Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Not "climate change" but the Pet Trade (Emerging Pathogens) Responsible for Amphibian Decline

‘Climate change’ is a less likely culprit, no matter the spin from place like Potsdam.
Whose very existence is dependent on selling the for profit agenda

 
One wonders how that toxic brew being promoted to carbonize the soil may negatively affect the amphibians and their insect sustenance.

You know the "bio char" mentioned in the earlier post?

Recharging soils with carbon could make farms more productive

"Biochar is a substance formed of biomass—such as wood and crop waste, sewage sludge and paper waste—that is heated to 400-800°C under limited oxygen conditions to make a charcoal-like product"

As they say Garbage In, Garbage Out.

PenStateNews

The researchers determined that, while climate change likely has been and will be a factor in the decline of some local populations such as in the Rocky Mountain West — where the effect of a warming climate seems to be more severe for amphibians — it is not responsible for the current declines that are occurring.
Climate change not responsible for current declines... What might be?
After analyzing many years of data for 81 North American amphibian species including more than 500,000 observations collected at more than 5,000 sites in 86 study areas by a broad coalition of herpetologists, it is clear a warming climate is not the primary driver in their disappearance, according to lead researcher David Miller, associate professor of wildlife population ecology in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences.
Warming Climate NOT primary driver in their disappearance
Spring Peeper- They sing/chirp
I like these :)
That conclusion, of course, has scientists pondering the culprits most responsible for amphibian decline. Erin Muths, a scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey and a co-lead on the project, believes that the cause of declines comes down to a suite of local factors.

"It depends on the location whether habitat loss, disease, contaminants, climate, or a combination of these local factors is the culprit," she said. "Amphibians are challenged by a range of stressors that may be unique to location but in combination are leading to wide-range declines."
To better understand the causes of declines, Miller and colleagues from the USGS have initiated new work studying emerging pathogens that affect amphibians. A major concern for amphibian populations are new and deadly pathogens, mostly spread around the planet by humans — likely propelled by the pet trade.
Likely propelled by the pet trade- think about that?
Grey Tree Frog
According to Evan Grant, with the USGS Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative, there are at least two new pathogens that researchers know of that are currently affecting North American amphibians.
"One is the chytrid fungus and the other is ranaviruses," he said. "We are trying to figure out how these affect populations of amphibians in the Northeast. We are still learning how infections are spread and why some species are more susceptible."
 This past summer, for example, Miller's research group at Penn State watched the die-off of salamander larvae and tadpoles in the ponds they monitor in a Centre County, Pennsylvania, site called the Scotia Barrens. Preliminarily, Miller believes ranavirus caused the mortality event.

"Once these diseases make it to North America then the animals themselves can spread them around," he said. "But it really takes people to be involved in carrying the diseases from, say, Asia to the United States."

Recharging soils with carbon could make farms more productive

Hold on just a minute.....
I thought carbon was a deadly poison? And it has to be reduced in order to "save the planet"
Yes, I've actually seen it claimed that carbon dioxide is a deadly poison doing things like- killing our brains- as opposed to the basis of all life on our carbon based life form planet.

Considering the mind numbingly dumb main stream narrative.. imagine my shock to read this article:  

Recharging soils with carbon could make farms more productive

Carbon is great for the soil. That's obvious. Despite the usual rhetoric. 
However, this article is clearly a new product promotion for the petrochemical bio tech industry.

Turning crop waste and discarded paper into a material called biochar could help to capture carbon from the atmosphere and store it in the soil while also helping to enrich farmland.
Agriculture has historically been a circular industry where crops use nutrients in the to grow which are then replaced through compost or manure.
- Yes, agriculture has historically been a circular, self sustaining type of production.
But globalisation and industrialisation of the has disrupted this cycle, driving farming practices that have helped degrade a third of the planet's land.
 -Until the industrialization of the food supply destroyed the normal, tried and true practice of growing healthy food.

Scientists are now looking at ways of tackling this problem with an approach that will not only restore nutrients to the soil but also help to offset the greenhouse gas emissions produced by agriculture.
"Farm land could work as sinks," said Dr. Jan Mumme, an agricultural engineer at the University of Edinburgh in the UK. "This probably wouldn't work with intensive livestock farming, but sustainable crop production and integrated farm systems (a balance between crops and livestock) could do it—and biochar is one way to help."

-Biochar: a product undoubtedly created by the giant petrochemical companies to accompany their round up ready crops and chemical fertilizers..

"Biochar is a substance formed of biomass—such as wood and crop waste, sewage sludge and paper waste—that is heated to 400-800°C under limited oxygen conditions to make a charcoal-like product. This can be then added to soil, where it not only stores carbon, but also interacts with microbes in the soils to improve their ability to capture additional nutrients and
Until now, however, biochar has received mixed results when tested for its effects on soils and crop yields"
Etc., This biochar is most likely a total fail to actually enrich soil. Soil being a complex living organism- 

Yes, soil is alive:



One practice that was employed more broadly and still is today on smaller farm operations is growing cover crops. We see that around this locale still. 

To grow a cover crop means the land has to rest a while- Then the cover crop is tilled into the soil and all the nutrients including carbon and nitrogen feed the soil.  Along with the compostable materials which feed all the worms who then poop into the soil... Feeding all the microbes and good things that give life to soil

Pretty sure bio char was created to avoid the practice of allowing the land to heal.  Alongside the fact it's full of sewage sludge and other toxic waste- it won't feed the soil anything but toxicity- despite the presence of carbon, which the plants do need to grow. 

And  carbon is not a 'deadly poison' damaging our brains- Unless one is referencing carbon monoxide- But that's not what AGW and the whole green house gas/pollution/poison is about.

