Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Obama, Syria and the Aspin doctrine: Plans for a "limited" strike on Syria?

Here is what has been on my mind. Let me run it past all of you here.
We have all this jockeying for position prior to Geneva II.   
Not just Israel/NATO/GCC. Not just Russia. Syria, also.
We had the very, very important battle at Quassi(y)r. The loss of the strategic town by the NATO terrorists and subsequent moves by the SAA have weakened the NATO/Israel/GCC position.

Obama reacted by using the chemical weapon/red line/humanitarian R2P meme as a justification for a possible no fly/buffer zone being enacted in parts of Jordan and possibly Turkey.
The discord in Turkey allows for this to be planned while most are distracted by the ongoing protests. I had suggested this possibility previously. A possibility we needed to be mindful of. The reasons for the protests at this time? Creating a perception of discord for the wider audience? While those in charge get what needs to be done, done.

However, this no fly zone  is not going to get a pass at the UN. That has been made abundantly clear by Russia and China. There will be no approval from the international community for the US/Israel/GCC/UK/France to undertake this action using the UN for validation of insane, criminal, imperial actions.

I am afraid this will not stop the NATO/Israeli/CGG war mongering/imperial maniacs. 
Who can justify 'international' action via a coalition of the willing killers.
 So, will the NATO nations undertake an illegal, immoral attack on Syria?
With a great big sigh emanating from my chest.... I suspect they will.

Highlighting the relevant information and then linking an article which should provide some food for thought to readers. And hopefully help clarify why it is I am suspicious that there will be air strikes on Syria.
The justification to undertake this action:

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen welcomed what he said was a "clear US statement". "The international community has made clear that any use of chemical weapons is completely unacceptable and a clear breach of international law," Rasmussen told reporters in Brussels.

The plans:

"Washington is considering a no-fly zone to help Assad's opponents," one diplomat said. He said it would be limited "time-wise and area-wise, possibly near the Jordanian border," without giving details.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the no-fly zone would stretch up to 25 miles into Syria, and would be enforced with aircraft flown from Jordan or from Navy ships in the Mediterranean or Red Sea.

 Mediterranean and Red Sea.. Egypt .....and didn't Morsi recently make his Muslim Brotherhood lackey to NATO/GCC/Israel connections known?

The indication that NATO will engage in mass slaughter of civilians to pressure the Assad government:
The area near the Jordanian border contains some of the most densely-populated parts of Syria, including the outskirts of the capital Damascus.

Depending on the necessity, troops could be at the ready:

Washington has moved Patriot surface-to-air missiles, war planes and more than 4,000 troops into Jordan in the past week, officially as part of an annual exercise, but making clear that the forces deployed could stay on when the war games are over.

This "limited" type of action has been undertaken previously. Recall Serbia?

Obama, Syria and the Aspin Doctrine

As President Barack Obama contemplates his many bad options in Syria, he may want to consider the Aspin Doctrine, an argument for intervention abroad made by President Clinton’s first secretary of defense, Les Aspin.

 In 1993, the Clinton administration was wrestling with a seemingly insoluble conflict in Bosnia, where Serbian-backed troops were besieging cities and slaughtering civilians.

 Aspin’s advice was straightforward: Let’s bomb the Serbs and see what happens.

Critics objected that military action would put the United States on a slippery slope toward deeper intervention, but Aspin rejected that thinking as outmoded.

 "If it doesn’t work," he said, the United States could simply "back off." "Take it one step at a time, and see where we end up," he said.

 That’s the Aspin Doctrine: Military intervention doesn’t have to be a slippery slope as long as you keep the option of walking away.

 At first, Clinton rejected Aspin’s suggestion. But two years later, he changed his mind and launched airstrikes that helped bring the Bosnian Serbs to the negotiating table — while insisting that he would not send U.S. soldiers into combat there.

 Obama’s decision last week to send weapons and ammunition to the rebels fighting Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria carried a distant echo of Clinton’s experience in Bosnia.

 Like Clinton, Obama initially rejected proposals for lethal military aid. But he announced Thursday that he has decided to help arm the rebels, beginning with modest measures: a gradual escalation of aid including small arms and ammunition now, and perhaps eventually the antitank and antiaircraft missiles the rebels say they need most.
 Why the change in tactic?

Probably most important, though, is this: The rebels were in danger of losing. Thousands of fighters from Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have streamed into Syria over the last three months, and they have helped Assad’s regime regain the upper hand on the battlefield.

