Wednesday, November 30, 2016

This Is The End Of Syria (?)

I hope it is not the end of Syria. However, the writer from Alternet is clearly not optimistic. The title accompanies the alternet article- The question mark is mine.

Vijay Prashad

The Souk - Old Aleppo

"The Syrian Arab Army is now within sight of taking back all of Aleppo. For several years now, the eastern part of Aleppo – one of Syria’s oldest and most beautiful cities – has been in the hands of the armed opposition. The western part has been in the hands of the Syrian government. Now with the Syrian army hastily taking the Hanano as well as Jabal Badro and Baadeen districts, the corridor used by the opposition fighters to resupply them from the Syrian countryside (via Iraq) and from across the Turkish border is now substantially closed. Apart from small pockets of hardened resistance, the bulk of Aleppo will soon be in the hands of the government.
 Several factors came together to make the assault on the eastern part of Aleppo possible. It was not the presence of Hezbollah and the Iraqi and Iranian militias nor was it the presence of Russian air support that made the difference for the Syrian army. These assets had been available to the Syrian government for several years now. There had been no appetite to use them previously. Attacks had been made on eastern Aleppo, but nothing of the scale as has been seen now – nor with the ferocity and speed with which the Syrian army moves to close the corridor out of eastern Aleppo. Civilian casualties are certainly high, and so too have been the attacks on key infrastructure in this part of the city. The Syrian army is now attacking not to put pressure on the armed opposition, but to defeat it.
The thrust to take all of Aleppo came for other – mainly three - reasons, says a well-informed contact in the Syrian armed forces.
 These three reasons are (1) the withdrawal of Turkish support for the armed opposition, (2) the collapse of the Western-backed rebels in southern Syria and  (3) the Iraqi-Western push against ISIS in Mosul.

 Let's talk about withdrawal of support by Turkey. As reported here at the blog there was an agreement between Russia and Turkey!  

Pretty certain I mentioned this on more then one occasion. Here's one post on the topic: Russia and Turkey Plot The Endgame in Aleppo

You may also want to look at the article written by Ollie Richardson from StalkerZone.org
subject of the post before this one:Erdogan Declares War on Syria or Just More Sensationalist Spin from Alt Media Analysts
 
 " Russia’s agreement with Turkey involving the latter’s entrance in the Syrian theatre did not provisionally include any definite red lines. Thus, these lines will be drawn in the sand where ever and when ever it is deemed necessary"

The Souk in Old Aleppo
 But  for now we'll go back to the Alternet piece

(1)Turkey’s withdrawal: The main reason for the Syrian army’s thrust, says my contact, is that the Turkish government has withdrawn its material support for the armed opposition inside Aleppo. Essential supplies from the Gulf Arab states and from Turkey had come across the border crossing at Azaz. (That’s done)
 Previous comments from Rescue who informed us all that this had occurred:
Yes. The Turks removed all their terrorist proxies from the SW Aleppo front & moved them to N. Aleppo. Later they have moved many more from Idlib to their occupation zone. They have also prevented the rebels inside & out from receiving more arms. Encouraged rebel civil wars ect. This has weakened the rebels, & is the cause of the SAA imminent liberation of Aleppo.

The removal of Turkish backed terrorists from
the Aleppo frontline was public news. All analysts are now claiming this is the reason for Aleppos liberation. Pro-rebel accounts are furious with Turkey, right now.

The Citadel
 The alternet author cites some incidents they believe influenced Turkey’s decision to withdraw support- I don’t agree with the way they are presented though they aren’t entirely off base. - Three biggies IMO would be the Reyhanli bombing. The PKK restarting their war with the Turkish state.(The Gezi park protests being part of the PKK kick off)  And finally the coup.

You can read  the authors contention at the linked article

2) Collapse of southern rebels- Note that this author never mentions Israel as a supplier of terrorists and arms- so we're getting a limited hangout even here!

“Collapse of the Southern Front. The West – particularly the United States – has long recognized that the armed opposition are closely linked with one form or another of radical extremism.  Lack of confidence from their main backers – the West – revived tensions within the Front. One of its main constituents, the Syrian Revolutionary Front, faced a leadership crisis. The old al-Qaeda group – Jabhat al-Nusra – had renamed itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham to attempt to rebrand itself as a nationalist formation. Its leadership – namely Saleh al-Hamwi – called for a new leadership in the Syrian Revolutionary Front, to depose the more nationalist minded leaders and substitute them for Islamists. This was the final blow to the attempt to create a ‘moderate’ force against the Damascus government”
In my opinion, rather then this being about extremism in the 'moderates'- Which, the US was cool with, as was Israel. In fact it suited them just fine!  More sensibly the problem was all the bad PR associated with the US/Israel’s thugs. That was the final straw- No one was believing the moderate rebel meme. No one at all. The battle for your mind and my mind had failed.

