the US at their word!!!

  11. When our fighter started flying along the border with Turkey, the system showd that some sort of anti-missile defense systems were attempting to lock onto the warplane, so the pilot was forced to make an anti-missile maneuver in just seconds, and entered Turkish airspace a bit, which we honestly admitted to,” Bondarev told Russia’s Komsomolskaya Pravda daily in an interview.

    Read more:

    1. October 3

      "On Oct. 20, the US Navy announced the destroyer Ross successfully intercepted a ballistic missile in the North Atlantic Ocean as part of an integrated air- and missile-defense demonstration with eight other nations. The destroyer is based on the Spanish Navy Base of Rota, near the Mediterranean"

      here is the USS Porter on way to Georgia Oct 7 in the Dardanelles