 Obama’s decision won’t transform the situation on the ground. The rebels may well suffer more reverses in coming weeks. But with similar aid from Britain, France and other countries, the U.S help could speed the process of turning the rebels into a more effective army — one the Assad regime won’t be able to destroy.

Obama was left with two unpalatable options: escalate or accept defeat. Doing nothing might have led to irreversible results, the collapse of the rebels, so he chose to escalate — but only a little and with a vow to put no U.S. boots on the ground.

 Some critics will still warn that he has stepped onto a slippery slope that leads to direct military intervention. But that’s where the Aspin Doctrine comes in. There are plenty of examples of the United States aiding one faction in a civil war, only to disengage if our client army failed.

 Obama’s gradual escalation doesn’t preclude military intervention later — and could even pave the way for it.

 In 1995, Clinton began airstrikes only after the Bosnian army, strengthened by help from neighboring Croatia, had begun to hold its own against the Serbs.

 The experience appears to have left Clinton a devotee of the Aspin Doctrine. "Some people say, ‘OK, see what a big mess it is? Stay out!’ I think that’s a big mistake," Clinton said of Syria last week in comments reported by Politico. "Sometimes it’s just best to get caught trying, as long as you don’t overcommit."

 Increased aid to the rebels, in other words, doesn’t need to be a slippery slope — as long as the president remembers to keep his footing.

Much is at stake here. The success or failure of the Syrian Army can affect this strike plan, possibly.
My thoughts are most definitely with the Syrian people. Who have shown a level of bravery and perseverance, unimaginable to myself. The kind of spirit lacking in so many these days.



  2. A surprising article to see in GlobalResearch-
    Russian Advanced Weapons for Syria: Unrevealed Secrets of Vladimir Putin’s Recent Visit to London

    and embelished a little by the often dodgy VeteransToday -
    “Doomsday Weapons To Syria”

    Is that Dam-Press article credible?

  3. Sheikh Imran Hosein's analysis of the situation in Turkey. Very interesting -
    Turkish Unrest Could Encourage An Attack On Syria

    Another Morris interview, and 'social media' playing its part again, this time from Brazil. A precursor of a BRICS Spring?
    Mass Protests in Brazil

    T.West of AfriSynergy tells it like it is. Nothing new to the regulars here, but its good to here to truth spoken loud & clear.
    Analysis of Obama's Interview with Charlie Rose on Syria
    more to follow

    A very illuminating talk by a former orthodox Jew (now an atheist Jew) -
    When Israel Is Mighty

    1. Regarding the Brics "spring" anonymous linkie person mentioned that and yes...
      it looks like it
      As in contrived to destabilize the global challenger in the BRICS

  4. Penny, that Aspin Doctrine is bloody frightening. These people are barking mad. A good way to get a really big war going though, and as Imram Hosein was saying in that interview above, that seems to be what the Zionist elite are striving for.

    1. freethinker

      the Aspin Doctrine is enough to frighten any sane person who loves the planet earth and wants peace among the human family

  5. Hi Pen,
    What we are getting is a stream of articles from israel (and from people under their complete control) pressuring the US to attack Syria or jam the US into a situation whereby they find themselves at war with Syria and/or Russia. The US is holding back from getting into that position and for good reason.

    There's one big difference with Syria as opposed to Serbia, Libya and a score of other countries the US has bombed. Syria has the missiles to shoot back with. And Russia is backing Syria and if Syria hasn't got S300 missiles, then the Russian ships in the Mediterranean certainly have.

    Syria has the deadly <a href='">Yakhont anti ship missiles</a> so the US fleet will have to anchor many nautical miles away which means the US Navy jets will not be able to surprise Syria and therefore will be very vulnerable. If the planes are launched from Jordan, then the air base they come from will be attacked.

    If the US attacks Syria it will be breaching international law and therefore will be fair game as far as Russia is concerned.

    1. Hey James
      You are making some great points here
      Yes, we are getting lots of spin to push the war agenda
      some of the stuff left by Ali..don't know if you looked at it, I took the one in and Israel is pushing for war so bad..

      So, the Red Sea may not be used? Is that what you are suggesting?
      I don't know?
      Syria does have the missiles true enough the other difference is that this time Russia is not a failed state.

      recall this?

      General Clark wrote about his fury upon learning that Russian peacekeepers had entered the airport at Pristina, SERBIA. (unlike antiwar I do not recognize the terror state of Kosovo)

      "No sooner are we told by Britain's top generals that the Russians played a crucial role in ending the West's war

      we learn that if NATO's supreme commander, the American General Wesley Clark, had had his way, British paratroopers would have stormed Pristina airport, threatening to unleash the most frightening crisis with Moscow since the end of the Cold War."

      "I'm not going to start the third world war for you," General Sir Mike Jackson,
      commander of the international KFOR peacekeeping force, is reported to have told Gen. Clark when he refused to accept an order to send assault troops to prevent Russian troops from taking over the airfield

      1999 original article

      Nato supreme commander General Wesley Clark is not being allowed to fade away quietly. Days after the Clinton administration relieved him of his command two months early, Newsweek is reporting that the victor of Kosovo was blocked from sending paratroopers to Pristina airport to pre-empt an unexpected Russian advance.

      Lieutenant-general Sir Michael Jackson overruled General Clark because the British commander did not want to spark a clash with the Russians.

      "I'm not going to start Third World War for you," General Jackson told the US commander, according to Newsweek. In the hours that followed General Clark's order, both men sought political backing for their position, but only General Jackson received it.

      Russia 1999 and Russia 2013 are two very different countries and the US should stop this madness now

    2. Jets could be launched from carriers in the Red Sea but I'm figuring the Russians will see them coming and have time to warn Syria and effect a welcoming party. Same for launching from the Mediterranean. To be clear of the Syrian and Russian fleet missiles, the carrier would need to be 300+kms from the Russian Navy and further from the Syrian coast. The fighter jets would have to pass over the Russians and they and the Syrians again would get lots of warning.

      The US could send bombers from Diego Garcia but this would be very problematical again given the Syrian and Russian missiles and the ample warning they would have.

      The so-called Aspin Doctrine may work against an adversary that is inclined to give multiple warnings but would be useless against Russia who is given to act without further warning.

      Again, it is jews trying to convince the US to put it's head on the chopping black. It isn't going to work. It is well to remember that the US only attacks countries that can't shoot back.

  6. Hey freethinker I haven't read or checked out everything yet, but, Sheik Imran Hosein.
    I am not entirely sure who he is. Though I think someone has mentioned him previously.
    This is my first time listening to him.. so it's interesting.
    He thinks Turkey is going to strike at Syria, which will cause even more unrest in Turkey then is previously ongoing?

    Cute, he is not familiar with Twitter :D
    Nor am I. So, I don't feel to bad about that.

    Interesting that he is comparing Turkey to an "Arab Spring" I am not getting that same 'feeling' of the situation though I do feel, it is something contrived.

    In order to strike Syria and as has been suggested by Fez, lead to a annex for the Kurds?
    Israel and some of the Kurds have been as thick as thieves..
    As of right now I do not see Erdogan leaving Turkey
    Sheik suspects "pressure" and so do I.

    1. I've mentioned Imran Hosein a few times. As a 'scientific materialist' myself I find his belief in eschatology (study of end-times prophecy) baffling and intriguing, but he's a very wise man with a vice like grip on reality. Unfortunately he seems to be a lone voice amongst Sunni scholars. He has quite a few videos on youtube and is always worth listening to (IMHO) although some would regard his prognosis as not leaving much room for optimism.

      Is end-times prophecy really coming to pass or is it just being used as a script by a bunch of inbred lunatics?

      No, I agree that the PTB don't want to get rid of Erdogan (yet) but they do want him to get busy waging war. Both he and Obama have been getting strong signals that they need to get with the program. Backsliders will be got rid of one way or another.

      Syria, The Lie and An American Coup
      A guy name Ben "Rhodes" was on the phone with reporters peddling to the media what John McCain and Bill Clinton wanted while Obama was at an LGBT meeting. (T.West)

      Turkey needs to be kept in one piece until it has done its job. The Kurds will have to wait, but they can be used as agents of change.

  7. Hey james&freethinker
    din din time at our house, I am throwing this here for now, because the story is complet bullshit
    but it plays in to the push for war

    anonymous sources who point a finger at Hezbollah
    read this lie

    Jordan's military says infiltrators? from Syria ? have clashed with Jordanian soldiers near the border. One infiltrator was killed and two wounded.

    The attackers opened fire on a border post on Wednesday, according to a Jordanian military spokesman. Soldiers returned the fire.

