Friday, February 12, 2016

From Aleppo to Munich and Back- The Ceasefire that isn't

Quickly saved this article last night:
U.S. and Russia Spar Over Terms of Possible Syrian Cease-Fire
I`ll highlight the interesting bits
The U.S. and Russia on Thursday sparred over terms of a possible cease-fire in Syria, as they and other world powers met in Munich to try to restart peace talks that had collapsed amid an escalation of military operations by Russia and Iran in aid of the Assad regime.
Russia has offered to halt some of its bombing in support of the Syrian government’s forces by March 1, a U.S. official said. The U.S. has responded by calling for an immediate cease-fire, arguing that Russia would use the extra time to extend territorial gains for the regime and decimate U.S.-backed opposition forces.
Russia has NOT agreed to cease it's bombing entirely. I've no doubt the US will continue with it's bombing/resupplying of killers.
Meanwhile, meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described Moscow’s cease-fire proposal as “quite specific.”
The entire reason a ceasefire is being discussed at this time is due solely  to the advances made around Aleppo which could possibly put Syria back together! The significance of this was discussed a month ago in this post: January 16/2016: Syrian Endgame Could Begin in Aleppo- Who Would Block This Pivotal Win?

‘Ask yourself what group or organization would want only to deny Syria’s combined allied forces from taking back Aleppo?  The answer is NATO”
WSJ continues:
Russia, which has altered the balance of the five-year-long Syrian war with an intense bombing campaign on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has said it is ready to negotiate a cease-fire. But countries backing the opposition to Mr. Assad, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are skeptical because a cease-fire would entrench Mr. Assad’s recent resurgence in a conflict that has already killed more than a quarter million people.
With world powers still far apart on Syria’s future, diplomats were trying to agree, at the least, on humanitarian aid for hundreds of thousands of people caught in the fighting. A deal on humanitarian aid, such as airdrops into besieged cities, could be tied to a broader agreement, some diplomats said, to restart United Nations-mediated peace talks in Geneva that collapsed last week.
“We have to see something,” said Salem al-Meslet, a spokesman for an umbrella group of U.S.- and Saudi-backed opposition forces that withdrew from last week’s Geneva talks amid the fresh Russian and Iranian pro-regime offensive. “We have to see food go to those children who are starving to death.”
Humanitarian aid will include arms:Aleppo: Syrian Actions- NATO Reactions

A pro-regime military campaign for the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, backed by Russian warplanes and Iran-linked militias, undermined the Geneva peace talks and allowed the regime to retake territory from the opposition. That put pressure on Western and Gulf governments, which are fighting the extremist group Islamic State and supporting insurgents fighting Mr. Assad, to bolster their efforts on the ground.
Translation: Aleppo cannot be allowed to go back to Syria as it was. So the US is suddenly willing to talk ceasefire. Hoping to impede SAA advancement and re arm the opposition.

Phillip Smyth, an analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said winning Aleppo would give Iran and Russia tremendous leverage in affecting an eventual political settlement favorable to them and the regime.
As mentioned way back
In Brussels, coalition defense ministers also met on Thursday to assess the military campaign against Islamic State. American Defense Secretary Ash Carter opened that gathering by saying new efforts by the U.S. and fresh contributions by its allies would have an impact on the ground in Syria and Iraq.
Translation; Altering the balance of power on the ground. We already know additional special ops have been sent into Syria. We already know the US will lead all ground force ops. We already know the US is planning to pour weapons to the "opposition" aka NATO backed terrorists. Ashton Carter promises these moves will result in gains on the ground before the next meeting mid march.

He promised the assembled officials that they would see gains by the time U.S. military leaders convene another conference in mid-March. “By then, at the latest, we should begin to see tangible gains from those capabilities, the ones the coalition is already bringing to bear,” Mr. Carter said.
Mr. Carter ticked off a list of stepped-up contributions the allies pledged on Thursday and in recent days, including expanded airstrikes by Saudi Arabia and Canada’s expanded training mission
The stepped up contributions are mentioned in the previous post from today: US to Lead Ground Op In Syria- Turkey summons US Ambassador/Betrayal

Complicating U.S. efforts to advance peace talks in Syria (???)  and rally a broad coalition to defeat Islamic State and other extremists are the diverging priorities of some of its regional allies. Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey remain focused on toppling the Assad regime, while NATO member Turkey also has the added goal of keeping Syria’s Kurds in check. Riyadh is also determined to push back Iran’s reach into Syria.
Complicating US efforts? I don't think so. It has been and still is the US/Israel that wants the Assad government toppled. Saudi Arabia is not complicating that issue. Turkey and Iran are.
Mr. Carter didn’t comment directly on the prospect of a Saudi-led ground force, but he voiced a note of skepticism, saying the coalition was focused on developing local forces to retake territory from Islamic State.