PS: One a smaller scale we do employ this circular practice in our home garden- saving veggie peelings, coffee grounds, egg shells etc., for the composter and we then till it into our soil- yes with a roto tiller. We add additional composted manure. And there are a ton of worms in the garden soil. After we turn the garden over, the birds, who are already waiting on the fence for us to walk away... fly down and start feasting on the worms. It's a whole circle of life thing.


Related- Keeling Curve covered: Hysteria reigns as "CO2 levels cross 410 ppm " First Time In Human History

Monday, September 24, 2018

Payback is a Bitch? Russia to Provide Syria S-300's in 2 Weeks

UPDATE # 1 -

RT
Moscow’s decision to supply an S-300 air-defense system to the Syrian military is “adequate in the current situation and is, in the first place, aimed at preventing any potential threat to the lives of Russian servicemen” in the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by telephone.

  I’d mentioned in yesterday’s post that Russia was quite possibly exacting retribution for Israel’s intentional endangerment of their plane, which resulted in the deaths of 15 service persons, while insulting their intelligence with their lie filled presentation of innocence by publicly outing the presence of IDF soldiers, on Syrian territory, which was unsurprisingly held by ISIS.
 UPDATE #1: Russia outed the presence of IDF soldiers in Syria- As they (Russia) retrieved remains of IDF soldiers--- not one person who reads here will be shocked or surprised that  that Israeli military fully participated alongside their Kurdish and coalition allies in destroying Syria.
 Israel tried to "spin" this away.... As mentioned in Update #2  (yesterday's post)  with some absurd perception managing story......
 Another item of interest that I'd saved yesterday was  an article full of Israeli hand wringing that Russia was going to "change the rules of the game in Syria" 

“As senior officials think,” he wrote at the Hebrew news website Walla, “Putin’s tragic event has become a ripe fruit and he will leverage it to impose new rules of the game, such as … much earlier warning systems, restrictions on traffic routes that will reduce the IDF’s freedom of action on the sea and in the air,” and to gain concessions from Israel and the US.

As my post headline stated "payback is a bitch".  Looks to me as if a bit more payback is being readied for Israel. Today it's been announced that the S-300 air defense missile system will be supplied to Syria within two weeks


"Within two weeks, the Syrian army will get from Russia S-300 air-defense missiles to strengthen its combat capabilities following the downing of a Russian Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft in Syria, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Monday.

"A modern S-300 air defense missile system will be supplied to the Syrian Armed Forces within two weeks. It is capable of intercepting air assault weapons at a distance of more than 250 kilometers and hit simultaneously several air targets," the minister said.

Shoigu said S-300 missiles will strongly strengthen combat capabilities of the Syrian air defense due to their jamming invulnerability and firing speed.
I would suspect this jamming invulnerability is important. Recalling the Russian presentation yesterday it was mentioned that the IDF employed electronic interference.

"I will underscore - at the request of the Israeli side, in 2013 we suspended the delivery of S-300 systems that were ready for the dispatch, while the Syrian military had undergone training. Now the situation has changed, and we are not to blame," the defense minister said.

Command posts of the Syrian air defense will also be equipped with Russian automated systems, which guarantee the identification of Russian aircraft, the defense chief stated.

"The command posts of Syrian air defense forces and units will be equipped with automated control systems only supplied to the Russian armed forces. This will facilitate centralized control over all forces and resources of the Syrian air defense, monitor the situation in the air, and ensure operative issuance of orders. Most importantly, we will guarantee the identification of all Russian aircrafts by the Syrian air defense systems," Shoigu said.

A Russian electronic surveillance Il-20 plane was downed over the Mediterranean Sea late on September 17 when it was flying back to the Russian airbase at Syria’s Hmeymim. According to the Russian defense ministry, the plane was shot down by a missile from a Syrian S-200 air defense complex when it was firing at four Israeli F-16 aircraft attacking targets in the Latakia governorate. The Israeli pilots actually used the Russian aircraft as a cover, exposing it to Syrian missiles, the ministry stressed"


Sunday, September 23, 2018

Russian MOD: IL-20 Shootdown Fault Belongs to Israel

 UPDATE #1: Russia outed the presence of IDF soldiers in Syria- As they (Russia) retrieved remains of IDF soldiers--- not one person who reads here will be shocked or surprised that Israeli military fully participated alongside their Kurdish and coalition allies in destroying Syria..This acknowledgement is in the video below as well as reported on here


Russia’s defense ministry claimed on Sunday that its forces had conducted a search in cooperation with the Israeli military to locate the bodies of fallen IDF soldiers in Syria’s Islamic State-held territory.
Neither the timing or location of the operation was provided in the ministry statement.
UPDATE # 2: It seems entirely plausible that Russia is exacting a bit of retribution against Israel by disclosing publicly Israeli involvement directly in the Syrian state.
Israel is in damage control... 

Times of Israel- 

The remains were from 1982 and not from any present day operations...
Tzvi Feldman, Yehuda Katz and Zachary Baumel have been missing in action since the 1982 first Lebanon War. As a rule, the Israeli military continues searching for the remains of all IDF soldiers even decades after they go missing.
The graves were said to be located in the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk, over which Syrian troops regained control earlier this year from the IS terror group after a month-long battle.
I flat out don't believe Israel's spin in this regard- It seems quite obvious to me, since they had their terror thugs in Yarmouk they could have easily, long ago, retrieved these remains.. 
Their cover story falls flat.


