Monday, January 22, 2018

NATO Attempts a Face Save as UN Security Council Refrains From Condemning Turkey

Below are the article's I've read today:

 Daily Mail- This has a whole lot to do with the potential to shatter the NATO alliance.

As mentioned yesterday France was going to take this issue to the UN.

The UN Security Council discussed Turkey's intensifying offensive against Kurdish militias and the worsening humanitarian crisis in Syria on Monday but did not condemn or demand an end to the sensitive Turkish operation.

"It was of course part of the conversation," French Ambassador Francois Delattre said of Afrin after the closed-door talks at UN headquarters in New York.

"The call for restraint, I believe, was widely shared during the discussion," he added, saying that France was "attentive to the security of Turkey, its territories and its borders."
"It's vital to keep the unity of the allies in what remains the number one priority, which is the fight against terrorism and against Daesh in particular," Delattre stressed, using another term for the IS militant group.
Of course there were the usual comments regarding Syria’s leadership:
"The number one party responsible for the humanitarian tragedy in Syria is the Syrian regime," he added. "The number one tragedy happening before our eyes happens in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib."

"If things continue this way, Eastern Ghouta might be the new Aleppo in terms of humanitarian disaster," Delattre added.
Oped from Daily Sabah. Very lengthy just an excerpt below
“Turkey's goals in the Afrin operation are clear and limited. It is to clear its border from the control of terrorist elements that threaten its national security and territorial integrity. Turkey also aims to prevent the formation of a YPG controlled quasi-state that has access to the Mediterranean Sea. The emergence of such a hostile political entity or autonomous unit along its southern border may change the status quo against its interest and isolate Turkey from the rest of the Middle East. Prevention of another inundation of refugees to its borders is also another sensitive issue that is haunting decision makers in Ankara. Turkey also wants to play a more active and influential role in reshaping the political future of Syria in the diplomatic arena. 
Turkey's involvement in the Astana talks together with Russia and Iran was a significant step for the country to play a more constructive role in shaping the future of its neighbor Syria. Having a military presence in the field and limiting hostile elements militarily stood as the most effective way to boost Turkey's diplomatic position”
Since the YPG is armed and trained by the U.S., Turkey may directly and indirectly confront the U.S. in the field. This confrontation may lead to a broader strategic rift between the two NATO partners"
I've reported on, in a number of posts, the massive rift between the US and Turkey. Beginning long before the attempted coup took place!

"The Turkish Air Force attacked the Menagh Military Airbase in northwestern Syria, which the US used for supplying weapons to Kurdish armed forces, the Hurriyet newspaper reported citing military sources"
Turkey not eying Syrian territory?
Erdogan Speaks in Ankara January 22/2018
"Turkey’s president said on Monday that Turkey is not eyeing Syrian territories and that the ongoing operation in Afrin will end as soon as its objectives are met.

"Turkey has no design on the territories of another country. The operation in Afrin will end when its aims are fulfilled, like Operation Euphrates Shield," said Recep Tayyip Erdogan at an awards ceremony in the capital Ankara, referring to a successful cross-border operation that ended last March.

The president said the current Operation Olive Branch is not aimed at Kurds but instead targets terrorists in the region.

“It is very clear that we do not have any problem with our Kurdish citizens; it is also not a matter of a Kurdish corridor"
"The incident is a matter of destroying the terrorist corridor”
in Syria, he added.
 “The main purpose of this operation is to contribute to the safety of life and property of Syrian people as well as the territorial integrity of Syria, along with Turkey’s national security,” he said"
Erdogan get's some digs in!
“He also criticized the U.S. State Department urging Turkey to limit the operation’s scope and duration.

“Then I ask the U.S.: Did you have any specific time duration in Afghanistan, when will it end? You entered Iraq before we came to power [in 2003], has the time duration ended in Iraq, you are still there.”

Reuters: The Issue of Manbij-  immediately below the flashback
Flashback: August 16/16  US to Keep Manbij Promise? 3 Step Road Map: Assad Stays. Cooperating with Iran & More 
“The U.S. and the President Barack Obama personally promised that PYD members in the SDF would be withdrawn to the east of the Euphrates River. Now the U.S. must keep its promise, and we expect them to. We are maintaining our communications regarding this matter."

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu reminded U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday that he had personally made a promise to withdraw the Syrian PKK affiliate Democratic Union Party's (PYD) armed People's Protection Units (YPG) to the east of the Euphrates once the Manbij operation”
Of course the US did NOT keep this promise and they never intended to ,choosing instead to move troops into the area and bolster their Kurdish proxies.
“Any Turkish operation in Manbij is likely to be met with serious U.S. concerns, with a number of U.S. troops in and around the city. The troops were deployed in March to deter Turkish and U.S.-backed rebels from attacking each other and have also carried out training and advising missions in Manbij.”

