Saturday, February 16, 2019

Kashmir Attack: Prompt/Encourage a Crisis in South Asia

Interesting to see the word "prompt" used in the headline?

Prompt: to move to action; to serve as the inciting cause.

India Today
 The article lays out three basic relevant points.

On Thursday, a suicide car bomber launched a major terrorist attack in Indian Kashmir. In the town of Pampore, a vehicle armed with a bomb rammed into a bus full of Indian paramilitary soldiers, killing 44 and injuring several others.

Although insurgent violence against military targets in Kashmir is not without precedent, here’s what’s different: This attack is the deadliest single incident in decades involving Indian security forces.

The attack has India rattled — and pointing fingers at Pakistan. This is troubling because India and Pakistan have fought multiple wars over Kashmir besides being engaged in intermittent skirmishes along the border. Will the Pampore incident spark a new and dangerous phase in the enduring rivalry between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan? Here’s what you need to know:
1. Who is responsible?

Militant group Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), a group that aims to unite Kashmir with Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for the attack. According to JeM, the bomber, Adil Dar, hails from a town near the site of attack. This is not unusual for Kashmir, where Indian authorities are concerned about a spike in young recruits joining Islamist militant groups operating in the region. In the Kashmir valley, anger and resentment toward the Indian government has deepened in recent years — especially as the government has employed violent repressive tactics.

JeM’s claim of responsibility makes the situation especially volatile. JeM is a sophisticated group, with a base in Pakistan and a history of salient attacks in India. It carried out the 2001 attack on the Indian parliament in New Delhi, and the 2016 attack on an Indian air base in the city of Pathankot.

Though officially banned by the Pakistani government, JeM has operated from Pakistan for two decades, which suggests it has close links to Pakistan’s security establishment. JeM has also helped Pakistan in its own war against terrorist groups like the Pakistani Taliban. At the United Nations, at Pakistan’s behest, China has repeatedly blocked JeM’s designation as a terrorist group.

Given Islamabad’s ban-yet-support approach toward JeM, many in India and beyond are likely to see the Pakistani security establishment as having sponsored the Pampore attack. Pakistan has denied any involvement, and will continue to do so. Pakistan might offer to investigate cross-border links of the attackers and arrest some JeM leaders for the time being. However, given the bad blood between the two countries on investigations of similar attacks, it is equally likely that Pakistan may outright refuse to respond.
40 Dead

Pakistan's security establishment ties back to which prominent global players?


2. What happens next in South Asia?
On Friday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged a strong response.

But the Pampore attack revives India’s strategic dilemma on Pakistan-based militant groups: how to retaliate without risking a nuclear war. The urge to act is particularly serious, given Modi’s long-standing pledge to punish Pakistan for supporting terrorism on Indian soil.

Modi is also up for reelection this year, which in recent months has increasingly looked like an uphill battle. As political scientists Vipin Narang and Paul Staniland point out, no foreign policy issue rallies the Indian electorate like anger toward Pakistan. If the Modi government does nothing in response to the attack, it is likely to incur domestic political costs.

What response options might India consider? In 2001 and 2002, Indian policymakers undertook a massive troop mobilization along the international border with Pakistan, threatening all-out war. In 2016, India claimed to have carried out a small-scale incursion as a retaliation for an armed attack on an Indian military camp in the border town of Uri. India has also considered airstrikes and artillery fire on Pakistani military and intelligence positions deep in the Pakistan-controlled part of Kashmir, as well as a large-scale rapid attack in mainland Pakistan.

But Pakistan can thwart some of these options. It has a favorable defensive position in Kashmir, which suggests it could limit the damage from small-scale Indian incursions. In 2001, Islamabad responded to a large-scale Indian troop mobilization with its own mobilization and held its ground. In recent years, Pakistan has developed small-scale battlefield nuclear weapons — called tactical nuclear weapons — and threatens to use them in case of a large-scale Indian attack against advancing forces.

This means any Indian military action comes with a risk of serious — and potentially difficult to control — escalation of hostilities between the two nuclear-armed foes.
This is not to say India will be deterred. Many Indian policymakers, including the army chief, argue that Pakistan’s capabilities are overstated — despite warnings by some officials that the Pakistani reaction might be difficult to manage. And Modi has political incentives to act. He is likely to assess this uncertainty, gauging the high domestic political cost of not acting against the potential risks of military action. The chance of serious Indian use of force against Pakistan is real.
3. What will be the U.S. response?

