Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Russia to Brief UN Security Council on Fate of Idlib: Will Idlib be Divided?


We have all now been made aware that claims of a coordinated Syrian/Russian move into Idlib were false.
Yesterday, it was  also reported (report in top link above) that Russia was to brief the UN Security Council, today, on the Fate of Syria's Idlib. I'm including another one for today's posting.

Russia To Brief UN Security Council On Fate Of Syria's Idlib
Russia will brief the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday about the results of the Tehran summit it held with Iran and Turkey on the fate of Syria's Idlib province, diplomats said.

The council will meet at Russia's request at 1500 GMT to hear the briefing as Syrian forces, backed by Russia and Iran, are preparing for an all-out military assault on the rebel-held province.
 Inquiring minds want to know


  • -Is Idlib going to be divided into 'zones of influence'? 
  • -Agreed upon by the Astana 3? 
  • -With the acceptance of Damascus?

Does the article below give us all any insight into what Russia will be reporting today at the UN? It came from a Turkish source. Put through translate. So it's a bit 'garbled' 
None the less there is a map and the gist of it is... Idlib will have three zones of influence.

Is the fate of Idlib represented in this map? 


Idlip - Railway & Highway / Idlip - Leaked from Astana

Original Link
https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/yazarlar/2017/10/11/idlip-iyi-kotu-ve-cirkin/
Translate link

Keep in mind the many shortcomings of translate:
"The actual field was military-not to create endings, but to have a diplomatic maneuvering space that would contribute to lasting peace in our neighbor's Geneva masks, which will be returned in a form. Is the bad guy (Lee Van Cleef) shot on stage in the first paragliding here is HAS, the ugly (Eli Wallach) other "insurgents" who are stuck in the gun? Whilst the first shot is supposed to be Afrin (YPG / YPJ), we will see the good (Clint Eastwood) identity change.

Dear regional expert Fehim Tastekin "American wrestling", my profession grower (e.) Ambassador Oguz Demiralp "pancreas", I also preferred this title. Hani said "Mexican stand-off". The scene where they see each other in front of the three musketeers who will act silly . Perhaps it would be more local and similar to the national "Japanese castle match".

Let's say Idlip is ducked, leaning, leaning or pulled. The executive summary shared by his meticulous journalist Ümit Kivanç in his blog is as follows: "On the one hand, while HAS is breaking, putting the other opponents on the negotiation table in the created horror environment and imposing acceptable conditions for Assad, I think it is political-military plan. I think it's roughly like "purpose-scope-definition" written by Kivanc. Let's try to look a little closer.

There is a road that cuts the province roughly on the axis of north-south or Aleppo-Dam, and a railway to the east. There is also a document on Astana's consensus on how to establish a conflict-free zone at our disposal. This completes the statement that the parties made by the Russian official after the meeting will deploy 500 "observers". It is also a three-part map that leaks from our own channels to the media immediately after the view. It is also a question of whether the Idlip settlement unit will be entered or not.

Apparently, and Chief of whether service to the press on the one hand the photo map they are working on the MIT Undersecretary Fidan Akar, on the one hand my belief that the icing of the map in question strengthens that he, Turkey's responsibility to secure the area from Hatay border with the eastern highway line.
 
The eastern part of the railway is the territory of Iran-backed regime forces and the insurgents who will be subject to them. The two lines are either here or they will be stuck here, HAS and other al-Qaeda fighters that are the fountains of the derivative elements. If it does not start, it is the fate of the Idlip provincial center, which is not supposed to return to a second eastern Aleppo.

Despite all the images shared with Tantanay, there is no beginning operation. If you ask me, Moscow has to be in accordance with the conditions of conflict in which it convinces Damascus. Taking lessons from Firat Kalkan, Esat will not want to see the Turkish armored troops and thousands of existing troops on Syrian soil. When the time comes somehow, the elements of ÖSO that can be overturned are separate. For air support, it was expressed by the President of the Republic of Cyprus, which we based ourselves on the Russian Air Force. You do not have permission to fly in the Idlip ferry to the Turkish Air Force.