Our strategic approach, as a coalition—the one that makes sense—is to enable capable and motivated local forces to take and hold territory out of the simple recognition that at the end of the day, territory taken from ISIL has to be occupied and governed by people form the area,  he said, referring to Islamic State by one of the acronyms used by the West.
Translation: "Our  strategic approach" is the very one I've informed my readership of all along. 
ISIS/L takes the territory belonging to existing nation states.  PKK militias "fight"  ISIS/L for  the territory (both NATO backed groups) in order  to enable these so called 'motivated local forces' to occupy and govern the annexed territory of several nations- Destroying, balkanizing, ruining Iraq, Syria, Turkey and eventually Iran in the process. In order to remake the ME and benefit Israel.

I've stated plainly, clearly and concisely this is what is going on. It was obvious. It was all done right in plain sight. This is KurdIShIS. This is that symbiosis identified here so long ago. Mr Carter  has just told you all, the same as I've told everyone here,  what is and has been going on. Perhaps my detractors can call Mr Carter nasty names and ban him from their precious sites too? 

As Thursday’s talks were getting under way, Syrians forced to flee their homes around Aleppo were running out of sanctuaries, as the fighting pressed closer to the Turkish border. Up to 60,000 Syrians have sought sanctuary along the frontier, as Turkish officials continue to stand by their decision to keep the border closed and to focus instead on establishing a new camp for displaced people on the Syrian side of the border.
It's very interesting to me when I read the sentence in read, highlighted in yellow above,  to ponder how it is  that Russia's bombing of Aleppo, along with the SAA and allies pushing up to the Turkish border, has provided Turkey with the very "safe zone" they wanted all along, but the US had prevented it's creation.  Hmmmm....... curious.  
Turkey's idea at that time was to flood Syria with refugees from Turkey- However that is unnecessary now.

Flashback: Turkey: Creating "Safe Zones", Fighting for it's Survival, Turkey's letter to UN 

Recapturing most of Aleppo province and the eastern half of Aleppo city and making advances elsewhere will make the regime and its allies the dominant force in the western half of Syria, which is home to the principal urban population centers Aleppo, Damascus, Homs and Latakia.
Thousands of fighters from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard force as well as affiliated Shiite militiamen mainly from Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon are currently leading the push in Aleppo in coordination with the Syrian regime’s forces on the ground and Russian warplanes in the sky.
Current Iran-led operations in Aleppo province commenced about six months ago and escalated at the end of September. Russia’s entry into the war on the side of the regime intensified at the start of February in tandem with the international efforts to launch peace talks in Geneva.
Since Feb. 1, those forces have captured at least a half dozen towns and villages from the opposition, encircled rebels in the eastern half of Aleppo and threaten completely to cut off the main rebel supply line from neighboring Turkey. The eastern half of Aleppo city, pummeled by years of regime barrel-bomb attacks and airstrikes, is now on the verge of completely being besieged by the Iran-led forces and cut off from the Aleppo countryside and the onward supply road to Turkey.
And the NATO global tyranny cannot have their killers cut off from their supply route via the Turkish conduit. This is not Turkey's operation. This is the US led NATO's operation. Turkey has shut down the border, coincidentally or not, at the same time as Syria is cutting of the main rebel supply route. The UN and the US are pressuring Turkey to re open that border. Get it, yet?
Elias Farhat, a retired Lebanese army general and military strategist, said that based on his conversations with those involved in the current Aleppo operation, most notably from the Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah, their goal is to capture the eastern half of Aleppo city and most of the province by June.
Aleppo city residents are also suffering from a water outage and a general shortage of fuel and electric power, Ms. Gasser’s statement added.
The US bombed those power stations some time ago- that information is here at the blog! Somewhere.... And the US did that intentionally! 
The Syrian Kurdish militia YPG seized Minnigh air base and the adjacent town in the northern outskirts of Aleppo on Thursday, according to pro-government media and opposition activists. Shortly after the popular uprising against Mr. Assad in 2011, these Kurdish forces agreed on a truce with the regime (baloney, bull biscuits and lies) and have focused their efforts on establishing a self-ruled zone in Northern Syria and are fighting Islamic State and those who oppose the Kurdish agenda.
The tale of a truce has never been confirmed by the Syrian government and Mr Assad denied the Kurds were allies- that information is also here at the blog- That claim is very beneficial to the NATO war machine--- 

The Munich Agreement is a waste of time. 

-Western diplomats confirmed that there had been no agreement by Moscow to immediately end airstrikes

- Kerry told reporters the ceasefire would not apply to extremist groups including Isis and the al-Nusra Front.
“The cessation of hostilities will commence in one week, after confirmation by the Syrian government and opposition, following appropriate consultations in Syria. During that week, the ISSG taskforce will develop modalities for the cessation of hostilities.”