 3) Battle for Mosul (Iraq): Finally, the Iraqi government – fully backed (questionable???) by the West – launched a major attack on ISIS-controlled Mosul in Iraq. This was on 21 October 2016. A week later, the Syrian government opened up its own offensive in Aleppo. My Syrian interlocutor who is in the armed forces told me that there were two reasons for the push in November. The first is that the government knew that the attack on eastern Aleppo would bring heavy casualties. They calculated that the Iraqi-Western push into Mosul would also produce a large number of casualties. The West would, therefore, have to be more forgiving of the Syrian advance given that there is no possibility of taking a city without great hardship and death. The French desire to have UN Security Council action to prevent the final push by the Syrian Army will amount to little. The second reason is that once the West helps the Iraqis to take Mosul, they will make a dash for Raqqa. The Syrian army wants to take Aleppo and then turn its energy towards Raqqa.
Agreed that this the Syrian army wants and has to take Raqqa.

And this is where it all goes back to al Bab!

*All Eyes On al-Bab: Putin Confirms- No Russian Jets Struck Turkish Soldiers

 Turkey and Russia are still communicating.

Syria is still working on reconciling.

And there is more to read at alternet, if you choose to, as for me... I'm saying goodnight!

From earlier today- thanks again Ally :)

Erdogan Declares War on Syria or Just More Sensationalist Spin from Alt Media Analysts

22 comments:

  1. How to make sense of this article and its headline?

    Perhaps it would make sense if it was published in the NYT. The author is a professor of international studies at Trinity College in Hartford, Connecticut; hardly a hotbed of anti-establishment views, I would think.

    Though he doesn't come out and say so, he seems to be equating the recapture of Aleppo by the Syrian govt forces with the end of Syria.

    I think the good professor needs his pay check more than a reality check.

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    1. hey james

      The reason I excluded vast chunks of the article was because it was overly pessimistic

      The author ignored the reconciliation that has been on going, intentionally and obviously in my opinion.
      (remember it is a limited hangout article)

      The author didn't so much equate the retaking of Aleppo from terrorist as the reason for the end of Syria- rather I found the author was claiming the taking back of Aleppo would make no difference because Syria was doomed to it's fate for all the reasons laid out by author.

      I added the news about the campaign for reconciliation continuing quite succesfully, that can go a long way towards healing Syria and hopefully we won't have a 'failed state' aka Libya- which was mentioned in the alternet piece.

      Delete
  2. Vijay Prashad is a faux, anti-war leftist, or socialist, as he calls himself.
    He in agaist wrote an article about how evil Assad was to the besieged ppl of E.Aleppo.

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    1. It was obvious he is pro NATO
      I really just like the three reasons Aleppo has been taken back- I think they are valid

      Delete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. It's fine, great article. Glad to see that Ollie is reading your blog as well, shows that you have intelligent and informed people reading this blog. And just another link: http://www.syriatimes.sy/index.php/news/world/27899-lavrov-calls-on-west-to-abandon-geopolitical-engineering-in-middle-east

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  5. I never read him and James nails it.

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    1. my first time reading this author also- like james said he get's paid. I don't- So I can critique the work in an unowned fashion.

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  6. balderdash... not worth the energy taken to write or read it

    IMHO

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    1. my post or the article?
      cause as you can read I've a different take on what was written.
      Could you be more clear karin?
      thanks :)

      Delete
    2. I just saw this when I remembered to come back and explain that YES, I meant HIS not YOURS ( you should have known better )

      I have days where I just get sick and tired of the millions of words a day written by hacks like that !!

      It would upset me very much if you thought I was being ugly to you.. no way that would ever be Penny.. too much respect !!

      karin

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    3. Hi karin:
      I didn't think you were being ugly to me- no worries about that.

      I just wondered cause it wasn't clear that's all :)
      and I appreciate your input a great deal too.

      Delete
  7. Ah Pensie...

    Never take your eyes of the true culprits and you didn't! Easy to see, spot, and throw away. Desperation at hand using any media outlet possible...scraping out a shell of boldface lies. This is just another one! Oh so vague the source...oh so deliberate the (wishful) connection of Libya. Right on james. thanks to all superior minded justice...it's like the light coming down in the The Souk!

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    1. I could pick apart this whole article and put flags at almost every sentence...but here is a dead giveaway at the very end.

      ["In this conflict, as well, the Syrian government blames outsiders for trying to break Syria. There is no doubt that both in 1980 and over these past five years, regional powers with Western backing have attempted to overthrow the Assad government. But the problem does not only lie with these outsiders. Internal contradictions will remain alive and well. Syria did not tackle these effectively in the aftermath of the 1980 uprising in Aleppo. It had a second edition – in Hama in 1982, which was crushed with great brutality. This civil war will not end unless Syria is able to handle these internal contradictions. Extreme violence cannot overcome them. It will require a great deal of effort to revive the lifeblood of Syrian nationalism, to bring unity to people divided deeply and now with blood as the moat between them."]

