Thursday, February 22, 2018

Afrin "Kurdish YPG militia says Syrian army must come help stop Turkey"

If you've been following along with the situation in Afrin, as I have, you could be excused for already believing SAA had deployed to Afrin- It's clear they have not from this report!
Quite frankly I can't say with certainty if anyone at all deployed to Afrin and if some person did deploy, who exactly they are.
 What seems pretty certain is Syrian Army has NOT deployed to the area.

Reuters
“Groups aligned to the Syrian army came to Afrin, but not in the quantity or capacity to stop the Turkish occupation,” YPG spokesman Nouri Mahmoud told Reuters. “The Syrian army must fulfil its duty... to protect Syria’s borders.”
The YPG has called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government to send troops to the Afrin region in the northwest, and pro-Damascus militias arrived there late on Tuesday.
Hundreds of those fighters have deployed on front lines in Afrin battling Turkish forces, Mahmoud said.
I personally have serious questions regarding the very idea of loyalist militias being sent to Afrin. Waving a flag just doesn't cut it for me. A flag can be used like a prop. It can indicate loyalty or in the case of a false flag it can indicate deception.

flashback  Afrin False Flag ??

"But Assad did not send the army itself, a deployment that could have sparked a wider direct confrontation with the Syrian government if Turkey did not back down"
Ankara, a pro-Assad commander and Kurdish officials have all said recently that Russia intervened to stop Damascus sending the army to defend Afrin after reports of a deal with the Syrian Kurdish forces.
Ankara (nom de guerre) a pro Assad Commander ? Odd name, no? For an alleged pro Assad/loyal to Syria commander?
While Russia is Assad’s strongest ally in the war, it is also working with Turkey, which backs rebel factions, to negotiate a wider settlement to the conflict.

Russia has made two offers to the Kurds in Afrin.. 

I've covered them both previously- One right before the Turkish operation began
And several months back in 2017- The YPG/PKK wanted nothing to do with either offer, both the times they were offered- This is why I have extreme difficulty believing the narrative presented via the 5 eyes media. That and the fact that it takes plenty of time and energy to sort the wheat from the media chaff.

Most recently

Kurds Rejected Russian Protection In Exchange for Syrian Territorial Return

 July 2017:"Russia and Syria Collude With Turkey" Claims Kurdish Annexer of Syrian Territory

15 comments:

  1. Russia pulled out troops for a reason

    Netanyahu to WH 5Mar War authorization?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Netanyahu to White House- War Authorization for March 5?

    Is that what you're saying?

    Meaning Russia withdrew troops ahead of a USrael attack in the area???

    Clarify?

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  3. OK, Here is the twisted scenario I see happening here.

    This is a set up to get the SAA "assisting" the Kurdish forces to give the US/Israel/NATO most evil cabal their excuse to come to the "aid" of Turkey to fight Syria...

    The bait and the trap may be set, and hopefully Assad does not fall for the trap.

    I hope that I am wrong, but this smells like a trap!

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    Replies
    1. Hey North- I agree 100 percent this smells like a trap- I've stated exactly that a couple of days back

      I do not think SAA or anyone actually allied with them is assisting the Kurds- there is no reason for them to do so- However a narrative is being pushed that presents that as a reality which plays right into the USrael intervention scenario.

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    2. I think the SAA is just being resourceful, by this desperate attempt of the YPG getting help from SAA, they will lower their guard and they will have to reveal all their strength to the SAA because, they have no choice.

      On basis of this information the SAA will probably by every passing moment squeeze the YPG dry and will keep claiming territory back block by block until nothing of the YPG remains in Afrin region.

      By purely thinking that SAA is there to help YPG is material for a comedy show. their intentions are much more nefarious. They will use this desperation in their advantage which could possibly the easiest territory recapture in a long time.

      And in the end what are they going to do. YPG is going trough a meat grinder from the outside and will be poisoned and ripped apart from the inside. And this is not because the SAA is helping turkey by any stretch of the imagination no.

      The desperation of others is a golden opportunity for others. close to 2000 neutralized YPG units.

      The American already abandoned the Afrin to its own resources.

      The following from one of the books of Joseph Conrad goes trough my mind
      “The horror! The horror!”

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    3. Kaz: apologies for tardiness

      Your reasoning is solid IMO

      "By purely thinking that SAA is there to help YPG is material for a comedy show. their intentions are much more nefarious. They will use this desperation in their advantage which could possibly the easiest territory recapture in a long time."

      entirely sensible

      Delete
  4. Hi Penny...

