Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Belarus and Russia - A gas war ?

What is going on here and why? Is this going to effect the EU?

There was news on this going back to the beginning of 2010. At that time it looked as if the dispute was heading towards a settlement.
Russia-Belarus Gas dispute may be ending soon

An agreement for 2010 between Moscow and Minsk to settle disputes over Russian oil transits is pending, the Russian energy minister said. Tensions escalated in the first week of 2010 over Russian oil transits with both sides offering varying accounts of the status of talks for the price of this year's oil.

But, six months later things have heated up again.

Here is the latest.

The reduction is just starting to effect the EU.

-A dispute between Russia and Belarus over natural gas spilled into the European Union for the first time Wednesday when supplies to Lithuania were cut. Lithuania relies almost entirely on Russia for gas supplies piped via Belarus and also acts as transit route for gas to Kaliningrad.

Some contributing factors in the gas war.

The dispute heats up right before Medvedev visits the US-

Medvedev is heading to the US this week trying to show that the government is much more focused on trying to improve the business climate and the dispute with Belarus is obviously a huge embarrassment.”

Embarrassing and or pressuring Medvedev?

Then you have Krgyzstsan???

A tug of war going on there between Western and Russian interests?

Belarus is sheltering the ousted leader. Krgyzstan wants him back

Prosecutor-General's Office of Belarus refused a Kyrgyz request to extradite Kurmanbek S. Bakiyev, Interfax informs.

Earlier, President of Belarus promised not to extradite Bakiyev, moreover, he named the Kyrgyz request, issued on 6 May, as hopeless and humiliating. Minsk refused to give any comments.

Krgyzstan is home to a coveted air base

The United States has to tread carefully in responding to the conflict, Commercio says, or it risks being evicted from the Manas airbase it leases in northern Kyrgyzstan, a transit point for U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Krgyzstan is a nation divided. The Northern part, where the Manas air base is located is not so infatuated with Bakiyev. The Southern part of Krgyzstan is stauncher in their support for the ousted leader.

So the situation in Krgyzstan, the tossing out of Bakiyev, the safe haven offered in Belarus could all be factors in the heating up of the gas war, which looked to be settled at the start of 2010.

Not to be left out of the big picture is the political situation in Poland.

"Even if gas stops flowing from Belarus and the Yamal pipeline, deliveries from Ukraine and reserves in storage facilities will be enough to keep gas flowing without disruptions to Polish private and industrial customers," he said.

Elections ongoing there. Will the winner of the election see Ukrainian supplies continue?
Or could Poland suffer shortages with the Belarus dispute?

There is probably even more to this then I have posted. Nothing is ever so simplistic.
Politics is always a factor in these types of disputes. Infact, sometimes politics is the main factor and price is secondary. Hard to say what is really going on. Another move on the chessboard in the game of some get rich and many, many more of the fodder die.


  1. Two other factors, Penny, are the Zionists in Belarus (and Kyrgyzstan and the Ukraine -past and present) and the otherwise uneconomic Nambucco pipeline.

  2. thanks james

    after I put up the post, I started thinking, I should have added Uzbekistan also.

    but then I thought, well, if I have at least given a reader the idea that there is generally far more to these types of disputes then the simplistic offerings of the msm I will have accomplished something.

    (the zionists seem to be a factor everywhere, bunch of nutjobs, in the US, Canada, something about that ideology.....)