The entire U.S. strategy rests on the Kurds. Even if Turkey doesn’t attack Manbij, the fall of Afrin will weaken the Kurds, and that will weaken the U.S. influence with the Kurds,Tol said. ”The only leverage the U.S. has (in Syria) is through the Kurds.
“If Manbij falls, Raqqa is going to be threatened and that is key for the U.S.,” Tol continued"
 The only leverage the US has in Syria is through the PKK/YPG Kurds.....

 Just a thought.... Turkey is forced to enter Syria, to pre-emptively defend itself from an ARMY amply and generously supplied by their NATO ally the United States- Allies?

"But many analysts say the standoff in Afrin is hotter than it looks. The influential Soufan Group, a US-based security intelligence strategy firm, said in its latest brief that the Turkish action is an example of the new coalition between Turkey, Russia and Iran, which are "united in a desire to block US interests in the country." The US will have to back down or ratchet up the conflict with its NATO ally Ankara, the Soufan Group suggests"

Back down or ratchet the conflict up- Which do you think it's going to be?

Of course I had the most recent article from Soufan bookmarked for this latest post!

The US and Turkey Showdown in Northern Syria
  • -The apparent attack has been long in coming, with U.S. direct military support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
  • -The latest spike in tensions came about with an announcement by the U.S. of a 30,000-fighter ‘Border Security Force.’
  • The initial statement about the border force was that it was intended to keep the Islamic State from regrouping while keeping foreign fighters from traveling freely. As Turkey’s reaction grew more vocal and aggressive, the U.S. stated that the rollout of the announcement had been handled poorly and that in no way was it creating a ‘border force’—even though that was the term it had used to announce its plans.
  • There was also opposition within Syria to the idea of the U.S. setting up a semi-permanent armed rebel force inside the country. Russia also expressed opposition. Turkey, Russia, and Iran have the greatest influence in Syria, though the three countries are not operating in lockstep; the one source of unity among them is blocking U.S. interests in Syria, and they have the ability to do so
  • The U.S.-Turkish relationship has been deteriorating, especially since the July 2016 failed coup. Ankara accused the U.S. of supporting the coup.
Lavrov says :US plan to create security forces in Syria may be ‘deliberate provocation’

Lavrov- He's one savvy diplomat

The US effort to create security forces along Syria’s borders with Turkey and Iraq may be a deliberate provocation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday. “In the follow-up of this course towards gross interference in Syria’s affairs, it was announced that some border security forces would be set up,” TASS quoted the minister as saying. After that, some “clumsy statements” were made to dismiss this information but in actual fact this entire activity continued, he said. “This is either failure to understand the situation or a deliberate provocation,” he said. Kurdish representatives are on the invitation list for the Syrian National Dialogue Congress due in the Russian resort of Sochi, he noted. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia maintains contact with Syrian and Turkish officials. “We believe that the principle of preserving Syria’s territorial integrity is the basic one… We’re keeping an eye on the humanitarian aspects related to the current events in the area of Afrin,” he said.
It's a deliberate provocation- Lavrov knows this. As well as I do!

I’ll end this post, same as I'd ended the, relinked below, post from 17 months ago:

Flashback: Turkey/ US: Cat & Mouse. Creating Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 Has Been A Mass Bloodletting

Personally speaking: ***Presenting the move into Syria, by Turkey, as solely being part of the NATO/Israeli planned destabilization agenda including redrawing the map of the middle east is:   
1-failing to consider that redrawn map includes a balkanized/weakened Turkey. As well as Iran. 
2-It fails to consider the obvious symbiosis between Kurds and ISIS- ISIS shock troops/Kurdish moppers and annexers.. all done under the guise of 'fighting ISIS' with the US/Israel backing both sides  
3- It is also ignoring the historical fracturing of the NATO alliance at this time. 
4-Russian/China's gain. Tacitly backing Turkey at this time means (a) weakened NATO, (b) No problem with Black Sea and Bosporus access

Personally speaking again, presenting Turkey's move into Syria without considering the points mentioned above and what has been going on the past few years is a very NATO advantageous narrative- It will allow the  NATO friendly presentation to move forward with other NATO members attacking Turkey for being 'rogue'.

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  1. That idiotic slumlord turned President, Kushner, is going to fug around and set off WW III.

    Where's Ivanka, doesn't she cry for dead Syrian babies killed by Turkey?

    1. I don't actually think Ivanka cries for any dead babies-

      Yes, it appears.. "That idiotic slumlord turned President, Kushner, is going to fug around and set off WW III"

      Alongside his equally idiotic father in law

  2. What about

    Aleppo part deux

    1. By Aleppo part deux do you mean- Turkey abandoning support of it's rebels to enable SAA to take the territory including the airport?

      Having them in position to advance on Afrin?
      Because I am getting a definite sense of cooperation-

    2. It is not that Turkey is abandoning support of its rebels, it just that the rebels who are in that region did not participate or refused to participate in the sochi talks. If I recall correctly