The White House issued a statement to condemn the Pampore attack — but Washington is in an awkward position. The United States wants Islamabad’s help to end the war in Afghanistan, and senior U.S. officials have cautiously praised Pakistan’s help in recent months toward the Afghan peace process. President Trump’s emphasis on a pullout from Afghanistan increases Pakistan’s importance to U.S. regional policy.

The United States would be hard pressed to sanction Pakistan for terrorism emanating from its soil — or back an Indian military operation into Pakistan. The U.S. government might continue to condemn Pakistan for providing terrorist groups with a safe haven but that would be the possible extent of its support for India. As important as the long-term India-U.S. relationship may be in the eyes of U.S. strategists, the needs of the conflict in Afghanistan — and Pakistan’s role there — are likely to take precedence in the short run.
The White House response has been pretty muted. Media coverage has been quite subdued.
"Might continue to condemn Pakistan", which would amount to lip service.

This terror attack came hot on the heels of the attack on Iran. Which also originated from Pakistan. These are not happenstance occurrences.


India and Iran sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal

That's correct there was a terrorist attack in Iran: The very day of the Summit in Sochi. Message to Iran? You betcha! Delivered via Pakistan - In collusion/cooperation with the Sunni Muslim terror group PKK, undoubtedly!  Not to forget the MEK.

January 2019:

 Rumours of An American Withdrawal From Afghanistan Appear Exaggerated 
 The claim of withdrawals most definitely mean more war. As IS the case in Syria most recently. As was the case in Iraq not so long ago. Where withdrawal meant increased bombing and civilian displacement and hell even the "arrival" and expansion of ISIS
Isn't it interesting to observe that while the US is claiming to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, same as all those years back in Iraq, though none left either nation state, yet terrorism and war increased? 
Including but not limited to more terror attacks in the occupied nation as well as the surrounding states.  Which we've just witnessed the occurrence of in both Iran and India. Neighbours to Afghanistan/Pakistan.. It's a repeating pattern.
 

 Go back to the July 2018 post:
 Pakistan & the geopolitical global game of chess
  1. Pakistan is a critically important piece in the geo political game that is taking place in that part of the globe.
  2. There are plans to balkanize Pakistan.
  3. There is an area called Baluchistan that is a specific point of interest
  4. There is a giant port at Gwadar- Built by China
  5. This also connects back to Afghanistan and India.
Recall my statements of last year?
Imran Khan has not been empowered to unify the country or to have friendly relations with India. 
PFYT 2017 “ the mercurial and virulently anti-Indian Imran Khan, who has been a protege of the army, could emerge stronger than he is now.”

Who wants India and Pakistan at each other’s throats? Hmmm...

From earlier today:
"Iranian officials have warned that the US is relocating the militants from Syria to Afghanistan"
ISIS for their safe passage out of Dodge. Relocation could be to Afghanistan? 
Or Pakistan? And, yes, I have Pakistan in mind for a very specific reason.
Two terror attacks emanating from Pakistan in days of one another. Moving ISIS to Afghanistan is the same as moving them to Pakistan.
Go back to  Dec 2017: 

 French ISIS Fighters Relocate to Afghanistan from Syria

 
 The myriad of death, destruction and mayhem strands interwoven to reshape a region is most likely unimaginable to most of us.

Certainly the dots connected here merely scratch the surface.


Don't Miss:

US Asks EU to Deploy Troops To Occupy Syria/Encircle Turkey

14 comments:

  1. Hi Penny:

    "...Modi is also up for reelection this year,"

    Didn't know that but it explains everything. That, and the fact that Modi is negotiating with Russia for some S-400's.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pressuring Modi in an election year.

      There is the s-400
      Pipeline deal with Iran
      and Kashmir has resources

      Delete
  2. Hi Penny.

    It's part of the satanic - i.e. the white supremacist Ashkenazi mafia run - West's Sept. 11, 2001 false flag war of terror (in their bid for world domination (enslavement, genocide) on Islam, China, and Russia.

    Traditional Sunni/Shia Islam was their most formidable opponent at the time, now joined by a rising China and a restored Russia.

