Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Saving Mosul Dam from Afar? Sweden of all places?

A conference in Sweden to save a dam in Iraq? I'm having some troubles with this narrative.
Saving Mosul Dam, from afar

Bizarre signage "most dangerous dam in the World" I didn't think engineers were so dramatic

I find the article and interviews rife with contradictions
And where there are contradictions- Their are lies.
Engineers, academics and politicians ( looks more like an NGO gathering) gathered in central Stockholm Tuesday to help diffuse an ongoing crisis in northern Iraq where a crumbling hydro-dam threatens to wash way towns and thousands of people.
Built in 1986, experts say the Mosul dam could collapse at any moment. Such a disaster would be catastrophic, flooding a city of about 1 million people and much of the country downstream along the Tigris River.
Nadhir Al-Ansari is a professor of civil engineering at Luleå University of Technology in Sweden's far north. Originally from Baghdad, he's been involved with the dam since its beginning, carrying out an early report about its structural problems. He says the dam's location was flawed from the get-go.
It was built on a bed of limestone and gypsum, a soft mineral that dissolves in water. That means the ground beneath the dam and its reservoir is slowly being eaten away by the water seeping into the weak bedrock, causing the dam to settle and crack.
Repairs have been carried out for decades with crews buttressing the dam's foundation by injecting grout into the cracks and holes that develop. That upkeep, however, ground to a halt two years ago when the Islamic State (IS) took control of Iraq's largest dam.
"Everybody ran away," Al-Ansari tells Radio Sweden. "And that meant the cavities were increasing under the foundation of the dam."
Now, to make matters worse, springtime and early summer see more water flowing into the dam's reservoir, building up additional pressure on the structure.
That's why a team of researchers and engineers are meeting this week to create an action plan meant to solve the crisis. Experts from the US, Canada, Sweden and elsewhere in Europe are in the capital. The group will prepare a roadmap for the dam's future that will be handed over to the Iraqi government.
"We as academics and scientists have a responsibility to tell people what we know," fellow Luleå University professor Sven Knutsson says. "If people listen or not, that's another thing but we have to say what we know."
Recently the Iraqi government signed a deal with an Italian company to repair and upgrade the dam. But those following the situation wonder if their efforts will be enough in the short term.
Al-Ansari and Knutsson say the best bet is to finish construction on a secondary dam that sits downriver. But that project will take about 2 years to complete. In the meantime the Mosul dam could collapse. Al-Ansari tells Radio Sweden it's only a matter of time.
"Sooner or later, we can assure you that it will fail," he says.

The secondary dam would be Badoush Dam.  A topic that was covered in this post-Annexing Mosul, Destroying Iraq & Collapsing Mosul Dam (Making way for Badush): Part 2


  1. Penny, you are like a pitbull on this issue!

    The mistakes these jokers are making in reporting the Mosul Dam situation boarders on the absurd.

    Here's an examples of some low-hanging fruit...

    Wikipedia reports that the Mosul Dam has had 49,000 long tons (55,000 short tons) of grout injected into a massive grout blanket and 80m deep curtain wall during it's maintenance over the decades.

    "[14] More than 50,000 tonnes (49,000 long tons; 55,000 short tons) of material have been injected into the dam since leaks began forming shortly after the reservoir was filled in 1986"


    Then The Guardian inexplicably adds those two numbers together to arrive at 95,000 tons.

    "A total of 95,000 tonnes of grout of different types were used over the dam’s lifetime."


    Now the specific gravity of grout mixes can be found here and is found to be approximately 2g/cc) > http://www.foundocean.com/webpac_content/global/documents/more/Brochures/Short%20Brochure%20-%20Grout%20Specifications.pdf

    From that we know that 50,000 tons divided by 2g/cc yields approximately 25,000 cubic meters of grout.

    That sounds like a lot and it is.

    But the dam is 3.4 kilometers long (3,400m.) so when you divide the length by the amount of grout used you get 7.35 cubic meters of grout per linear meter of dam.

    Now perhaps to some without a calculator that still sounds like a fair bit... but that 7.35 cubic meters of grout is spread 80m. deep vertically in the curtain wall and over 10's of meters horizontally in the grout blanket directly under the dam's base and that's a lot of territory to cover.

    In addition the dam's base is around 600 meters wide from bottom of reservoir to what remains of the dam's former concrete footwall after the 'repairs'.

    So as you can now see there aren't a lot of major sinkhole cavities underneath the dam that could collapse and cause the dam to undergo a sudden catastrophic disintegration but that is precisely the turd sandwich they are trying to sell you.


    And if you really want to see just how stupid these guys are check out their 38-slide sales presentation.


    Is ANY mechanism or sequence of events for the dam's collapse explained?


    As for the ever increasing seepage check out slide number 25 to see where the water is coming out of the breciated gypsum interbeds... hint: It ain't anywhere near the dam (RSS spring)

    Right! 1.5 kilometers downstream south-east of the main dam beside the river.

    Also notice the reference to the US Army Corps of Engineers 2015 report (USACE2015) on slide 25 that they have yet to publicly disclose.

