Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Arevordi HRR Excerpt: Turkey/Russia/US: Coups and Conflicting Interests

Arevordi from Heralding the Rise of Russia wrote a brilliant post regarding Armenia and the broader geopolitics of the area, titled:  The problem with Armenia is not its government, it's the people - Autumn, 2016

His post covers much ground and is worth reading entirely, however, I'm only going to post one section of it here. Why? Because the excerpt below relates to the destabilization and remake of the middle east and asia which is a core topic here!  It addresses, in a very rational and level headed fashion, the relations between Turkey/ Russia/US. Also addressing Armenia/Azerbaijan&  Nagorno Karabakh:  Nagorno Karabakh or Why I'm ignoring the Panama Papers.

I'll have some commentary of my own, of course.
Arevordi:
"Turkey coup may foster better Russo-Turkish relations

Merely two days before the assault on the Armenian police compound in Yerevan, Turkey was itself embroiled in what also seemed to be a Western sponsored armed rebellion. Thousands of soldiers led by rebellious military officers attempted to overthrow their country's strongman. The coup attempt ultimately proved a failure and Recep Erdoğan has been using it as an excuse to further clamp down on his opposition and further extend his power throughout the country"
To my understanding many changes have not yet come to fruition, however some have.
"Under Erdoğan's long rule Turkey had grown more wealthy, more powerful, more independent and more Islamic. Turkey's rise as an independent power in particular was a source of concern for Western powers. From a Western perspective, Turkey had all of a sudden become unpredictable and belligerent. The world saw the first indication of Ankara's independence and belligerence back in 2003 when Turkey, an influential NATO member, refused to allow US forces to use Turkish territory to invade Iraq. Problems also inevitably began rising between Ankara and Tel Aviv as Erdoğan's increasingly Islamic oriented government began getting more involved in Palestine's liberation struggle. Turkey's makeover under Erdoğan was obviously an alarming development for Western powers who had since the Second World War established very close ties with the country's military, political and economic elite. This concern may have been one of the reasons why Western and Israeli intelligence agencies began backing Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq against Ankara's expressed wishes. As such, relations between Western powers and Turkey gradually grew frigid in recent years. Interestingly, as Ankara grew colder towards the West, its relations with Russia grew increasingly warm. Although Moscow and Ankara had strong disagreements over Syria and Nagorno Karabakh, Russian-Turkish relations were continuing to register unprecedented advances. Then, quite unexpectedly, Turkish forces ambushed and shot-down a Russian warplane over Syria last NovemberTurkey and Russia all of a sudden found themselves on the edge of war"

Turkey's growing wealth and prosperity has been discussed here previously- enviable gdp- hence the financial warfare being waged against it- Waging Financial Warfare Against Turkey- Downgraded to Junk Status The refusal to allow US forces to station on Turkish territory in 03 has also been broached here, the Turkish state leadership saw the future and it was not rosy.
"This concern may have been one of the reasons why Western and Israeli intelligence agencies began backing Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq against Ankara's expressed wishes"  As I've stated repeatedly here- the Kurds are a proxy force of NATO/US/Israel- They have functioned as a "stay behind army" for all intents and purposes for decades, keeping Turkey off balance. Backing kurdish autonomy, going so far as creating greater Kurdistan is an intentional attempt to finally, completely weaken Turkey.
The shootdown of the Russian fighter jet, was neither in Turkish nor Russian interests, which is why I contended from the outset the shootdown was undertaken by NATO occupied Turkish forces and curiously Prime Minister Davotoglu-  amazingly, took immediate responsibility to solidify the 'blame Turkey' narrative.

"It is now becoming increasingly apparent that the downing of the Russian warplane by Turkish warplanes was planned by forces within Turkey that were opposed to Erdoğan's government. The working theory is that there were interests inside Turkey that wanted Erdoğan and Putin to go to war against each other. As we saw, Putin did taken the bait. Moscow took the heavy hit but it did not reply in kind. Instead, Moscow began implementing a series of punitive measures. Damaging sanctions against Turkey were introduced and Kurdish separatists inside Turkey were given more advanced arms and seemed to have been encouraged to intensify their military operations on Turkish territory. By early 2016, Turkey was hurting badly as south-eastern parts of the country had essentially become a war zone and several of its cities began getting hit by terror bombings. By the spring of 2016, Ankara was suffering serious military losses against Kurdish separatists inside Turkey and its political agenda inside Syria had been thoroughly defeated. Compounding these already very serious problems was the drastic drop in tourism in Turkey and billions of dollars in revenue losses. Ankara was growing increasingly desperate.
 Flashback March 27/2016: Russia Signals Interest in Warming Ties With Turkey- Russians & the Turkish Riviera

This was about the time when Ankara secretly began reaching out to Moscow. According to reports that have been put out recently, the rapprochement was started last May when Turkish officials used business channels to contact their Russian counterparts and Turkish law enforcement bodies arrested the militant who had murdered the Russian pilot. Then on June, Erdoğan sent a letter to his Russian counterpart in which he more-or-less apologized for the downing of the Russian warplane and asked to resume bilateral relations. In an interesting twist, the downing of the Russian warplanes last November began being blamed on forces opposed to Erdoğan's government. In an astounding revelation, it was also reported that Davotoglu's resignation may have also been connected to the incident. Some of us had speculated previously that the incident last November may have been orchestrated by forces interested in undermining Russian-Turkish relations. It now appears that this may have indeed been the case"
The militant that shot down the plane was alleged to have been a 'grey wolf' : NATO Stay Behind Armies: Gladio and Grey Wolves. Updated .Davotoglu suddenly resigned.
Undermining Russian/Turkish relations? Who would benefit from that?


"Sensing a historic chance to drive a wedge between Ankara and the West Russians wasted absolutely no time in jumping at the presented opportunity. Needless to say, Western powers will in-turn be pulling Turkey from the opposite direction. I wrote the following comment some time ago -
"The closer Turkey moves towards Russia, the harder will Anglo-American-Jewish interests pull Turkey from the opposite direction. Turkey will be torn apart in the process. But I have little hope that such a thing will happen. Erdoğan's government will not last forever and whoever comes after it will mostly likely go back to kissing Western asses."
This pulling in two powerful directions contributes to the why of Turkey's split personality- It should be understood that Turkey is walking the razor's edge. That is how I see it. 
It should not have surprised us that Turkey experienced a coup d'état on July 15. In the opinion of many, the attempted coup by military units in the Turkish armed forces was a desperate attempt at stopping Erdoğan's rapprochement with Russia. In the days leading to the military coup, we were seeing the following kinds of articles. Pay particular attention to the pre-coup July 15 article about Alexander Dugin's trip to Turkey -
Syrian rebels stunned as Turkey signals normalisation of Damascus relations: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/13/turkey-pm-greatest-goal-is-to-improve-relations-with-syria-and-iraq
NATO Gets Ill at Ease as Revival of Turkish Stream Looms on the Horizon: http://sputniknews.com/world/20160712/1042808696/nato-russia-turkey-energy.html
Ankara eyes Azerbaijan-Turkey-Russia cooperation format - foreign minister: http://tass.ru/en/world/888418
Ankara was clearly signalling a new political direction in the weeks leading up to the coup. The direction in question was unmistakably oriented towards Russia. Ankara was even signaling its willingness to negotiate with Bashar Assad, angering Turkish-backed rebel groups in Syria. This must have greatly agitated Uncle Sam, as well as Jews. Therefore, more pressure was to be put on Ankara. This may have been the reason behind series of ISIS attacks against civilian and military targets inside Turkey. This may have also been the reason behind the Bundestag's recognition of the Armenian Genocide and Davutoglu's sudden departure. Through it all, a chorus of complaints about Erdoğan's "dictatorial" government could be heard throughout the Western press. But Erdoğan remained unfazed and stubbornly pressed ahead with his plans. Which in my opinion made a Western-backed military coup inevitable. From the West's perspective: If the coup succeeded and Erdoğan was toppled, it would be wonderful. If the coup did not succeed, it would at least send Erdoğan a stark warning. Time will tell what lasting impact, if any, the failed coup will have on Erdoğan's government.

What we saw in Turkey recently was nevertheless an effort to stop Erdoğan's government from drifting the country too far away from Western interests. Predictably, Turkey is being torn apart to some degree in the process, and it can get even worst. Erdoğan was crazy enough to think that Turkey, being in the Western orbit, could operate independently and assertively; Erdoğan  was crazy enough to think he could antagonize Anglo-American-Jews and still try to fix relations with Russia. Serious cracks are now appearing between Ankara and Western powers. Naturally, Russia wants to fill the void. Moscow will try but it will not ultimately succeed in pulling Turkey out of the Western orbit, at least not in one piece. I say this because Turkey is too deeply involved with the Anglo-American-Jewish world to survive a total divorce. Therefore, if Erdoğan does not give into Western demands, he will risk having his country torn apart. Which is why I want to see Erdoğan continue his agenda. which is why I want to see Moscow continue trying to pull Ankara out of the Western orbit.

Nevertheless a reminder for Armenians who get hopeful about Western powers abandoning Turkey: The nation of Turkey continues to be very valuable for Anglo-American-Jews because Turkey is a strategic buffer against Russians, Iranians and Arabs. The Western world's problem is not with Turkey but with Erdoğan's government. The Anglo-American-Jewish alliance simply does not like Erdoğan's increasingly independent and belligerent attitude. Western powers will do what they can to oust Erdoğan but they will NEVER abandon Turkey.
In a sense, military coup was a Western effort to maintain some degree of control over the country or at the very least weaken Erdoğan's government. It was essentially a show-of-force by the CIA. By having thousands of soldiers inside Turkey take up arms against their leader Uncle Sam sent a message to Erdoğan. The recent rash of terror bombings in Turkey had sent a similar message but that apparently was not enough to scare Erdoğan. Nevertheless, Armenians better not get too excited or too optimistic. Western powers will never abandon Turkey. Besides, the Western-backed military and business elite in Turkey is not a lesser enemy to Armenia.
That said, Turkey can indeed suffer a lot of damage in the current geopolitical climate. The on-going tug-of-war over Turkey between Western powers and Russia has the potential of tearing the country apart. Facing terror bombings and now a bloody military insurrection, Erdoğan now has a choice to make: He can either continue trying to take Turkey further away from Western influence and risk having Turkey be pulled apart in the process or he can swallow his Anatolian pride and be pragmatic and accept his subservience to the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance. The next few months will reveal his choice. How he reacts to recent developments in Turkey will reveal what direction he wants Turkey to go. However, regardless of what Erdoğan does going forward, Turkey is now a broken nation. Serious fissures are appearing throughout Turkish society. There are now serious problems between the country's Kurds, secular/western leaning Turks, conservative/nationalistic Turks and Islamist Turks. The nation of Turkey is gravely ill and the rift between Erdoğan's government and the West is now very deep.

That said, Turkey has become an independent player in the region, a wildcard, especially now that Erdoğan's government has defeated the coup. Unlike Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's game nearly one hundred years ago, when he fooled the Bolsheviks into thinking he was contemplating an alliance with them, Ankara's current desire to break out of the Western orbit and enter into a closer friendship with Russia is very genuine. Those who planned the ambush of the Russian warplane last November wanted to embroil Erdoğan and Putin into a shooting war thereby derailing Russia's war effort in Syria and ruining Ankara's prospect of fostering better relations with Moscow. Putin did not take the bait. For his part, Erdoğan began efforts to fix the problem by reaching out to Russia using back channels. Disagreements between Moscow and Ankara over Syria's faith also seem to have been resolved. Turkey will therefore play a lesser political role in the conflict. All in all, Turkey may have finally begun its journey away from Western powers. We can all be rest assured that it will be a perilous journey. As I said, the country runs the risk of begin torn apart because Western powers still control a lot of assets inside the country and also because the West will react by giving Kurds more power. Turkey therefore runs the risk of begin torn apart if it indeed breaks its ties with Western powers. It's beginning to seem like Erdoğan's government is willing to take that chance.

In the big picture, this all is a good development for Armenia because Turkey's problems with Western powers can have one of two outcomes. 1) Turkey may become a weaker nation with serious internal and external problems. 2) Turkey and Russia will enter into a close alliance. Needless to say, a weaker Turkey is fully in Armenia's interests but such a situation runs the risk of creating major volatility on Armenia's western border. Good Russian-Turkish relations can also be in Armenia's interests, as it will pacify the situation in the south Caucasus, which will in turn boost the region's economy. Good relations between Moscow and Ankara should therefore not scare Armenians. Russia may lose Armenia in a major battle but it will never willingly give up or "sell" Armenia to Turks or anyone else for that matter. Regardless of its agenda vis–à–vis Turkey, Russia will always see Armenia as its single greatest ally in the south Caucasus. Moreover, regardless of its relations with Turkey, Moscow will continue basing troops on Armenia's borders with Turkey and it will continue recognizing the Armenian Genocide. Good Russian-Turkish relations simply means good regional economic cooperation and less military tension, both of which are fully in Armenia's long-term interests. More importantly, good Russian-Turkish relations means the expulsion of Western troublemakers from the region, which is in the benefit of all regional peoples.
Presentation of the Turkish situation as simplistic rather then multi faceted does a great disservice to the reality of the situation. I see too many alt media types engaging in this. It's deceptive.

Anonymous commenter mentions the Turkish/Iranian oil for Gold transactions- Covered briefly in this post: December 23/2013 Turkey: Halkbank - Role in Iran Gold Transactions Legal
Notice the multiple mentions in that post of Fethullah Gulen?
Bloomberg article link left by same commenter: Gold Trader at Heart of Turkey Graft Scandal Charged in U.S.


In my opinion the trade between Iran and Turkey was their business, to conduct, and no business of the global tyrant USA.

15 comments:

  1. The financial war on Turkey is why Erdogan was inquiring about the arrest of the 33 yr old gold trader in another of the perilous graft scandals plaguing Germany, Brazil, South Korea, South Africa (Stan Chart this AM launched by the US), Italy. Ratings agencies are a sideshow at this point. Now it is about market "capping"
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-22/gold-trader-charged-in-u-s-with-violating-iran-sanctions
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-22/gold-trader-charged-in-u-s-with-violating-iran-sanctions


    IMF 2013 warning on Turkish Monetary policy
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-imf-idUKBRE9BJ1DS20131220
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-turkey-idUSBRE9910GN20131002


    Armenia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Gyumri_massacre
    http://www.rferl.org/a/russia-soldier-jailed-killing-tajik-woman-sherbakov-jabborova/27886430.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kandahar_massacre

    Now Saakashvili says he is going to return home from Odessa for the elections....Tipping points: Georgia or Macedonia/Bosnia?




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    1. pretty sure I have something here on the blog about the gold for oil with Iran- because Turkey didn't abide by the Iranian sanctions- imposed by the US- I know that's been mentioned here

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    2. anonymous: I've updated the post with my old article on the gold/halkbank issue and included the bloomberg article link you have left
      thanks a whole lot!

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  2. UK-EM-Indonesia not SA

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  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9311_Toyota_vehicle_recalls

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  4. Ironically Turkey today hit out at Armenia over their ageing nuke plant at IAEA meeting.

    My favorite Iranian isn't going to attemp to run for president in Iran.
    Ahmadinejad Gives Up Plan to Nominate for Next Year Presidential Election
    http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950706000908

    I read part of his fall write up, but it was when my mind was in relax mode and things wouldn't gel. This reminds me I need to get back over and read that !

    Now, what brought me over..
    Look who ISIL appointed as their new military head !
    (you will appreciate this Penny )

    ISIL Appoints Saddam's Army General as 'New War http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950706001291Minister'

    that will give the pundits reams of paper for the next project, which is Mosul I assume.
    I can just see it... back to fight America again blah blah blah

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    1. "ISIL leaders in a meeting held in the vicinity of Iraq's Anbar province selected former senior Iraq Army officer Yaseen al-Muadhidi, nom de guerre Abu Taha, as the terror group's new war minister," Senior commander in Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces, locally known as Hashd al-Sha'abi, Colonel Nazem al-Chuqaifi said on Tuesday.

      Abu Taha is among the most senior commanders and Emirs within the hierarchy of the ISIL terrorist group, and has fought with the group, after pledging allegiance to the group some five years ago.

      Intelligence data about the new ISIL minister suggests that he was among the most prominent officers in the now-disbanded Iraqi army under Saddam Hussein and ranked as lieutenant general in 2003. The former Iraqi army was disbanded after the fall of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein"

      Interesting?

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    2. Considering Al Douri said that an alliance between Saddam baathists and the DAESH was impossible because the Baathist were infidels, notable. Converted at the river Jordan?

      o%09http:/dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Apr-11/346672-ex-saddam-aide-seeks-to-reshape-insurgency.ashx

      Still no word on the Shiite militias role in Mosul if any (US leaning hard on Abadi) but if that report of the IRG kills by Kurd militias is true following the US training of PAK (to be differentiated from PUK?) - and considering it was the Barzani Peshmerga apparently that welcomed the IRG first into Iraq upon the DAESH - ominous development as the former Mossad director warns of civil war and the forces aligned against Iran regionally and beyond have galvanized(US navy incidents and Iran protest days ago on US sanctions foot dragging namely banks).


