Sunday, August 12, 2018

The Sun Doesn't Rise Because the Rooster Crows: Turkey's Currency Crisis Created To Force an IMF Bailout

I've been reading about Turkey's currency crisis 'round the net. 
There seem to be some authors that are confusing correlation with causation.
These op/eds put forth the idea that the fundamentals of Turkey's economy are the reason for the currency crisis.  

 I disagree and suggest that these persons are confusing correlation and causation. Explainer:
Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: ‘after this, therefore because of this’ – often shortened to post hoc) is a logical fallacy that states ‘Since Event B followed Event A, Event B must have been caused by Event A
The invalid assumption that correlation implies cause is probably among the two or three most serious and common errors of human reasoning.- Stephen Jay Gould, American evolutionary biologist and author, 1981
OR as per my headline:
‘The rooster crows immediately before sunrise, therefore the rooster causes the sun to rise’
That is confusing correlation with causation.
But don't tell a rooster that ;)

 Intentionally or not? It doesn't matter. This confusion serves to obfuscate much of the reality surrounding Turkey.

 While ignoring/downplaying years of systemic attacks against Turkey. 

Planting the idea that the latest currency crisis is not just another in a long series of destabilization tactics that have been employed for years now. And is in fact something Turkey's leadership is responsible for. Is a convenient and very pro 5/6 eyes/banker narrative. 

 The tactics have included but are not limited to financial downgrades- a coup attempt- arming Turkey's internal enemies- A protest (that quickly ran out of steam because it didn't have broad support)  and while becoming more enlightened,  I realized positively stunk of a western fomented/Gene Sharp action. Yes, I'm recalling the Gezi Park protests.
Protests in Turkey: Simmering Anger at Erdogan? Or just another coup?
At that time (2013) I'd thought these protests might be legitimate, but, still entertained the possibility that something else might be afoot. 
Quoting from that post:
Protestors Military Provided Gas Mask
"Another threat may also be lurking. In Istanbul, people have begun whispering that the military is distributing gasmasks -- but to the demonstrators rather than to the police. The message is clear: The military supports the protests. The story is certainly consistent with the Turkish military's traditional role in society"
The opinion piece authors that I've read, as of late, suggest that Turkey's debt levels are too high. And that this debt fueled joy ride is the cause of this currency crisis. 

If that was really the case, it would seem to me the debt fueled joy ride in Canada, on every level from federal to provincial government, corporate and finally on to the consumer debts levels which are astronomical here should have also resulted in a currency crisis.  But, that hasn't happened.

 It's very clear there is much more to this recent crisis then meets the eye

As someone who has written about the take down of Turkey for years now and have noted on several occasions that this slow move towards alienating a NATO ally that has been ignored all the way around- Really ignored all around. Despite so very many signs. 

I'd expected that this day would come.  And here it is.

So, let's address reality and not some anglo zionist banker friendly narrative.  
You know the one that always blames the intended victim for the crime being perpetrated against it? Because that is ALWAYS how these take downs are handled. 
In all my years of blogging. Over a decade now- This is the normal narrative.
It was Assad's fault. Ghadafi's fault. Saddam's fault.
It's Putin's fault that this or that is occurring.  In the case of Turkey were to believe it's Erdogan's fault. It's never that simple. As we see time and time again the leader of any of the already mentioned states  had become or is presently the convenient scapegoat/justification to target and take down the nation they lead.
This is the pushing of the cult of personality- it's a straight up ad hominem tactic- 
Cult of personality can be presented as this individual is all good or this individual is all bad 
Hitler has a huge cult of personality presence.  Mostly all bad.
This method is tirelessly employed to justify waging a desired war. People fall for it time and time again. And it's employed for the very same reason propaganda is used. To distract from reality.

An old comment brought forth because it's as relevant today as it was then
However simplistic one dimensional cartoon character like presentations "cult of personality' are always used as a tool of distraction. Which is why I don't get into it.
Targeting Turkey for Take Down

In June of 2013- though not clear, it sure looked as if something was a-fowl in Turkey
Turkey + Gladio + NATO = Is pressure being applied to Turkey?

In this post I'd pointed out that all was not well between the US and Turkey. Something was off. Pressure was being applied.  I cited a congressional PDF as a source and quoted this:
"The overall U.S. policy toward Turkey is largely determined by the United
States’ need and appreciation for Turkey as a strategic partner and NATO ally"
It's very clear that US policy towards Turkey is only based on what serves the needs and interests of the US.  It's stated quite bluntly.

At that time additional observations were shared
Which could tell us that the US policy, being determined by the US's need for Turkey as a strategic partner and ally, can change depending on whatever 'need' the US determines is strategic at the time it is setting policy.
My uncertainty disappeared in November/ 2013.
When it became clear to me that, yes, the US was done with Turkey I self published a pile of posts demonstrating that US usefulness for Turkey had run it's course.  
It seemed I was alone  in seeing this as fact? Apparently the idea that NATO would turn on one of it's own was not easily accepted by many. Or some were obfuscating the reality as part of the 5 eyes msm or alt media. Below are a mere handful of posts  starting in 2013 covering the US betrayal of their decades long ally.
Finally in 2016,  Scott from Willy Loman's dropped by with this comment
 Got this message from Willy Loman:link to post and video from fake peace group
hi Penny. If you have a chance please check out my article today. its about exactly what you are writing here. A fake peace group is pushing regime change propaganda for Turkey, essentially blaming Erdogan for the entire 5 year CIA/NATO operation in Syria and it ends with praise of the glorious Kurds. They are now going all out. I would love for someone like yourself to take apart his Sunsteinesque cognitive infiltration effort. I did the best I could, but I am still very sick. please have a look if you can.
And the post below was written by yours truly and I knew, finally, I was no longer alone :) 
Yes, Willy Loman, It’s about Blamin’ & Framin’ Turkey & Saudi Arabia

And I continued on writing about the many attacks against Turkey- 
Including the post of a few days ago- US Sanctions Turkey Over the arrest of CIA Pastor Brunson

While much of the media, alt and msm, continued with fake news about Turkey annexing Mosul and other such rubbish. All the while ignoring the targeting of Turkey. Many of these same places and spaces are writing about the debt crisis etc. as a reason for the currency crisis- And they all  read very much like the article  I will be linking below from American Enterprise Institute-
  The same think tank that put forth the idea years ago that Turkey was heading for partition..(Is Turkey Heading to Partition? American Enterprise Institute)
 Coincidental ? I don't think so. A partitioned Turkey would be part of the remade region.
Forcing Turkey into submission will assist with the partition plan. 
 Additionally it is think tanks and NGO's that spread many ideas/talking points thru to the masses, via the media, alt and main stream. Which would explain the dissemination of similar views . Maybe people don't think too much about the ideas being spread. Maybe they don't question them? I'm guilty of questioning it all. And thinking. 
As my husband tells me..."You think way too much"
Many years ago Turkey paid it's debt off to the IMF. That meant they were a nation not so tightly constrained by global banking cartel or the US. This currency crisis has been created to force Turkey back into debt servitude and bring it to heel under the edicts of the US

 You'll notice the AEI headline is one that wants the readers to believe Mr Erdogan as out of touch with reality. That's not the case.

AEI "Planet Earth to Mr Erdogan"

Create a crisis. An investor confidence crisis that can be used to 'encourage' Turkey to take a bailout from the IMF. The US is the biggest stakeholder in the IMF. 
Problem, Reaction, Solution. And if Turkey takes the bailout they will become trapped. No longer will they be able to make independent decisions for their own well being. They will take orders.
"One also has to wonder how long it will take him to realize that his country has little realistic option but to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance to restore investor confidence."
Much as it might be odious to Mr. Erdogan, the sad truth of the matter is that his country desperately needs foreign financing if it is to stay afloat and to avoid a banking sector meltdown. 

 Seemingly blind to his country’s desperate need for foreign financing"
Why I thought foreign financing was the problem? Was the reason for all Turkey's woes?
How is more foreign debt going to solve this crisis?

"Experience teaches that once a government loses investor confidence that confidence becomes very difficult to restore. That is why it would appear that Mr. Erdogan has little realistic alternative but to turn to the IMF if Turkey is to stabilize its currency and its financial markets"
You see it's experience that 'teaches' a government when the investors lose confidence a nation must run to the IMF for a bailout to restore that investor confidence? 
You understand that logic right? When 'investors' are targeting your currency and they've lost 'confidence' you must get indebted to the IMF to bail these investors out. To restore their confidence in your currency. Targeting a currency to bring a nation down is nothing new under the sun.
"By providing an outside seal of approval for a credible economic adjustment program and by requiring concrete and upfront policy adjustment measures, the IMF can help quickly restore investor confidence in Turkey in a way that verbal assurances by Mr. Erdogan at this late stage in the game cannot.
Approaching the IMF will be far from easy for Mr. Erdogan. Not only will he have to effectively admit how misguided his economic policies have been to date; he will also first have to mend fences with the United States, the IMF’s largest shareholder which has an effective veto on an IMF program for Turkey.

  Sadly, Turkey’s economic crisis might very well have to deepen before Mr. Erdogan comes around to the view that the IMF is Turkey’s last hope for economic salvation."

Can it get any plainer? The currency crisis was contrived to force Turkey back into line.
To make Turkey submissive, docile and obedient. Deals with Russia? S-400. Pipelines. Nuclear power plants. Partnership with the SCO? Part of the silk road with China?  Standing in the way of the middle east remake?  Astana Partnership?Turkey is not, has not, been going along with the 5 eyes for years and years now. The currency crisis was created to bring them to heel!
It's not Erdogan's fault. That's absurd. That's a convenient and friendly banker 5/6 eyes nation narrative. But it's not reality. This IS WAR.

There may be another part to this or not. Not certain, but, I will end with the WSJ article

In Break From Precedent, Trump’s Moves Aggravate Turkey’s Currency Crisis, Rather Than Calm It

 "President Trump’s decision to double steel tariffs on Turkey as its government battled a currency collapse marked a departure for the U.S. from how it traditionally handles financial turmoil hitting emerging markets."

Trump's tariff moves prove, to my mind, that the currency crisis is contrived. And will be exacerbated until Turkey crawls to the IMF, in which case the US will dictate the harshest of terms imaginable. 

The other option is for Turkey to stand tall and reach out to other parties.

25 comments:

  1. Excelent article! I am convinced You are right!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm glad you enjoyed the article
      Apparently I'm alone in seeing this as warfare-

      I have this quote in the sidebar:

      "War is ........THE CONTINUATION OF STATE POLICY, BY OTHER MEANS"

      While we haven't gotten to the point of warfare on the ground- the state policy that started years ago is continuing to accelerate.

      Delete
  2. ...additionally this:
    The nowadays mighty alliance is that of USA and SAUDI ARABIA (see:https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/07/21/saudi-and-american-way.html)
    And Saudi Arabia and Turkey had a confrontation when Qatar was - all but militarily - attacked by the Saudis. Turkey then defended Qatar.
    So I bet, it is also/mainly Saudi money that destabilizes the Turkish Lira

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    1. Could be Saudi money?
      But more likely it's large hedge funds..
      I was going to write on the history of hedge funds and financial/currency crisis. But think that most of my readers should understand this?

      I've got something here on the Qatar situation, which, yes Turkey did defend Qatar against the Saudi embargo
      as did Iran.

      FWIW: always double triple check Eric Zeusse

      because he states in the article

      "Israel isn’t participating in the alliance’s war to conquer Yemen. Israel has no interest in Yemen — neither to participate in controlling the land, nor to sell weapons to kill Houthis"

      That's is likely not true- There are reports Zeusse should be aware of that Israel is involved.

      Israel has a military presence in Eritrea

      There are reports that Israel has allied itself with US/Saudi and are participating in the bombing

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-redsea/israel-warns-iran-of-military-response-if-it-closed-key-red-sea-strait-idUSKBN1KM5VM

      http://www.jerusalemonline.com/news/world-news/the-israeli-connection/reports-israel-involved-in-attacks-in-yemen-12575

      “If Iran will try to block the straits of Bab al-Mandeb, I am certain that it will find itself confronting an international coalition that will be determined to prevent this, and this coalition will also include all of Israel’s military branches,” Netanyahu said"

      https://yemen-rw.org/israeli-war-planes-reported-landing-in-saudi-arabia-to-support-attack-on-yemen/

      I've no reason to disbelieve the Houthis
      But know that Israel would want to keep that on the QT
      I think Zeusse should also be very well aware that the Yemen plays into the whole Iran situation and Israel wants to take Iran down big time.

      So, I don't believe Zeusse when he states that and question why he would make that type of statement other then to hide Israel's involvement.

      Delete
  3. I think You do Eric Zuesse wrong.
    Just see his article from yesterday: "The Saudi-Israeli Alliance" - http://washingtonsblog.com/2017/08/saudi-israeli-alliance.html.

    Zuesse is not Alex Jones (who spared Israel from criticism - and always blamed Palestinians).
    I assume that Zuesse's point that Israel has no interest in the war against the Yemenites, may be true. The possible fact that they did their Saudi bed-fellows a favour by bombing a little there, doesn't contradict Zuesse's statement.

    (I'll mark my comment with "J")

    J

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    1. I think You do Eric Zuesse wrong.

      That's ok with me- it's just not the first time I've seen him write in such a way... so I'm always cautious of him.

      I'll mark my comment with "J"

      that would be great to have at least some way of identifying who is leaving a comment!
      It's hard when persons opt to be anonymous and then you get more then one anon comment and you wonder.. is this the same person?

      So thank you very much :)

      PS: don't even get me started on Alex Jones.. I don't know how to put rolling eyes here, but, that guy is too much!

      Delete
  4. @Penny
    When I was just looking up articles of Zuesse, I found the article I really meant, when I stated in my first comment: "The nowadays mighty alliance is that of USA and SAUDI ARABIA".
    It is this one: "Why Trump Cancelled the Iran Deal" - https://www.globalresearch.ca/why-trump-cancelled-the-iran-deal/5650309 .
    There Zuesse stated:
    "OBAMA CHOSE EUROPE (AMERICA’S LARGEST MARKET) AS AMERICA’S CHIEF ALLY (HE WAS EURO-CENTRIC AGAINST RUSSIA); TRUMP CHOSE THE OWNER OF SAUDI ARABIA (HE’S SAUDI-ISRAELI CENTRIC AGAINST IRAN) — THAT’S THE WORLD’S LARGEST WEAPONS-PURCHASER, AS WELL AS THE WORLD’S LARGEST PRODUCER OF OIL (AS WELL AS THE LARGEST LOBBIES)."

    J

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  5. Hi Penny. No, you are not alone in seeing this as economic warfare. But, I would only add, since they are not engaging us in the same way, it is not actually "warfare" as much as it is economic terrorism on our part. They can't get away with another humanitarian intervention scheme and they certainly can't expect to be believed if they claim "ISIS" is now in Turkey... so they are doing what they can with their last little (and the coup failed as you pointed out) so they are left with their last little trick in their bag of deceit. I will post a blurb from this article and a link back here on my website if you don't mind. Good work. And yes, it is economic terrorism.

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    Replies
    1. Hey Willyloman:
      thanks for reading and what happened to your blog?!
      Tried to get there this morning and it's gone?

      Delete
  6. Hi Penny: Very educational report you've written on the current challenges facing Erdogan. I'm gaining some respect for him now that he's seen through Israel/US. His people obviously want him as leader, so can only hope he and Putin come up with a plan to save Turkey from the soul-sucking IMF -- as well as working together to get Syria back on its feet.

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    Replies
    1. Despite the spin, or perhaps the spin is directly related to Erdogan's popularity in Turkey- He's long seen through the Israel/US charade- Along with NATO's "alliance"
      I'm going to keep an eye to see what Turkey's come up with to counteract the economic attack being waged against them

      I know they have had a straight exchange situation going with a few nations- exchanging one another's currencies
      then they traded gold for oil with Iran when the US placed the first round of sanctions against Iran
      I also reported on the fact of Venezuela having created some type of crypto currency for trade including with Turkey- so they have created a diversity of options for conducting trade with a variety of partners

      Delete
    2. Forgot to sign my message above
      gallier2

      Delete
  7. Hi Penny, Nice abstract on the whole situation with Turkey. It's good to read stuff above Kindergarten geopolitics from other sources (and with kindergarten level, I mean it like with the French state TV getting caught the other day with a Putin fake news for which they already had got roasted in 2013 (the Putin as tiger hunter).

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    1. gallier2- thinking this is your comment directly above?

      Delete
    2. Yes. Sorry for the late response but I was on holiday and posted from the phone and could not log in my gallier2 account.

      Delete
    3. gallier2- it's you!!
      glad you enjoyed the article- because of course I'm now an "Erdogan lover"- yup. (not bashing constantly on someone makes you a lover of that person)

      It's frustrating because I try to dissect the news with so much impartiality and calling me an "erdogan lover" is such a cop out- I see it as a shift in the geo political situation- big for NATO and trolls boil it down to being an Erdogan lover..

      Same as now if you're against all the online censorship well ya gotta love Alex Jones.
      shakes head.
      people are so childish- it's freaky/strange/weird sometimes
      anyway Gallier (sorry for that rant)- hope you enjoyed your holiday?
      hope the family is well
      and glad your still around :)

      Delete
  8. It is obvious that the regime in Washington wants to bring the turk. Lira and Turkey's economy down. Even more threads against Turkey only yesterday (by the way: I am not a fan of Trump or Hillary or Erdogan).

    But if we take the broader view the attack of the Washington regime against the Lira is not very successful. Yes, the turk. Lira came down heavily ….. but so did the currencies off a lot of other emerging market countries!
    Let me cite from http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/summer-of-97-the-spx-jumped-6-in-the-month-after-the-baht-took-its-bath-em-is-the-canary-for-u-s-markets-its-going-to-be-swift-and-violent/ :
    "H O L Y S H I T–> "The emerging market foreign exchange basket just witnessed its largest 4D drawdown since Lehman. That’s -5.3% being a 5.2% standard deviation move over a ten year period,"
    "Indian Rupee at all-time low vs USD"
    "#India should seriously watch the Emerging Market Sudden Stop"
    "…the Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, Thai baht and Taiwan dollar are all down 5%-6% too. The contagion is already here, and chances are slim it stays in the FX market alone."
    "Italy is now falling apart. This is not good. Contagion!"

    "This issue continues to get worse. There’s no way out of this at this point. As the central bank intervenes, it’s only making matters worse, as it always does. Every currency must return to their intrinsic value. Some are doing so rapidly, other take much longer. ANYONE HOLDING ONTO REAL ASSETS IN TURKEY RIGHT NOW IS FAIRING FAR BETTER THAN THOSE HOLDING ONTO THEIR DEPRECIATING CURRENCY."

    J

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    1. Hi J
      I'd suggest that the attack against the Lira was intended to target other nations/markets as well- It was clear from the get go some of the move against Turkey looked to hit the EU, and I think that was a warning to the EU to step in line on the Iranian sanctions

      plus just the whole way the markets interconnect thanks to globalism- thinking of the 2008 subprime mortgage meltdown originating in the US that affected the entire planet.

      thanks for the link as well !

      Delete
    2. Hi Penny!
      Yes, the sanctions against Iran and Turkey hurt the EU most. And their politicians are to coward (and corrupted by US Government money) to fight back (like Erdogan did yesterday: sanctions against US-products ).

      Delete
    3. Additionally this (I just forgot the "J".):
      Instead of fighting back with sanctions against US products the EU countries could pull all their troops out of Afghanistan. This as a warning to the regime in Washington.

      A lot of EU countries now have troops in Afghanistan because of Art. 6 of the Nato contract (which says that when one member country is attacked the other have to side with the attacked partner). And the US then claimed that 911 was an attack of the state of Afghanistan against the state of the USA.
      But this was a bogus. The whole story boils down to a George-W.-Bush-conspiracy-theory (unblocked to this day by Facebook et al.!!) that said: Osama and some other Arabs met in an Afghan cave and conspired to hijack airliners and bomb New York and Washington with them. Even not CIA and FBI believed this then. And Osama was never searched by FBI and CIA in connection with 911!
      Also Afghanistan is not Osama bin Laden. And the Taliban then even offered to deliver Osama if the US came forward with proof of Osama's compliancy with 911. But the US never delivered proof.

      So if the EU countries would now rethink the then activation of Art. 6 Nato contract and now pull all troops out of Afghanistan, this would be a strong signal. Also it would be much better then feeding an escalation of reciprocal economic sanctions (which would hurt the EU too).

      J

      Delete
    4. Hi J:

      That's a good thought regarding the EU nations pulling troops out of Afghanistan.
      Interesting.

      I'm going to keep an eye on the meeting between Turkey, Germany, France and Russia regarding the US sanctions against Iran.

      Delete
  9. It’s quite clear the US is waging economic warfare— it’s terrorism.
    It’s also quite clear that it is intended to threaten the EU. Italy is most exposed to Turkish bonds, Italy also has a potential serious deabt crisis, if Turkey defaults Italy will be hard hit and so will the Euro and the EU. Italy coincidentally is Irans closest trading partner.
    So it’s all very well planned.
    It is indeed the last resort, short of military action. The US also uses economic crisises to take down the political leadership of a targeted country. The did the exact same thing against Turkey in 2001, when they wanted to bring down Ecevit, whom they knew would be opposed to the invasion of Iraq. They then brought pro-US AKP to power

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  10. Another thing: Turkey cannot loan from the IMF. The US congress past a separate law that the US would prevent Turkey from loaning any from international institutions, such as the IMF, World Bank etc. Although Turkey did end it’s IMF program in 2013, they have been loaning quite a bit of money from the world bank and European development banks.

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  11. Rescue: glad to see you stop by, I will read all your comments later today for sure= for now a quick post and then I've got lots of work to do!
    I'll be back

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