The 15 minute presentation is below:

  Quotes from Sputnik:

 "During the negotiations via the deconfliction channel, the representative of the Israeli Air Force Command reported that the targets assigned to the Israeli aircraft are located in Northern Syria … As you can see on the map, the Israeli jets delivered strikes in Latakia which is a western province of the country — and not in the north of the Syrian Arab Republic. The city of Latakia is located on the western coast. The misleading information provided by the Israeli officer about the area of strikes did not allow the Russian Il-20 airplane to move timely to a safe area," Konashenkov said."
"Israel did not inform the Russian force about its operation in advance — but rather they issued a warning simultaneously with the beginning of the strikes, which constitutes a breach of the agreements. These actions constitute a clear violation of the 2015 Russian-Israeli agreements, which are aimed at preventing clashes between our armed forces, in and over Syria, that were reached by the joint working group," Konashenkov said."
"The presented objective data testifies that the actions of the Israeli fighter pilots, which led to the loss of life of 15 Russian servicemen, either lacked professionalism or were an act of criminal negligence to say the least. Therefore, we believe that the blame for the tragedy with the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft lies entirely with the Israeli air forces and those who made the decision to carry out such actions," Konashenkov stressed."
"Thus, the Israeli jets created a direct threat to any passenger or transport aircraft that could have been there at that time and could have become victims of the adventurism of the Israeli military," Konashenkov added.

Retaliation? No more 'Mr Nice Guy"

 "Russia's retaliatory measures with regard to the Il-20 downing will be directed primarily at stepping up the security of Russian military officers in Syria and our military facilities in the Syrian Arab Republic. These will be the steps everyone will notice," he stressed.
 Should we take that statement as Israel being put on notice? If our military officers are threatened ... it will be dealt with?

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Russia’s Defense Ministry to Publish Detailed Report On IL-20 Downing

The minute-by-minute timeline of the tragedy will be given with a presentation of objective data from the radars’ data handling system about the air situation.

Might this be a rebuttal to Israel's claim?
 MOSCOW, September 22. /TASS/. Russia’s Defense Ministry will publish on Sunday detailed information on circumstances behind the downing of the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 military plane off Syria on September 17, the ministry told reporters on Saturday.

"The minute-by-minute timeline of the tragedy will be given with a presentation of objective data from the radars’ data handling system about the air situation in Syria on September 17 and actions of Israel’s air force in the area of the crash," the ministry said.

On September 17 night, a Russian Ilyushin 20 (IL-20) military surveillance turboprop plane was shot down over the Mediterranean at a distance of 35 kilometers off the Syrian coast, when it was returning to the Russian air base Hmeymim. 
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the aircraft was brought down by a Syrian S-200 surface-to-air missile system when the Syrian air defense opened fire at four Israeli F-16 fighter jets in response to their strikes on facilities in Syria’s Latakia province. 
The defense ministry pointed out that Israel’s F-16 fighter jets used the Russian IL-20 as cover and put it in the line of fire. The tragedy claimed the lives of 15 Russian military personnel.
Going back to the idea of the attack on Latakia being retribution for the Idlib deal
Another analyst considered the possibility without explaining why it is Israel would feel  the need to deliver vengeance on Syria and Russia

Sputnik article via translate:
the original url is available via the translate link
"As he emphasized, "at this stage, it is necessary to condemn completely the actions of all participants in this operation. The Syrian air defense system made a mistake, was provoked by Israeli military aircraft. "
The expert ruled out the possibility of deteriorating military cooperation between Damascus and Moscow. "Both sides know that Israeli aggression was the answer to the conclusion of the Sochi agreement between Moscow and Ankara in the Idlib case," he added."
the expert has a name- check the link for it

As stated he doesn't mention why it is Israel would want to exact revenge.
I have, do and will again. Regional remake for Israel's benefit. What version will succeed is an unknown- But this is, in my opinion, what the Usreal tag team is up to. France as well.

Blood Borders: A Proposal To Redraw A “New Middle East”

 My personal thinking is the Usrael tag team is going for a Kurdistan that covers the area of Assad's 4 seas strategy. Covered in numerous posts, previously:
In a map that looks like this:


 In this version Greater Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 has access to all the vital/important/beneficial water ways. The Black Sea. Caspian. Mediterranean. Persian Gulf. Ally to Israel. With the ability to reach well into Asia, Europe and the Russian borders.. 

From yesterday:


Friday, September 21, 2018

Lavrov:Russia-Turkey deal on Idlib no threat to Syria’s territorial integrity

Continuing on with the coverage of the Idlib situation because it is pivotal to the Usrael remake agenda.

 TASS

He said "the main threat to Syria’s territorial integrity comes from the eastern bank of the Euphrates, where independent and autonomous entities are being created under US control."
"We will insist this unlawful activity should be brought to an end. We have been saying so again and again to the Americans and in the UN Security Council," Lavrov said.
 

The deal between Russia and Turkey on a demilitarized zone in Syria’s Idlib is an interim step, Lavrov said.

"This deal is aimed at eradicating a terrorist threat. No doubt, this is an interim step, as just a demilitarized zone is created," Lavrov stressed.

"But this is a necessary step as the creation of this zone will make it possible to prevent the continuing cases of shelling from the de-escalation zone in Syria’s Idlib Governorate on the positions of Syria’s governmental forces and Russia’s Hmeymim base," he noted.

 From earlier today:

Israel Pleads “Not Guilty”: Syria & Russia at Fault- Russia Rejects Israeli Claims


Israel Pleads “Not Guilty”: Syria & Russia at Fault- Russia Rejects Israeli Claims

Syria Fired Missiles for 40 Minutes After Israeli Airstrike Hitting IL-20

I find the idea of Syria continuing to fire for 40 minutes after Israel’s attack a stretch..
(Just don’t think they’d waste the munitions in that manner.)


TASS
The Israeli report into the downing a Russian plane off the coast of Syria during an Israeli airstrike on Monday runs some 40 pages in English and Russian and shows that Syrian anti-aircraft batteries fired dozens of barrages indiscriminately for 40 minutes after the initial Israeli attack.

In a highly unusual move, the IDF acknowledged the airstrike and released some of the findings of its initial investigation, which concluded that Syrian air defense units fired without aiming and “did not bother to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air.”

