Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Washingon to Make Final Offer to Moscow - Assad Transitions August 1 or else.....

Link
Frustrated by months of failure in Syria, the Obama administration is taking what might be its final offer to Moscow:  Enhanced intelligence and military cooperation against the Islamic State and other extremist groups if Syria’s Russian-backed president Bashar Assad upholds a ceasefire with U.S.-supported rebel groups and starts a political transition, the Washington Post reported Wednesday, July 13.
Does that sound like black mail to you? It sure reads that way to me! 
The US will share intelligence on it's proxy army IS and it's other proxy armies "extremist groups" if and only if Assad upholds a ceasefire and begins to exit his office
When Secretary of State John Kerry meets Russia’s top diplomat and possibly President Vladimir Putin in Moscow later this week, Syria’s civil war and Assad’s future will top the agenda. Kerry is trying to reverse a trend in which he has hailed a series of agreements with the Russians only for them to fall short, according to officials with knowledge of internal American deliberations.

The officials said Kerry is dangling in front of the Kremlin Russia’s long-sought requests for intelligence sharing and targeting assistance in return for Russia using its influence to end the fighting and start ushering Assad out of power. But Kerry will be wary about offering too much.
"Dangling" nice word choice
The talks in Moscow are scheduled fewer than three weeks before an August ultimatum for diplomatic progress.
“The target date for the transition is 1st of August,” Kerry told reporters two months ago, hoping to get Russia and Syria to halt military operations. So either something happens in these next few months or they are asking for a very different track.
Black mail and then threats! That's some kind of diplomacy!

The U.S. is now offering more robust military cooperation against IS and the Nusra Front, Syria’s al-Qaida branch, and information to help Russia target affiliated militants. Kerry won’t go as far as to suggest joint U.S.-Russian operations, according to the American officials, who weren’t authorized to speak on the matter and demanded anonymity, The Wshington Post says.
"The US is now offering more robust military cooperation against IS and the Nusra Front"???
That's an acknowledgement that the US has only been half heartedly/ hardly/ not at all/cooperating in the fight  against IS and the Nusra Front. Makes you wonder what the US has been doing? (Facetious, again)
 
“We have teed up ideas to the Russians,” State Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday, saying the Moscow discussions would be an indicator of Russia’s sincerity.
WaPo 
 "The talks in Moscow are scheduled fewer than three weeks before an August ultimatum for diplomatic progress. All signs augur poorly for a breakthrough.
Fighting is intensifying near Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. Assad has reasserted control over more areas of the country he had once lost"
 “The target date for the transition is 1st of August, Kerry told reporters two months ago, hoping to get Russia and Syria to halt military operations. “So either something happens in these next few months or they are asking for a very different track.”
  But as added carrots, ( dangling carrots- very derogatory wording) the U.S. is now offering more robust military cooperation against IS and the Nusra Front, Syria’s al-Qaida branch, and information to help Russia target affiliated militants. Kerry won’t go as far as to suggest joint U.S.-Russian operations, according to the American officials, who weren’t authorized to speak on the matter and demanded anonymity.

WaPo continues
"Russia’s bombers also have attacked anti-Assad rebel groups that have received weapons, training and other forms of support from the U.S. and allies such as Saudi Arabia" (No mention of Turkey supporting the rebel groups only Saudi Arabia- curious)
 And, as a dissent cable signed by 51 State Department officials illustrated last month, a sizeable part of America’s diplomatic establishment believe a U.S. military response is necessary to resolve the Syrian conflict, given Moscow’s increased leverage through its presence on the ground.
 Ah, yes the State Department memo ... Let's rehash that together shall we?
First:
 The U.S. Air Force is ready to create a no-fly zone in Syria, as stated by General David Goldfein, Rosbalt reported.
 According to him, there are three conditions necessary to introduce a no-fly zone. First, is the permission to shoot down all planes that enter the no-fly zone, including Russian ones.
You can, of course, read the other conditions at the link above
Second: 
Third & final point: 

hattip anonymous linkie person! (links are so handy)
“We will provide AWACS support and the plan is to have them to flying over international airspace and Turkey and that will allow us to look into airspace in Iraq and Syria,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference July 9. “This is a clear signal of our resolve to help tackle terrorism.”
   
The planes are one of the few concrete assets that NATO has, with most of its military hardware belonging to individual member states.
 AWACS are aircraft with powerful radars that allow them to monitor airspace for hun-dreds of kilometers around. They can also be converted into command posts to coordinate bombing raids and other air operations.

Could the no fly zone be the 'or else' to Russia?

From the past 24 hours: 

16 comments:

  1. "The U.S. is now offering more robust military cooperation against IS and the Nusra Front"

    The problem is that the US has zero credibility when it comes to following through on agreements. ZERO.

    The Russians are (again) beating the pants off the "rebels/terrorists" in Syria and have cut off the final supply line. I don't think they're going to fall for the "we're ready to REALLY help you this time...if you give up the shop."

    gc

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    1. hey gc; I don't actually believe the US has any intention of offering anything to Russia- this is ruse

      I like that they admitted they've been less then robust in their war on terror- though it was obvious anyway

      However... it does seem to be an ultimatum of sorts and that's what is worrisome
      Olympics begin in August

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    2. You gotta know the US has plans to disrupt the Olympics!

