Friday, September 7, 2018

Idlib & The Status Quo: The Trump Resistance

My impressions based on the earliest news reports from the Astana 3/Tripartite Summit is that the status quo (the existing state of affairs) will be maintained regarding Idlib.

Instead of updating the previous post, Idlib Crunch Time: Kurds "renew" Claim for Idlib. Astana 3 in Iran- Staus Quo Or Escalation?, I've opted for an entirely new one.
 For now the status quo is the least worse option for Syria &the surrounding area. 

'Hope they come to their senses': Tehran summit ends with call for Idlib terrorists to lay down arms

"Turkey seems to have prevailed (spin- common sense prevailed- Turkey requested a ceasefire which went nowhere indicating clearly Turkey did NOT prevail) during tripartite talks with Russia and Iran, convincing the other parties that a major offensive in Syria's Idlib governorate would not be the wisest move at the moment.
The situation in Syria was discussed in Tehran on Friday by Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia's Vladimir Putin and Iran's Hassan Rouhani as part of the so-called "Astana process." The leaders of Iran and Turkey disagreed on what action should be taken in Syria's Idlib, the last major stronghold of armed groups in the country, which is dominated by hardcore jihadists.
All three nations agree that the threat of radical Islamists in Syria must be eliminated, but differ as to how this should be achieved. Rouhani advocated a strong-arm approach, claiming it would secure an end to major hostilities in the seven-year-old conflict.
"We have to realize that only the destruction of the terrorists, a military victory against them, can ensure stability and peace in the future in Syria and not only in that country," he said.
Erdogan reiterated his government's concern over the potential death toll of an offensive in highly populated Idlib, where an estimated 3.5 million people are currently living. Turkey, which borders the Syrian governorate, is also objecting to a major operation there because it would likely cause a major exodus of refugees across the border, with extremists potentially sneaking in with refugees.
"[The refugees] would have no other way to go but Turkey. But we have already accepted 3.5 million refugees. Turkey cannot take in more," said President Erdogan.
Our goal is to resolve the situation in Idlib according to the spirit of the agreements we made in Astana," Erdogan added, warning that "mistakes in Idlib may derail the political process in Syria."
The Iranian president eventually agreed that civilians living in Idlib should not become victims of an anti-terrorist effort.
I've saved an article that has the entire Iranian statement, which will be posted later

Call to end violence

At Erdogan's suggestion, the final communique of the summit was amended to include a call for all armed groups in Idlib to lay down arms and seek a political transition in the country. Putin and Rouhani agreed, which may indicate that a major offensive in Idlib is not likely to be launched in the immediate future, unless some major development happens on the ground. The Russian president remarked that the call is addressed to all armed groups in the Syrian province, including UN-designated terrorist groups.
Let us hope that the members of the terrorist organizations would have enough sense to stop resistance and lay down weapons," he said.
"Our agreements on Syria were always based on a premise that we are seeking to ensure peace between all belligerents, but kept the terrorist organizations bracketed out," he remarked.
In my opinion the bargaining on live TV was an intentional PR move to show that the 3 parties are working together-
 As he was arguing against an offensive in Idlib, Erdogan acknowledged that armed groups controlling the governorate pose a credible threat, including to Russian military personnel stationed at Khmeimim Airbase. He suggested that regular drone attacks on the Russian military site should be stopped by pushing those launching them out of range.
 During the summit, Rouhani and Erdogan were united in their criticism of the presence of US troops in Syria. The Iranian president repeatedly stressed that foreign influence was a major factor in escalating the war in Syria, and called on the US to withdraw the troops that it has illegally deployed in Syria.
Erdogan reiterated Ankara's objection to the support that the US gives Kurdish militias in northern Syria, which are perceived as a major security threat by the Turkish government.

Return of refugees key to resolving violence

Putin's remarks on the situation in Syria tilted towards humanitarian aspects and the necessity to reconstruct the country. He said that many people who had fled violence in Syria to other nations may now return to their homes.

"Conditions have been made in Syria to take in up to a million of refugees. The government has provided security guarantees to all returnees, assuring that they would not be subjected to discrimination, including in terms of property rights," he said.