The IDF’s initial findings were presented in recent days by top Israeli officials, including the head of its air force, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, to their Russian counterparts in Moscow, and both Israel and Russia said Syria, not Israel, was responsible for the downing of the plane, although Moscow has been publicly critical of Israel over the incident.
According to the Israeli report, initially publicized by the Ynet news site, the “deconfliction mechanism,” a coordination system between the IDF and Russian forces meant to prevent friendly fire incidents over Syria, followed the usual procedure before the strike, as it had done in more than 200 attacks over the past two years.
This contradicts earlier reporting regarding the deconfliction protocols not being used appropriately.

The report says Syria’s military then activated several anti-aircraft batteries deployed throughout the country, firing for over half an hour, long after the Israeli planes had returned to their base. The Syrians fired dozens of missiles of various types, including the SA-5, a large, advanced missile which downed an Israeli plane over the Galilee in February, Ynet reported.

The Israeli delegation pointed out to their Russian counterparts that the fundamental issue — one likely to repeat itself — is the change in Syrian behavior since it hit an Israeli F-16 fighter in February.
 A change in behaviour was mentioned in this previous post:

That change had nothing to do with quantities of Syrian missiles being deployed. It had to do with the distance they were firing out to. So the Israeli version doesn’t sync, with the reporting from Janes
“a Facebook post written by the SAA just prior warned that it could and would engage airborne threats out to “at least 100+ km”

Until then, the Syrian batteries would fire a few isolated missiles at the Israeli planes. Sometimes they only operated one battery, assuming that their missiles would do little against the Israeli air force.

However, after hitting the Israeli plane in February, which was the first time that an Israeli fighter jet was downed by enemy fire since the 1982 Lebanon war, the Syrians became more energetic in their efforts, and deployed for the purpose new and advanced missile batteries from Russia.

“According to the IDF report, errors in coordination between those two countries led to the downing of the Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft and the killing of its 15 crew members.”

Russia and Syria’s fault.

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Israel to “improve coordination” with Moscow After Plane Shootdown Incident

From earlier today: Idlib Agreement A Victory for Syria As Trade Routes Reopen

Following up on:
Reuters
“Israel said on Thursday it would not halt strikes on Syria but would do more to “deconflict” them with Russian forces, after Moscow accused it of “irresponsible and unfriendly actions” that led to Syrian ground fire mistakenly downing a Russian plane.

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin initially described the downing as “tragic chance”, Moscow has made its anger clear.

“Moscow views as irresponsible and unfriendly actions of Israeli Air Force, which exposed Russian Il-20 aircraft to danger and led to death of 15 servicemen,” the Russian embassy in Tel Aviv said on Twitter in English, adding that Russia would “take all necessary measures to eliminate threat to life and security of our military fighting against terrorism”.
Israel dispatched its air force chief to brief Moscow about the incident on Thursday. Expressing regret at the loss of life, Israel denied wrongdoing and blamed what it called wanton Syrian anti-aircraft fire after its jets had withdrawn back over the border”

Wanton Syrian anti aircraft fire after Israel’s jets had withdrawn over the border?
What a claim! Let’s break it down.

-Israel should not be attacking Syria.  Since Israel is attacking Syria it’s obvious that Syria should and would protect itself. So “wanton anti aircraft fire” is a rather self serving claim, ( big surprise) on Israel’s part.
-Withdrawn over the border?  What border is Israel referring to? Lebanon’s border? Notice the statement doesn’t mention the jets withdrew back across the Israeli border. We need some clarity on that!

-Syria's fault?  Implied in the statement is the fault for this incident lying with Syria due to the great distance “across the border” they were wantonly using their anti aircraft fire. Again Israel should not be launching airstrikes on Syria for the multiple hundreds of times they have!

Here’s where we might be getting back to the exploitation of information found immediaely preceding the attack. Information regarding the distance Syrian anti aircraft fire was willing to engage.

Mentioned in this post
“Naftali Bennett, another member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet, said “deconfliction mechanisms” would be improved, referring to a Russian-Israeli hotline designed to avoid inadvertent clashes with forces Moscow sent to Syria as part of a military intervention mounted in 2015.

“We will of course strengthen these mechanisms. We will do everything so as not to harm anyone we do not intend to, God forbid,” Bennett told Army Radio in a separate interview. “

Deconfliction mechanisms were already in place. And had been since 2015- One way to improve them would be for Israel to use them in a timely fashion.  As mentioned in previous post (2) 
Since this mechanism has been available to them for the past 3 years. 

One last item of interest: Regarding the question of recognizing friends or foes?

RT 

It seems the answer to this question  (2)"There is a question of why the Syrian system didn't recognize the Russian plane as a friendly? Is answered below:
The Russian Defense Ministry has described as “amateur fantasies” claims that the Il-20 military plane was hit in Syria due to a failure in the friend-foe identification system. Each state has its own Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system and Russia does not install its identification systems on armaments exported abroad, the ministry’s spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Thursday.
There were no precedents where it had transferred IFF systems with Russian identification codes to other states. “All this fully applies to the domestic air defense systems delivered to the Syrian Arab Republic,” he said. “The IFF system of state recognition used by Russia is only used by aircraft and air defense systems identified as Russian.”

Idlib Agreement A Victory for Syria As Trade Routes Reopen

Idlib agreement a victory for Assad regime as trade routes to reopen
 
Definitely one plus in the Idlib agreement!
"Details of the agreement between Turkey and Russia on a demilitarised zone in the rebel-held northwestern province of Idlib, seen by The National, reveal a substantial victory for Damascus, even though it stalled a planned ground offensive there.

The announcement of the deal had at first appeared to deal a major blow to the Syrian government’s designs on the province. After weeks of building up forces around the edges and promising an attack, the Syrian army’s operation was nixed.

But the deal hammered out between Ankara and Moscow stipulates that two strategic highways running through the province be reopened to traffic by the end of the year, achieving a major aim of the planned government offensive without a shot being fired.