      Here is a link to an update of what is going on in Syria...the Russians and Syrian Army are routing the rebel/terrorists.

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    3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwB7IvwsNrg

      Sorry, forgot the link!

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  2. The rebel base in al-Tanf was hit twice last month by Russian air strikes, even after the US military used emergency channels to ask Moscow to stop after the first strike, US officials said.
    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/07/13/Russian-jets-strike-Syrian-refugee-no-man-s-land.html

    Emergency channel?

    Link from other post:
    http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2016/07/irans-kurds-now-growing-restless.html?showComment=1468419794065#c1595200862044261216

    http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2016/07/irans-kurds-now-growing-restless.html?showComment=1468419372422#c549194455485077158

    Keep in mind it was allegedly a TOW that shot that helicopter down. And remember the 100 or so that showed up on the northern border? 27Jun16
    http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160627/1042039582/syria-nusra-missile.html

    While Turkey is normalizing relations with Assad (like Germany BND did last year)

    As Iraqi troops moving on Mosul
    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/07/13/Iraqi-forces-tighten-noose-around-ISIS-.html

    BND/Germany pushing its own agenda in Europe and MENA not flying its AWACs deployed last year?
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj604GY1PDNAhXHoD4KHT3FBs0QqQIIHzAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fsputniknews.com%2Fworld%2F20160712%2F1042855709%2Fgermany-turkey-awacs.html&usg=AFQjCNHlTVWpxoAyhimZqfF-QNsFUPy_Gg&sig2=x7tpJ1myAydlGhA0ImjQlw

    BND and Assad 18Dec15
    http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151218/1031955727/germany-assad-cooperation-bnd-intel-branch-damascus.html


    And this coming Russian Sarmat test
    http:/sputniknews.com/military/20160702/1042345055/russia-text-missile-sarmat.html



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    1. Sounds a lot like the buffer zone rebels as the Rojava federalization - but not declaration - is talked up.

      http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Rebels-seize-villages-in-Israel-Syria-buffer-zone


      We believe that a federal system is ideal form of governance for Syria," the official said. "We see that in many parts of the world, a federal framework enables people to live peacefully and freely within [inter]territorial borders in the country. The people of Syria can also live freely in Syria. We will not allow for Syria to be divided; all we want is the democratization of Syria; its citizens must live in peace, and enjoy and cherish the ethnic diversity of the national groups inhabiting the country." - Hediye Yusuf, the co-chair of the Constituent Assembly of the Rojava Democratic Federal System???

      http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160712/1042855292/syrian-kurds-do-not-want-fragmentation.html

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    2. that's exactly what I'm contending- a buffer/no fly zone- as discussed here previously :)

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    3. and anonymous: I got to get to Mosul--- I just have to asap- so much darn crap going on..
      got a post in the draft, but, not done yet

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    4. Sadr calling a rally dayus after the drop in?
      https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/07/13/Iraq-calls-for-demonstrations-reprieve-over-security-concerns.html

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    5. Lebanon pushing the energy auctions which has been a leading indicator of volatility. Lots of weapons being dumped in plus refugee strains. Israel hedging its Russia position with gas deals / joint exercises but does it leave enough maneuverability in the Lebanon/Golan theater? The long range strikes and the latest airstrikes are a very clear message as is the Jordan border attack and the Nusra threats into elections. IS the Jordanian King going wobbly?

      http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20160704/1042401714/jordan-daesh-united-states.html

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    6. France on Wednesday said it had closed its embassy in the Turkish capital Ankara and its consulate in Istanbul until further notice for security reasons, after cancelling events to mark the July 14 Bastille Day holiday.

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    7. airbase
      http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-07-11/us-says-liberating-qayarah-part-of-secret-anti-isis-plan

      IS turkey about to get hit with a new level of attack?

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    8. Latest talk of a humanitarian disaster in the rebel held areas of aleppo. 2013 all over again. Idf general said months ago isis defeat in Syria not if but when.

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  3. First and foremost the Russians additional targeting info from the US/NATO gangsters. The Russians possess more than sufficient Satellite imagery and better electronic means for data collection concerning takfiri group movements in Syria. Also, it would be wise to accept if the Russians state publicly certain systems are in the testing phase they assuredly already have done so. The systems most likely are already fully operational. Sort of like if they mention it they have it. I cannot see Russia falling for or accepting empire's blackmail. As Anonymous so adroitly pointed out, the copterr was shot down with a US supplied TOW system. The Russians are not forgetting that. Also, idle threats are not made or accepted by Moscow. However, Russians will react to those. A no-fly zone established by the criminal gang will not be honored or accepted by the Russians. If done I fear an escalation will result. Shiek Hussein may turn out to be correct in his prediction of a nuclear exchange before the US presidential election circus.
    A very bad moon is rising.


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  4. The US is very generous with its AWACS systems. Two AWACS, one over the east Med and the other over east Turkey, were monitoring the flight of the Russian SU-24 that was shot down by the Turkish F-16. The east Med AWACS probably provided final targetting info to the F-16.

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    1. It is interesting to consider that when the first Russian plane ventured into Turkish airspace the pilot explicitly said he did so in an avoidance maneuver as a anti air system locked on. Add this to the confusion in Turkey over who exactly shot the plane down, the last and final being an air force general, and it does make one wonder if indeed it was an a2a attack or something else.

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