Speculative but interesting..
Read entirely at the link. I’m just excerpting a few paragraphs below:
“He (Erdogan) will soon be accepting a proposal put forth in January by Russian President Vladimir Putin, reviving the 1998 Adana Agreement between Syria and Turkey. It restores Syrian authority to the entire border but makes it obligatory for Damascus to make sure that it remains free of any Kurdish presence.Re-linking previous posts on this topic:
It gives Erdogan the right to send troops into Syrian territory in pursuit of Kurdish separatists, should the Syrians fail in doing the job. The agreement, however, only allows him to enter after coordinating with the Syrians and doesn’t give him the right to stay inside Syria”
The Russians and Turks are discussing an amendment to the original agreement, deploying Russian military police along the borderline, to make doubly sure that Turkish security concerns are accommodated
For that to happen, however, Syrian-Turkish relations need to be restored, after an 8-year suspension. Such an agreement requires security coordination, joint military committees and diplomatic relations between Ankara and Damascus. It also requires an end to the media war between the two countries
This part of the deal is being negotiated by the Iranians, whose foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, travelled between Damascus and Ankara April 16-17, carrying messages whose answers are to be revealed at the Nur-Sultan talks. ”
Three parties would have had to agree to one party leaving. To my knowledge this has never occurred. The agreement may not have been entirely honoured by more then on player, but, the agreement stands.
The Adana Agreement was originally signed to deal with the presence of PKK terrorists in Syria.
Iran signed on after the US destroyed Iraq.
It was already obligatory for Damascus, under that agreement, to ensure the border area remained free of PKK terrorists- not “Kurdish presence”
The newest amendment, if this report is accurate, would be the presence of Russian military police at the border. And this change would require the agreement of Syria, Russia, Iran and Turkey. As for cooperation? That’s already been going on. The media war between the two nations would have to end. It’s cooled down quite a bit for a while now.
Russian and Iranian Delegations Descend on Damascus
"Over the last few days, officials from Russia and Iran have carried out intensified visits to the Syrian capital in light of the ongoing discussions to end the dilemma of forming the Syrian constitutional committee, as well as other issues, as Moscow discusses the issue of “normalizing” relations between Arab countries and the Assad regimeThis upcoming week will be interesting.
On Saturday, the regime head Bashar al-Assad received Yury Borisov, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, who is also head of the Russian side of the Joint Russian-Syrian Committee for Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation. This came one day after a meeting between the regime head and a Russian delegation coming from Riyadh, led by Alexander Lavrentiev, the Russian president’s Special Envoy to Syria. This was after a visit by the Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, to Assad in Damascus on Tuesday, as the latest round of Astana talks are set to take place between Apr. 25-26, 2019.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the Russian delegation’s discussions with Bashar al-Assad concerned the issues that are part of the political settlement in Syria, “in accordance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254.” It said that: “special attention has been paid in this regard to the task of forming the constitutional committee and beginning its work as soon as possible.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the discussions also included: “arranging matters in Syria in the post-war period and normalizing Syrian relations with Arab countries.”
This Russian delegation’s visit to Damascus came one day after it had discussed Syria with the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman, who received the head of the Syrian Negotiations Committee, Nasr al-Hariri in the same delegation at Moscow’s embassy in the Saudi capital.
On Tuesday, the Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif visited Damascus and met with Assad before heading to Ankara, where he met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, where Zarif said that his country was working to, “restore relations to normal between all countries, including Turkey and Syria.”