The M4 and M5 highways run from Latakia to Saraqib, and from Syria’s southern tip to the border with Turkey in the north – both have been cut off in Idlib since 2014.
Before the war, the M5 highway was a major trade route that connected the commercial hub of Aleppo to Damascus and on to the Jordanian border. The recapture of the two highways was seen as a likely first phase to a wider government assault on Idlib."


I’ve discussed the importance of opening the M-5 as well as the M-4 highways on more then a couple of occasions here at the blog- Which may be one reason why the Idlib deal came as far less of a surprise to me then most others:

"Leaks from the Astana talks, between guarantor nations in Syria (Russia, Turkey and Iran), show that questions surround how the roads would be secured and the extent of economic interest for the conflicting parties"
 "Reopening them would help resume trade between neighbouring Turkey and regime-held areas. The agreement says these steps are a way “to ensuring free movement of local residents and goods and restoring trade and economic relations”.
“Idlib is strategically relevant less as Idlib itself than as a crossroads between other more politically and economically significant provinces and as a gateway to Turkey,” said Sam Heller, a senior analyst at Crisis Group.

“For Damascus, reopening these roads is relevant economically as it attempts to reintegrate Syria economically and position itself for postwar reconstruction, and it has symbolic political value as another step towards a unified, state-controlled Syria,” he added.

You can see the full text of the Idlib document here

Or here


The re opening of the highways is written into the 10 point document. Check the 8th point out.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Israeli Military Delegation Heading to Moscow to Present Il-20 Findings

IDF Delegation Heads to Moscow
"A delegation of senior Israeli security officials is scheduled to fly to Russia early Thursday morning, in an attempt to resolve an ongoing dispute with the Kremlin regarding the downing of a Russian reconnaissance plane over Syria earlier this week.

Early Tuesday morning, an Ilyushin IL-20 turboprop reconnaissance was shot down, following an Israeli Air Force strike on a weapons development center in northern Syria.
According to an Israeli inquiry into the incident, the IL-20 was downed by one of the many surface-to-air missiles fired by the Syrian air defense network following the IAF strikes.

On Thursday, senior IDF officials, led by the Commander of the IAF, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, will fly to Moscow in a bid to convince Russian security officials that Syrian surface-to-air missiles fired after the IAF jets had left the combat zone were responsible for the downing of the IL-20.

IAF commander and other IDF officials are expected to present the full IDF file on the incident, including the pre-mission information and the findings of the IDF inquiry regarding the event.

Along with the IAF commander, the delegation will include the chief of the International Cooperation Unit, Brig. Gen. Erez Maisel, as well as additional officers of the Intelligence Directorate, the IAF and the Operations Directorate.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that he backed the Russian Defense Ministry statement accusing Israel of downing the reconnaissance plane, but added that the incident appeared to be an accident.

Putin later spoke with Israeli premier Binyamin Netanyahu, who expressed “regret” over the downing of the IL-20 and the loss of all 15 crew members.

According to a statement by the Kremlin following the call, despite Israel’s denials, Putin called on Netanyahu to prevent similar incidents from occurring in the future."

  If it is the case, as Israeli news is reporting, that Putin called Netanyahu in order to prevent similar incidents from occurring in the future then it’s certainly being implied that Russia finds Israel culpable.
A picture from the official Syrian Arab News Agency reportedly shows Syrian air defence batteries responding to Israeli missiles in Damscus on September 15, 2018

Daily Mail
"Israel's air force commander will lead a delegation to Moscow to share the military's findings on the Syrian downing of a Russian warplane following Israeli air strikes, the army said Wednesday.

The delegation, led by Major General Amikam Norkin, would on Thursday "present the situation report... regarding all aspects" of the incident, the army said in a statement"

RT
“The group is led by the commander of Israeli air force, Major General Amikam Norkin, who will give Russians a “situation report” on the recent downing of a Russian Il-20 plane in Syria”

From earlier:

Did the Idlib Deal Result in Retribution Delivered by Israel and France?

Did the Idlib Deal Result in Retribution Delivered by Israel and France?

It's a question that needs asking. The timing is certainly suspect. But timing isn't everything.
It can be part of the whole picture. Might there be other aspects worth considering when thinking of the attack on the Russian plane as a message delivered via missile?

 Image and caption from Janes



An Il-20 with 15 personnel onboard was the unintended victim of Syrian air defence units that shot the aircraft down during an Israeli raid on 17 September.
 The Plane and it's crew gone-
"The four-engined turboprop with 15 personnel onboard disappeared over the Mediterranean Sea at the same time as the Israeli Air Force (IAF) was conducting air strikes against Syrian government targets in the coastal province of Latakia"

1- Israel failed to notify Russia in a timely fashion in advance of their attack per their deconfliction agreement. Why did they fail in their duties? 

Link
Moscow Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Tuesday there was no warning even though Israel's aviation control must have noticed the Russian aircraft as it was landing.
"Israel did not warn the command of the Russian troops in Syria about the planned operation," Konashenkov said. "We received a notification via a hotline less than a minute before the strike, which did not allow the Russian aircraft to be directed to a safe zone."

2- Were the Israelis' able to exploit publicly available knowledge to their advantage?
JANES “a Facebook post written by the SAA just prior warned that it could and would engage airborne threats out to “at least 100+ km”. That this post was written the day before the loss of the Il-20 suggested that the SAA’s air defence units were on a heightened state of alert, even by Syrian standards, increasing the chances of a mistake such as this.”
 Here's where I need some militarily minded person to assist. If Israel knew that Syrian air defences were engaging airborne threats out to at least a distance of 100+km, would this knowledge have given them the ability to use the Il-20 as a sitting duck?  Allowing them the opportunity to maneuver out of the way before being hit. Leaving the Il-20 as the unknowing target?