In the meantime, instead of khaki colors (as Ümit Kivanc paid attention), "the carpet in Khurasan is touching" according to the conditions of the desert preferred land vehicles, some of our officials went to Idlip in the media accompanied by some of our officials took place. Then a new agreement was reached with HAS and a new group called Ansar-ül Furkan (the same name in Iran's Belucistan) was soon to leave the HAS and prefer to use armed resistance. The General Staff officially announced that the "discovery" work had begun.

Metin Gurcan Al Monitor, a specialist in military matters, rightly emphasizes that it is the most vital lesson to be taken from the Euphrates Shield, which can not be carried out without air support. Gurcan's pointed and constantly implied reconnaissance work and the creation of a conflict-free zone are basically preparing the ground for an operation against Afrin. For now, both the Pentagon and Moscow are satisfied. What a pleasure it would be for Afrin to dive. Meanwhile, YPG announced that the "Idlip Military Council", which will be operational soon, is also among the fresh news in need.

(But not the same), while the entire Idlip Operation (like a "Afrin Cellad" or something like "Afrin Celladi" has not been given yet, will not it be a "movement"?) Sefer Tas and Fethi Sahin's martyrdom was officially handed over by the General Staff. At that time, the government spokesman Numan Kurtulmus said, "The images are made up, the media foot coincides" and the ruling party "Islamist Kemalist" Aydinlik said "TSK CIA operation". I will not say anything, but if you have conscience in the amount of the work, you can imagine what it means to burn your pup when you grow up and not kill your puppy, and learn the name of these two human beings well, I will say that much.

ISID this, we know it, unfortunately we learned with the Ankara Massacre, Reina and Suruç. Then where should we put the excerpt of Sayin's "we do not want another Kobani"? In other words, was it a "defeat" for us to be defeated by YPG / YPJ from Kobani? Or did Syria strike our strategy and put our national security in jeopardy? I could not understand it. As I have mentioned many times, it is not possible to keep all the public announcements in the air. At the same time, Moscow, Washington, Damascus, Tehran, and Baghdad are all satisfied with the elliptical menu treatments, or both"
 If there is anyone who can help to clarify this article, by all means leave some information in the comments.

Long story short:  

-The Astana 3 might have agreed to a division of Idlib. I don't know with any certainty, of course. 

-If they did make this agreement, this move will form a permanent block to Usrael Kurdish plotting to move westward.  

-Turkey will have the security for it's own border. Syria really does not have the means to do full border control at this time. ( I have read reports that Syria does not have the troop numbers to fully take control of Idlib) 
 

-If the Astana 3 did agree to this division of Idlib- Idlib will remain part of Syria. So territorial integrity will be claimed as intact. 

-But, what will the USreal/coalition response be?

Russia presents it's update to the UN today at 11:00 am EST- So in just over two hours from now, hopefully, we'll have a better understanding regarding the fate of Idlib. Hopefully?

12 comments:

  1. Hi, Penny!
    Yes, me, too, had problems to understand that article (helpful Your recapitulation at the end)
    We might understand even more with this article that I just found: It puts light especially on the frictions within the Russia-Iran-Turkey relation and the problem of isolation that Erdogan's Turkey now faces:
    "BEST SERVED COLD: JUDO MASTER PUTIN STICKS IT TO ISOLATED, BUMBLING ERDOGAN ON IDLIB" - https://russia-insider.com/en/best-served-cold-judo-master-putin-sticks-it-isolated-bumbling-erdogan-idlib/ri24707


    J

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks J
      I did read it, but, it was maybe a bit to speculative for me.
      "100 percent Of the media under Erdogan's control?"

      I did like the link to the joint communique though.
      I'm going to post it tomorrow!
      Still following the Idlib situation very carefully

      Delete
    2. Thanks, Penny!
      "100 percent Of the media under Erdogan's control?"
      Probably as much as You, Penny, I despise this Erdogan-bashing that rules the MSM (especially in western EU countries). Its the same to me as this permanent Trump-bashing in MSM. But this doesn't mean I think much of Erdogan - and Trump. The philosopher Gurdjev once said (often cited by Bhagwan): Most people don't grow older (mentally) than 3 years." Let's make 5 years out of it, and I would agree. Erdogan and Trump are little boys of the age of 5 years. Only with a later age, I think, children develop the ability to self-criticism and an understanding for justice and tolerance (being able to see "the other side" of everything).

