Saturday, May 2, 2020

CDC: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) is 37,308.

"Understanding the Numbers: Provisional Death Counts and COVID-19

Provisional death counts deliver our most comprehensive picture of lives lost to COVID-19. These estimates are based on death certificates, which are the most reliable source of data and contain information not available anywhere else, including comorbid conditions, race and ethnicity, and place of death.

How it works

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) uses incoming data from death certificates to produce provisional COVID-19 death counts. These include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia. COVID-19 deaths are identified using a new ICD–10 code. When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death – or when it is listed as a “probable” or “presumed” cause — the death is coded as U07.1. This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation.

Repeating: This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation.

Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths."

Start at the bottom table:   The First death from Covid occurred Feb 08/20. The total deaths attributed to Covid/ Covid 19 deaths (coded as such) total 37,308 

37,308 is vastly less then the commonly bandied about number which is more then 65,780.

If I use the counter at Trading Economics the figure is 65,782. John Hopkins is reporting higher numbers, just slightly higher then the CDC's , quick tally of about 40,000.

The population of the US sits at 327, 167,434


  1. Thinking about what Gwen said in the previous post:

    GwenMay 2, 2020 at 6:03 PM

    Gwen "I'm of the opinion that Covid1984 is a mutation of the seasonal flu virus. "

    Look at the chart above- see the number for seasonal flu
    It's incredibly, unbelievably low at 5846.

    As long as I've written this blog, covering both covid, swine flu and general flu vaccine coverage I've NEVER read such a low number.
    Not even for Canada- where we have 1/10 the population.

    If we read here, taking note of the altered numbers for 2017/2018- we can still see this

    "This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the 2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths.

    Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

    this year being 2019/2020

    2017/2018= 61,000 (severe)

    Gwen is not along in thinking the flu season has been combined with covid- I've mentioned that myself as had Greencrow and Greg Bacon in a more extensive manners
    If Yaya or North did I can't recall, but, this idea has been mentioned and it appears to be valid
    2018/2019 = 34,200 (moderate)

    but in the 2019/2020 season which has not ended influenza fatalities sit at 5,846
    while covid fatalities sit at 37,308
    combined they total up to just over 43,000. 43,154 to be specific-
    That doesn't even combing to a bad influenza season- certainly not pandemic levels aka spanish flu

    something is just not right

  2. Hi Penny: Thanks very much for this additional confirmation of what I've suspected all along. Now we also need to factor this in. The Boomers...the biggest demographic group in human history...are aging year after year. Every year more and more of us will die in greater numbers. The "flu" is usually the disease that carries off the aged.

    So they're piggy-backing the Covid-19 numbers onto the demographic "Boomer bump" that's travelling through the body of the demographic snake...just before we get pooped out at the end. Well...I never !!!

    1. Hey GC:
      did you notice this?

      "When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death – or when it is listed as a “probable” or “presumed” cause — the death is coded as U07.1. This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation."

      This can include cases without laboratory confirmation.

      Which suggest that the numbers of actual, real, tested covid are lower. If you also consider the problems with the testing including giving false positives it may drive the number lower still.

  3. And in medical history data this year will be an incredible year for low influenza rate, which means we will continue to live this lie.

    I read this post to my husband, and he just gave a dark chuckle.

    Consider all the work you (and others) have put into looking up alternative viewpoints, data, etc. Granted this takes plenty of your time to put it into a blog post, but consider that nearly anyone could look up just basic information and rub two brain cells together and voila!, something smells fishy.

    This has certainly been a rousing success for them and just think, all the awful fallout hasn't happened yet. I bet they rub they're hands in glee.

    1. "but consider that nearly anyone could look up just basic information and rub two brain cells together and voila!, something smells fishy."

      I've said that time and time again to my husband- anyone can take the time to search- they don't have to write, they just have to inform themselves

  4. I know you're aware of this dark entity: Tavistock Institute. Did you know they have this program?:

    Look at all the MSM places with "dreaming and Covid19" as a subject:

    It looks to me like we are rats in a very large experiment.

    1. Gwen:
      "It looks to me like we are rats in a very large experiment."

      Yes, and it's clear they want us scared, angry and hostile to one another- we have to not engage in that behaviour

  5. Hi Penny, thanks for your great informative posts on the era we're now living in!

    Lies, damn lies, and statistics is a great quote to bring up during this crazy time where we literally cannot believe anything anymore... Everyday I hear different things coming out... losing faith is an understatement! Also, 'I fear for the future' use to be a sort of 'joke quote' … now it's, well, real!

    1. Hi Marie

      You're welcome and yes, lies, dam lies and more dam lies oops I forgot the statistics -hehehe

      I'm thinking about ways we have to change up the presentation of this big social experiment..

      There is a lot of anger out there. I was at the grocery store and the young cashier told me to customers started to fight one another over social distancing
      She said lately customers have been very hostile towards her- she was glad I was nice.
      I was glad that I didn't add to her stress load
      There is no need for that type of behaviour.
      People got to keep it real.

  6. This is a very interesting find, Penny. The plausible transfer of deaths from one column to another to pump up the number of covid deaths is something like the fraud of kiting cheques. In both cases there is a grave moral deficit involved. No wonder some of us are calling this a scamdemic.

    Someone asked me when is this going to end and I said it will only end IF or WHEN they want it to end. It's whatever and whenever serves their agenda and the only thing that spells end to them is vaccine. They can stack the stats as easily as a deck of cards. There's so much inconsistency (tests used, test accuracies, covid criterias) between various geographical regions that one simply can't get a clear picture of what's going on and that's exactly the way they want it. (For instance, in Italy, did they ever adjust those high covid death numbers after they determined there were deaths WITH covid and deaths FROM covid? I don't think they did.) -- M. Rocknest

    1. Hey M Rocknest

      They can stack the stats and it's clear they are doing just that!

      I wonder if Italy did take the time to go through their stats?
      Should I come across anything I'll post it here.

    2. I think we can safely say they did NOT adjust those high covid death numbers in Italy.

      "Vittorio Sgarbi, denounces the closure of 60% of the businesses for 25,000 COVID-19 Deaths, of which the National Institute of Health says 96.3% died NOT of COVID-19 but of other pathologies. That means only 925 have died of the virus. 24,075 have died of other things.
      He says false statistics are being use to terrorize the citizens of Italy and establish a dictatorship. He makes his statements on the vigil of April, 25, which celebrates the liberation of Italy by the Allied powers in World War II."

      All we need to do is look at the WorldOMeters data and graphs which currently show 28,884 deaths.

      -- M. Rocknest