JANES “By using the Russian plane as a cover, the Israeli pilots made it vulnerable to Syrian air defence fire. As a result, the Il-20, its reflective surface being far greater than that of [the IAF] F-16s, was downed by a missile launched with the S-200 system,” Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) spokesman Igor Konashenkov was quoted by TASS as saying. The MoD noted that, while it had been given prior warning of the IAF attack, it came too late to have the Il-20 divert to a safe area"

There is a question of why the Syrian system didn't recognize the Russian plane as a friendly?
 I don't know how relevant that really is? If Syrian air defenses locked on the Israeli F-16 and it maneuvered out of the way.... leaving the Russian plane as the sitting target- Is that a question worth wasting time on? I'm really not sure that it is?

3- Impeding plans?

I do not think it is a coincidence that almost immediately after the Idlib deal is announced by Erdogan and Putin, Israel and France began attacking Syria. I had expected that the Idlib deal and all that it impedes would have garnered a response from those that have "other ideas".
 
 No. I’m not talking about Turkey and these imagined ‘dreams’ of a new or revamped Ottoman Empire. Which is a complete and total  red herring employed to obfuscate for US/Israeli expansionism  and border remake  done under the guise of Kurdistan creation.

Long story short a 'red herring' is a deliberate diversion of attention. 

I've read a ton of spin from 5 eyes alt and msm regarding this idea of "ottoman dreams" But not much REAL evidence to support it.  

What I'm referring to, as others divert your eyes/mind away, are plans that have been carried out since 2011, to destroy Syria and carve a big chunk of her territory away for that Israel 2.0 that’s been written about here for years now. And there is reams and reams of evidence to support this plan. I must have at least one hundred posts on the topic

2015- Kurdistan aka “Second Israel”- Ethnic Cleansing the Indigenous of the Middle East 
With regard to the possible stance of a Kurdish state toward Israel one may safely assume that it will be friendly to the Jewish state. For one thing, the Kurds will need the sympathy and support of another non-Arab state in the international arena. For another, the Kurds have never been in conflict with Israel 
The Map below has been around since 2006-

Blood Borders: A Proposal To Redraw A “New Middle East”


Why this Idlib Deal was such a shocker is beyond me

I’d written beginning in August of this year that Idlib had to be handled with care.

August 09/18: How Russia, Turkey, and Iran are Going to Avoid a Battle for Idlib

Yours truly “If Syria were to simply rush in and battle for Idlib as some persons suggest, the US and their PKK allies would take advantage of the chaos that would surely result. And Rojova will extend ever closer to the Mediterranean. Which is what the US and Israel both want!

It's really much more beneficial for regional stability that the Astana partners work together to deal with the Idlib situation in a more measured, careful manner.  That's my opinion. And to my mind it makes much more sense for the actual preservation of Syrian sovereignty.”

-This deal between Turkey Russia was, to my thinking, better for the preservation of Syrian sovereignty long run. If all goes well.

-This deal also blocked the US from attacking Syria as they took back Syrian territory.

-This deal also prevented the US from pulling off their chemical weapon psyop.

 Iran approves of the deal-
By facilitating the political settlement of Syria’s issues and considering all humanitarian aspects, the agreement can help the process to restore peace to Syria and end the life of terrorist groups in the country,” he said.

“Stopping violence and bloodshed while eliminating terrorism in the area is one the most basic and principled positions in Iran’s foreign policy,” he said.
Syria Accepts the Deal: From SANA

Damascus, SANA – Syria has welcomed the agreement on Idleb Province announced yesterday in the Russian city of Sochi, stressing that it was an outcome of intensive consultations between it and the Russian Federation with complete coordination between the two countries.
RT
Syria welcomes the agreement on Idlib province between Russia and Turkey, the Foreign Ministry in Damascus said on Tuesday. The agreement was a result of intensive talks and full coordination between Damascus and Moscow, SANA reported, citing the ministry’s officials. They said the Idlib deal, which has “specific limited dates,” is part of the previous agreements on the de-escalation zones, achieved during the Astana-format talks in 2017. They are based on the commitment of parties to preserve Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to free Syria from terrorists and any military or foreign illegal presence, the ministry added.


Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Idlib Agreement: A few more details

Tampa Bay
In the entertainment section?
Entertainment

The Latest: Details released of agreement on Syria's Idlib

MOSCOW (AP) — The Latest on the disappearance of a Russian military aircraft over the Mediterranean and other issues related to Syria (all times local):
11:45 a.m.
A pro-government Syrian newspaper says the agreement reached between Russia and Turkey over the northwestern rebel-held Syrian province of Idlib envisions three stages in returning Damascus government institutions to the area.
The daily Al-Watan reported on Tuesday that the agreement struck in Sochi the day before also calls for the establishing of a demilitarized zone along all the front line in Idlib by Oct. 15.
The rebels are to hand over their heavy weapons under the supervision of Russia and Turkey by Nov. 10.
The paper says the third phase will see government institutions return to the rebel-held region after militants withdraw from residential areas.
The agreement between the leaders of Russia and Turkey on Monday is thought to have averted an all-out offensive by government forces to retake the last remaining rebel stronghold in Idlib.
Additional Reading at Fars

Monday, September 17, 2018

No Idlib Offensive- Russia & Turkey Agree Joint Patrols & Demilitarized Zone

 UPDATED HERE WITH INFO I'D SEEN PRIOR TO THIS NEWS BREAKING:

Putin talking to Erdogan ahead of his meeting: 
"Our relations are developing dynamically and positively. It can be said about our trade and economic ties, which are growing rapidly. It can be said about our security cooperation, especially within the region, on the international arena in a broad sense of the word," he said. "There are a lot of problems, some of them being very difficult. I am glad to see you not only to exchange views on the entire range of problems but also to try to find solutions where there are none as of yet."
 Putin clearly stating that on several fronts Turkey and Russian relations were growing dynamically and positively. On some fronts they had problems that they were trying to work out.

