Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Mosul- Difficult Fight? Already Ahead of Schedule?

There is much spin today about the fight for Mosul being long and difficult.  Dramatic media presentation? Sure. Realistic? Not so much. Narrative prep to make the 'win' seem that much more substantive.

I disagree completely with the presentation!

*Since Mosul's been being softened for months and months now- Not to 'fight' but to displace.

From Yesterday:   The Battle for Mosul Has Begun?
So an "official announcement" marks the beginning of the Mosul onslaught?

As readers here know, Mosul, has been being bombed for months now.. 
As Kurds continue to make clear territory they take, is theirs. 
And the Kurds have NATO on their side

As I'd mentioned last week it was reported that around 1,000 fighters remained in Mosul-

* Russia and Turkey Plot The Endgame in Aleppo
 "Not much resistance is expected from the Islamic State fighters numbering around 1000 in Mosul,........"
 Some media outlets are suggesting it's higher. It's doubtful there are even 1,000 fighters there as of today in Mosul!

ISIS will 'lay down' just like it always does.
" ISIS has largely vacated Mosul... as they do everywhere else when 'the big battle' is on
  As has been reported.  Every time. Jarablus. Dabiq. Kobane. Etc.,  Don't believe me? I'll let the Soufan Group tell you about it!
On October 16, Iraq announced that the battle for Mosul had begun; on the same day, U.S. and Turkish-backed rebel forces retook the Syrian town of Dabiq from the Islamic State.
 As it has done elsewhere in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State chose not to fight to the end in Dabiq.
• Despite its apocalyptic rhetoric, the Islamic State’s military strategy in the face of mounting territorial losses has been decidedly non-apocalyptic, particularly since its most decisive defeat in Kobani in early 2015.
 Regarding Mosul: 
 When faced with the prospect of overwhelming force in other strategic cities, the Islamic State has often preempted a strategic defeat with a tactical retreat, thus preserving the majority of its fighting force."
You can read the rest about the fierce ISIS laying down in yesterday's post relinked above!

Edited to add: My version of laying down has most of them switching teams- Think of Mosul when it was first taken. Think of Kobani- where ISIS changed clothes and blended in with the  PKK Kurds- which would be so very easy to do

It's already being reported the fight is ahead of schedule. Seriously.

President Barack Obama warned on Tuesday of a tough battle ahead as Iraqi forces backed by a US-led coalition advanced on Mosul to wrest the city from the Islamic State group.
Obama said the push to liberate the northern city, the jihadists’ last stronghold in Iraq, now in its second day, was a “major step forward.
Iraqi forces were making gains as tens of thousands of fighters advanced on Mosul in an unprecedented offensive to retake the city from the Islamic State group.
With the crucial battle in its second day, Iraqi commanders said progress was being made as fighters pushed on two main fronts against the jihadists’ last stronghold in Iraq.
The US military, which is leading a coalition providing air and ground support, said Iraqi forces even looked “ahead of schedule” but senior Western officials warned the battle would be long and difficult.
Advancing in armoured convoys across the dusty plains surrounding Mosul, forces moved into villages defended by pockets of IS fighters after intensive aerial bombardment.
After just two days the campaign is ahead of schedule- Wow!

Media drama aside-

Mosul will be taken in short order- The fallout from the taking of Mosul will drag on for years and years-  
Not sure how the 'taking' of Mosul will be defined? But it will be hyped as a success!
You can count on it!


  1. “Meetings between FETÖ and the PKK are taking place in northern Iraq, trying to drag Turkey into chaos through the PKK,”

    Erdogan and Putin had a phone call

    Russian General Staff: Mosul operation has not started essentially

    1. good morning karin
      no heart attack this morning I hope ;)

      I saw the news about Putin and Erdogan's phone call yesterday-


      "Russian and Turkish Presidents, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, exchanged views on the Syrian settlement and discussed the operation to liberate Iraq’s Mosul, the Kremlin press service said on Tuesday after a telephone conversation between the two leaders initiated by the Turkish side.

      "The Russian side stressed the importance of efficient separation of ‘moderate’ opposition groups from militants of Jabhat al-Nusra and other terrorist groups affiliated with it," the Kremlin said.

      Following the top-level Russian-Turkish talks in Istanbul on October 10, the two presidents discussed further development of bilateral cooperation in the political, trade-and-economic and other areas. "It was agreed to continue contacts on bilateral and regional problems at various levels," the press service said"

    2. I see the General is differentiating between 'liberation' and a continuation of the bombing

      "Regardless of all this sensation on the Western screens, it is necessary to understand that the operation itself has not yet started in essence. We observe only the concentration of grouping on the ground and shelling of the city facilities carried out from rocket artillery and aviation," Gerasimov said.

      I agree with him completely on the sensationalistic aspect of the reporting and mentioned it in the post- It's over the top really

      So no liberation, just bombing
      Well it is freedom by obliteration for NATO always-