Monday, August 28, 2017

One Day in September Could Wreak Havoc In the Middle East

 That day is, of course, September 25 2017. (We may all want to keep that date firmly in our minds)  When the semi autonomous "Kurdish" region in Iraq votes for "independence" What will occur afterwards? Will the US and Israel really sit on the sidelines as this oped writer suggests? I find that contention absurd!

Kurdistan Independence: One Day in September Could Wreak Havoc in the Middle East
Oped via Haaretz
 If Iraqi Kurds vote in referendum for independence next month, Iran and Turkey could launch an invasion, (possible, entirely possible)  while Israel and the U.S. may be forced to sit on the sidelines to protect ties with Ankara (I don't believe that for a moment)
"How often do the governments and regimes of the United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria agree on the same policy? Next to never. But for once, they are on the same page about an event scheduled to take place a month from now. All are trying, in some cases using threats, to stop the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the semi-autonomous administration of the Kurdish region in Northern Iraq, from holding an independence referendum on September 25. (I've seen no real indication the US or Israel is opposed to this referendum- In fact it seems more sensible they need the referendum to advance their remake the region agenda. Not sure about Russia? Definitely got the idea that Iran and Turkey are opposed!)
Flashback  Assad's Speech - Eyes On The Deir Ez-Zor Keystone


Flashback:  US Increases Military Posts in Kurd Annexed Syria: Vindicated Again
"The KRG has declared that the referendum will be “binding” - in other words, if a majority of the 5 million voters choose independence, as is widely expected, they will initiate the breakaway process. Iraq’s Shi’ite-dominated government in Baghdad has made it clear that they will not recognize the referendum’s results, but it is unclear how they can prevent Kurdish independence.

Iraq’s army is still relatively weak and tied up with fighting ISIS, (that's fortunate for the remake the region agenda, no?)  and it has no bases in Iraqi Kurdistan, where the Kurdish Peshmerga militia controls security and the borders. Iraq can however rely on much more powerful neighbors to oppose the Kurds' departure. It will be a very difficult divorce for both sides"

Kurdistan

"Last Wednesday, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, made a rare visit to Ankara. (covered in flashback above) On the agenda was Iran and Turkey’s joint opposition to Kurdish independence. Both countries share borders with Iraqi Kurdistan and have large Kurdish minorities (an estimated three-quarters of all the Kurds in the Middle East live in Turkey and Iran) which could seek to break away and join a new independent Kurdistan.

Turkey’s President Reccep Tayip Erdogan, who until a few years ago supported a peace agreement with the Kurds in his country, ( Until the PKK ended the ceasefire) has pursued a hard-line nationalist anti-Kurd (Anti PKK- anti terror) policy of late, which has included the arrest of most of the members of the (Identity Politics- Divisive)  HDP Kurdish party. An independent Kurdistan would be a boost for Turkey's Kurdish citizens. (Would it be? Spin with no substance is just spin. Many of Turkey's kurds have voted for Erdogan's AKP party- By that I mean lots and lots of them who do not support the PKK)

Flashback:  July 28/2015: PKK Ended Ceasefire Weeks Ago? A stream of the latest news
"Iran also has additional reasons to block Kurdish independence. The Kurds of Iraq control key border regions with Iran and Syria, regions which Iran plans to dominate to create a land-corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean, thought Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. While, for domestic reasons, Erdogan has been talking up in recent days the prospect of joint Turkish-Iranian action against Kurdish independence in Iraq, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have sought to squelch such talk. It could harm their attempts to push forward military operations already taking place, in which they would prefer for now to cooperate with various Kurdish forces on the ground. But a month from now, if in the wake of the referendum the Kurds seriously embark on the path independence, an Iranian-Turkish alliance to violently quash it is a distinct possibility.

Recognizing that these developments could make matters in the region even more volatile, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis was in the Kurdish capital Erbil this week, urging KRG President Masoud Barazani to postpone the referendum. The US has been working closely both with the Iraqi government and with the Kurds on fighting ISIS both in Iraq and Syria. The American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which consists mainly of Kurdish fighters, is now at the forefront of the battle for capturing Raqqa, ISIS’ main base in Syria. Kurds are also expected to be heavily involved in the next stage of fighting, against ISIS’ last major strongholds in the Euphrates Valley, on either side of the Syria-Iraq border.

The war against ISIS is currently the only semi-coherent policy the Trump administration has in the Middle East, and Mattis is understandably concerned that a conflict over Kurdish independence will create further discord among what is already a disparate anti-ISIS alliance. But Barazani is extremely unlikely to back down, weeks before the referendum. Since 2014, KRG has de facto been disconnected from the central government in Baghdad.

The Kurds have sought to independently export oil from the rich oilfields around Kirkuk, leading the Iraqi government to cut off allocations from the state budget. As the export has proved problematic and oil prices plummeted, the Kurdish region has been cast into a deep financial crisis. Three years ago, hopes for an energy boom were high in Iraqi Kurdistan, new hotels and office blocks were being built in the main cities, which were linked by new wide highways. “Everything now is at a standstill,” laments one businessman from the city of Dohuk. “The hotels are empty, no investment is coming in and independence seems like the solution to all our troubles.”

