Thursday, May 30, 2019

Syria/ Idlib: No Fly Zone Negotiations,Turkey, Russia, PKK & Operation Claw....

First up,  Idlib & Syria as a whole :

I've maintained that the Idlib operation is limited in scope. Time wise. Geographically. There is a specific goal. ( Securing highways- talked about this numerous times) Once attained the operation will stop. A whole pile of Idlib posts will be relinked at the bottom of this latest report.

1:   US Official: Russia Unlikely to Support Full-Scale Offensive on Syria's Idlib
 "Our conversations with the Russians have not indicated that the Russians are ready to support a full-scale offensive into Idlib," U.S. Special Representative for Syria James Jeffrey told reporters. "They tell us that this is only a limited set of military operations against specific terrorists."
2:  US, Russia discuss peace plan that would end Syria's isolation
The United States and Russia are in talks on a "potential way forward" that would see Syria come out of international isolation if it agrees to a series of steps including a ceasefire in Idlib, the US envoy for Syria said Wednesday.
Jim Jeffrey told reporters following a closed-door UN Security Council meeting that Moscow and Washington were exploring a "step by step approach" to ending the eight-year war, but that this would require "hard decisions."
3:  Russia Calls for Lifting Sanctions on Syrian Regime

Once the highways are secured (that is the M4 and M5) sanctions being lifted would go a long way to kick starting Syria's economy, rebuilding and getting people back to work.

Russia has urged the international community to support the withdrawal of US troops from Syria and launch a massive campaign to end US and European sanctions against Damascus.

The Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday described the US presence in Syria as a “direct support for illegal gangs," saying it “impedes the restoration of peaceful life in Syria.”

“We [Russia and Syria] urge the United States and the European Union to lift anti-Syrian economic sanctions. Such restrictive measures do not contribute to solving urgent humanitarian and socio-economic problems in Syria,” said the statement, which was signed by the Russian-Syrian joint coordination headquarters.
Read the rest of #3 link because it covers the numerous problems at the refugee camps including the one in Kurdish run Syrian territory-
"The Ministry noted that the situation is even worse in al-Hol camp in the territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces in al-Hasakah province."
“More than 73,000 people are living in terrifying conditions in al-Hol.”
That's been discussed here previously. The PKK kurds take UN money to run the camp- and don't use it to run the camp. At all. Situation worse at al- Hol then at Rukban? Unimaginable to me.  But not a shocker. Since it's well KNOWN that the Kurds are far from egalitarian do gooders. Despite the spin.

NO Fly Zone to Protect Annexed Syrian Territory? 

The annexed territory already contains at least 7 American bases. Including one that is more then 500 acres. Just one base. Making a no fly zone a real possibility.

2018 Flashback:  Is The US Pivoting the Fight In Syria Toward A War With Iran? YES!
 "The largest American military base in Syria covers more than five hundred acres, but it can’t be seen from the road"
"a vast encampment spread out before us. The perimeter was constructed of dirt berms, sod-filled gabions, and razor wire. The runway was more than a mile long, and sunk below grade, so that planes would seem to disappear as they landed"
1:  Telegraph- Germany and US in Talks for No Fly Zone
"Germany is reportedly in talks with the US to provide military aircraft to patrol a safe zone in northern Syria proposed by Donald Trump.

Angela Merkel’s government has been in secret talks the US over the plans for several months, according to Spiegel magazine.

The proposals could see German Tornado fighters patrolling Syrian air space to protect the country’s Kurds from attack by Isil or Turkey"
Or by the SAA as they attempt to take back stolen territory? 

2: From earlier this year- Occupying Kurds want Germany to Create No Fly Zone
"Murad told Kurdistan 24 that the Syrian Kurds are happy with Kiesewetter’s proposal, but added this should actually be carried out.

“The German government should act to establish this no-fly zone. Why Germany? Because it is big and has its influence in the EU and world,” he explained.

Murad said Germany could play a role in ending the civil war in Syria.

