Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Battle for Idlib: Turkey/Iran Cooperate? Russia/Syria Greenlight?

 After having read multiple claims that the battle for Idlib had started or was on the verge of starting for the past 7 months or so, when it clearly had not begun, here I am, still watching. Still waiting. Today there was yet another article- With a twist.  So maybe, just maybe a move is going to be made.

Idlibaholics

 There is, in my opinion, a consistency, across the board regarding persons who overly focus on the situation in Idlib as if it's the biggest issue, perhaps the only issue in Syria.While ignoring or downplaying the fact that one third of Syria is annexed and occupied by Usreal and it's proxy forces.  The consistency, to my mind, is that these Idlibaholics are part of the perception managing campaign around the remake the region agenda. Witting or unwitting? I don't know.

Let's face the reality.. that it was Russia and Syria that moved all the jihadis to Idlib. 
They surely had a reason for taking that type of action. I can't know what their reasoning is, but, I've long proposed a theory that they did this in partnership with Turkey to form a block to the Usrael Kurdish march across Syria's northern border/Turkey's south.

The Atlantic Council is Idlibaholic in it's presenation August 2018 

That should speak to us all about others who present Idlib as the 'big problem' facing Syria
It's also been long stated here that Idlib will have to be retaken in an orderly fashion to prevent Usreal's Kurdish forces from making there move west.

If we go back to August 2018, again, we notice that there are outposts belonging to the 3 Astana partners encircling Idlib. This reality, again, goes widely ignored by the Idlibaholics- I've yet to understand the purpose of ignoring this presence?
the map and outpost placement, again.
Accept that it doesn't fit with the 5 eyes agenda of demonising Turkey.  While obfuscating the Usreael proxy force annexation/occupation of Syria. If you ignore the Russian and Iranian presence then you can push a 'bad Turkey' meme. 

1- The yellow triangles: the Turkish observation points

2 – The red triangles: the Russian observation points
 
3 – Green Triangles, the Iranian observation points



Additionally the 5 eyes media, alt and main stream, same as the Idlibaholics, ignore, downplay or ridicule completely the Astana partnership... These are my observations.
So, now you're asking what's the point in rehashing this all?
Today, there is news that a "battle for Idlib" could take place. What makes this news a bit different, from all the earlier reports?  This time it's being reported that a joint effort to clear the area will be undertaken perhaps Syria and Turkey? Or perhaps Iran/Turkey? 
 If that is the case... Syria and Russia will have greenlighted this move.

The Battle for Idleb


"Original plans for an assault were postponed following talks between Russia and Turkey, but smaller skirmishes have continued since then writes Hashtag Syria.

Following the constant violations and the recent major attack carried out by terrorists in the Hama countryside, there is now no choice but to begin a real battle to repel these blatant violations—this is what the Foreign Ministry suggested in its latest statement. So will the battle soon begin?

Military analyst and expert, Kamal al-Jafa, told Hashtag Syria that the battle would be very soon and that the decision for this battle had been taken, but that orders for the army to begin the ground assault had not been given.

Jafa said that operations and clashes had been ongoing for more than two weeks during which the army was repelling strikes on the safe areas in the northern Hama countryside, but that what happened two days ago was the biggest operation to have been carried out by terrorists from “Ansar al-Tawheed” and “Jabhat al-Nusra al-Islam” during recent months. He noted that the army repelled this attack and regained most of the areas and points which it lost at the beginning. The result was that the map of control had not changed and there was no progress made by the armed groups in these areas.

The military expert said that the army had to repel this major breach carried out by the terrorist groups, who have been classified by every country of the region as well as America and Turkey as terrorists and who are under the command of Zawahiri. Therefore the military operation must begin, and very soon.

However, regarding the awaited battle for Idleb, Jafa said that this battle was still awaiting international agreement, noting that the political conditions had become ripe to begin, according to his estimation.

The military expert said that the battle for Idleb could coincide with a military operation which has been threatened by the Turkish army and is awaiting the zero hour, as suggested by Turkish politicians.

This operation, according to Jafa, would include Manbij and some areas where the SDF are deployed in northeastern Syria.
Yes, he is talking about a move that will see SAA and Turkey clearing different areas at the same time.
But wait, there's more!

Turkey and Iran will carry out Joint Ops Against Kurdish Rebels

This could be a move into Iraq? Not sure
"Turkey and Iran will carry out a joint operation against Kurdish rebels, Anadolu quoted Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu as saying on Wednesday. Soylu referred to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party listed as a terror group by Ankara and Western allies. The minister did not specify which PKK bases the planned operation would target.  In 2017, Erdogan said a joint Turkish-Iranian operation against Kurdish militants was “always on the agenda.” Despite backing opposing sides in the Syrian conflict, both neighbors have recently been working with Russia towards a political solution to the crisis."
Turkey says it will stage raids with Iran against Kurdish rebels


"Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu says Ankara and Tehran will stage joint raids against Kurdish rebels. 
Turkey and Iran will carry out a joint operation against Kurdish rebels, Ankara's interior minister has said, without specifying when or where the proposed offensive would take place"

  Should be interesting.

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