Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Realpolitik at Sochi

  It's interesting to observe this sort of bias against the nation state of Turkey. Largely due to some negative idea of Erdogan.  I scratch my head at it. It's another nation state in among a whole pile of nation states. It's leader is no more wily then any other leader. I don't get the whole Saint Putin vs Evil Erdogan meme? Erdogan is a player as much as Putin is a player.  And that's just the way it is! 

  It's painfully obvious that Erdogan, as the leader of Turkey has been and continues to be demonized by the 5 eyes main stream and alt media. Scott//Willy Loman pointed this out the other day at his place. *Neocon Influence Peddler Justin Raimondo Promoting Erdogan Regime Change Propaganda Like that of Israel and John Bolton

  I've written tons about the planned destabilization/balkanization of Turkey- 
Random relink: Turkey/US: Cat & Mouse. Creating Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 Has Been A Mass Bloodletting

 I don't do 'cult of personality'  either. It's just another form of manipulation or perception management.  That inevitably leads to irrationality. Thinking of Erdogan, Putin and Donald Trump.
This is what got the Trumpsters all caught up in the "make America great again' nonsense- They saw the DonaldThe Apprentice & "Your fired" was what the Trumpsters were buying into. "Cult of personality"

Sadly, Canadians bought the Trudeau 'cult of personality' hook, line and sinker. Really sad.

It seems and I could be wrong, that people don't understand or don't want to understand that what is occurring with Turkey, Russia, Iran and Syria is realpolitik "a system of politics or principles based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations"

I had hoped for so long that Turkey, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Russia would come to some sort of an understanding- Maybe temporary? Maybe fragile?  But gosh darn it, It's been years that I've talked about my hope for some kind of teaming up by all these other players in the region to challenge USrael hegemony  in order to impede or prevent entirely their own destruction through the Usrael balkanization of several nations.
 Finally it appears that Turkey, Syria, Iran & Russia have reached or are attempting to reach an understanding.

Sochi is realpolitik in action- That's how it looks to me. How about you?
Pepe Escobar excerpted- ignoring his cult of personality rhetoric

"Sochi, not Geneva, is the forum where the endgame for the Syrian proxy war will be decided.
 Diplomatic sources confirmed to Asia Times that the Turkish offensive was directly approved by Russian generals after a visit to Moscow by Hakan Fidan, second in command at the MIT, the Turkish secret service"

I'd reported on this meeting Friday January 19/2018 Russian Forces Exit As Turkey Begins Afrin Operation? Pepe reiterates, below, what I'd reported on January 21/18: Kurds Rejected Russian Protection In Exchange for Syrian Territorial Return
"For his part, Aldar Khalil, the co-chair of the Movement of a Democratic Society in Afrin, has been quite vocal about Moscow’s strategy. “Syrian Kurdish forces were given an ultimatum over the weekend,” Khalil said.  “[We were told] leave your positions to the Syrian regime or face the wrath of Ankara. They chose to stay.”
 Pepe engages in some non plausibe, in my opinion, speculation about what if the PKK/YPG decide to ally themselves with Assad? Why would they? They were already given that opportunity and they rejected. Why would Assad trust them to hold up any sort of deal regarding territorial return?
 Pepe contradicts himself as the oped continues;
"Remember, Erdogan is at the mercy of Russia’s goodwill, even though Moscow and Ankara are currently in total synch on the key issue, which is that Washington must be deprived of any leverage in Syria.

Things will come to a head on Monday when Russia hosts the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi. Sochi, not Geneva, is the forum where the endgame for the Syrian proxy war will be decided."
"Damascus is on board. So is Tehran. Ankara may also be, as long as it reins in those “moderate rebels” it controls in Idlib province (that's most probably already occurring- Why is Russia Helping Turkey in Afrin?)  and brings them to the table in Sochi. And Moscow was happy to back Olive Branch; one day after the operation was launched, Russia announced a final list of Sochi attendants. Of course, Turkey was on it. 
The bottom line is the Kremlin has Erdogan on board, but he will have to tread a fine line. Moscow is unlikely to sacrifice a prime piece of Syrian real estate, along with carefully choreographed relations with Tehran and Damascus, for Ankara to deliver a bunch of Sunni hardliners to the Sochi table. ( Russia would want Turkey to bring their rebels to the table in Sochi- so they are tied to an agreement, which Pepe acknowledges then retracts?)

Terror organization’

For its part, Ankara announced that “our operations will continue until the separatist terror organization, the YPG [Yekineyen Parastina Gelis fully cleared from the region and around 3.5 million Syrians who are now sheltered in Turkey are able to securely return to their homeland.”
From Ankara’s perspective, this implies there will be no US-backed Syrian Kurd statelet. In turn, this is bad news for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which trusted Washington’s balkanization gambit and were trained by US special forces.
If that was not bad enough, the SDF is also accusing the Russians of treason.  NATO’s southern command is in disarray, with question marks hanging over the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. The US needs Ankara’s cooperation to use it.
NATO also needs Turkey for access to the Black Sea for any future operations against Russia and Crimea."
Which means Russia needs access to the Mediterranean via the Black Sea. Which means Russia needs Turkey in it's corner. Turkey and Russia need one another at this time. This is a previously discussed topic!  Most recently: Kurds Rejected Russian Protection In Exchange for Syrian Territorial Return linking back to an even older post
The modern treaty controlling relations is the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Turkish Straits, which is still in force. It gives the Republic of Turkey control over warships entering the straits but guarantees the free passage of civilian vessels in peacetime.

Awareness  that control of this waterway is of vital importance to the many players involved in Syria is one important key to understanding events occurring present day
 Pepe wrapping it all up

"What is absolutely certain is that the Sochi Three – Russia, Iran and Turkey – have all agreed that Washington should have no influence in Syria.
In this latest chapter of the New Great Game, Turkey is bang in the middle. It will now depend on Russia and Iran for energy, with Moscow building power stations and delivering an S-400 missile defense system to Ankara.
Turkish trade will also involve China’s New Silk Road, or the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Eurasia Economic Union of Iran, Russia, Central Asia and China. “Go East” – not West – will now be the mantra."
Realpolitik is the order of the day at Sochi- Practical politics necessary for very practical reasons. Russia's own unity depends on this deal- As does Turkey's. Syrian and Iranian. 
This is truly bigger then just any one nation state.

Kurdistan: Impeding the New Silk Road/Rimland Vs Heartland

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