Saturday, October 1, 2016

October in Turkey. Putin's visit/Coup 2- New Relations- Gazprom Deal

October is showing plenty of potentialities for chaos. Possibly worse then September, if one can believe that possible! It's interesting to notice that October tells us it's the 'eighth' month. But we recognize it as the tenth month. Perhaps the contradictory nature of this month comes from it's dual identity?

Just thinking out loud

We've talked here about: Putin to Visit Turkey October 11/16U.S. tells Turkey It Will Respond Soon to Demand's For Gulen's Arrest-  Expected answer, this month, the month of October

 Two potential October Surprise scenarios: Turkey Coup, Part Two? That's One October Surprise Option!  & 2nd October Surprise Possibility - Taking Mosul. Dam of Mass Destruction.

Greencrow believes Putin's October visit is timed to impede the coup in some way- You can read her  very interesting post here:  In Harm's Way: Why is Putin going to Turkey on October 11, 2016?

 Turkey's Parliament Opened Today. October 1st. Here is what President Erdogan was quoted saying:

 Turkey intends to restore relations with Russia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan said.
He made the remarks at the opening session of the Turkish Parliament after the summer holidays, TASS news agency reported Oct. 1.
“We plan to bring our relations with Russia to a former and an even higher level,” he said.

More on improving relations

Some interesting statements were made
Touching upon the planned visit, Mugisuddin said in turn that the situation in Syria will be high on the agenda.

He recalled that during Putin's previous visits to Turkey, priority was given to bilateral trade and economic relations, while this time "the main topic of bilateral talks will be the situation in Syria and the future of this Arab country."

Also on the table will be restoring former cooperation in the trade, economic and energy sectors as well as the deteriorating situation in Europe, the shift of the center of gravity of world politics towards Eurasia and the upcoming elections in the United States, according to Mugisuddin.

Commenting on the ongoing full-fledged restoration of Russian-Turkish cooperation, he remained upbeat about further development in bilateral ties.

"First of all, I want to say that many in Turkey, including me, are very happy with this rapidly growing development of our relations, something that is a quite natural situation," according to him.

"In contrast, the period of the crisis in our relations should be considered an abnormal situation which was created artificially, by certain external forces. The fact that we are neighbors with deep historical ties implies the need to establish close contacts in all key areas. In Turkey we are very pleased that the artificially created crisis period is already behind us," Mugisuddin said.
Of course a reference to the downing of the Russian jet! 'created artificially by certain external forces'

Cooperation in Trade and Economy and the Shift towards Eurasia:

Gazprom Has Green Light Offshore Turkey
Russian Gazprom has received through diplomatic channels permission to conduct research on two branches of Turkish Stream in Turkey's territorial waters, the Russian company reported.

"It should be noted the constructive, efficient cooperation with Turkish partners of the project. The TurkStream project is progressing at commendable speed. An important new resolution for its implementation has been obtained," CEO Alexei Miller said September 30.
Turkstream Project

Russia's president Vladimir Putin is expected to visit to Turkey in October, both his spokesman Dmitri Peskov and the head of the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) Rifat Hisarciklioglu announced this week.

Peskov did not elaborate on Putin’s agenda, but Hisarciklioglu said that his visit would focus on a number of issues including Turkish Stream.

Gazprom and Turkish Botas in December 2014 signed a memorandum of understanding on building Turkish Stream. The pipeline will follow 660 km of the old South Stream corridor in the Black Sea and then strike out in a new direction for 250 km towards the European part of Turkey. South Stream was to have landed in Bulgaria. Up to 15.75bn m³/yr will go to Turkey in the first of possibly four strands.

Russia has said it hopes to sign an agreement with Turkey in October on the implementation of the Turkish Stream project which Gazprom operates.

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  1. Hi Penny:

    Without a doubt...the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey is the single most important shift in world geopolitics. These two countries, working together, have the ability to restore order to the Middle East. Unless.....of course....they are not allowed to meet in mid-October. Perhaps some techtonic event will Moscow has warned against.