    This is clearly a false flag terror attack no doubt perpetrated by Tulsi Gabbard's friend Modi on his 'own' Indian security forces.

    The 'Nazi' Modi, the 'Nazi' Saudi anti-Muslims, and the (Ashke-) 'Nazis' who run the West are of course (cui bono?) working closely together in their war on Pakistan, Islam, and therefore China (and the rest of the free world).
    I remember you didn't trust Imran Khan entirely either.

    Did you read Gordie Duff's (must read) revealing article at New Eastern Outlook about how many times the 'Nazis' already have used nuclear weapons (devices) in their (false flag) terror attacks?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Laika:

      We'll have to agree to disagree on the idea of this being a false flag perped by Modi.

      -It's too risky in an election year.

      -Khan is anti India

      -Pakistan's security service is interconnected with Usrael going back to the days of OBL- Mujaheddin and Afghanistan as well at to 9/11

      -Usrael backed terror groups have run rampant for decades in Pakistan- to destabilize everyone in the region including Pakistan..

      -The Prime Minister before Khan had brought Pakistan closer to China... Khan will sever that relationship

      - the US is very quiet on the attack

      -Iran made oil pipeline deal with India

      -As GC pointed out India is purchasing s-400
      in spite of sanction threats

      https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-to-get-s-400-missile-systems-from-russia-between-october-2020-and-april-2023/articleshow/67350582.cms

      “The S-400 systems will provide a very capable air defence coverage to vulnerable areas/vulnerable points,

      As for the looming threat of US financial sanctions over the S-400 deal under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act) ..which seeks to prevent countries from buying Russian weapons or Iranian oil.

      Bhamre said the Indian government was “aware of all developments that may impact procurement of weapons systems

      The government takes sovereign decisions based on threat perceptions operational and technical aspects....


      I don't read Gordon Duff. Ever.
      Sorry :(
      Don't trust him.

      Delete
    2. Laika:

      Just days before the Kashmir attack- Terrorists from Pakistan attacked Iran...

      Pakistan is the common factor in both the attacks.

      Delete
    3. It's fascism's (i.e. monopoly capitalism's) war on China, Penny.
      (they also see traditional Islam and Putin's Russia as arch-enemies)

      Since 1953 all major countries were more or less interconnected and collaborating with Usrael, except China since 1949 and Iran since 1979.

      That India's fascist (and rabidly anti-Muslim) Hindutva regime is collaborating with Usrael to destabilize China's cooperation with Pakistan (CPEC) is a fact. (if Khan is also a collaborator and traitor to Pakistan and India then it's even worse)

      The S-400 systems with which Russia - probably to no avail - tries to entice these fascist Usrael aligned autocracies (Gulf states, India) are irrelevant (to US/NATO) because unlike formerly Usrael controlled Turkey, these countries are not targeted by Usrael.

      It's not about trusting them to tell the truth all the time, but whether they (sometimes) at least try to tell the truth, or do the exact opposite, such as the MSM which you do read.

      See also half-truth-teller (unfortunately it doesn't get any better than that anywhere except on small blogs and Adam Garrie's Eurasia Future is therefore still one of the better alternative media) Adam Garrie's articles on Kashmir at Eurasia Future.

      Delete
  3. Thanks Laika:

    I will look at Adam Garrie's articles.

    wrt Duff.. Years ago, I used to read him, but..over time he seemed less reliable so I gave up on him completely.

    wrt the Pakistan/India situation I'm more inclined to see outside interests as the driving force in fomenting troubles between the two nations- In this regard I know Pakistan's security services have long been compromised. Their biggest financial benefactor has been the US for a very long time.

    https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-pakistan-military-cooperation

    Soon after Pakistan was founded in 1947, U.S. concerns about Soviet expansionism in the region and Pakistan’s desire for security assistance against a perceived threat from India prompted a military alliance between the two countries. Washington and Islamabad signed a mutual defense assistance agreement in 1954 and soon military aid started flowing into Pakistan.

    in 1979 brought the military and the intelligence agencies of the United States and Pakistan into a partnership. Along with Saudi Arabia, they worked covertly to support the Afghan resistance, the mujahadeen, against the Soviets throughout the 1980s.
    Foreign military assistance from Washington has increased exponentially since the 9/11 terror attacks, and Pakistan currently ranks among the largest recipients of U.S. military aid. In June 2008, the U.S. government reported that nearly $11 billion (PDF) in military and economic assistance grants have been delivered since 2002, the vast majority channeled through Pakistan’s military for security-related programs. A report by the Center for Public Integrity finds that in the three years after 9/11, military aid to Pakistan from the Coalition Support Fund—created after the attacks to assist U.S. allies in the global fight against terrorism—was nearly $3 billion