      "BUT" How this word negates what is put in front of it! And who precisely (with his vague source) are the culprits who strive to divide a country, state, community, and family? Who are famously known to "option coup" from within across the world? Who are the known delinquents...
      definition: de·lin·quent
      dəˈliNGkwənt/
      adjective
      1.
      (typically of a young person or that person's behavior) showing or characterized by a tendency to commit crime, particularly minor crime.
      "delinquent children"
      synonyms: lawless, lawbreaking, criminal; errant, badly behaved, troublesome, difficult, unruly, disobedient, uncontrollable
      "delinquent teenagers"
      noun
      1.
      a delinquent person.
      "young delinquents"
      synonyms: offender, wrongdoer, malefactor, lawbreaker, culprit, criminal; hooligan, vandal, mischief-maker, ruffian, hoodlum, lowlife, punk; young offender
      "young delinquents"

      ...that exist to live for chaos since their evil spawn of inception?

      ISRAEL/JEWS/OIL/RESOURCES/CONTROL OF THE WORLD

      THIS WHOLE ARTICLE IS WORSE THAN A RAT! The last I heard rats don't know how to write propaganda.

      Delete
    2. Here is just a 'few' examples for anyone new here...

      https://alethonews.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/hermon-national-park-land-appropriation-and-settlement-expansion-condemned-by-human-rights-group/

      ...and the real example of inside strife made by outsider's

      https://alethonews.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/saving-poroshenko-us-state-dept-offers-800k-to-ukraine-ngos/

      Let's not forget that the MAJORITY Syrians 90+% voted for President Assad and his father before him.

      Delete
  8. Hey Wallflower:

    "Never take your eyes of the true culprits and you didn't"

    Thanks Wallflower- This article like anything from say NYT's is a mix of truth and obfuscation

    Like I said, mostly used for the three reasons Aleppo is being taken back now- I think the three basic reasons are correct

    -Turkey withdrew it's proxies
    -The rebels- it can't be hidden how despicable they are- no matter how hard the msm lies
    -Mosul: the west will turn to raqqa and Syria can't take back Raqqa unless they have aleppo

    I've discussed this in some previous post

    The NATO tyranny on the other hand can live with Syria taking Aleppo and them holding Raqqa knowing they can run their thugs out of Raqqa and back into Aleppo- so Aleppo has to be as secure and under control as they can get it.

    I think the period between the election and what looks to be the Trump presidency is also a factor

    It's sort of a grey space of time..


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    1. wallflower "And who precisely (with his vague source) are the culprits who strive to divide a country, state, community, and family?"

      don't expect that person to mention the US/Israel/NATO plot to remake the middle east for the benefit of Israel aka Kurdistan aka israel 2.0.
      Allude to it but blame Syria for everything- typical.


      regarding Here is just a 'few' examples for anyone new here...

      https://alethonews.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/hermon-national-park-land-appropriation-and-settlement-expansion-condemned-by-human-rights-group/


      That was included in the post from the other day the expansion of illegal settlements in Syria's golan and the stealing of land for a park


      http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/11/while-cats-away-israel-plots-largest.html


      "Al-Marsad also calls attention to a second Israeli plan for the occupied Syrian Golan, called ‘Hermon National Park.’ The park depends on appropriating 25,000 acres (more than 82,000 dunams) of agricultural land used by residents of Majd al-Shams and Ein Qynia.

      Notice how that passed right under the radar of the msm and so called alt media?

      Like the Israeli attack on Syria-

      But carry on to a distraction level over some hot air from Erdogan- shakes head

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  9. The pictures of Syria.. When I first started blogging on Syria- I included pictures of just what a beautiful country this was and all it's history-

    Had to stop doing it because I'd get so emotional about it's destruction- Then Tozz came along- He was from Aleppo. He talked to us all- And then he was gone.

    That sticks with me to this day.

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  10. http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/catastrophic-water-shortages-500000-mosul-2132390736

    http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2016/12/01/turkey-to-chair-asian-parliamentary-assembly-for-the-next-2-years

    A few more links that I have found. I posted some more earlier on and they haven't showed up. Anyway, you mentioned in 1 of your comments yesterday that Turkey can't openly withdraw from NATO because they will risk Attack. Could you expand on that?

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    1. Hi Ally: Recall me yammering on about perception?
      Perception is everything.
      The war for our minds is always on.

      Okay keeping that in mind think about how damaging it would be to Turkey to openly say they are leaving- they're out of here- NATO would take it as a huge insult- damaging their invincibility reputation- and Turkey would be quickly brought into line

      This is the reason I think much of what is occurring between Turkey is kept on the QT- though you can find the information

      NATO wants to look strong and invincible. A NATO falling apart does not project power.



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    2. So how long do you think the process will take? Will Erdogan be around for long? And will they ever announce their departure?

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    3. wish I had those answers Ally, but, I don't.
      sorry :(

      Delete

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