Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Armenian Losses Lead to Inevitable Three Party Ceasefire Agreement

  Once Azerbaijan took back Shusha, Armenia’s chance to re occupy territory that Azeribaijan had taken back, pretty much evaporated. It would have been much smarter had US lackey Pashinian negotiated a settlement for the return of the territories years ago. But, encouraged by the US and France, undoubtedly,  he didn’t.
Is this conflict over? Can’t be sure. The placement of peacekeepers will help. There are reports Russia is sending peacekeepers in. And there is still talk of Turkish peacekeepers. Notice Russia sat on the sidelines through this all? They let the inevitable play out. For a number of reasons. 

But one was certainly the duplicitous of Pashinian.

I'd covered the possibility of this arrangement a couple of days ago:

If you haven't read that report, feel free to do so now. Pashinian's dishonest ways have been covered more then once here.


The Russian president announced what the warring parties committed themselves to peace agreement, reports Sputnik.

1. The ceasefire takes effect at midnight on November 10, Moscow time.

2. Azerbaijan and Armenia will remain in their current positions.

3. Armenia and Azerbaijan will exchange prisoners of war.

4. In Karabakh, along the contact line and along the corridors connecting Armenia and Karabakh, Russian peacekeepers will be deployed - a total of 1960 people with small arms, 90 armored personnel carriers and 380 other vehicles and specialist equipment.

5. All transport nodes will be unblocked.

6. Russian peacekeepers will be deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian army. The Russian contingent will remain in Nagorno-Karabakh for the next five years, which will be automatically extended if neither side requests their withdrawal within six months before the deadline.

7. To ensure the effective implementation of everything agreed, the peacekeepers will form a center to monitor compliance with the ceasefire.

8. Armenia will return the Kelbajar region to Azerbaijan by November 15, and Lachin by December 1, while the Lachin corridor (5 kilometers wide) will remain in the hands of Armenians, in order to ensure the connection between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, without affecting the status of Shusha. In addition, Armenia must hand over Agdam and part of the Gaza region of Azerbaijan, which it currently holds, by November 20.

9. In the next three years, a plan will be developed for the construction of a new road along the Lachin corridor, which will provide a connection between Stepanakert and Armenia, and a Russian contingent will be deployed on it. Azerbaijan will guarantee the safety of transportation in the Lacin Corridor to all civilians.

10. The refugees will return to their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh, which will be controlled by the UN High Representative for Refugees.

11. All economic and traffic connections in the region will be unblocked. Armenia will provide traffic connections between the western parts of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with the goal of allowing free flow of people, goods and services in all directions. The control will be performed by Russian border troops. According to the agreement, new roads will be built between the western parts of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

Addressing the nation, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called the statement of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia on the ceasefire in Karabakh historic. He emphasized the special role of Russia in resolving the crisis and pointed out that its role in the region will continue to be important. He also announced that Russia and Turkey will jointly carry out peacekeeping activities in Karabakh.

Earlier, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nicole Pashinyan, announced that he had signed a joint statement on the ceasefire with the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.

The thirteenth and fourteenth Il-76 planes carrying Russian peacekeepers are heading to Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday.

"The thirteenth and fourteenth Il-76 military transport aircraft with Russian peacekeepers have taken off from the Ulyanovsk-Vostochny airfield," the ministry said. "The planes are carrying the personnel of the peacekeeping unit, materiel and armored personnel carriers."

 I'd suspected this ceasefire was agreed to prior to it’s announcement. When Shusha was retrieved Armenia agreed. Armenia denied and denied on Sunday, but, on Monday they announced Shusha was under Azerbaijani control and the ceasefire was announced there after. The timeline speaks of the reality.

"We have lost control of Shushi on November 5, and complete control on November 7. We did not want to believe that we were losing the homeland completely. We did not want to believe that it was impossible to fight with the existing resources and human equipment that existed," said the Artsakh President.
               


 "The United States and France have not participated in reaching agreements on the Nagorno-Karabakh [(Artsakh)] issue; this is a trilateral agreement between Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The statement came from Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, RIA Novosti reported.

"This is a trilateral statement," Peskov said when asked if the US and France had participated in reaching agreements on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue."

                               
There is unhappiness in Armenia withe the deal

Angry protests broke out in Armenia's capital Yerevan in the early hours of Tuesday, with calls for the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan after he agreed a deal to end the conflict with Azerbaijan over breakaway enclave Nagorno-Karabakh.

Recall this report from Saturday?  Nagarno Kharabak Updates: Shushi/Shusha, Tank Losses/Electronic Warfare, Overthrowing Pashinian? Part 1
“Meanwhile, an expert on international conflicts Yevgeny Mikhailov notes that if a coup is brewing in Armenia, then Prime Minister Pashinyan has nowhere to run, the Armenian people will get him everywhere."

Overthrowing Pashinian? It could happen.

As usual the so called alternative media provided some of the sloppiest analysis of this situation I’ve ever had the misfortune of reading.  As usual the anti imperial media continues to give the US and France, in particular France, a free pass for their foul machinations in this situation. That didn’t occur here. Thanks to Hans for the nice compliment.

UPDATE: Iran looks pleased with the arrangement.