This story has since been updated and the statement below is gone now- No matter I'd saved the quote :

 Find it in the comments section here: PennySeptember 17, 2018 at 9:39 AM
“The statement which we will make after the meeting in Sochi will contain new hope for the region,” Erdogan said through an interpreter. He gave no indication of what would be in the statement. 
 Which I found interesting and indicative that a deal had previously been worked out between the Astana partners. Pay attention to that fact that Erdogan is talking about a solution for the region.

Earliest reporting that I've seen so far:

Russia and Turkey will create a buffer zone of 15-20 kilometres wide between rebels and Syrian government forces by 15 of October

Erdogan & Putin in Sochi September 17/18


 Recall my reporting of this possibility in this previous post?

In yesterday's post I'd entertained the idea that there was a deal in place:

"Russia said on Monday that there will be no new military operation against Syria's Idlib by the Syrian government forces and their allies after president Vladimir Putin met with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The two leaders, who back opposing sides in Syria’s seven-year war, came together in an ad hoc meeting in the Russian resort city of Sochi as tensions over the fate of rebel-held Idlib province ratchet up.
They have signed a memorandum on the stabilisation of Syria's Idlib city to prevent an offensive by the Syrian government forces that would lead to scores of casualties of civilians.
The Syrian government, backed by Russian air power, appeared recently to be poised to stage an assault on the last major opposition bastion, which is also home to thousands of hardline militants.
Putin said that they agreed with Turkey to create a demilitarised zone of 15-20 kilometres wide between rebels and Syrian government forces by 15 of October.
Russian and Turkish forces will patrol the demilitarised zone.
Radical rebel groups, including Al-Nusra Front, will withdraw from the zone, and heavy weapons held by Syrian rebels in Idlib city should be handed over by October 10.
This approach, Putin said, is supported by the Syrian government of Bashar Al-Assad.
Translation: Our wish in Turkey and Russia is to solve the Syrian crisis according to the UN Security Council resolution 2254. We will keep our cooperation to achieve this goal.

Turkey's president Erdogan said that his country will carry out coordinated patrols in the demilitarised zone in Idlib with the Russians. 
He said that the biggest threat to Turkey is the Kurdish movement of People's Protection Units (YPG) rather than Idlib. Turkey considers the YPG as a terrorist organisation.

Yielding results

Erdogan and Putin met 10 days ago in Tehran alongside Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, where the Turkish leader publicly called for a ceasefire.
The situation in Idlib has been calm for three days. It looks like we obtained a result with the efforts which were made
- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Turkish daily Hurriyet on Monday quoted Erdogan as saying he believed his words in the Iranian capital had had a positive effect.
"The situation in Idlib has been calm for three days. It looks like we obtained a result with the efforts which were made," the newspaper quoted the president as telling reporters on a flight back from Azerbaijan at the weekend. "But we are still not satisfied.”
 "Let's all take steps, measures together against the terror groups among the opposition in Idlib," Erdogan said according to Hurriyet. "But let's not create an excuse and take a step like bombing there."

Sunday, September 16, 2018

“Syria’s rebel Idlib prepares for a losing battle”: Idlib Deal Ahead of Operation?

⟱ Important Update below

Interesting news article at PBS- Syria's Rebel Idlib Prepares for  A Losing Battle

I’m opting to leave out the spin and that which is rubbish in my opinion and go for as factual an accounting as can be extracted from the 5 eyes media.
“A wide offensive is only likely after a green light from Russia. But delicate diplomatic moves are at work. Moscow is keen on strengthening ties with Turkey, at a time when Ankara’s relations are at their lowest with the United States. Turkey, by calling on the United States and Europe for support, seems to be playing on that interest to pressure Russia to accept its proposals for a solution on Idlib that avoids an attack.”
On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets for the second time in 10 days with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, this time in Sochi, Russia.
As reported the other day:
“After proving its influence in Syria and the Middle East, Russia wants to pull Turkey away from the West much more than achieve a military victory over the armed Syrian opposition,” Mustafa Ellabbad, an expert on Turkish-Arab relations, wrote in Kuwait’s al-Qabas newspaper.
I think Russia wants a "victory" however that's defined and yes, also good relations with Turkey. - Why not, they share the same 'hood.

The province, the size of Lebanon, has been the beating heart of the rebellion for years. In rebel hands since 2015, it is the largest contiguous territory they controlled.

Russia and Syria moved fighters and others aplenty to Idlib
The Turkish reinforcements are  going to 12 observation points that Ankara set up around Idlib last year under a deal with Russia and Iran creating a “de-escalation zone.”

I’ve mentioned all the outposts, Iranian and Russian, not just the 12 Turkish ones, in two separate posts- PBS claims that reinforcements are going to the observation posts- The outposts have been manned since last year.
The posts were discussed twice last month. Here and here.

Outposts, again.
If Syrian forces retake Idlib with no agreement on the fate of the opposition fighters, they could threaten the Turkey-controlled enclave, and Ankara would lose credibility with the fighters and leverage with Damascus on any future deal.

“There is really no way for the Syrian military and Damascus’ allies to launch a military offensive on Idlib that doesn’t have deeply negative, injurious effects on Turkey. There is no real way they can cushion this for Turkey,” said Sam Heller, a Syria expert in the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Is there no way that Russia and Syria can cushion this operation for Turkey? I think it's possible by undertaking a more controlled, measured operation in Idlib -  And have mentioned repeatedly the advantages to all parties in doing this. Save for the US and their proxies.

Turkey’s strategy in the opposition areas has been complicated by the presence of radical fighters. By backing the National Front, it argued it can draw fighters away from the al-Qaida-linked HTS, the dominant power in the province, forcing it to dissolve and creating a new opposition force ready to negotiate with the Syrian government.

The strategy has had limited success.
The National Front in recent months gained control of territory in Idlib from HTS, which still controls nearly 70 percent of the province. HTS began to show signs of splits and two weeks ago, Turkey declared it a terrorist group.
As reported here at the blog- probably two weeks ago or nearly so.