      "Iraq says presence of Turkish troops hampers Mosul liberation. "If Turkey is serious in fighting Daesh, then they have to withdraw its forces from Iraq," Abadi said, adding "but Turkey is not willing to end its military presence, and is ignoring the principle of violating the sovereignty of Iraq as an independent country." Turkish government said that withdrawing Turkish troops from Iraq is out of the question and the Turkish soldiers are in Iraq as part of a training mission. Abadi did not say whether the predominantly Shiite paramilitary Hashd Shaabi units would participate in the battle of the Sunni city of Mosul."

      http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-09/19/c_135695473.htm

      But it is the Turkish troops that are training the Sunni militias. Crown Prince Nayef is in Turkey meeting with officials on regional issues - to be distinguished from the deputy crown prince and his now solo war in Yemen (US advisors recently pulled out of Saudi as the UK just rejected a UN inquiry into war crimes by the Saudi alliance amidst reports of White Sulfur use in iraq by coalition?). In wake of the Saudi 9-11 legislation and the allegations of Nayef being close to death, he is now in Turkey as the Deputy pushes his Aramco privatization. Sign of the times?

      https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/09/26/Saudi-Crown-Prince-to-visit-Turkey-on-Thursday.html

      US intelligence sources quoted in that NAyef is close to death rumor weeks ago 22Jun16
      http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-crown-prince-fine-despite-us-reports-being-near-death-656966416

      US cant have Turkey troops backing Barzani. Given the pallets of dollars floating around MENA and the Saudi hints at dumping US bonds (having just notched up austerity with Citi tasked for a massive bond deal) Is another Kirkuk buyout offer on the table?
      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-26/jpmorgan-citi-hsbc-said-to-be-hired-on-first-saudi-dollar-bond
      http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/business/international/saudi-threat-to-sell-us-assetscould-hurt-but-mostly-the-saudis.html

      Saudi aid to Barzani and UAE exile following the Saddam theme

      http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/news/246989
      http://www.uaeinteract.com/docs/UAE_proposes_Saddam_exile_to_avert_war/7031.htm

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  5. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-warplanes-hit-pkk-targets-in-northern-iraq.aspx?pageID=238&nID=104302&NewsCatID=341

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-treats-60-peshmerga-forces-.aspx?pageID=517&nID=104223&NewsCatID=352


    What to make of Turkey bombing the PKK in Iraq but treating Peshmerga from Iraq. Shadow of the Gorran and Barzani rattle?


    ":Sources said there were two different peshmerga groups in the region: one branch of the peshmerga are loyal to Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Masoud Barzani, while the other is led by former Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.These two fractions of peshmerga stand apart in Bashiqa due to the ongoing political crisis in the KRG. The leadership of the peshmerga in the region was given to Barzani’s peshmerga, but some positions have been left to Talabani’s peshmerga, and the two try not to interfere with each other. "

    Gorran and the opposition have formed up.

    Peshmerga needs to be Disambiguated ahead of Mosul - like the newly factioned taliban


    Is that the same general who offered the Shiite militias a 'deal' on DAESH to stay out of the mosul fight?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-douri-idUSKCN0X70L6
    http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/05/izzat-ibrahim-al-douri-refutes-reports-of-his-death.php

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    1. "What to make of Turkey bombing the PKK in Iraq but treating Peshmerga from Iraq. Shadow of the Gorran and Barzani rattle?"

      Yes

      Mosul looks to be impending

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    2. I should get to work on Mosul tomorrow- because it looks to be an any day kind of thing..

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  6. They've (the collective they) has made several statements that Oct is when their op is to be in Mosul.
    NATO sending AWAQS ( evidently more than one?)
    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/nato-plans-to-deploy-awacs-in-october.aspx?pageID=238&nID=104272&NewsCatID=359

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    1. 16 allegedly. possibly based out of Turkey but to use international airspace not Syria and or Iraq. Oct 19? hmmm about the same time the Russian carrier steams in.


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    2. The analysis is deeply flawed.
      Firstly, AKP was founded by Gülen & the CIA who wanted to halt the influece of natioalists in society & the army. Erdogan was a puppet from the start, along with die hard Gülenist, Abdullah Gül, the US wasn't worried about him.
      The rapprochement between Russia & Turkey has been overstated, it's clear Erdogan has chosen subservience to the west. Turkey continues to send in jihadists and weapons to the rebels, which has to do with Erdogans MB ideology, where the nation state is subservient to the Ummah. Also, Turkey continues with their warm relationship with Saudi & Qatar, as we can see in Syria.
      Clearly, Erdogan does not stand against the Kurdish project, Turkey was & is not against the KRG. In fact they are the greatet friend of the Barzani kleptocracy, & now even support him with troops, & will most likely support the KRG in annexing Mosul & Kirkuk from the central goverment. It is in effect Turkey minor, & no Turkish nationalist would ever have done what he is doing with Barzani.

      If Erdogan put the interests of Turkey first he would ally with Syria, Iran & Iraq, but he doesn't, because of his islamist ideology.

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