    This noise about a 300 million dollar withdrawal in aid, most recently, was just noise


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/pakistan-aid-cut-money-owed-assistance-180903060338544.html

    The significance of United States cancelling $300m in security assistance to Pakistan has been downplayed by the country's foreign minister who said the amount was a reimbursement and not assistance.

    ReplyDelete

  4. For reference:
    https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/pakistani-nuclear-program

    Amid a bitter rivalry with India, Pakistan became a nuclear power after testing its first bombs in 1998.

    Early Years

    Atoms for Peace symbol, 1955

    Pakistan began its nuclear efforts during the 1950s as an energy program. It was prompted in large part by the United States’ “Atoms for Peace” program, which sought to spread nuclear energy technology across the globe. In 1956, the Pakistani government created the Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) to lead the new program. The United States gave Pakistan its first reactor—the five megawatt Pakistan Atomic Research Reactor (PARR-1)—in 1962.

    During this early period, PAEC chairman Ishrat Usmani devoted government resources to training the next generation of Pakistani scientists. Usmani founded the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Sciences and Technology (PINSTECH) in 1965 and sent hundreds of young Pakistani students to be trained abroad.

    Around the same time, Pakistan began receiving considerable international support for its nuclear program. Canada, for example, provided a 137-megawatt heavy water nuclear reactor known as Canada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU). The reactor was installed at the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) and was soon producing weapons grade plutonium.



    Although Pakistan claimed that its nuclear program was only pursuing peaceful applications of atomic energy, there were signs that its leadership had other intentions. This fact was particularly evident in wake of the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War, which ended in a nominal victory for India. “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own,” proclaimed then-Minister of Foreign Affairs Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

    etc.,

    ReplyDelete
  5. some tidbit for you
    JEW Hasnat Khan who was screwing JEWESS Princess Diana is a cousin of JEW Imran Khan, see the connection, remember he married into the Jewish family Goldsmith, you don't get this privilege unless you are one

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi hans
    I've covered the ties between Imran Khan/ Goldsmith banker connections including the marriage but Hasnat Khan is a new name to me....

    I'll do a bit of reading on that name
    thanks

    btw: hans how's the bullshit spreading at "syrian perspective"... are people getting it yet?

    It's not syrian it's muddy the regional remake perspective...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you have been right all along especially with Cantanama, i follow him on ywitter and he is 100% SDF probably a Jurd, people are just about catching up what you have been says for years about Jurds, keep up, watch the 21 March it is no ordinary Purim, it is Purim on Equinox keep your investigative eyes and ears open as you see ages before most do

      Delete
    2. Disinfothama?

      Had that one's number years ago

      Delete
  7. Hey Penny, this isn't meant to be an endorsement but MoA had a good write up on thr US attempts to frame Iran as backing Usrael's Gladio proxy Al-Qaeda. The US appears to be seeking to use Pakistan as a spring board against Iran as evident from the recent attacks in Sistan-Balochistan.

    Link: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/02/iran-needs-to-talk-with-the-taliban.html

    The attavk in India may be an attempt to cause tension between India and China as well since Pakistan and China are so close; from what I know, Chinese-Indian tension was thawing. The Economic Times of India is already blaming China for the attack.

    Link: https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/view-countering-terrorism-depends-on-tackling-china/amp_articleshow/68058522.cms

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Anonymous:

    " US attempts to frame Iran as backing Usrael's Gladio proxy Al-Qaeda"

    That's been done before so I'm not surprised.

    I'd be inclined to see this as a third party instigation done through Pakistan.. for so many reasons.

    "Who wants India and Pakistan at each other’s throats? Hmmm.."

    "Pakistan's security service is interconnected with Usrael going back to the days of OBL- Mujaheddin and Afghanistan as well at to 9/11"

    With Iran being a targeted nation state it would be easy to use the border area as a place to attack

    Thanks for the comment and I will look at the links
    Create the chaos and then re order the region..

    ReplyDelete

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