Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Syria: From Hot War to Frozen Conflict

Frozen Conflict
In international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

There is much talk about the war on Syria ending. I guess it’s all about how ending is defined?

The war on Iraq never ended after the ‘90 invasion. Though we were supposed to believe the '03 war was a new war, it was really a rebrand of the same war- Going from Gulf war to Iraq War.  Afterwards the Gulf/Iraq war morphed into an occupation that didn’t actually end in 2011,either, though that's the spin! The US Departure from Iraq was all Illusion!   The war against Iraq continues to this day... It’s been a long war- 27 years already.  The war in Syria looks to be following the same trajectory. Claims of it ending are greatly exaggerated.

 Judging by all that is reported. Syria will be federalized. The federalization will serve as the freezing of the conflict. For a time. Syria is a state that has become deeply divided.The division was intentionally created. The divisions will worsen still. It will be made to happen. The division will worsen until like Iraq, the state of Syria completely fractures.  There will be more fighting.
For now we'll talk about the conflict being frozen.  There will be an agreement that will please no one. Since the complete remake of the region has not taken place, yet. Russia is there to ensure it's interests are met. As are all other parties.

I’m not one that believes Russia is Syria’s great saviour- That ship sailed for me quite some time ago. To the contrary, I think Russia will act first and foremost in it’s own interest. Russia will enable Syria to stay as intact as Russia needs it to be. If Assad is looking for more, it will be up to him get back that which will be bargained away. In plain language a greatly weakened Assad will have to take back what is lost. If he can. If he cannot, he can look to Iraq as the future of Syria. Ugly isn’t it?

Assad said something interesting about Russia’s role regarding Israeli attacks against Syria

“I think Russia can play an important role in that regard, and the whole policy of Russia is based on the international law, it's based on the Charter of the United Nations, and the Security Council resolutions. So, they can discuss the same issues with the Israelis depending on this criteria, and they can play a role in order that Israel not attack Syria again in the future," Assad said.

Yup, Russia can. But, will they? Assad didn’t say they would. So, it’s anyone’s guess, really.
Flashback: March 01/2016- Vladimir Putin, Godfather of Kurdistan? Not a Parent of Kurdistan?
"Russia has sold Syria’s sovereignty down the river. As the US long did.
Both the US and Russia claim Syrian sovereignty is non negotiable. Both are lying. Would everyone feel better if I said- misleading?  Russia jumped into the Syrian fracas to block a split, a complete split, or a balkanization.  Pushing for some type of federated Syria instead of the US fracture. Speaking for myself, I wanted Syria to remain the nation that stole my heart. But, pretty much figured Russia was not going to save Syria in the way I’d hoped"
Flashback: Syria rejects Russian proposal for Kurdish federation

As of now it seems Syria’s initial rejection has turned into acceptance.. Resignedly, so. (to accept something as inevitable) There is still the possibility of a NATO/US intervention and safe zones. With some UN involvement. Safe zone talk has been around for sometime now- Obama and Trump, most recently, have both talked safe zones

Recall this one?

Flashback: NATO-Run Safe Zones Could Stabilize Syria- Invoke Article 5- US Election Unaffected
"First, NATO must stop the civil war in Syria by implementing the necessary no-fly zones and safe-haven enclaves. The new zone for President Bashar al-Assad and the Alawites must cover their area of influence, which is only about one-quarter of the country, in the West and North. This should stop the tidal wave of refugees to Europe.

NATO would take control of an existing airport in Syria, perhaps Deir Ezzour or Palmyra, thus countering the basing problem caused by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s denial of operating use of Incirlik air base to America and NATO"
 A way to occupy Syria without affecting the US election last year- Relinked due to the location mentioned for NATO taking control of an existing airport— Same locale as the Israeli airstrike last week- Palmyra. Could that airstrike by Israel have been about aiding in this or a similar  plan? Palmyra. The Israeli airstrikes can't just be a happenstance kind of occurrence.

Getting back to Russia can help with protecting Syria from Israeli air strikes, sure, but will they?

Let’s talk about rumours of Russia assisting the PKK in Syria. Kurds as proxies for both the Russians and the US/UK goes way back. Read: West Unhinged Over Turkish Referendum

 I don’t believe the Russians are in as deep with the PKK as the US/UK/Israel are- However the Russians are definitely playing the game- Yesterday the PKK in Afrin were claiming Russia was building a base, offering training while plying them with vodka and caviar...

It seems sensible there is some truth to this, but, the claims are also likely exaggerated (hence my vodka and caviar reference) I noticed the Kurds alone were making this claim and I had not seen anything from the Russians- A short time later the Russians clarified and said no base was being built for the Kurds.

“In accordance with the Russian-Turkish agreement signed on December 30, 2016, the Russian Center of Reconciliation carries out round-the-clock ceasefire monitoring. To prevent the violation of the ceasefire, one of the branches of the Center has been set up near Afrin, in a spot bordering the territory held by the Kurdish militias, and that under the command of the Turkish-controlled Free Syrian Army.”
The US is also claiming they are completely unaware of this base.

Brief update... Just something to consider

So Russia is helping to strengthen a group whose vision of post-war Syria is nothing like the one Mr Al Assad wants and against which Turkey is actively fighting.
So Russia assisting the YPG/PKK? In whose interests? Certainly not Assad's claimed interest.

I really do not believe at this point in time that Russia is building a base. A base is a commitment. A foreign base is a bigger commitment. I’m not so sure Russia has the resources, unlike the US, to commit. I could be wrong. That all said it seems sensible that Russia, with an eye to future business deals, would not alienate the PKK/YPG

The PKK/YPG is planning on creating a state military
 According to YPG Spokesperson Redur Xelil, the unit plans to turn itself into a more organized force similar to an army.
“We aspire to exceed 100,000 fighters in the second half of 2017,” he added.
 A state needs an army.  Then, pipelines? An army to protect the pipelines? 
Future business for Russia? It's all up for grabs right now isn't it?
War is a perverted form of doing business.

From earlier:

Shadowy Unmarked S-92 SuperHawk Reemerges in Middle East Hot Spot


 Hoping to tackle the Turkish aspect of this tomorrow, sometime..

 

3 comments:

  1. Lebanon will not cave to Israeli pressure to give up its Mediterranean offshore oil and gas exploration activities in maritime territory disputed between the two countries, Lebanese Minister of Energy and Water Cesar Abou Khalil said Tuesday. sputnik

    http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2017/03/winds-of-war-blow-from-israels-borders.html?showComment=1489973911009#c7904185048446714348

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's interesting that Israel goes to the UN asking for the US and the UN to pressure Lebanon..

      So the US influences the US? Because the UN doesn't influence the US..

      Delete
    2. At least Lebanon outlines and informs all of their borders.. unlike Israel

      "We have outlined and informed the United Nations with our borders according to the international treaties and therefore we have sovereign right to benefit from our wealth and we will not back down from this right no matter what the threats are," Khalil told the al Mayadeen channel.

      Delete

TROLLS &SPAM WILL BE DELETED WITHOUT HESITATION
KEEP IT RELEVANT. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS