Friday, April 26, 2013

Israel: Flippin & Floppin' on Syria alleged chemical weapon use?

I notice there are more then a couple articles questioning why Israel dropped the chemical weapon meme bomb? What is up with this second guessing?  Admitting to being a bit stumped and having to think this over... So, anyone with some relevant thoughts, leave them..

Brig. Gen. Itai Brun, head of the IDF Military Intelligence research and analysis division.


Why did the IDF’s top analyst drop his Syria WMD bombshell?

Was Itai Brun’s public declaration that Assad’s forces have used nerve gas an effort to push US intervention? Or was it an extraordinary gaffe?

The IDF’s top intelligence analyst spoke about the international community and the way its leaders are “sucked” into the Middle East maelstrom against their will. He spoke about the changing nature of the global jihad now that some of its more powerful elements have taken root along Israel’s borders. He mentioned the rise of Islamist ideology — its surprising practicality — and the widening role of Qatar in the Sunni camp.

 And then, after speaking too about Iran and the challenges of intelligence work in the age of the Arab Spring, he dropped his bombshell: “To the best of our professional understanding, the regime has used lethal chemical weapons,” he said of President Bashar Assad’s Syria, noting that the IDF believed the toxic element was Sarin, a nerve agent far more deadly than cyanide, and that it had been used on more than one occasion, including in a specific attack on March 19.

The US, both before and after Brun’s statement, has gone out of its way to avoid making that kind of declaration. “We are looking for conclusive evidence, if it exists, if there was use of chemical weapons,” Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, said later Tuesday.
  In Brussels, Secretary of State John Kerry rushed to declare that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “not in a position to confirm” Brun’s assessment. 

 In Cairo on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said he was caught by surprise by the expert IDF analyst’s definitive statement. ”They did not give me that assessment,” he said. “I guess it was not complete.

 Why, then, did Brun make the IDF’s determination public? US and Israeli intelligence officials meet all the time. If he had information to convey – if he was just being helpful – then he could have passed the evidence he possessed in an appropriately clandestine manner. Why contradict the official US position, and why do so while the secretary of defense is in the country? Hagel, after all, a) holds firm anti-interventionist positions; b) has just delivered Israel a whopping arms deal, and c) had confirmed just the day before that chemical weapons in Syria would be “a game changer.”
;Brun, in his presentation on Tuesday, quoted Harvard professor Joseph Nye and said that in the intelligence world he is faced with two sorts of obstacles – secrets and mysteries. The former can be stolen; the latter are unknown even to those who hold the secrets. So how to classify Brun’s own revelation at the conference? Was he secretly trying to goad the US into action or was he, unbeknownst even to himself, altering the course of events in trying to present a compelling lecture?
The US, as Hagel intimated, has every right to rely solely on its own intelligence, certainly after the WMD debacle in Iraq. Israeli security officials, though, seem certain that Brun’s information is rock solid.

Recounts  the shaving cream incident....

Brun, the top intelligence analyst in the IDF, does not step into daylight and speak off the cuff. Nor does he speak without the authorization of, at very least, the head of military intelligence. Publicly, authoritatively, declaring that the line has been crossed could reasonably be interpreted as a push in the direction of US action on Syrian soil.
 Eiland dismissed that theory. “I don’t think Israel has any such interest,” he said.

Eiland is of course, full of sH*t- Eiland knows Israel has a huge interest in taking down Syria
 Eiland characterized Israel as “very thrifty” in determining its interests. An interest, he added, is something for which you are willing to sacrifice. Israel would not likely be willing to harm its ties with the US in order to save Syrian rebels from Assad’s brutality.  (Framing the narrative, Israel has many interests with Syria, water, Golan, mineral rights etc.,) Certainly not with the United States recuperating from two wars in the Middle East as a third, in Iran, a far graver threat, flickered on the horizon. What’s more, sounding the whistle and serving as the trigger for NATO or US action in Syria would put Israel in a vulnerable position, Eiland said.

Will Israel offer to take down Syria, as long as the US takes on Iran? Thinking out loud.

Shoham agreed. Dragging the US into Syria would do little for US-Israel relations and even less in terms of building a credible US military option in Iran.
Instead, difficult as it is to believe, therefore, Brun may just have stumbled into his incendiary statement. Security experts, Eiland said, sometimes face a dilemma when asked to speak in public. “You don’t want to sound banal or boring, and you don’t want to give up secrets.”
Any professional intelligence officer, Eiland said, would first and foremost worry about the dangers of making a statement that might burn a source or an agent. “You don’t want to say something that could be traced back to a certain individual,” he said. “That would be a key consideration for him.”
As for Brun, a top notch officer by all accounts, putting his foot in his mouth and creating the sort of maelstrom that forces Kerry and Netanyahu to tie themselves up in knots so as to appear to agree, well, that, Eiland indicated, was entirely possible.
 What the hell is Israel cooking up? And Israel is definitely up to something!

Syrian officials deny use of chemical weapons, say regime has no need for them

 I can't disagree with the fact they (Syria) doesn' t need to use them. Syrian Army for all intents and purposes is cleaning house without the toxic cleaning agents....

 The official said the Syrian army had no need for using chemical weapons “because it is capable of reaching any area in Syria it wants”

Sharif Shehadeh, a Syrian lawmaker, said the Syrian army “can win the war with traditional weapons” and has no need for chemical weapons.

Syria’s official policy is not to confirm nor deny it has chemical weapons.

Shehadeh called the U.S. claims “lies” and likened them to false accusations that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction — a claim U.S. policymakers had used to justify the invasion of that country in 2003.
“What is being designed for Syria now is similar to what happened in Iraq when Colin Powell lied in the Security Council and said Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction prior to the U.S. invasion and occupation of that country,” he said.


  1. Again, I see a lot of smoke but the screen reveals nothing. The drone seems to be owned by a Cypriot gaz company, hopefully this will be proven soon and will deflate this nonsense.
    As far as all the noise about chem weapons, I think this is internal,politics at the expense of syria and likely to put pressure on the Americans. Why am I not worried, there's no move to go to the security council, un is very quiet and proving the allegations is impossible since nothing was used..
    Israel is stirring things up while hagel is trying to show how obedient he can be and Israel has nothing to lose by spreading misinformation.
    My assessment, nothing has changed, syria govt still has a free hand to destroy the terrorists and in the background diplomacy is heating up.
    Why? Think about it. None of Kerry, hagel or Obama have a reputation of big military gambles, quite the opposite. But the game is stil, play on with lots of noise and smoke, while in the background, work for a deal.

    1. "The drone seems to be owned by a Cypriot gaz company, hopefully this will be proven soon and will deflate this nonsense."

      I was unaware of that. Thanks.

      Internal politics crossed my mind. Sort of playing for the domestic audience...
      Checked to see if there was any move at the UN, yet. Nothing so far.
      Though the Iraq wmd/un scenario was getting mentioned

      Working for a deal?
      But, what sort of deal?
      One where Iran is off the table along with Syria?
      thinking pipelines and see this as the only realistic option?

      one more thing.
      If Hagel is trying to show how obedient he is he is doing a good job, but, should be furious at the humiliation.

    2. The news about the drone origin came from a syrian news agency, will likely be broadcast by agencies soon.
      The internal politics reference was to mean, us Israel maneuvering where Israel pushes the us and the Americans show their obedience by agreeing, but in reality doing what they think is necessary, one is to reassure Jordan's king who is visiting Obama, the us will manage the chem threat.
      No moves in un and more so, the Syrians are still in low threat mode not calling up full mobilization, the Russians would have warned them to do so.
      All in all, the only real heat I see is diplomacy. If I knew what the deal discussions are I would discuss but in this game, I think there are so many loose ends it would be very complex dealings, including Iran, hizballah, pipelines, turkey, and of course the fields off the coast. I am glad I don't have to be around that table.

    3. Things seem slightly different today. The news says, the drone was sent by syria and Iran as a warning to usisrael after syria received a warning from them to stop operations in al qasir. The warning apparently was delivered by a third party warning syria to stop its qasir advance or will be facing an Israeli attack. The drone was sent over Israel's gaz fields in the Mediterranean in response by syria and Iran that they will target the field if any attack takes place.
      Things are getting interesting.

    4. And by the way, this seems to be the reason for the escalation on chem weapons and why this Israeli intelligence decided to go out loud. All to raise the pressure. The escalation started after the drone incident. Seems the Russians were worried too which is why they are sending a fleet to be stationed permemnantly off syria. Things are getting hot. I guess the syrian army is making far more progress than we thought.

  2. I'm confused, maybe I haven't been paying attention, but where is the flip-flop? This has been Israeli lead all along, the tail is wagging the dog.

    From the link I left yesterday

    "Hagel indicated on Wednesday that he was caught by surprise when Israeli officials publicly revealed their assessment that Syria has used chemical weapons in its civil war.

    On Tuesday, a senior Israeli military intelligence official publically announced an assessment of chemical weapons use by the Syrian government, but the next day Hagel said he did not have any American intelligence confirming such a claim.

    A second senior Israeli military officer, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, said on Tuesday that chemical weapons appear to have been used in five cases. He said “dozens” of people were killed in the attacks when a “sarin-type” chemical was dispersed.

    The Israeli announcement of chemical weapons use in Syria came a day after Hagel visited Israel. He said that Minister of Defense Moshe Ya'alon did not alert him to the military intelligence assessment on Syria when they met in Tel Aviv."

    The Americans appear to be one step behind, and Hagel another step behind that - he has no credibility. Read the pdf at the above link if you haven't already.

    1. Hey freethinker: I haven't had a chance to read that pdf, sorry :(

      Where do I see the flip floppin?
      Well from yesterday, this was all about Israel saying there were wmd's and today
      the story I used and haaretz also were suggesting, IMO, this could have just been a slip up. As if the Israeli's are second guessing why this guy played this card :the way he did & when he did.

      Right here:"As for Brun, a top notch officer by all accounts, putting his foot in his mouth and creating the sort of maelstrom that forces Kerry and Netanyahu to tie themselves up in knots so as to appear to agree, well, that, Eiland indicated, was entirely possible."

      Brun just put his foot in his mouth?
      That seems a turn away from Syria has used the chems?

    2. The pdf doesn't shed any light on this - it's just a hilarious piece of double-speak and obfuscation. It makes the Americans look like clowns, as if they've been told by their bosses to say something but don't really know what to say.

  3. It is some kind of show, there was paint instead of blood - Boston bombers’ mother

    As or ISrael, taking on Syria is a serious risk. Recall the seashore spy devices recenetly uncovered that were alleged to have watched Russian activities at tartus. Perhaps the Israelis signing the gas offtake agreement with Gazprom is part of a broader calculation?

    Also there is this tidbit yesterday which even FOX reported on...Synchronistity with the US flip flop

    Syrian government's capture of town a 'big blow to the opposition,' group says. cutting an arms route for rebels trying to topple President Bashar Assad's regime, state media and activists said Thursday.

  4. Looks like the Israelis (both in and out of the US) tried to force war on the US and some less Zionized heads in the pentagon, possibly after contact with Russia, said nyet.

    This is not playing out the way that Sybil Edmonds recently suggested.

    Obama was naive when he stated that chemical weapons use was a red line. He presumed correctly that Assad would not use them against the terrorists, but he failed to see the trap that he was exposing his own regime to. He thought that the Israel firsters would plan any drive for US war with him in the loop.

  5. One thing you can count on, whatever you read in the media is 99% crap. Remember this,

    Report: U.S. preparing for an Israeli strike on Iran
    Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. officials are becoming increasingly concerned that Israel will strike Iran's nuclear facilities; U.S. wants to give sanctions more time.
    By Barak Ravid | Jan.14, 2012 | 9:43 AM |
    Check the date, jan 2012..... Seriously?...

  6. Israel is always flip flopping in the sense they rarely openly speak with one voice about their plans. Like with the USA, and most European nations, those plans are made in the backrooms, and the public leaders then "debate" to give their respective publics a false sense of democracy. I think the Israelis are working to provide NATO and the Americans an excuse to start bombing Syria. The new wmd fraud is syops against Syria and part of the PR strategy of preparing the public for more war.

    I also think that as long as China and Russia keep saying no, the Israeli-American new nazis wont risk open attack.

    вот так

  7. Ok! ok, let's be realistic folks, unless Russia, and maybe china give the nod, no attack on syria is possible. Taking syria without some approval is suicide and both the Russians and Chinese will be looking over their shoulders for the rest of the century.
    The result would be a deluge of countries saying remember what happened to syria and neither Russia or china will have any more credibility. So, unless there is a deal then no deal. An attack on syria means the Russians and Chinese are saying no to Iranian oil or gaz and no to future syrian exploration f their coast fields. So guess what, no attack. Except.....
    An attack would only benefit, Israel, their fields are small and won't last as long so they need new players in the area. The can't let Iran get stronger and richer, and don't like having hizballah in Lebanon as a third front. A weak Lebanon is better for them. If things go wrong then it would be the joker. Neither the Russians, Americans, Chinese or Europeans are willing to get in there without some sense of what's in it for me.
    So what is happening. I fully agree, an attack of diplomacy and a political solution. Tough dealings, billions at stake, democracy be damned, no one really cares. As usual though, watch for the joker.

  8. That is one strange get-up that Israeli is wearing in the photo. All pastel colours, with pink badges on his shoulders. And look how he tucks his little hat under that silly looking appendage on the shoulder.

    Do the Israelis hire "male" Jewish fashion designers to come up with these chic designs for their military uniforms? Might explain why most the leadership of that dysfunctional country are "males" with female names (Ariel, Bibi, etc).


    вот так

  9. This might be another reason Israel and its tools are pushing a Syrian WMD fraud.

    Срочное сообщение. Боевики применили против военнослужащих снаряды с химической начинкой

    Translation (a bit garbled unfortunately)

    Urgent message. The militants have used against military projectiles filled with the chemical

    "Today, military units after the artillery barrage launched an offensive on settled in the metropolitan area Barzov armed militias, for a few hours in the afternoon advancing much deeper.

    In response to the harsh persecution of terrorists used bombs with an unknown substance asphyxiating. According to reports published in informal sites, 10 Syrian army troops were sent to hospital with typical symptoms of poisoning and complaints of tightness in the airways. Information about the fatal cases not.

    In addition, mortar attacks from Barzov were tonight around Al-quarter Barbarian and the suburbs of Damascus Dahiet al-Assad. In the Al-Al Barbarian consequence of the terrorist attacks of mortar in the deaths of three civilians, Dahiet al-Assad no casualties, caused material damage to residential buildings and cars."

    The Israelis invent a story about the Syrian army using CW in order to cover up the planned use of CW by their own terrorists. With Israelis, such is old hat, they are always falsely accusing others of acts they themselves are doing.

    вот так

  10. Curious, Algeria again.
    Algerian President Bouteflika hospitalized

  11. Iraq PM points to Syria over deadly 'sectarian' unrest
    Intervention in Syria inevitable even without evidence of chemical arms use: EU minister

  12. The turkey PKK deals sets the table for a kurd break? IS this the start
    New deployments of Kurdish forces in the disputed Kirkuk province in north Iraq are a “dangerous development” and an attempt to reach its oil fields, a top Iraqi general said on Saturday. “They want to reach (Kirkuk’s) oil wells and fields,” Staff General Ali Ghaidan Majeed, the commander of Iraqi ground forces, told AFP, adding that the move breached an agreement whereby Kurdish peshmerga forces and Iraqi soldiers would maintain joint checkpoints.

  13. The coincidences are adding up...

  14. Former Mossad head Dagan: Israel should do whatever it can to bring down Syria’s Assad; Former Intel Chief Yadlin: United States should 'fly B-2 to Gulf to show its determination to use force if necessary.' Removing Assad from power, he added, will be highly beneficial for Israel from a strategic point of view, weakening Hezbollah and Iran in the process.

  15. odd?

    1. saw that news, it did strike me as odd

    2. Odd insofar as Syrian sailors. Also ship en route form Turkey to Malta. Writer makes point weather was good. Strange

  16. I believe this fishing expedition was discussed here....

    Georgian investigators are launching an extra probe into the last August Lopota gorge operation when Georgian special servicemen eliminated a group of Chechen militants near the Georgia-Dagestan border. The move follows a report by Public Defender Ucha Nanuashvili where he claims that the clash was a provocation while the militants in question had been recruited among Chechens living in exile in Europe and trained by President Saakashavili’s instructors. Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili supported the probe while Mikhail Saskashvili made routine statements that it was all fabricated by the Kremlin. I can’t leave Prime Minister’s statement unresponded. Ivanishvili claimed that the Georgian government trained North Caucasian insurgents for various operations and attacks. These words coincide with the recent Russian propaganda aimed at weakening Georgia and making it an easy catch for Russia, the president said.

  17. Syrian organ traffickers are backed by Western organizations - official

  18. The actions of the Tsarnaev brothers, whom investigators believe were the organizers of the recent terrorist attack in Boston, show that they had special training said the chairman of the Committee on National Security in the U.S. House of Representatives Michael McCaul.

    "Given the complexity of the explosive device and distinctive features which suggest Afghanistani or Pakistani, and their skillful manufacture and handling, all of this leads me to believe that they had an instructor.

    The question now is, where the instructor or instructors are, in Chechnya or in the United States?"said McCaul on the Fox network.
    Read more:

    1. anonymous, thanks for all the links
      I will read them. Been reading the ones left over the weekend
      I saw the 9/11 news
      Interesting to read the continual reinforcing of the terror/victim/fear meme
      Designed to keep the people down,dumb and in fear