Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Syria: Not If But When & How Will the US/UK/French and Israeli Attack Begin?

Though Israel isn't being mentioned as a partner in these specific US/UK/French plans, I have no doubt they are ready to take advantage of the situation.  Which means they are part of whatever will unfold. Israel is ready to go!
Here's a round up of news and views I find most relevant. Hope you do too?

 PM Theresa May Ready to Give the Go Ahead for Military Action Against Syria
 Prime Minister Theresa May is ready to give the go-ahead for Britain to take part in military action in response to a suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria, the BBC reported on Wednesday.

May would not seek prior parliamentary approval, the BBC said without naming its sources.
Trump will not seek congressional approval. I expect Macron is going to go the same route. Dictatorial like! 


Trump & May: War Pigs Hand in Hand

Syrians Brace for Attack from US and thugs

 "With a mix of fear and defiance, Syrians braced on Wednesday for a possible U.S. attack in retaliation to an alleged chemical assault"

This is NOT a retaliatory attack- This is a first strike aggression!


Link

A strike against Syria will likely come in the form of missiles, as was the case last year.

The United States would not want to risk putting manned aircraft over Syrian air defenses -- a shoot-down would send the conflict spiralling in unforeseeable new directions.

The USS Donald Cook, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, is within easy striking range of Syria, as is a French frigate with its own cruise missiles.
These two ships, possibly aided by a US submarine, are likely to play a role in a strike.  
"The US has to be very careful not to accidentally strike Russian targets or kill Russian advisors," Ben Connable, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, told AFP.
"That significantly limits the number of options available to the United States, because the Russians are embedded in many cases with the Syrians."
The French Frigate is the "Aquataine" There were reports of Russian planes flying low over it the other day:

The Aquitaine is equipped with 16 cruise missiles and 16 surface-to-air missiles. It is currently operating off Lebanese shores alongside U.S. ships as part of France’s contingent fighting Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq.
Aquitaine

“The flight took place several days ago,” a French naval source said, adding that France had contacted Russian authorities over the matter.
“Passes by military aircraft over warships are things that happen at sea. When it is deemed too close, the opposing party is notified,” the source said.

 

More on how this attack may go down- The Drive
"It seems to be all but assumed that the U.S. will launch another Tomahawk cruise missile barrage from the Eastern Mediterranean at targets in Syria. This is likely accurate, but this time around a more diverse set of assets are likely to be used in addition to Tomahawks, such as B-2 bombers, F-22 Raptors and other standoff munitions.
 Regardless of what is used, the train of thought is that Russia will return fire on the launching vessel or vessels by executing an anti-ship missile attack. There have even postings of Flanker derivatives supposedly prowling over Tartus, Syria carrying Kh-35 anti-ship missiles to support this idea. Of course, there is no way to corroborate the authenticity of these images.


Russia is more likely to contain the conflict within Syrian borders by launching a series of highly targeted standoff attacks on American interests and installations in Eastern Syria."

This would be at Tanf (US Terror Base on the Border of Jordan, Iraq and Syria)
This location was struck in 2016 by Russia- I covered the incident in this post

 Flashback: Russia Bombed Base in Syria Used by US & UK Special Forces

And the New Syrian Army too! Reread that post if you are at all unfamiliar with the previous strike and what the US has been doing at Tanf.
"Similar operating locations are also scattered as far north as al Raqqa and as far east as Deir ez-Zor.

As for the possibility that Americans could die in those strikes, Russia can say the same for American strikes on Assad's military capabilities and installations. Giving the U.S. a warning may be possible on very short notice but it could decrease the chances of their cruise missiles actually making it to their targets intact. But even if U.S. special operations personnel vacate those locales in advance of a Russian attack, destroying the infrastructure at the forward outposts, albeit already quite austere, can be claimed as a win by Moscow.
Russia already has a significant number of options for which it could execute a stand-off attack already positioned in the region

Within Syria proper, it has Bastion-P coastal defense systems, each of which includes a number of wheeled transport-erector-launchers with two P-800 Oniks missiles"


"Officially a supersonic, sea-skimming anti-ship missile, in November 2016, Russian forces in Syria demonstrated that the weapon had a secondary land-attack capability. It remains unclear how accurate these weapons are in this role given that they traditionally use radar to home in on their target in the final stages of flight and that system is geared toward searching for and locking onto ships in a maritime environment. At the same time, the missiles could rely on their inertial navigation systems with the help of GLONASS to strike a set of coordinates on a map.  
By striking from the Mediterranean, the Russians would be able to avoid having to secure permission to send those missiles flying over third-party countries. Otherwise, they would have to do so without that authorization and risk the consequences of possibly provoking diplomatic protests, or worse if one of the weapons fails and crashes inside one of those countries.
In 2015, ships from the Russian Navy's Caspian Sea Flotilla fired Kalibrs into Syria, but some of them came down inside Iran. Warships firing those weapons from inside the Black Sea would have to shoot the weapons over Turkey, while launches from the Red Sea would have to cross Saudi Arabia, and possibly Jordan, the latter being an especially staunch American ally, to get to Syria.

Another option would be to send long-range bombers, potentially including Tu-22M3 Backfires, Tu-160M White Swans, and Tu-95M Bears, carrying Kh-55 and Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles over the Mediterranean to launch those weapons"
There is even the possibility that the Russians could take the opportunity to demonstrate an all-new capability. (Too speculative in my opinion) Russia's Air Force claims that it has fielded the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, which appears to be an air-launched version of the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile, with MiG-31 interceptor units in the country's Southern Military District.
 There may be an update?!