    Food for thought for a more analytical mind such as yours:
    1. https://alethonews.wordpress.com/2018/02/22/overthrowing-syrian-govt-is-aim-of-wests-proposed-unsc-resolution-lavrov/
    2. http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2257.pdf
    Resolution 2257 (2015)
    3. http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/338

    Maybe I'm a little late in this, but your analysis connected me to the above RT link. It is clear that the past UN resolutions for the Golan have been pretty much smashed by the occupiers and their proxies that be. The Astana talks (May 2017) for de-escalation zones by Russia (imo) usurps an invalid and useless Western UN to bring forth an enforcer that will establish Russia as a new and better replacement. Wouldn't it mean peace and justice for the ME once and for all? I know it would :)

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  5. Actually, things are evolving fast, in Afrin.
    Assad-aligned forces have been sent and deployed in the surroundings of Afrin. "Assad-aligned" is NDF (National Defense Forces), militias alike to Iraqi PMU's. They were willing to go and help since the start of Olive Branch Op, but were prevented by SAA High Command.
    They were given the green light two days ago. The first batch of fighters was stopped by Turkish shelling, but in a few hours they kept advancing.
    Suddenly, Russian military police has appeared at the crossing border between YPG controlled territory and Syrian Gov's one. Russians have been escorting second and third batch of NDF and deterred Turkish and minions from interfering. Those batches are not just troops and technicals, but also artillery and tanks.
    Plus Putin rushed back to Syria a fair number of planes, including 2 brand new 5th gen stealth SU-57 and 4 SU-35. These are air superiority fighters and are a clear message that RuAF is ready for dogfight, should it suit.
    As a matter of fact, Turkish air force calmed down.
    In the meanwhile YPG handed down a number of Aleppo metro area neighborhoods to Syrian Gov. YPG still retains Sheik Maqsud (a Kurdish majority 'hood), but handed back all the mostly arab districts they opportunistically squatted in the last days of the Battle of Aleppo, while the SAA was busy mopping up the remnants of bearded thugs.

    There definitely is a deal going on.

    Rumors are that Syrian Army (proper) officers will soon come and take charge of Afrin's defense. Kurdish militias should integrate as NDF of sorts. YPG are not very happy and their socials issued conflicting statements, but they are NOT the only Kurdish player in Afrin Canton. And the populace hailed the NDF's arrival with "green eyed" flags, along with Kurdish ones - and even some Assad portrait. Afrin is fairly different from "East-Rojava".

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    Replies
    1. yes, there is a deal
      but just what is that deal?

      Delete
    2. Nobody envolved is gonna tell. Enemies (in this case that's USA and Israel) would benefit from knowing the details.
      Even if/when fully enforced, everybody will only *assume* what the deal is/was about.
      After all, what do we know of the details of the west-east Euphrates deal? What went on with the Conoco gasfield?

      We, the laymen, are only gonna get rumors and leaks, with all the uncertainty that comes with those.
      And facts to ponder about.

      *My* guess is that Russia, Iran and Turkey are working for stabilizing the situation in Afrin, with Syrian backing and Kurdish - armtwisted - consent.
      Yet, Erdogan can't just drop Olive Branch, pack and leave. He needs some face-saving result to bring home. He already hinted that if Damascus wants to clean up "all PKK terrorists" he's happy to let them take over Afrin.
      Dissolving Kurdish militia into some NDF-like under SAA command and recovering their heavy (US and German) weapons could somehow meet ErDog's requirements.
      In the meanwhile, the shiite NDF is there to mark the territory for Damascus while giving Assad a plausible denial ("SAA is not in Afrin... still").
      But NDF are there in the hundreds, now over 1,000 is said. Because you never know: both YPG and Turkey are nasty venture partners.

      Also maybe (stepping in the *wild* guess, here) the already conquered territory in Afrin could became a buffer-zone, from Turkish PoV, hopefully under Astana players' supervision.

      Side note: even more Russian jets have been sent in Syria, among them *another two* Su-57 and 4 Su-35. That's doubling down the air superiority stance on Putin's part.
      Now, two Su-57 have instantly been making waves in NATO/Pentagon feeds. *Four* Su-57 is no longer a field test of an almost-combat-ready-prototype-level plane, just a show for India and other prospective customers (as has been hinted by some analysts).
      My humble opinion is that this sound like "no-fly zone".
      Although I think is more geared toward USA than against Turkey.

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    3. thank you brdlp:

      All these best guesses based on limited information.. sigh- It's the best we got!

      "After all, what do we know of the details of the west-east Euphrates deal?"