    3. I loved your post Greencrow. Will look at your posts more often.

    4. @anonymous, that GAP link.. very interesting

    5. NATO had deployed AWACS to one of its Forward Operating Bases (FOB) in
      the Central Anatolian province of Konya in early 2016 in a bid to enhance
      Turkey’s air defense capability upon the Turkish government’s call. It was
      not yet decided whether the AWACS will be deployed to Konya but Vershbow
      said, “They will either use Turkish airspace or international airspace,”
      indicating they wouldn’t fly over Syrian or Iraqi airspace.

    6. Let's see if all of this talk amounts to anything positive. Will Erdogan actually do anything that upsets the current balance? Will Turkish actions go beyond lip service to Moscow? Will he finally chose between Russia and de facto subserviance to empire? October is shaping up to be historically significant.

    7. Hey GC:

      " These two countries, working together, have the ability to restore order to the Middle East"

      I agree and would expand that to into Asia also

    8. anon: thanks for the links- I did start to read one, but, was trying to stay away from here yesterday, for a bit of a break- not entirely successful, but didn't spend the usual amount of time absorbed in geo politics

    9. Charles " Will Erdogan actually do anything that upsets the current balance?"

      He already has. He was all along. Turkey traded with Iran the whole time they were under sanctions-
      This is what the whole Gold scandal is about- why the US arrested the Turkish gold trader- bought oil for gold from Iran to circumvent the sanctions

      Turkey traded with Russia when the US sanctioned them

      Turkey has upset the balance already- the attempted coup- the unwillingness to give up the cult leader in the keystone state- the demonization of Erdogan
      all indications of US disapproval

  2. Thanks Penny. I appreciate your blog content very much.

  3. Thanks Penny. I appreciate your blog content very much.

  4. Replies
    1. Lunmakaren:
      feel free to leave us some input when you can- you would surely offers us all a different perspective on what is discussed here. It would be great :)

  5. Hi Penny, check out this article about the PAK group:

    1. thanks ally: I had actually seen that one and no surprise there at all!

  6. And this:

    1. I'll have a look
      thanks ally

    2. Do you think that Erdogan will get Turkey out of Nato and join the SCO instead?

    3. Can Erdogan get Turkey out of NATO?
      I don't know

      Turkey already has observer status with the SCO to my understanding. Below are a couple of newer articles about Turkey and the SCO

      It appears as if Turkey is already participatory at some levels and full membership is possible

      "Turkey, in its current dialogue partner role, is actually participating in some of the organization's events. Within the scope of the SCO, China and Turkey have high potential in terms of working together. For example, the two countries could cooperate to fight threats that jeopardize regional security and stability … drug trafficking, transnational crimes. The two countries have common security threats. On the other hand, the two countries could complement each other in economic terms. There is also a high potential for cooperation in the areas of trade, economy, finance, energy, transportation, science, technology and tourism. China has a big market, vast amount of capital, developing technology and excess industrial capacity. Turkey is located in the center of Europe and Asia, thus it is building a bridge between Europe and Asia in terms of markets. If the two countries improve their cooperation with the SCO, they may speed up the construction of the One Generation-One Road project, Turkey may improve its strategic position, and it may bring dynamism to social and economic progress. Also, the SCO may improve their cooperation in the areas of politics, economy, security, culture and even regional stability, security and welfare."

      “The SCO is working on improving the administrative and financial basis for new members. The member states of the SCO will meet and make a decision together on the applications proposed by states that are interested in joining,” said a senior Chinese official on Friday.

      In addition, he said the SCO observes the principle of openness and values the partnership with observer countries, including Turkey as a dialogue partner, adding that “the SCO is mapping out detailed cooperative measures.”
      "Turkey's aspirations for membership in the Russian and Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) might materialize as the organization moves towards admitting new members, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a special talk with Today's Zaman.

    4. Thanks for the info. I have talkes to some Turkish people and they have said that Iran is a better ally for Turkey than the gulf and Israel. Turkey and Iran share similar interests with regards to the Kurdish project. And many Turks would like an alliance with Russia and China. Many Turks have know Russians who have come to Turkey as tourists. But what would Nato do if Turkey, the world's most strategic country decided to leave?

    5. HDP is visiting Kurdish areas, calling for an uprising according to Kurd family. They don't know anything about British troops