Sunday, November 8, 2020

3rd update: Nagarno Karabakh: Azerbaijan Retrieves Shusha. Armenia must negotiate. Possible Turkish/Russian Peacekeepers

 We ended Part 2 covering the reports that Azerbaijan has taken back Shusha. It is Shusha to them. Aliyev announced it to the populace. Baku erupted in cheers and flag waving.

 

Azerbaijani people celebrate after Shusha city liberated from Armenia's occupation, on 8 November 2020 in Baku, Azerbaijan. [Resul Rehimov - Anadolu Agency]

“If the Armenian leadership does not respond to our demands [withdrawal of occupying forces from the region], we will go till the end,” Aliyev said in his speech in the Alley of Martyrs in the capital Baku.

 If Shusha has been returned to Azerbiajan (and going by all reports this does look to be the case)  Armenia is left in a poor position to continue this fighting. They are at the disadvantage that Azerbaijan was when Armenia began it's occupation decades ago. In a way it's come full circle. It didn't have to be this way. Armenia could have negotiated time and time again to settle this issue without mass destruction and loss of life. Armenia's leadership choose not to. This has all been covered here previously. Go back and read those reports including Pashinian's snubbing of Lavrov.

 Pashinyan refused to follow a plan elaborated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to finally settle the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh mess.

As was noted in the October 06 report:

NATO lackey Pashinyan refused to follow a peace plan elaborated by Sergey Lavrov? Russia will keep that in mind when dealing with Mr Globalist (a fact, again, that is just not mentioned or downplayed)

 If you've been paying attention you will have noticed that Russia was not standing beside Armenia. Russia has no obligation to stand by Armenia's occupation of Nagarno Karabakh

 Secondly, Pashinian is a creature of western NGO's and George Soros. He has not been an honest partner for Russia. Just the facts. And these facts explain the sitting on the sidelines we've witnessed Russia engaging in, in my opinion.

 Taking into consideration the probable return of Shusha and other territories to Azerbaijan. The fact that Russia, Iran and Turkey as well as Azerbaijan have all wanted a diplomatic settlement the news below will only come 'out of the blue' to those that have been inhaling too much Armenian disinfo. In fact, what is being reported on, was an idea that had been entertained here nearly two weeks ago:

Possible Outcomes?

1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!

2- Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.

An Astana 2.0 if you like?

 November 08/20: EXCLUSIVE: Azerbaijan, Armenia 'near ceasefire deal' on Nagorno-Karabakh

Draft deal forces Armenia to withdraw from some areas amid the deployment of a Turkish and Russian peacekeeping force, Turkish sources tell MEE

Azerbaijan and Armenia are close to striking a meaningful ceasefire deal over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding regions which have been occupied by Armenia since 1992, Turkish sources have told Middle East Eye.

The deal will mandate Armenia to cede a large chunk of territory while placing a Turkish and Russian peacekeeping mission in the area.

On Sunday, Azerbaijan announced it had captured Shusha, Nagorno-Karabakh's second-largest city, a claim Armenia denied.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, reached an understanding on the components of a draft deal on Saturday in a phone call, the sources said.

You should recall this phone call was mentioned in Part 1 of this latest series?

The details were discussed by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in a subsequent phone conversation.

Two corridors likely to be established

According to the draft deal, Armenia will immediately withdraw from five out of seven occupied raions (a type of administrative unit of several post-Soviet states) surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, once both sides agree to the conditions of the truce.

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Yerevan will pull out from the remaining two raions in 15 days. The draft deal does not require Baku to leave its recently captured territories, but would put a halt to Azerbaijan's offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, which is now partly controlled by Baku.

In a significant move, both sides will possibly agree to the establishment of two corridors.

One road leading from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh would initially ensure Yerevan's access to the region. Armenia, in return, will allow the creation of a second corridor which would connect the Azerbaijan territory of Nakhcivan to Baku.

The Turkish and Russian peacekeeping forces would then be deployed to uphold the ceasefire.

"The Azerbaijani government doesn't want to rapidly seize [the city of] Khankendi [Stepanakert in Armenian] and cause civilian casualties," one of the Turkish sources said.

"This deal stops the possible humanitarian crisis while honouring the legitimate Azerbaijani demands on the territory."

 As I'd written weeks ago- This was a definite possibility. Let's hope Armenia's leadership finally accepts diplomacy and negotiated settlement. Their populace has paid a very high price for Pashinian's arrogance.

Additionally I'd like to see Iran have a role in peacekeeping. And, think they probably will. Also, it seems worth considering that Turkey and Russia may have had this ceasefire deal worked out prior to this week end.

2 comments:

  1. your analysis as usual is second to none, you have consistently been right about this conflict.

    Hans

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Hans

      As usual, you can see my analysis is pretty much the outlier to the thoughtless pack. Which is why it's second to none! :))
      And has been closer to correct then the other 'alt media' spin sites.
      Which is okay. I'd rather it that way.

      Delete

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