An independent Kurdistan

"Can an independent Kurdistan survive? Landlocked and dependent on oil exports, it will have to reach some kind of deal with one of its neighbors to allow it to ship the oil out. But they are all resolutely opposed to Kurdish independence. There are internal challenges as well. The KRG’s political system is deeply divided between the main dynasties that control the political parties. Corruption is rife and the Peshmerga militia is a brave fighting force, which for two years, as the Iraqi army crumbled, was the only one opposing ISIS, but it also includes tens of thousands of ageing veterans who are paid pensions while moonlighting as security guards. Lacking sufficient heavy weaponry, the Peshmerga will be hard pressed to defend Kurdistan should Turkey or Iran decide to invade, with or without the invitation of the Iraqi government"

As of yet, notice, the Haaretz article doesn’t mention the huge role of the PKK in this entire situation? As if the PKK doesn’t even exist. Isn’t heavily armed by the UK/Usrael.-  Why is that? Obfuscation, of course!

"One country the Kurds are hoping to receive assistance from is Israel, which was one of the first customers for their oil. While some Israeli politicians have openly expressed support for Kurdish independence, the government has been careful not to take a position. There are a number of advantages for Israel in an independent Kurdistan. Its location astride Iran’s route to Syria and Lebanon is just the most obvious one. Kurdistan would be a headache not just for Iran, but for other potential rivals including Iraq, Turkey and Syria. Israeli businessmen are already welcome in Erbil, and the development needs of a new emerging and potentially pro-western nation would be worth billions. But Israel is loath at this point to do anything without coordination with the Americans.

Israel is also gingerly trying to rebuild the once strategic relationship with Turkey.  (Turkey can see the knife behind Israel's back) Diplomatic ties have been renewed but there is still a long way to go before the level of cooperation the countries once had can be restored. (Oh there it is!) As it stands, Turkey is the only neighbor of the Kurds with which Israel has open relations and through which the Kurdish oil can be shipped. In the short-term, the Kurds can create a lot of problems for Israel’s rivals in the region but for any long-term prospect of a regional alliance which will keep Iran out, Israel needs Turkey and Kurdistan to come to an understanding. The referendum won’t help that happen and the Kurdish expectations that Israel will swiftly recognize their independence are probably unfounded for now"
 The Kurds have been creating a whole lot of problem already for Israel's rivals- Which serves Israel just fine.

Flashback: Shlomo Ben Ami: “The Case for Kurdistan” As History Repeats

Flashback: Israel & the Kurds: Love by Proxy

Flashback: Kurdistan aka “Second Israel”- Ethnic Cleansing the Indigenous of the Middle East

 From earlier today..

Origins of the ADL- Leo Frank and the Murder of Mary Phagan

11 comments:

  1. Suuure, the USSA will sit on the sidelines, that's why they're building all those bases in Syria and Iraq, so they can just watch.

    Here's one brave lady journo who was fired for exposing CIA weapons flight to that area.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-28/journalist-interrogated-fired-story-linking-cia-and-syria-weapons-flights

    Wolf Blitzer wishes he had balls that BIG. Ditto for Donnie Lemon, but he can't count the balls bouncing against his chin.

    I remember back as a kid in the 1960's, always hearing Russia and China calling the USA the 'Great Satan.' Used to laugh at that, now I realize they weren't fibbing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Adding to the info of the link...Via NTS, Via AntiWar.com, from https://trud.bg/350-diplomatic-flights-carry-weapons-for-terrorists/

      After reading the whole sickening story the last of the info is the interesting bit about the [..."President of Azerbaijan llham Aliev is also an ethnical Kurd."]

      Read the whole story at https://trud.bg/350-diplomatic-flights-carry-weapons-for-terrorists/
      Azerbaijan's Silk Way Airlines transports weapons with diplomatic clearance for Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Congo 02.07.2017
      by Dilyana Gaytandzhieva. (note: I was not able to copy and paste this original article.)

      Delete
    2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJzOg_qcAj4
      Dilyana Gaytandzhieva being interviewed about being fired dtd 26Aug2017 (english)

      Delete
    3. *sigh*, And this is pretty much confirming my fears I had about ex-commie Turkic nations. In this case Azerbaijan.

      Delete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=3718
    Azerbaijan allows Israel to use its air bases near Iran border'
    Foreign Policy quotes U.S. diplomats as saying “We’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it” • A series of quiet political and military understandings have won Israel access to these air bases, senior U.S. sources explain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just to give more insight,

      http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-signs-1-6-billion-arms-deal-with-azerbaijan-1.414916

      http://www.rubincenter.org/2017/06/the-role-of-azerbaijan-in-israels-alliance-of-periphery/

      Delete
  4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds_in_Azerbaijan
    According to the 1926 census, 73% of its population was Kurdish and 26% was Azeri. ... In Armenia, Muslim Kurds were often associated with Azeris due to cultural similarities; hence as many as 18,000 Kurds fled from Armenia to Azerbaijan and later to the Russian Caucasus in the late 1980s.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are leaving out a big chunk making it sound as if the whole of azerbaijan was that, its talking about 3 districts out of 10 which is now occupied by armenia as Nagorno-Karabakh.

      Delete
    2. Hello Kaz
      I left a link from wikipedia for whatever its worth. I'm learning as I read and link to the whole picture(s) of what Penny has reported on for years...the Kurdish and Israeli symbiosis. It is apparent and is being revealed more and more each day the truth about Israel 2.0...thank you also for your links. (ps...I'm not a favorite of wiki but nevertheless at least you and others can point out their obfuscations)

      Delete
    3. I think was just a honest mistake, but we have to be careful when presenting information. People will look for one minor mistake and try to bring down your line of argument. Even if the rest is true

      Delete

TROLLS &SPAM WILL BE DELETED WITHOUT HESITATION
KEEP IT RELEVANT. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS