Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Did the Idlib Deal Result in Retribution Delivered by Israel and France?

It's a question that needs asking. The timing is certainly suspect. But timing isn't everything.
It can be part of the whole picture. Might there be other aspects worth considering when thinking of the attack on the Russian plane as a message delivered via missile?

 Image and caption from Janes

An Il-20 with 15 personnel onboard was the unintended victim of Syrian air defence units that shot the aircraft down during an Israeli raid on 17 September.
 The Plane and it's crew gone-
"The four-engined turboprop with 15 personnel onboard disappeared over the Mediterranean Sea at the same time as the Israeli Air Force (IAF) was conducting air strikes against Syrian government targets in the coastal province of Latakia"

1- Israel failed to notify Russia in a timely fashion in advance of their attack per their deconfliction agreement. Why did they fail in their duties? 

Moscow Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Tuesday there was no warning even though Israel's aviation control must have noticed the Russian aircraft as it was landing.
"Israel did not warn the command of the Russian troops in Syria about the planned operation," Konashenkov said. "We received a notification via a hotline less than a minute before the strike, which did not allow the Russian aircraft to be directed to a safe zone."

2- Were the Israelis' able to exploit publicly available knowledge to their advantage?
JANES “a Facebook post written by the SAA just prior warned that it could and would engage airborne threats out to “at least 100+ km”. That this post was written the day before the loss of the Il-20 suggested that the SAA’s air defence units were on a heightened state of alert, even by Syrian standards, increasing the chances of a mistake such as this.”
 Here's where I need some militarily minded person to assist. If Israel knew that Syrian air defences were engaging airborne threats out to at least a distance of 100+km, would this knowledge have given them the ability to use the Il-20 as a sitting duck?  Allowing them the opportunity to maneuver out of the way before being hit. Leaving the Il-20 as the unknowing target?

JANES “By using the Russian plane as a cover, the Israeli pilots made it vulnerable to Syrian air defence fire. As a result, the Il-20, its reflective surface being far greater than that of [the IAF] F-16s, was downed by a missile launched with the S-200 system,” Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) spokesman Igor Konashenkov was quoted by TASS as saying. The MoD noted that, while it had been given prior warning of the IAF attack, it came too late to have the Il-20 divert to a safe area"

There is a question of why the Syrian system didn't recognize the Russian plane as a friendly?
 I don't know how relevant that really is? If Syrian air defenses locked on the Israeli F-16 and it maneuvered out of the way.... leaving the Russian plane as the sitting target- Is that a question worth wasting time on? I'm really not sure that it is?

3- Impeding plans?

I do not think it is a coincidence that almost immediately after the Idlib deal is announced by Erdogan and Putin, Israel and France began attacking Syria. I had expected that the Idlib deal and all that it impedes would have garnered a response from those that have "other ideas".
 No. I’m not talking about Turkey and these imagined ‘dreams’ of a new or revamped Ottoman Empire. Which is a complete and total  red herring employed to obfuscate for US/Israeli expansionism  and border remake  done under the guise of Kurdistan creation.

Long story short a 'red herring' is a deliberate diversion of attention. 

I've read a ton of spin from 5 eyes alt and msm regarding this idea of "ottoman dreams" But not much REAL evidence to support it.  

What I'm referring to, as others divert your eyes/mind away, are plans that have been carried out since 2011, to destroy Syria and carve a big chunk of her territory away for that Israel 2.0 that’s been written about here for years now. And there is reams and reams of evidence to support this plan. I must have at least one hundred posts on the topic

2015- Kurdistan aka “Second Israel”- Ethnic Cleansing the Indigenous of the Middle East 
With regard to the possible stance of a Kurdish state toward Israel one may safely assume that it will be friendly to the Jewish state. For one thing, the Kurds will need the sympathy and support of another non-Arab state in the international arena. For another, the Kurds have never been in conflict with Israel 
The Map below has been around since 2006-

Blood Borders: A Proposal To Redraw A “New Middle East”

Why this Idlib Deal was such a shocker is beyond me

I’d written beginning in August of this year that Idlib had to be handled with care.

August 09/18: How Russia, Turkey, and Iran are Going to Avoid a Battle for Idlib

Yours truly “If Syria were to simply rush in and battle for Idlib as some persons suggest, the US and their PKK allies would take advantage of the chaos that would surely result. And Rojova will extend ever closer to the Mediterranean. Which is what the US and Israel both want!

It's really much more beneficial for regional stability that the Astana partners work together to deal with the Idlib situation in a more measured, careful manner.  That's my opinion. And to my mind it makes much more sense for the actual preservation of Syrian sovereignty.”

-This deal between Turkey Russia was, to my thinking, better for the preservation of Syrian sovereignty long run. If all goes well.

-This deal also blocked the US from attacking Syria as they took back Syrian territory.

-This deal also prevented the US from pulling off their chemical weapon psyop.

 Iran approves of the deal-
By facilitating the political settlement of Syria’s issues and considering all humanitarian aspects, the agreement can help the process to restore peace to Syria and end the life of terrorist groups in the country,” he said.

“Stopping violence and bloodshed while eliminating terrorism in the area is one the most basic and principled positions in Iran’s foreign policy,” he said.
Syria Accepts the Deal: From SANA

Damascus, SANA – Syria has welcomed the agreement on Idleb Province announced yesterday in the Russian city of Sochi, stressing that it was an outcome of intensive consultations between it and the Russian Federation with complete coordination between the two countries.
Syria welcomes the agreement on Idlib province between Russia and Turkey, the Foreign Ministry in Damascus said on Tuesday. The agreement was a result of intensive talks and full coordination between Damascus and Moscow, SANA reported, citing the ministry’s officials. They said the Idlib deal, which has “specific limited dates,” is part of the previous agreements on the de-escalation zones, achieved during the Astana-format talks in 2017. They are based on the commitment of parties to preserve Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to free Syria from terrorists and any military or foreign illegal presence, the ministry added.


  1. 1- President Assad didn't call President Putin about Latakia incident, as of Dimitri Peskov 19/09/18:
    Now how do you read that ?

    2- The day after Russia disclosed proofs of Ukraine downing of Malaysian MH17 using AD buk M1 missile,
    you have a russian plane IL20 taken down reportedly with an AD S200 missile ? Curious for the least!

    1. curious is right!
      not sure what to say.
      Do you have any ideas or thoughts that might shed light on this?

  2. Putin and part of his Military blamed Syria for the shooting down of the plane, Syria has provided all the logs and trajectory of the missiles which show that they were never involved. Putin made a big blunder and it will not go down with the rank and file of the military, his main Orthodox who see him as pandering to the Chabad.

  3. Hi Hans

    can you leave me a link to read up on this situation?
    I would really appreciate it. I'm not jumping to any conclusions that's for sure.

    re: anonymous commenter

    MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 19th September, 2018) Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian leader Bashar Assad had no contact after the crash of a Russian Il-20 aircraft in Syria, Damascus made an official statement, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday.

    "No. You probably heard an official statement from Damascus," Peskov said when asked if Assad called Putin on this issue.

    Is there more information then this available?