Sunday, April 16, 2017

Turkey's Referendum As Results Come In


 Watching results via.. Yenisafak, they have an interactive map

http://www.yenisafak.com/en/secim-referandum-2017/secim-sonuclari

Also jamesinturkey  is providing some live coverage. We met james in yesterday's post Turkey's Referendum: "To Close To Call" ???

I've been following the results of the referendum all morning..
going between jamesinturkey and Yenisafak

UPDATE:

Diyarbakir results have been flipped from early polling maps- Contradicting both the polling and the DW report from a week or so ago.

Then there is a report "speculation" from CNN Turk aka CIA/ Gulen media that

https://www.24liveblog.com/live/1384525

  6.57pm Block results service? by Mike
On CNN Turk, journalist Murat Yetkin says there is speculation that the Supreme Election Commission (YSK) has blocked its results service to some political parties.

This is going to run through the five eyes media like a bad case of the stomache flu, if you know what I mean? It's looking very much to me as if interested outside parties are creating perceptions and have probably managed to skew the results of this referendum to make the Yes vote appear weaker then it has actually been polling at for months. In other words to guarantee the results the 5 eyes media had already projected.

Presenting the Turkish populace as nearly equally divided. Enabling greater demonization of the Turkish leadership- if that's even possible- Erdogan's been a 'dictator" and the Sultan and a tyrant and a whatever other label that could be applied for years now- And he managed all that from his largely ceremonial Presidential position- Quite amazing, if not entirely unrealistic

There was a shooting at a Diyarkabir polling station which could have served as a distraction-

Two Killed in Gunfire in School During Referendum Voting in Turkey’s Diyarbakir

Results look to be a 51 yes /49 no- A strangely familiar result...

Predictions:

-Destabilization of Turkey to worsen

-The PKK shall return to attacking with a vengeance

- "Peaceful Protests" shall commence.. centered around Izmir province (coastal and US base)
South Eastern provinces & "European Turkey" Istanbul

-Terror attacks in Ankara

https://www.24liveblog.com/live/1384525

  • The Yes camp has declared victory in Turkey's executive presidency referendum, based on results provided by Anadolu Agency
  • But the No camp has not conceded and has vowed to contest the results.

Erdoğan: "We call on all other countries to respect the decision of the Turkish people."
We expect our allies to do more to support our fight against separatism and terrorism, he adds.
It would be absurd to believe that this referendum was undertaken on anything but favourable for the yes vote poll results
I'm suggesting that the pre-referendum polling had been consistent with the 60/40 internal polling results I had previously reported- which would have been plus or minus maybe 3 to 5 percentage points- but could not have been today's result.

Yes, I am suggesting external forces interfered in the referendum.


13 comments:

  1. Hollywood anti-Turkish propaganda?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Promise_(2016_film)

    Now if Oscar Isaac was playing a donmeh then we'd start getting a more truthful portrayal...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well well well isn't that timed just right..
      Definite anti Turkish propaganda

      Hollywood and the intelligence agencies always thick as thieves-

      Delete
    2. In response of that movie, this movie was made http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4943322/

      Delete
    3. OMG- Internet Movie Database isn't to biases and politically motivated- That trivia is out of this world- but then that stupid movie about north korea was ten stars or whatever a perfect movie- roflmao

      Kaz- what are your thoughts on the election and btw- I'm going to watch the Turkish movie if I can

      I get enough hollyweird propaganda on a regular basis-

      Delete
    4. I have been comparing the votes with the 2015 elections and they look similar but only this time they a slightly more votes Kurdish area and in general. As I suspected this became a Yes or No Vote to Erdogan instead of yes or no to system change.

      So in a Nutshell, the results seems to be (AKP + half of the MHP) vs Everyone. Like it was in the 2015 elections

      2015 Election results
      http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2015-kasim/secim-sonuclari

      2017 Referendum results
      http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-referandum-2017/secim-sonuclari

      Delete
    5. Admittedly not knowing all the ins and outs of this and going on the pre referendum polling alone makes me think things aren't right

      Then if you look at the outside of Turkey vote it's nearly identical to the polling conducted by jamesinturkey


      Evet
      %59,2
      807.578

      Hayır
      %40,8

      I blogged on the 2015 election and some of the statements by observers made me wonder what it was they were up to

      Entirely an outsider perspective of course

      I was also thinking about what Henri Barkey said

      " Turks have a tendency to buck the system when they feel that the rules of the game are unfair or that they are being bullied by their leaders. No one should assume that the vote will turn out the way Erdogan has planned"

      Is it realistic to believe that interested parties would actually leave this to the Turks to decide?
      I don't think so.

      And my final thought goes back to what I said about the 'yes' side polling well in advance of undertaking this referendum to be certain of a comfortable win- That most assuredly did not occur

      I get the impression Erdogan wouldn't have taken such a risk- He is shrewd. He wouldn't have misjudged-

      Delete
    6. I should add that NO political leader or party anywhere would take that type of risk in a referendum- perception being everything

      Delete
    7. From what I deduce, People in Turkey have constantly been under cheap propaganda for 10+ years, the universities in turkey have been in favour of leftist ideas for quite a while and with it the anti-Erdogan sentiment. Turkey has a stable government for quite some time which give them even more reason to be against, while they just ignore everything before that, if it works now why do we need to change mentality. Further more this entire polling, there is no guarantee for it to be accurate because people in the end give their real choice in the ballot box plus and there is no guarantee that the samples they took is an big and diverse enough for an accurate representation.

      We can only act with what we know. So there is either proof that they tampered with the numbers and prove that these result are not right results or they are accurate.

      I thus repeat the following, the amount of disinformation which has been going on made this a do you Trust Erdogan Yes or No vote instead of this new system.

      Please do what you think I am mistaken in from your perspective.

      Delete
    8. Kaz- I understand what it is you are saying- and thank you for sharing it

      Delete
  2. Well everything is on schedule in Turkey, now what?
    Leave nato?




    PennyApril 16, 2017 at 3:14 PM

    I agree they knew they had the numbers correct before the vote.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't imagine they didn't jo
      The now what?

      Things get worse for Turkey and Syria

      Delete
  3. Hi Penny
    I just read this and thought to share it re the Turkish referendum. Changing the rules once voting is underway, (Stamped or unstamped ballots) as this suggests, means either the fix is in, (most likely) or it is part of the "media Blitz to destabilize the result.

    Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Kemalist-leaning CHP, Turkey's largest opposition party, has already said his party will not accept the results, due to the fact that the High Electoral Board changed the rules of voting not long after the voting has started. It declared that all unstamped ballots will be counted as valid (despite the official rules that were initially introduced stated they will not be), unless they are proven to have been brought from outside, thus making a move not made in accordance with the law.

    Also Saker has a great article (you will need a cuppa and a sandwich handy, worth it. :-)
    http://thesaker.is/how-to-bring-down-the-elephant-in-the-room/

    Cheers
    Gordon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. thanks Gordon- I will check it out!
      went to look and it does look like a lengthy read I'll get to it later or tomorrow

      Delete

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