Putin states that 1 Million refugees can return- The government has provided security guarantees and property rights
The Russian president argued that, if as many Syrians as possible get a chance to return to peaceful lives, it would give an impetus to a political resolution of the conflict between the Syrian government and the so-called "moderate opposition."
Erdogan disagreed with Putin, saying that the return of refugees to Syria would only be possible after a new constitution is agreed and adopted, and an election held to form a new government.

Russia, Turkey and Iran are seeking to end violence in Syria and facilitate negotiations between its government and opposition groups, which agree to cease hostilities and seek a political transition for their country. The desired outcome is a peaceful Syria under a government that properly represents all its minorities and is in control of all its territory. The final resolution of the conflict, which was greatly complicated by foreign interference and the rise of jihadist groups, is expected to be negotiated in Geneva under the aegis of the UN.

For now the situation in Idlib will remain as it has been. Which means Russian and Syrian attacks on targets in Idlib will continue to occur as they have already been.
If the US/coalition attacks or conducts a chemical weapons psyop that status quo will be altered.
 
Just an aside- the anonymous oped in the NYT's regarding the Trump administration certainly created this concept of Trump as deranged and unpredictable. 
Perfectly planted and timed if the US decides to do something deranged, yet, entirely predictable. 
Like escalate in the region of Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey? 
But if the US opts to not escalate, thanks to the anonymous oped, the masses will understand the "Resistance inside the Trump Administration" prevailed.
That my friends was a total psyop!  Psychological warfare on the domestic audience!

So, two previous posts today:

4 comments:

  1. No fly NE Syria and move on kirkuk
    http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/eb1fc54d-81dd-442a-a1e5-54e7d2b44fc5
    http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/eb1fc54d-81dd-442a-a1e5-54e7d2b44fc5
    http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/interview/08d36d63-aa6e-438b-b911-a38a477adb17
    Basra protest and live fire ammo draw the attention (Sadr)

    https://www.voanews.com/a/protests-in-southern-iraq-to-demand-better-services-jobs/4483433.html
    https://www.france24.com/en/20180906-iraq-cleric-sadr-parliament-basra-clashes-protests-shiite-water

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/iraq-muqtada-al-sadr-rare-saudi-visit-170731073908238.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sadr was involved in the Basra protests?
      Saw they set fire to the Iranian consulate- that was intentional..

      https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5343944,00.html

      "The protesters shouted anti-Iranian slogans outside the Iranian consulate, including "Iran, out, out!" before they stormed it and set a fire inside. Smoke could be seen rising from the building. Protesters also burned an Iranian flag"

      government corruption, lack of services etc.,
      and/or cover for something else?
      Well if Sadr was involved....
      Sadr benefits.
      https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/05/middleeast/iraq-basra-clashes-intl/index.html

      "Shia firebrand cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr appears to have sided with protesters, saying they "only want to earn their living with dignity.""

      https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/07/middleeast/iraq-basra-protests-wedeman-intl/index.html

      "The real winner from the current unrest may be Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shia cleric who has emerged as a blistering critic of corruption."

      A blistering critic of corruption? My arse.
      The epitome of corruption and duplicity.
      The unrest in Basra may also give cover to covert operations heading into Iran.

      Delete
  2. Hi Penny.

    You're right about Russia's state apparatus and media, Penny.
    There's still a lot of Jewish mafia in there. Not long ago they were singing the praises of Israel 2.0 terrorists (PKK/PYD), just like the 100% Jewish (Rothschild) mafia controlled Western media.

    They still absurdly state that: "Idlib remains the last stronghold of terrorists in the country." (RT vid.)
    Then to what country do the parts belong which are barbarically terrorized and ethnically cleansed by Israel 2.0 terrorists? To ISIS?

    Anyway, ideally Turkey, which is no longer hijacked by NATO-Gülen cartel, should liberate (invade) Idlib. It would be far more peaceful and eventually bring it back under Syrian Government control just the same.
    Or, if the Syrian (Alawite) government wants none of that, Turkey the north, and the SAA the south.







    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Laika:

      Yes the way news is delivered.. Always with perceptions managed- RT like others is oddly pro Atlanticist/zionist- I prefer TASS for news from Russia

      Idlib is not the "last stronghold of terrorists" in Syria. As you rightly point out ISIS and Usrael's Kurds are still setting there on stolen territory as well-

      The scenario you mentioned- where Turkey liberates the north and Syria the south is actually one option I've seen bandied about.

      Who knows maybe it will happen?

      Delete

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