Monday, May 20, 2019

Russian Ceasefire Likely Affords Temporary Delay in Idlib

   Agreed that this ceasefire is temporary- It looks, from where I'm sitting on the other side of the world, that SAA got done what it needed to do for now. Meanwhile Turkey and Russia negotiate..
See the earlier post from today.

I'm underlining and have placed an * beside the points that seem valid:
 Janes-*The Russian Ministry of Defence unilaterally announced a ceasefire in the opposition-held Idlib pocket on 19 May.
Previously- Syria: Army Declares Unilateral Ceasefire- Israel attacks. Again
 Previously- Turkey and Russia Negotiate to Reach a Ceasefire: Idlib/Syria
Janes: *This followed a limited advance by government forces into northern Hama province in recent weeks, in which the government captured the town of Kafr Nabouda and neighbouring villages, reportedly displacing around 150,000 civilians.

   *The Syrian government's military objective in Idlib is most likely to recapture the M4 and M5 highways and the Sahl al-Ghab valley.
*The Syrian government does not have the military capacity to retake and hold all remaining opposition-held territories in northwestern Syria in a conventional operation.
It is instead likely to rely on the indiscriminate use of airstrikes, artillery, and potentially chlorine, to drive out the civilian population and stoke up a catastrophic humanitarian crisis that will make it increasingly difficult for the opposition to hold ground and ultimately force the opposition and its sponsor  (I do think that) Turkey (is) into negotiating a political settlement on the Syrian government's (and Russia's) terms. (Terms that all three parties will agree to and comply with)
*Offensive ground operations by the Syrian government will most likely focus on capturing areas of strategic value, such as the M4 and M5 highways, which connect Syria's economic capital of Aleppo to Latakia and Homs, and the fertile agricultural land of the Sahl al-Ghab valley.

   * The progress of military action in Idlib is partially dependent on ongoing negotiations between Turkey and Russia over other regional issues.
As critical military sponsors of the Syrian government and armed opposition, respectively, *Russia and Turkey are likely to use their influence over the conflict in Idlib to strengthen their respective negotiating positions on other regional issues, such as the fate of Kurdish-held northeastern Syria, and Turkey's acquisition of Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile system.
*The success of any Syrian government offensive into Idlib relies on Russian approval and air support. Russia is likely to enable and, if necessary, halt the progress of the government's offensive in line with Turkey's willingness or ability to accede to Russian demands on other issues.
 There's been a whole lot of coverage here on Hama/Idlib, recently. Syria and all that it entails have been a core topic at this blog since 2011.


  1. Syria: Blow by Blow 4- Hama to Idlib

  2. US Backed Kurds Kill Protestors- Idlib/Hama Update

  3. "Russia and Turkey landgrab 'behind fresh Syria bombardment' "

  4. Syria: Blow by Blow 3- Idlib, Opening Highways/Taking Higher Ground?
  5. Syria: Blow by Blow Updated

  6. Syria: Blow by Blow

1 comment:

  1. Hey all- yah the long week end- took a break as much as possible

    If you've been following along with my lamenting the cold weather and giant natural gas home heating bill
    I did leave this comment for geofish

    Blogger Penny said...

    Hey Harold:

    yah last night was cold- the heat ran in the house and...
    so much for "global warming" we've used nearly 50 percent more natural gas to heat our home this year- compared to last year- this is because it's been cold for so long now...
    and it's going to be cold tonight 6C or 43 F- so the heat will run - we've turned it down quite low, but, this is just ridiculous!

    I mean, come on!

    2018- we used 141m3
    2019- 200m3

    No garden planting this week end- soil is cold and wet.
    Hubby roto-tilled (hopes of drying soil) back later in the day to do shovel work- wet and cold soil (heavy!)
    Everything is covered with tarps in hopes of warming and drying the soil...
    We need some sun and some warm. Consistent warm to heat the soil- I'd say unless it warms up quite a bit, we'll be looking at our latest garden start- EVER!

    We've had our home and garden for 27 years- yah, I notice the change and it's not warmer!!!