“The German government should take [the proposal] seriously and we hope that it will use its relationship with the US and others to achieve this,” he said."
This German involvement in a no fly zone is not a new development- A visiting German politician broached this subject with occupying PKK forces months ago

 Let's talk Turkey...

There's a whole lot of US/Israeli/Saudi/ Egyptian spin regarding Turkey's involvement in Syria.
An astute commenter here a while back noticed this push to associate Turkey with AQ/Muslim 
Brotherhood.  (comment and exchange available in comment section here) I'm not getting into this entire history- There are books and books on the subject- Except to say that MB is and has historically been associated with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. As well as various western intelligence organizations. MI6 and CIA. Same for AQ.
 Therefore when one reads claims made that Turkey is supporting the entire terror contingency in Idlib- one should think about which parties ( US, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) would promote this ideology due to the fact they wish to see a weakened Turkey that cannot challenge their perceived regional authority AND keep in mind all four parties ( US, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) have been propping up the PKK in the stolen Syrian territory

Turkey does support some of the terrorists in Idlib- But not all of them
Yes, Turkey has their own factions in Syria. Like everyone else Turkey has interests in the settlement of the Syrian situation. Interests like not have a PKK terror state at the border.
 This is not a condoning of Turkey's role. It's just real politik in action. I'm adult enough to accept this. Not like it. Just accept it.  Realistically speaking, I've no influence in this great game.  Observing and informing through reading and discernment is the extent of my role in all this.

1:   Idlib Gov't Chief Urges Turkey to Step Up Efforts in Idlib
“We hope that the Turkish side will ... defend these positions they set up and the areas they entered and prevent Russian and Syrian jets from flying in the areas where they are present, and the shelling of surrounding areas,” Hilal said.
Hilal told Reuters, adding that Ankara should clarify “their role and what they want from these positions.”
If you believed the propagandists you'd already think Turkey was running the place- That's not the reality.  Hope and clarification about Anakara's role? That certainly DOES NOT read like unfettered support. I've, in fact, found Turkey to be quite quiet regarding Idlib. Yes they want the fighting to stop- They don't want to be flooded with more Syrian refugees. But, over all they've been pretty nonchalant. Which is the opposite of what I'd expect from them if they were so desirous of Idlib. Turkey has other operations, ongoing, that are more pressing for their territorial integrity
 Turkey's Operation Into Northern Iraq- Impeding US partnering with PKK terrorists-

 Operation Claw to pave way for Turkey’s military campaign against PKK in Syria

As Operation Claw in Northern Iraq gains speed, Turkey’s military campaign is set to deal a great blow to U.S. support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), putting an end to the route used to send supplies to terrorists
A 2500-strong force consisting of Turkish commandos, which will later increase to 6,000, is currently detecting and destroying PKK shelters, hideouts, caves and munition depots.
By establishing security along the Hakurk-Duhok-Zap line, Turkey will sever the land connection of the U.S., which supplies the PKK with medicine, food, weapons and ammunition, to the terror group.
Northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains have been a haven for PKK terrorists over the past few decades. Considered as the main base of the PKK, which control checkpoints and entrances to the mountains, the structuring in the area is used for cover and concealment by terrorists.
 The expectation, by extension, would be to cut the PKK off from their US/Iraqi supplies into Syria.

In closing the situation in the region is complex. With multiple interests at play. Black and white presentation of do gooders vs villains is misleading. By design.

Idlib Refresher (Recent Material)
*Russian Ceasefire Likely Affords Temporary Delay in Idlib
  1. Syria: Blow by Blow 4- Hama to Idlib

  2. US Backed Kurds Kill Protestors- Idlib/Hama Update

  3. "Russia and Turkey landgrab 'behind fresh Syria bombardment' "

  4. Syria: Blow by Blow 3- Idlib, Opening Highways/Taking Higher Ground?
  5. Syria: Blow by Blow Updated

  6. Syria: Blow by Blow

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