The ceasefire does apply to the Kurdish PKK militias backed by NATO. They will ignore it. 
They alongside their ISIS/Nusra brethren will be resupplied by the US.


  1. Hi Pen,
    I think the main target audience for the US utterances is the jihadi loonies in Aleppo. It is all meant to assure them that "help is on its way so please don't cut and run for the Turkish border".

    Of course it is all bullshit as everything that comes out of their mouths is.

    1. hi james
      certainly the NATO war machine is trying to comfort their thugs- agree 100% with that! But can they?
      I don't know? I guess it depends on how much weapons, fighters and bombs they can drop on SAA and other allied fighters

      What I loved the most in that entire article was Carter verifying my KurdIShIS symbiosis theory

      “Our strategic approach, as a coalition—the one that makes sense—is to enable capable and motivated local forces to take and hold territory out of the simple recognition that at the end of the day, territory taken from ISIL has to be occupied and governed by people form the area,”

      The validation of what I'd proposed and been ridiculed for so long for just had me grinnin' ear to ear james. The territory should be governed as Syria had been prior to the US sending their proxy jihadis in to annex territory, in plain site

  2. Penny,

    While I believe that Nato does support a Kurdistan as a buffer/proxy against Iran and Turkey, I find that Kurdistan insurgency is simply militarily unsustainable and highly vulnerable to being cut off by Syria/Russian/Iranian/iraqi/turkish forces. The low oil prices are also lowering the viability of a Kurdish state that is truly independent from iran,turkey,iraq and syria. They may be able to hide in northern iraqi mountains like the afghans, but will still have to trade with its "enemies" to survive.

    I also believe that the kurdistan question is not the biggest issue, which is really a GLOBAL proxy war (soon to be a major conventional) between jewish bankers and the western military industrial complex and Eurasia Shanghai cooperation organization. The US, is trying to "HITLERIZE" ukraine, turkey, saudi arabia, south east asia, and europe as part of a a new operation barbarossa/vietnam war SEATO/Iran-iraq war operation against eurasia, at the cost of destroying europe and saudi arabia, turkey, syria and iraq.

    On the positive side, I don't think the bankers and nato forces are going very far. NATO forces conventional and unconventional forces are MUCH weaker relatively than in Vietnam/WW2, and western leaders are MUCH dumber than previous leaders, who were already pretty incompetent (i.e Mcnamara/Macarthur/Johnson/Kennedy/truman vs Rumsfeld/Petraeus/Bush/Hillary Clinton/Obama.

    All of this warmongering reeks of heavy desperation, including Natos buildup. A chinese general's comment about Western "erectile dysfunction" is fitting. I read alot on Economic issues and I find that world trade, especially the baltic dry index collapse, as indicative as the world economy being economically faked, and the leaders of the west as freaking about everything.

    Great blog.

    1. Avirgo:

      Kurdistan doesn't need oil to be viable, it helps,but is not necessary. Kosovo exists as a 'state' without oil revenues. Kosovo like Kurdistan can exist as simple NATO terror state or proxy for NATO-
      And the PKK has resources a plenty- The same as Kosovo (KLA) does- smuggling being just one of their lucrative commonalities

      Crime pays large when your a NATO affiliate.

      "I also believe that the kurdistan question is not the biggest issue, which is really a GLOBAL proxy war"

      Kurdistan is part of the issue of a global proxy war, so, we can't separate them from one another. Without the PKK and the creation of 'kurdistan' a big chunk of the global proxy war would be non existent

      There is a sense of desperation to the NATO moves because of the situation with Aleppo- Desperation makes for a great deal of danger

    2. Penny,

      I am comparing Kurdistan to NATO controlled Ukraine. I don't know if you read the, but Ukraine is at or near failed state status. The country has high unemployment, has a economy reportedly worse than some African states, and is at war with both a pro-russian insurgency and with also neo-nazi factions. Ukraine is currently being funded by EU aid, IMF loans, and US military assitance aid, all of which is probably promptly stolen and hidden in offshore accounts. Ukrainian women apparently become prostitutes in the EU, and there is anti-ukrainian violence in Poland.

      Ukraine, however, is not surrounded by hostile states. It only faces Belarus and Russia in the north and east respectively. Ukrainians, the children of the wealthy elite are able to leave the country and vacation in germany and italy, while children of the poor join neo-nazi battalions and fight the government or go to front to die against the pro-russians. German Intel belives Ukraine has lost approximately 50k troops compared to 5k (militia and civilians dead) for the pro-russians.

      Terrible as the situation may be for Ukraine, its position still better than Kurdistan. Kurdistan, has a smaller population, no industry, more factions who don't like each other, and is surrounded by much larger and populated states that distrust it, and which it needs to do business with. Kurdish factions are not only supported by NATO, but have had intelligence and political connections to the Turks, Iranians (Iran-Iraq War) and now, Russia, which is building a representation office in Moscow for the Kurdish “opposition.” Multiple lobbying factions weakens NATO control over the Kurds. NATO is also highly dependent on controlling Turkey's southern border to resupply the Kurds, which in the future may be more tightly controlled, while as the Turkish government, while stupid, is probably catching on to NATO betrayal (

      I don't know if this source is credible:
      But apparently, turkey has killed a bunch of us forces supporting the kurds.

      If Turkey cuts off Kurdish supply lines, then NATO will be dependent on Iraqi ports, liable to be cut off by Iranian controlled Shia militias or AIR TRANSPORT. I think NATO is preparing for a air transport route. Historically, air transport alone as resupply has been inadequate for both conventional and unconventional warfare. Examples include: Khe Sanh, Dien Bien Phu, Operation Market garden, and to a lesser extent Afghanistan. Successful insurgencies have always had a land sanctuary: Chinese communists (Southern Mongolia), Vietcong (Laos, cambodia, southern china), Taliban(Pakistan tribal regions), ISIS(Libya, North Africa, East Syria, and Western, Northern Iraq). NATO will very likely have to use iraqi syrian airspace to resupply Kurds if Turkey shuts down airspace to NATO. Syrian and Iraqi airforce will unlikely attack US resupply, but they become legally, and politically vulnerable in UN geopolitics (iraqi parliament can condemn aerial resupply to Kurds, there are reports Iraqi government has impounded weapons to the Kurds).

      Overall, I don't think a NATO controlled Kurdish state is a viable threat to the Eurasian powers (Russia, China and Iran), but think that Kurdistan is misdirection, a cover for the overthrow of the current Turkish government into a Ukrainian, Libya like state with factions like the “Grey Wolves” or “ISIS” taking over. However crazy and Islamist Edrogan is, I don't think it is enough for NATO, who wants someone like Mikheil Saakashvili (Georgia 08 war) to go to war to Iran and Russia.

      Ironically, seeing all these reports about US emphasizing Denuclearization and upholding New Start Treaty, the US hopes that the proxy war is non nuclear. LOL.

    3. Hi Avirgo:
      very familiar with saker, long before he was
      His site is in the sidebar and has been for a very long time- I have to read through your comment and think before responding, you raise some interesting things
      I thank you :)
      And will be back soon

  3. It seems that some of the takfiris have got their hands on some Grad multiple rocket launcher systems. These can fire volleys of 16 - 24 missiles over long distances. Any guesses where they came from and where the takfiris were trined in how to use them? /sarc

    The takfiris will use these against civilian targets and the historic parts of Aleppo. Russia will be blamed for it.

    1. thanks! I found an english version, but, do appreciate your help- greatly

  4. The positions of the Grads are somewhat more difficult to pinpoint as they are usually truck mounted and can reposition quickly. However, it doesn't mean they can become invisible. Their locational coordinates can and will be detected at some point. Air to ground ordinance will then begin eliminating that hardware. The area you speak of has the highest concentration of radar, air equipment and most likely on the ground assets in Syria presently. Russia's leading edge technology has NATO soiling themselves. They'll take care of the GRADS quickly.

  5. Back again!

    Found an English story for the Grads

    Bashar al-Assad's foreign enemies have sent rebels new supplies of ground-to-ground missiles to confront a Russian-backed offensive by the government near Aleppo.

    The missiles with a range of 20 km (12 miles) had been provided in "excellent quantities"

    "It is excellent additional fire power for us," said one of the commanders, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. The second rebel commander said the missiles were being used to hit army positions beyond the front line. "They give the factions longer reach," he said.

    "Assad's enemies have been supplying vetted rebel groups with weapons via a Turkey-based operations center. Some of the vetted groups have received military training overseen by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency"

    Notice the wording? "Via a Turkey based operation center". Not a Turkish operation center. Then "overseen by the US CIA" This tells us who is running the center. The CIA is running the center based in Turkey.

  6. It looks as if Ashton Carter is also shoring up IS at Raqqa

    We know from my previous post that the US has already sent special ops into north eastern syria- to support IS because Syrian Army was moving in on that area

    Carter's support:

    "We're going to try to give opportunities and power to... particularly Arabs in Syria who want to re-seize their territory back from IS, especially Raqqa,"

    Now to the SAA news about Raqqa:

    "For the first time since August of 2014, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has reentered the Al-Raqqa Governorate in northern Syria after a successful past few days of fighting against the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) along the Salamiyah-Raqqa Road that flows through much of east Hama.