Thursday, August 31, 2017

Iraq and Syria conflicts threatens to reshape regional map

IHS Janes

Let's see, how many years have I been writing on this remake? 
IHS Janes, just stating the obvious.

Jonathan Spyer - IHS Jane's Intelligence Review
30 August 2017
Key Points

    The prospect of Iraq and Syria returning to a system of centralised governance by a single authority is extremely low, although the Islamic State will lose its territorial holdings in the region and revert to insurgency.
    There is no reasonable scenario in the coming five years in which the Syrian government can be defeated by rebel forces, but the complete re-conquest of all Syrian territory by government forces is equally unlikely.
    De facto changes to the regional map will include the survival of a Kurdish enclave of considerable size in northeastern Syria and the establishment of a quasi-independent Kurdistan.

Must be just a coincidence that the plan, that was unfolding in plain site,  looks to be coming to fruition. For all the coincidence theorists out and about...

5 comments:

  1. US takes out another bridge as Assad forces take ground. Also recals the Israeli threats to Lebanon and the recent shuttle diploacy. When does the IDF move?

    With Lebanon no longer hiding Hezbollah’s role, next war must hit civilians: Israeli Minister.
    “The Lebanese institutions, its infrastructure, airport, power stations, traffic junctions, Lebanese Army bases – they should all be legitimate targets if a war breaks out. That’s what we should already be saying to them and the world now. If Hezbollah fires missiles at the Israeli home front, this will mean sending Lebanon back to the Middle Ages,” he said. “Life in Lebanon today is not bad – certainly compared to what’s going on in Syria. Lebanon’s civilians, including the Shi’ite population, will understand that this is what lies in store for them if Hezbollah is entangling them for its own reasons, or even at the behest of Iran.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/30/us-bombs-bridge-syria-block-convoy-isil-fighters-evacauated/

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq/u-s-strike-destroys-bridge-restricts-islamic-state-in-mosul-official-idUSKBN13H0Z1

    Trying to halt the advance
    https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-september-1-2017-army-advances-deep-inside-deir-ezzor-province/

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    Replies
    1. Russian sorties accelerating.
      http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2017/Aug-29/417499-russia-deploys-two-stealth-submarines-to-mediterranean.ashx

      Kalibr coming?

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    2. U.S. media reported that such a secret document either existed or was being prepared by the Department of State in late June, before the presidents of Russia and U.S. met in Hamburg, Antonov said. "It allegedly urged Russia to abstain from aggressive moves against U.S. interests, help resolve the Syria situation in a way needed by Washington and deal with North Korea, and ensure the achievement of mutual political goals in the strategic stability area," he said.

      http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?y=2017&m=8&d=31&pg=9&id=774681

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    3. Yet Russia is stating they received no such agreement?
      Russia gets no '3-stage normalization plan' from U.S. - new ambassador

      MOSCOW. Aug 31 (Interfax) - The United States has not submitted any three-stage plan of normalizing relations with Russia, new Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov told the Kommersant newspaper in an interview.

      "We have not received any 'three-stage' normalization plans from Washington," Antonov said.


      "By the way, we sent a document containing our considerations on possible steps towards improving relations to the United States back in March, in the course of preparations for the presidential meeting," Antonov said.

      "It put emphasis on the areas where our interests clearly overlap and where practical results can be rapidly achieved. In addition to the apparent field of antiterrorism, there is need for coordinating efforts of Russia and the United States in the suppression of other dangerous challenges, such as drug trafficking, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and cyber crime," he said.

      "We have been discussing those issues with U.S. partners, but it is not a secret that the new Washington team has not fully formulated its approach to many items of the international dossier. We also have to keep in mind the complex domestic political situation in the United States," Antonov said.

      U.S. media reported that such a secret document either existed or was being prepared by the Department of State in late June, before the presidents of Russia and U.S. met in Hamburg, Antonov said. "It allegedly urged Russia to abstain from aggressive moves against U.S. interests, help resolve the Syria situation in a way needed by Washington and deal with North Korea, and ensure the achievement of mutual political goals in the strategic stability area," he said

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    4. I am sort of expect Israel to move- the news reports about Netanyahu are being presented as if Israel is the mad dog in the pound...

      Canada has soldiers at the border of both Jordan and Lebanon- If Canada has soldiers there so do other NATO nations

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