    And how do they describe a 360 liter/second leak plugged since construction?

    "Huge spring which erupted from gypsum brecia" (slide 19) and check out the largest passage found yet on slide 17... 1.3 meters in height and at 315 meters elevation which basically means high and dry for 80% of the year!

    And are there any major visible leaks yet?

    Exactly. So why is collapse imminent?

    Just askin'...

  2. Greetings Penny...

    You have mail waiting for you. Same place as it went last time :)

    1. got it out and hubby and I have calculator and paper doing math at the moment!

    2. Grrrrr....shred, shred :))

    3. ok, by our calculations, considering the massive size of the dam, plus the number of years it's been in service- I get your point that this is not much grouting. Not really.
      I'm looking at the slideshow presently

    4. don't get the point of slide 10 or 11?
      Or 12? Random crack?
      Random sinkhole? #13
      #14 Sinkhole under pavement- where? Location not mentioned.
      crack from slab slide- but no mention of size of crack- how large was the slabslide?
      there is nothing I can compare the image to for judging height, depth, etc., No perspective.

      #15 was taken in 2003- if whatever they are attempting to show there had worsened why not go and get a recent image, you know one 12 years newer!

      #18 is another 2003 image and above the image it's states continuing dissolution- well, where is the proof of that? Like something from 2015? Or how about 2016?
      Very fishing slide show, indeed

      huge outflow of 360 litres?! That's huge in a dam that size?! while excavation is occurring?

      Not grasping the areas of sedimentation slide?
      Notice that again, it's old imagery
      1986& 2011
      And wonder why there is no new imagery?

      The solution is Badush/Badoush dam
      I've talked about that here at the blog
      And have good reason to believe it has been completed

    5. "Exactly. So why is collapse imminent?"

      That's not explained at all. It's not even touched upon.

      However, looking at the image of the dam, imminent and catastrophic collapse could occur if enough explosives were placed in the clay core- with the reinforced concrete casing removed it would be possible to collapse the dam, catastrophically speaking.


      I'm just saying that's one way I see catastrophic collapse as possible. and thinking further about it.. maybe not as much explosive capability as one would think to move a mountain of that size depending on the amount of water pressure present?

      I'm just saying...

  3. There are many Kurds in Sweden

    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    2. Yah, Sweden and Norway really seem to have many influential and criminal kurds.. not quite sure why

  4. Here's a great dog and pony show by the dam's former engineers explaining why they can't stop the water from building up in the reservoir behind the DOOMED structure.

    "At the same time as the bedrock is getting weaker and more porous, the water pressure on the dam is building as spring meltwater flows into the reservoir behind it. Giant gates that would normally be used to ease the pressure by allowing water to run through are stuck."

    CRAP!!!... the giant gates are stuck!!!

    “One of them is jammed, and when one of them is closed the other one has to be closed. They must work together,” Adamo said. “Otherwise, you get asymmetric flow and that speeds up the erosion.”

    WHAT? Oh... one is jammed so they can't open the other so they are both NOT actually stuck. Perhaps they could cut open or blast the jammed gate and save everyone?

    "Nadhir al-Ansari, another Iraqi engineer from when the dam was built, also voiced concern about the rising waters in the reservoir.

    “The fact that the bottom outlets are jammed is the thing that really worries us,” said Ansari, now an engineering professor at the Luleå University of Technology in Sweden."

    WAIT!!!... so the bottom outlets are actually jammed???

    So what's THIS all about then? >>> http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/160407202242-mosul-dam-iraq-broken-gate-large-169.jpg

    Quotes found here >>> http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/02/mosul-dam-engineers-warn-it-could-fail-at-any-time-killing-1m-people

    1. one gate is open, I have something here mentioning that also

      The people running the dam had opened one of the gates to maintain a lower water level- I got the impression that was regularly done at the time of year when the water levels get high- winter melts

    2. Don't forget that those two gates are not the only way to release water from the dam Penny.

      Check out the aerial view of the dam here and notice the main spillway and emergency spillway and the layout of that particular area if you will.


      Now take a good look at the 6 flood gates that release to the main spillway. See how deep they are and the low they can release reservoir water levels to?


      You don't see that picture of Mosul dam very often do you?


    3. http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/04/us-controls-info-and-data-regarding.html

      "One of the defects the Americans base their warnings on - the sluice door in the dam that is not opening - does not worry him. It can be repaired, and for the time being the other one can be used to discharge water into the Tigris"

    4. No, you do not see that image of Mosul Dam and it's worth seeing because it does give one a much better idea of this structure

      Usually we just see a picture of the power station and small section of the dam

  5. btw: the entire premise of the conference is an exercise in public relations- that was my takeaway from the news item and listening to both audio clips- along with everything I've written here already..

    PR- something that can be used to form a narrative background down the road

    1. And that takes you back the the Nov. 2015 earthquake warning report.

      She's gonna blow!

