Monday, August 20, 2018

Inquiring Minds: Is Turkey Likely to Annex the Territory it Now Controls in Syria?


Personally, speaking. The answer to the above question: Is Turkey likely to annex the Syrian territory it now controls? No.

 It's doubtful Turkey needs the extra headache that would be had by annexing this territory. Way more probable is they will cooperate with Russia and Iran, as they have so far, in this regard and respect the sovereignty of Syria. 

I do think they will attempt to wield influence in the region, but, they won’t claim the land as their own.
 The one factor that may change this outcome, just my opinion, is the way Bashar Assad handles  and what happens with the territory that has been all but officially annexed by the American/PKK occupiers.

A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.
Oh and pay attention to some startling admissions from those that should know. They have access to privileged information.

Carnegie Europe.

1-Kemal Kirisci | Senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe’s Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

I strongly doubt it. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, before his death, is reputed to have instructed his chief diplomat Numan Menemencioglu not to get involved in the internal affairs of neighboring countries and to stay away from irredentist military adventures. These instructions kept Turkey away from the calamity of World War II and also constituted the reason why, in 1990, the then-military chief of staff, General Necip Torumtay, resigned in protest against prime minister Turgut Özal’s ambition to join the U.S. intervention against Saddam Hussein’s forces, which had invaded Kuwait. In Turkey, it is generally recognized that similar instincts are what pushed the Turkish military to resist their political masters’ pressures to intervene in Syria, until their traditional influence was decimated by the failed July 2016 coup attempt.
Since then, Turkey’s Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations have been driven primarily by domestic political considerations.
The policy aims to achieve three goals: prevent the Syrian Kurds led by the Democratic Union Party from constituting an independent state or autonomous region along the length of the Turkish border; shape the new Syria, or at least a corner of it, to suit his political preferences; and create circumstances for the return of some of 3.5 million Syrian refugees,

2-Gönül Tol | Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., adjunct professor at the George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies

Critics accuse Ankara of neocolonial ambitions in northern Syria. On the surface, they may have a point. In the territories Turkey captured from the Islamic State, students learn Turkish and Turkish administrators run hospitals. Turkish signposts, Turkish-trained police forces, and Turkish-built post offices all point to Turkey’s deepening role. The Turkish military has a reputation of remaining in the territories in which it intervenes outside its borders, but it might find it tougher this time. The Turkish military incursion into northern Syria was made possible thanks to a Russian green light. However, in the long term, not Russia, the Assad regime, or Iran are likely to tolerate Turkey’s military presence there.
I wrote at length about the Russian green light for Turkey to move into Syria. For all Turkish operations in Syria. Turkey and Russia cooperated on the moves into Syria.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is certainly seeking to enhance Turkey’s sphere of influence in northern Syria, but calling it “neo-Ottoman” is misleading. The original use of the term “neo-Ottomanism” implies a post-nationalist vision at peace with Turkey’s multiethnic identity...
Mr Tol doesn't think Turkey is there to stay

3-Henri J. Barkey | Professor of international relations at Lehigh University, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations

Turkey’s occupation of northern Syria will not be permanent. It will, however, continue until such time as there is real progress toward a solution to the Syrian civil war and the costs associated with it become prohibitive.
Henri J Barkey- the man who had a hand in the attempted coup and assassination of Erdogan. A Turkish Jew as well. ( Shocked, right?) Wonder where his loyalty really lies?

4-Marc Pierini | Visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, Brussels

It is hard to conceive that Turkey would end up annexing the Afrin and Jarablus districts it now controls, despite the occasional reference to Ottoman times. Rather, Ankara seems intent on continuing to occupy these territories, first to exert military control and replace the previous dominance of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, and second to engineer political change in order to make sure local structures are in line with its policies. As long as such actions suit Moscow, they will unfold relatively smoothly. 

The real issue is what will happen in Manbij and east of the Euphrates River, where U.S. forces are present alongside the Syrian Kurds. Nobody can be sure. Ankara’s fierce statements are geared at domestic politics. Washington is fluctuating between a reinforced military presence and a complete withdrawal. Moscow has given political guarantees to Syria’s Kurds since September 2015. And some European Union countries (France is one) are keen to preserve the Syrian Kurdish identity. There is no easy way forward.
What are your thoughts?

2 comments:

  1. My instinctive thought is to toss in the garbage anything that comes out of the mouths of professional liars from the US/NATO. As time goes by I negate everything they vomit. Erdogan is not stupid. Turkey has existed way longer than the US/ISRAEL and will continue to. It's their many enemies in and out of their gates that is a constant thorn. IMHO if Turkey 'looked' as if they were going to occupy Syria...it would be to bamboozle the idiots only to hand it all to Syria on a silver platter. One thing I wish Turkey would do is kick out the US bases first, then make their way forward (clean your own house before cleaning another). You are more of an expert Penny while I sit and wish :). Thanks for all your hard work. Free Syria! Free Palestine! Free Yemen! Free the M.E. from the western menace. Here is an example of this US Jew vomit:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AblUXP7c2aM&t=0s&list=PLNB-69ClKQNW4ONtmnRdn0VKc4IIDliyO&index=3
    The Debate - Giving Daesh Breathing Space

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. think this might be wallflower?
      not sure though.

      I used this info because these persons are insiders-
      and this is what they do.

      Agreed Erdogan is not stupid- that's obvious
      And you are correct Turkey has existed for a long time now

      I wish Turkey would do that as well, but, the question is really, can they?
      Would that be allowed?
      Keeping in mind Turkey is occupied. Like Japan. Like Germany. Like Italy
      Occupied since ww2
      Oh and I watched the Press tv video
      that guy from washington is very idiotic
      Like a parrot- he needed several crackers shoved in his mouth to silence him

      Delete

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