      I had always thought there was a deal in that regard- one that would keep the kurds dependent on Syria and Turkey- sort of in check.
      One that would have limited the kind of damage that has occurred- After all Turkey has always insisted Kurds go east of the Euphrates- With Damascus being largely quiet on the whole thing.

      Yet, Erdogan can't just drop Olive Branch, pack and leave. He needs some face-saving result to bring home.

      Erdogan, aside. I think the Turkish people need that kind of result as well. They need an idea of being secure from attacks.

      Dissolving Kurdish militia into some NDF-like under SAA command and recovering their heavy (US and German) weapons could somehow meet ErDog's requirements.

      Again with the idea, generally of security.

      "In the meanwhile, the shiite NDF is there to mark the territory for Damascus while giving Assad a plausible denial ("SAA is not in Afrin...
      still").


      Since I'm highly distrustful of these militias because they are most often motivated by profit.... I'll remain cautiously optimistic?

      Also maybe (stepping in the *wild* guess, here) the already conquered territory in Afrin could became a buffer-zone, from Turkish PoV, hopefully under Astana players' supervision.

      Certainly not the worst thing that could happen to Syria (not the best, but not the worst) Realizing realistically Syria can not secure it's borders or territory- Supervision by the Astana partners is preferable to USrael, IMO.

      *Four* Su-57 is no longer a field test of an almost-combat-ready-prototype-level plane, just a show for India and other prospective customers (as has been hinted by some analysts)My humble opinion is that this sound like "no-fly zone".
      Although I think is more geared toward USA than against Turkey."


      It does sound like a no fly zone and is likely geared towards the US (perhaps reinforcing or reminding the US to get kurds east of the euphrates? And stop the US from moving any further west with their kurdish proxies. Russia keeps Tartus and the air base. Turkey has some security. Same for Iran. Syria can still have some territorial integrity... This would be a best case scenario for everyone concerned- Not ideal. But tolerable.

      That all said. It doesn't mean the US and Israel are going to let it stand.

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    4. I didn't mean East-West Euphrates *in Manbij area*. My bad.
      I meant in Deir Ez Zor and the Oil/Gas field region: whaddaheck went on there? SAA crossed Euphrates in three points at the very least, and still retain a (supposedly agreed upon) large bridgehead in the eastern shore. Yet, right there US bombed the hell out of SAA (they killed lots of tribal militias but *also* some 20 Russian trained and armed, élite "Isis Hunters", with Russian advisors embedded) and not a word from the Russians? WTF??
      Maybe that's why they came the Su-57's? Who knows... ATM the focus is Ghouta, anyway.

      As for your NDF diffidence... they're *somehow* like Iraqi's PMU's, but they're fairly different as well.
      Originally they were locals volunteering in defending their very houses and relatives from the jihadists. SAA uses them for garrisoning stabilized areas, rarely for attack operations. Only some of those militias gained battle hardening and were provided modern military gear. NDF are tightly coordinated with SAA commands and have limited operational autonomy.
      Only a tiny minority of NDF can be considered self-organized "gangs" (like Al Sadr PMU's) with a possible agenda of their own. Even those with Iranian links. And even if, they better be careful 'cause some strange-behaving militias have been disbanded in the past, or dissolved into regular Army, with the chieftains quietly going "back to civilian life".
      Mind you, Syrian security never suffered the setbacks of Iraq's one, never had disruption-and-rebuilding (after US meddling). Not a joke to be in the crosshair of - say - Syrian Air Force Intelligence ;)

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    5. I meant in Deir Ez Zor and the Oil/Gas field region: whaddaheck went on there?

      I called that one a message in a massacre- coming hot on the heels of the US special forces waving their giant FU flag in Manbij

      A message to Syria and Turkey both- We're here/ too bad for you- the massacre followed immediately afterwards..

      http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2018/02/chaos-syria.html
      I reported the other day the US stated clearly they don't need any congressional ok or any ok at all to remain in Syria- this had been made abundantly clear by Tillerson some time ago- but even further back with base construction etc.,

      " The Trump administration has decided that it needs no new legal authority from Congress to indefinitely keep American military forces deployed in Syria and Iraq, even in territory that has been cleared of Islamic State fighters, according to Pentagon and State Department officials."

      My other issue with the militias is why not just join the SAA- Doesn't Syria have mandatory military service? I think they do. So why not conscript them...
      Are they better paid in the militias?
      Perhaps it gives Syria an appearance of distance form them? Can't help my distrust of these militias- some of them seem very self interested.

      Sadr as an example
      PKK as another

      I hope you are correct though :)

      If they are loyal and don't abuse the people then it can be good to have a militia as opposed to a standing army.

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