      Erdogan, as a Muslim Brotherhood man, in his area wants to make away all other religions (I am not a Christian). He wants to rebuild the old Turkey (before WW I). Not understanding the world with his mind of a 5 years old he moves to and fro, just led by emotional affect - not by understanding and planning.
      He brought Turkey into great danger, because the US-Nato empire would like to break down Turkey. But Erdogan doesn't' see this. To this "break down" see this little map in the article "FINDING A WAY OUT OF THE WAR AGAINST SYRIA" - http://www.voltairenet.org/article202869.html .you
      You don't have to read the whole article, Penny. Also from these following links just skip those which are not of interest for You.

      But to get an impression of Erdogan and his politics these following links (sometimes several years old) are very useful:
      "GENERAL ISMAIL HAKKI PEKIN: THE NEXT WAR WILL TAKE PLACE IN TURKEY" - http://www.voltairenet.org/article195177.html .
      "THE ISLAMISATION OF TURKEY IS IN PROGRESS" - http://www.voltairenet.org/article193327.html .
      "TURKEY ANNOUNCES ITS PREPARATIONS FOR INVADING GREECE" - http://www.voltairenet.org/article199824.html .
      "HOW TURKEY SUPPORTS THE JIHADISTS" - http://www.voltairenet.org/article190363.html .
      "THE MILITARY STRATEGY OF THE NEW TURKEY" - http://www.voltairenet.org/article198369.html .
      From 2015: "NEARING THE END OF THE ERDOĞAN SYSTEM" - http://www.voltairenet.org/article187879.html .

      J

      Delete
    3. … in an (translated from German) article I found this very true statement, that Erdogan in unable to untestand: "The territorial unit of Syria is also the territorial unit of Turkey".

      See: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fdeutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de%2F2018%2F09%2F12%2Frussland-will-konfrontation-zwischen-syrien-und-tuerkei-verhindern%2F&edit-text=

      J

      Delete
    4. J: bear with me I'm using a new keyboard and it's awkward, despite being 'ergonomic'

      I've written for years about the plot to destroy Turkey
      and am quite certain that Erdogan is fully aware of this as he's stated that plenty of times
      will read the additional info- ty

      Delete
  2. US just announced the "joint" manbij patrols going slow but well with Turkey. Unclear if Turkey has been on a patrol in the actual town since the deal.

    Turkey and US just coordinated on a PKK sinjar diplo kill. NE PKK rival? Militaries closely coordinating??

    Maybe Russia and Syria know something about The Turkish .mil (coup remnants) and decision making

    Someone is lying.

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-enhance-cooperation-iraq-and-syria-turkey-1589897831

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/08/11/a-u-s-designated-terrorist-group-is-saving-yazidis-and-battling-the-islamic-state/?utm_term=.2a6d823e1701


    ..patriarch of constantanople, alleged to be involved in coup, now central to ukraine and russian orthodox schism with the US backing kyiv in wake of the Donbas assasination.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. everything I've read and written here about the so called 'joint' manbij patrols have the two parties patrolling sepertely as if to keep an eye on one another- Turkey has never patrolled Manbij itself. tHE uS IS ALSO building a new or expanding an already
      existing base in that locale.


      can you provide a link for the sinjar diplo kill?
      maybe russia and syria are aware of some military remnants (coup plotters) not ousted?

      as for the pkk being involved in the alleged Yazidi exodus in 2014???

      The PKK and the US have always been tight and that's been written about for years here
      PKK= ISIS

      Delete
  3. Like trump says syria pullout and pentagon says no. .mil running it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Erdogan just purged another 60 gulen. Mil on mil ?

      Delete
    2. I understand what you're are saying- thanks :)

      Delete
  4. Great reporting, Penny. That map looks good.

    Main thing is for Russia/Turkey to prevent a Usrael (PKK/NATO) Empire invasion of N.W. Syria (and possibly Hatay).
    Why would Usrael make such a fuzz about Idlib otherwise?
    Turkey should attack Usrael's PKK (NATO Gladio) terrorists north of Aleppo and east of the Euphrates as well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Laika
      My reporting is earning me a lot of haters-
      I go where the info takes me and that's all I can say about it.

      "Main thing is for Russia/Turkey to prevent a Usrael (PKK/NATO) Empire invasion of N.W. Syria (and possibly Hatay)."

      I hope they can with the help of iran, if not,the whole regions goes!

      Delete

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