7 comments:

  1. Hi penny

    Worrying times indeed. You were quite right that the alleged and thus unproven CW attacks in the UK and now in Douma, Syria were used to set forward a nefarious agenda. A pretext to escalate which the AZ entity seems to be itching for.

    I did catch a headline on RT that the Turkish FM has called for Assad to immediatley step down over these recent developments. Have you heard anything similar. I hope not as we are only dealing with likely FF's and they were appearing to shift their stance as in the Astana talks.

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    1. Hi Abdullah!

      I didn't see the RT article, so I can't speak to it.
      I did notice the other day Erdogan and Putin were in contact.

      April 09/2018

      http://www.china.org.cn/world/2018-04/10/content_50855787.htm

      Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday discussed by phone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about latest developments in Syria and bilateral relations.

      Erdogan expressed concerns about the attacks in Douma and Eastern Ghouta, and emphasized the importance of preventing civilian casualties and working together to deliver humanitarian aid, state-run Anadolu Agency quoted a presidential source as saying.

      The two leaders also talked about bilateral relations, expressing satisfaction of the Syria issues tripartite summit, which was held in Ankara last Wednesday with participation of Iranian side.

      The phone talk came amid an international wrangling about the allegations of the chemical weapons' use by the Syrian army in the attack on the rebels in the Douma district in the capital Damascus' Eastern Ghouta countryside.

      The pro-rebel Ghouta Media Center has claimed that nerve agent sarin and chlorine gas have been used in Syrian army's recent offensive in Douma, which has caused civilians to suffocate and choke.

      The Syrian government has denied its possession of chemical weapons, saying such allegations were fabricated.


      Turkish Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the attack and called on all the parties who have influence on the Syrian regime to fulfill their responsibilities in order to immediately stop such brutal attacks.

      Delete
  2. Saw the news regarding the Turkish Foreign Minister's statements here

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/assad-killed-nearly-1-million-people-must-go-turkish-fm-130157

    Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on April 11, at an event on Islamophobia organized in the Turkish capital Ankara, replying to a question about the recent attack in Syria’s besieged town of Douma in Eastern Ghouta.

    The article doesn't tell us what the question is?

    This looks to be his response

    “The Assad regime should absolutely leave power in Syria. It is not the first time the Assad regime used chemical weapons. Leaving the chemical weapons aside, he has killed nearly one million people using other weapons through aerial bombing, barrel bombs and conventional weapons,”

    “Thus, this individual should leave power immediately and we should move on to a political process,”

    It seems there might be more to these responses, but, I don't know?

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  3. If what you're saying about Erdogan demanding Assad step down then

    a) it's true what we've suspected about Turkey's "loyalty" (this time to the guy who saved his @$$, Putin

    b) Assad's been right all along never to forgive Turkey and never to trust turkey

    c) Turkey's toast....Putin won't save Erdogan's @$$ again.

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    Replies
    1. Hey GC: Erdogan didn't demand anything that I had seen? Erdogan isn't mentioned in either comment or link above

      I'm quoting Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu (FM) and his response to a question- Abdullah also mentioned the FM.
      Link included

      I don't know what the question was- It's not mentioned in the article.

      The other article I linked to mentioned Putin and Erdogan talking on Monday

      This is why I'm such a stickler for context and full quotes- without them, one is just stumbling in the dark-

      So far it appears Turkey and Russia are still cooperating

      Delete
  4. And if the US/UK/Israel/Saudi/etc. had simply minded their own damn business in their respective nations and stayed out of Syria/Libya/Iraq/Afghanistan/etc... this would all be a non-issue.

    As a voluntarist/anarchist... I detest the entire concept of "government", (I also abhor religion) which is nothing but a gang of elite criminals in suits dictating to those of us (tax livestock) not in the gang and demanding tribute like they were damn gods set above each of us all.

    "Government, when it is examined, turns out to be nothing more nor less than a group of fallible men with the political force to act as though they were infallible." ~ Robert LeFevre

    At 53 years of age, I've grown weary of watching all this BS these criminal gangs perpetrate against us little people. My Creator gave me 10 principles to follow... the first five are about my relationship with It, the second five are my relationship with my fellow man. Every "law" written by man extracts money out of my wallet without my consent. Not a one of my Creator's Laws does this. There are no books of laws. There are only books of statutes, codes, regulations, ordinances, rules, etc. All man made by elites. Each requires tribute should I violate them. It's nothing but a scam... a swindle on a global scale. And not a one of these man made "laws" provides me one iota of freedom. The exact opposite is the case. The more "laws" we have, the less freedom we have. So long as human government exists, then we will never be free. Take a cue from nature... there isn't an animal or plant out there being governed by other animals or plants. It isn't a perfect system in the view from our perspective, but it's a perfect system in the view of the One who created it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dwayne

      And if the US/UK/Israel/Saudi/etc. had simply minded their own damn business in their respective nations and stayed out of Syria/Libya/Iraq/Afghanistan/etc... this would all be a non-issue.

      I couldn't agree more!

      Take a cue from nature... there isn't an animal or plant out there being governed by other animals or plants.

      There is an order in nature, but, there is not an artificial construct like a government

      Delete

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