  6. Mean Mister MustardMay 25, 2016 at 4:37 AM

    "The secondary dam would be Badoush Dam. And from previous information I've posted here that dam was completed. From a report done in 2015 linked at the bottom of a very lengthy post"

    Penny, I might have the wrong end of the stick but, I think you have made a false deduction:
    regarding the report here-
    it relates to some kind of study project (little info to go on) that started in 2008 and ended in 2010, costing $1.3m and taking 40man-months. Clearly that does not refer to building the dam itself, its just a study! If you were referring to something else I missed it and you need to be more explicit.

    The satellite maps from Google and Bing both indicate (to me, fwiw) that the dam is far from complete. Yes the images might be out of date, but I see nothing to support your argument that the dam is complete or near completion.

    1. Thanks MMM:

      Indeed, I could be wrong regarding Badoush dam being completed.

      I was unable to find very much information about this dam- I used Google to snoop but found some of the imagery blurred, so I couldn't tell if it had been completed. And that it was also outdated crossed my mind also

      Embedded the map for Badoush in the previous post.
      Can you leave me a link for a better image?
      Much appreciated:)

    2. As you say there is little info on the Badush Dam. Here are a few links-
      from EDR who were contracted for another study after the t-zero one (2014)





      From the first link you can see they were talking about a 2020 completion. It is a big project.

      The map you showed is a Google map and the Bing map is similar. I don't see any blurred areas. The dark flat areas are shown in the photos to be water. If you compare the maps and EDR photos with the 'completed sketch' by t-zero you will see that there is much to do.

      I can't prove a negative and I'm not trying to, but I don't think that this part of your thesis holds water (can you forgive that awful pun ;) ).

    3. Hey MMM:

      Badoush was always just a possibility..
      Something that couldn't be discounted given the psychos in charge
      It's always been Mosul's collapse and the why's around that claim that have been my meat and potatoes-

      Been a busy day,but I will look at all the links you've left
      And thanks again

  7. On the overriding IS strategy of control of the dams... see ISIS’s Water Wars and the Land of Two Rivers

    Interesting to note that the final post from the IS WordPress site was this: Dead and wounded fighters in the ranks of Kurdish units after a mistaken U.S. bombardment that concurred with an infiltration operation by Islamic State fighters east of the Faruq dam. Then the site was deleted by the author, according to WordPress.... A case of "loose lips sink ships"?

  8. iovae: I clicked on your first link and it made me think immediately of the push on Syria and Raqqa- where ISIS is allegedly holed up in yet another dam Tabqua-

    I had hit on the idea of this being a water war in a previous post and your first links appears to substantiate this

    Now the quoted section at the wordpress blog
    Loose lips sinks ships indeed
    How I would have loved to see that before it was gone- darn
    That said I absolutely 100 percent believe the US bombed ISIS and struck kurds- Or as I like to say KurdISHIS

    Thank your for links also :)

    1. And isn't this interesting- Absolutely contrary to everything reported about ISIS taking the dam in 2014-
      Which is part of the Mosul Dam collapse narrative
      When ISIS took the dam- the grouting stopped for the two weeks- But!

      " In the summer of 2014 Iraqi and Kurdish military forces, backed by intensive US air raids, prevented ISIS from taking the Mosul Dam on the Tigris.

      ISIS never took the dam at all? Not for any length of time

    2. http://securing-europe.wp.hum.uu.nl/final-water-wars-isis/

      And there is yet another dam discussed here:

      'the soon-to-be completed Ilısu Dam on the Tigris"
      I mentioned that one also in a previous post
      Turkey is having difficulty completing the dam because of the PKK destabilization campaign that has been launched against Turkey

    3. And water itself can be used as a weapon. In Sept. 2014, there was to be a music festival in S. Turkey, until apparently the Turkish water authority opened a dam, flooding the festival grounds -see the images in this video by 2/5BZ: GEZiLLA 10000 YEARS

      As for the Amaq Agency blog, regrettably I didn't take a look at the final post before saving the link, though typically the headline would be the bulk of the story.... we seized a tank here, killed an official there, while of course failing to mention their defeats. These were the last entries of the rss feed:

      Dead and wounded fighters in the ranks of Kurdish units after a mistaken U.S. bombardment that concurred with an infiltration operation by Islamic State fighters east of the Faruq dam.
      Breaking | Egyptian Army tank destroyed and an armored vehicle damaged after being hit by 2 explosive devices south and southwest of Sheikh Zuweid.
      Breaking | Martyrdom operation hits Iraqi forces convoy on the outskirts of the Nuwayim area, north of Hit city.
      Leader of Popular Mobilization militia in #Baghdadi, Muhaydi al-Ubaydi, killed in clashes on the outskirts of the city.
      Breaking | 2 Iraqi forces hummers and barracks burned down during an infiltration operation on the outskirts of Baghdadi city, in western Anbar.

      As to where it has relocated, the #amaq hashtag on Twitter seems to be it for the time being.

  9. Hey Penny -

    If you get blurry pics with google or bing try using Yandex. That's how you can see many places and things NATO/US would prefer to keep secret. Lots of "secret" info can be found if you use Yandex... it's where military facilities and the like show up perfectly clear even as US gets google to blur them.