September 04/18: Turkey Green Lights Syria/Russian Idlib Op - Hayat Tarir Al Sham Designated A Terror Group

"But with the onset of a military offensive, HTS has set up joint operation rooms with different National Front factions.

The HTS spokesman in Idlib said now was not the time to talk about dissolving into Turkish-backed rebel groups. He underlined that an arrangement must eventually be made for the foreign fighters in the group"
Recall my mentioning that HTS was no friend to Turkey?- Hence the lack of cooperation.
Hence the inability for Turkey to get them to dissolve into the Turkish backed rebels- Since HTS is beholden to different masters (US/UK/Israel) Turkey was destined to fail in resolving this problem.


"Syrian forces and Iranian-backed militias are likely to avoid a clash with the Turkish troops"
 No advantage to fighting with them. And as my hubby just stated it's possible this was always the end gameAs in Turkey, Russia, Iran and Syria had an Idlib plan all ready to go.

That's why I love that guy :)
“Assad and Russia gave the choice to the international community: First we kill everybody. Second thing, (they said) if you want to protect (Idlib) then take those people you think are nice … It is cynical but puts the international community before its contradictions,” said Balanche.
Repeating:

Second thing, (they said) if you want to protect (Idlib) then take those people you think are nice … It is cynical but puts the international community before its contradictions,” said Balanche.

I like the idea of putting the international community before (in front of) it’s contradictions.
It’s very just. It’s in fact an ideal concept- Oh, you don’t want these “nice” people. ??

Oh, dear, the nice people as is claimed are not so nice. Perfect.

The international community gets it's just deserts

I've been talking this topic up at Nomadic Everyman 
Including the fact that no humanitarian corridors had been set up prior to the alleged start of Idlib operation that was supposed to have occurred over a week ago- Russia didn't blink. Turkey didn't impede it. No one did. The operation wasn't ready to go. 
Additionally:

Consider the fact that humanitarian corridors had not been established tells us there was no operation ready to go.
Considering humanitarian corridors precede the military operations- as a rule in Syria.

take care Scott!
Ziad at Syper has also reported today- September 16/2018
THE GREAT EXODUS:  Uighers, Uzbekis, Chechens, Daghestaanis and a few Albanians are heading north with their families to the Turk border to avoid what they know to be the inevitable push to exterminate them.  They are moving their families out of harm’s way.  The actual number is not known, but, the Turks are allowing them in as long as they leave the country permanently.
Another wave of emigration is also taking place, except, this one is heading south to the areas controlled by the SAA.  These are the actual citizens of Idlib who want nothing to do with the terrorists who are planning their own Masada in Idlib.  Some are successfully using the Russian humanitarian corridors to escape despite repeated threats of retaliation from the terrorist grubs.
Humanitarian corridors may now be in place as Lavrov said they would be:

September 14th post: Russia and Turkey working out humanitarian corridors
Russian foreign minister says talks are underway between Turkish and Russian officials on Syria’s Idlib
A humanitarian corridor will be created in Syria’s Idlib to prevent civilian casualties, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday.
🙋Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria might just have played this very smart
We'll know more tomorrow - Let's hope the US doesn't get any dangerous ideas?

 ⟹UPDATE Begins

Turkey and Russia agreed on the fate of Idlib..

Columnist Nedret Ersanel wrote to pro-government Yeni Şafak daily.

"The political pressure of the West couldn't spoil the Astana peace talks," Ersenal noted, "that's why all the discussion are held within the framework of the alliance." 
According to Ersanal, Russian airstrikes in Idlib do not serve a disagreement between Russia and Turkey; instead, airstrikes represent Russia's support for Turkey and "reminders of the tight schedule" to solve Idlib problem.

 Right after the diplomatic contacts between Germany-France-Turkey-Russia delegation on Friday, the Kremlin announced that there would be an Erdogan-Putin meeting on Sept. 17, only ten days after Tehran Summit!- is an evidence of proceeding to a different phase about Idlib.

"It seems that the 'design' and 'mechanisms' of what will be done in Idlib is arranged," Ersanel added"
It's looking as if what ever the Astana 3 have planned for this stage of settling up Idlib is arranged. This goes back to hubby's idea of a plan already in place for Idlib, which is why terrorists were moved there. All spin aside.
 

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Syria Thwarts New Batch of Israeli Missiles Heading for Damascus Airport

Breaking...

RT
Syrian Army air defenses have intercepted several “Israeli missiles” over Damascus International Airport, state news agency SANA reported, citing a military source.
“Our air defense systems thwarted an Israeli missile aggression,” the source said. A SANA reporter meanwhile reported sounds of explosions in the vicinity of the airport.
Sputnik 
Syrian air defenses downed several projectiles fired by Israel near Damascus airport on Saturday night, Syrian state media reported.
"Our air defences responded to an Israeli missile attack on Damascus international airport and shot down a number of hostile missiles," Syrian state news agency SANA cited a military source as saying, which gave no immediate report of casualties or

Several powerful explosions occurred in Damascus at 9:50 p.m. (6:50 GMT) on Saturday.

damage.
According to AFP, this month Israel acknowledged having carried out over 200 strikes inside Syria over the past 18 months, mainly against Iranian targets. Syrian state media last reported Israeli strikes on September 4, when it said its air defenses downed several missiles in the coastal province of Tartus and in central Hama.

SANA: Damascus International Airport............???




A military source said that the Syrian air defenses confronted an Israeli missile attack on Damascus International Airport, shooting down a number of enemy missiles.
Earlier, SANA’s correspondent reported that explosions were heard in the surroundings of Damascus International Airport.

On Youtube- which is really interesting because there were 'rumours' that youtube had removed all Syrian information from youtube- Apparently not?

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cHovv_6fh8