Iran welcomes Armenia-Russia-Azerbaijan pact on Karabakh

In a statement on Tuesday, The ministry expressed hope that the agreement would lead to the final arrangements for long-lasting peace in the Caucasus region.

It emphasized the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries, imposing no change in official international borders, freedom of the occupied territories, return of refugees to their homelands, respecting the security and rights of minorities as well as ousting Takfiri terrorists and foreign fighters from the region.

Iran also reaffirmed its readiness to contribute to the establishment of permanent peace and security in the region and also to participate in regional initiatives.

In accordance with articles III and IV of the ceasefire agreement, the Islamic Republic of Iran also declares its readiness to assist in the deployment of peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation, the statement added. 

I've been hoping Iran would be a participant- A regional solution is what's been needed.

your analysis as usual is second to none, you have consistently been right about this conflict.

Hans

Thanks Hans

As usual, you can see my analysis is pretty much the outlier to the thoughtless pack. Which is why it's second to none! :))
And has been closer to correct then the other 'alt media' spin sites.
Which is okay. I'd rather it that way.

Remember, remember...

6 comments:


  1. Iran is looking to play a peace keeping role which should surprise no one.

    Turkey and Azerbaijan are looking to form a peacekeeping team that will coordinate with Russia ( and likely Iran)

    https://in.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-turkey/azeri-turkish-leaders-discuss-creating-joint-russian-turkish-karabakh-peacekeeping-centre-sputnik-idINKBN27Q2JE

    or

    https://112.international/politics/turkey-to-join-peacekeeping-mission-in-karabakh-azerbaijani-president-56355.html

    "Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has stated that Turkish peacekeepers would also be stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh. He said this during a video conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Interfax reports.

    "There will be a joint peacekeeping mission between Russia and Turkey. This is going to be a new format," Aliyev said."

    I'll add this to the body of the post.

    Western anglo imperialists seem less then pleased
    Just check the news
    France is blah, blah, blahing.
    And surely the US is managing behind the scenes.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I forced myself to stop and Saker's and left this comment

    "The ceasefire was likely agreed to prior to the helicopter shoot down-
    Considering Shusha/i was retrieved by Azerbaijan Nov.5 and fully controlled on November 7/20
    The Armenians can blame Russia all they want- They can make a plausibe case for that, but, it's irrelevant.
    The fault lies 100 percent with Armenia- They could have settled this, under Pashinian, in 2018.
    Pashinian rebuffed Russia's Lavrov. Undoubtedly Pashinian was egged on by France and the US.
    The Armenians choose to "poop in their nest" instead of getting along with their neighbours

    There is little to no chance the firing on the Russian helicopter was "instigated" in any way by Turkey.
    That's the stuff of rubbish, because there is absolutely no reason to think it so.
    Turkey has a deal for peace keeping. They had it prior to the shoot down. I don't doubt that for a minute based on the time line.

    Additionally, I had suggested this type of possible settlement for Nagarno Kharabak back when the 3rd ceasefire was faltering

    "-Possible Outcomes?

    1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!

    2- Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.

    An Astana 2.0 if you like?"
    http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2020/10/3rd-ceasefire-faltering-in-nagarno.html

    Had the Anglo's got around to recognizing Artsakh... then we can be sure all heck would have broken loose

    Great comment from Afterthought

    " Afterthought on November 10, 2020 · at 7:06 pm EST/EDT

    What now is that Armenians need to jettison the New World Order and become good friends with their actual neighbors, Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, especially in light of the New Silk Road and Asian Landmass Economic Integration."

    That's exactly what they need to do. But will they? Or do to many Armenians have stars in their eyes (literally and figuratively) to see the folly of their own ways. Are they overly dazzled by all that glitters?


    Of course it has to be moderated. And Saker has some strange moderation parameters.. Or strange interpretations, whichever?
    Saker still insists on sticking with South Front- I find them to be 100 percent disinformation. Intentionally so. You will never find South Front's trash here at PFYT's

    ReplyDelete
  3. Oooh, eerie - 11 peace points! To go into effect at the very moment that Nov. 11 begins. 11-11.

    Just letting you know I'm wearing a white t-shirt ;-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wore my white sweatshirt today and distributed little leaflets that said

      Stay out of fear
      Take back your power

      I let Olive Farmer know as well
      And will continue leaving my memes about..

      Delete
  4. Got your note at my place. I had to have emergency dentistry done today, and have been recuperating since. You're very brave to have confronted people with this. "Stay out of fear": I like that.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Mairon

    " warning of the danger of penetration of Jihadists into Russia proper"

    From Syria? Because of Turkey? I'm not sure how you failed to notice the abundance of jihadists in Chechnya.

    Dagestan.
    Georgia (Pankisi Gorge)

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36035312

    https://theintercept.com/2015/07/09/mujahedeensvalley/

    from where many jihadists orginated who entered Syria via Kurdish territory in Iraq

    I could provide more links, but, you might want to check out a map and take a bit of time to research and understand that jihadists (so called) have been at Russia's door and for that matter have attacked Russia on numerous previous ocassions.
    Including a rather large attack in 2010
    Another one in 2017
    Actually this Washington Post article includes a time line of attacks some decades old

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/03/the-recent-history-of-terrorist-attacks-in-russia/

    I'd think Saker would be familiar with some of these?

    placed here for the record

    ReplyDelete

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