    The spokesman would not say how many infiltrators were involved or disclose other details. He spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.

    Jordan is concerned about reports that fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah are reinforcing Syrian troops trying to retake control of Daraa province across the Jordanian border. Daraa is a key supply route for weapons for rebels.

    Predominantly Sunni Muslim Jordan is nervous about the growing influence of Shiite Iran in the region. Iran is the main backer of both Hezbollah and the Syrian regime.

    infiltrators attackers, blah, blah blah
    this story is fabricated

    1. all those US troops in Jordan and an 'infiltrator' is going to attack Jordan????

    2. The only 'infiltrators' will be those from the world's premier false flag nation, israel. Then the jewish press will try and beat the US public into a frenzy of retribution (for which many of them (us!) have been so well programmed). And all to put pressure on their reluctant puppets because israel and their owners' plans for a jew world order is going down the toilet.

      I'm sure not everyone in the american elite is pleased with what the zionists have done to their country. I'm equally sure that not everyone in the US military leadership is too pleased what these zionists have done to their forces and to their standing in the world.

      Bullies find it increasingly harder to find their allies when they are going down.

    3. Sounds like the usual from the zionists.

      вот так

  8. Nice work, Penny. I share your worries. The whole mo of the zionist/fascist west has been from the beginning total world domination by the western oligarchs. When they couldn't conquer Vietnam, they wreaked the country as much as they could short of glassing it. As Israel wants Syria physically, I doubt they will let up unless they get a knife to their throats and support from their American quisling has been neutralised. That last is a very tall order.

    The Soviet involvement in Afghanistan was an important contributing factor to the USSR dissolution. One of the side reasons the west is attacking Syria. The ziofascists are probably trying to get the Russians overextended in order to repeat the process. Russian people are not interested in a foreign war. The fascists know this and are probably banking on a lot of new converts to any color revolution they may attempt should Russia get involved again like in Afghanistan. The Russian leadership also knows this, and is working at every other alternative to direct involvement. War now would not do the Russian economy any favours. Wars hurt the smaller economies much more than they hurt the larger.

    вот так

    1. I am not so sure the west can afford war either?
      But, they may want war for precisely that reason
      The economy is in the dumper. War pushes the fear buttons.
      Keeps people in check. The heavy hand of state tyranny can slam down hard
      This whole situation is frightening, in that if it goes nuclear....
      we are all in for a world of hurt
      I keep hoping for cooler heads, but no, the psychos in charge are plain psychos

  9. This is interesting:

    U.S. courts Taliban, Russia backs Karzai

    There are 2 other earlier articles on the same page, all 3 together make interesting reading.

    American turning on Karzai and switching to support the Taliban would be consistent with what they support against Syria. It can be done, the Taliban had American support in the early 90's. The Israelis managed to get control of Hamas after a hiatus, and they run the Americans now, perhaps this is their plan? No more Bin Laden, "Afghan terrorists" can again become "freedom fighters" now in western media, and most Americans will cluelessly suck it up like they do all the other toxic sludge they are spoon fed.

    The original Afghan war plan envisaged Muslim "freedom fighters" infiltrating and subverting the Central Asian republics, taking these out of the Russian-Chinese orbit. And then using them to infiltrate and destabilise Russia and China.

    It could be a possibility the zionists/fascists are now prepping similar terrorist incursions like those into Syria for Iran and Central Asia. If they have the Taliban on their side, these ops will be much easier. Look how easy it was for Israel to con Palestinians into fighting for greater Israel in Syria once they co-opted the Hamas leadership and got them doing the recruiting for them.

    вот так

  10. More on American-Afghan relations:

    The US has found new friends in Afghanistan – the Taliban

    вот так

  11. Dempsey warns Kerry against bombing Syria

    "Kerry came out strongly for the bombing of air bases belonging to Syrian government forces, which, in his opinion, are used for chemical weapons attacks against opposition groups.

    Dempsey made a serious warning against such a move stating that as a military commander such attacks carry a high-risk and will require further large-scale bombing of Syrian air defense facilities.

    As noted by the media, the message has caused quite a stir, noting that Dempsey did not rule out air strikes but merely warned what the consequences of such actions would be."

    Syrian opposition continues to execute children

    "According to news reports by the broadcaster 15-year-old Talaa Suleiman was executed in the city of Deir ez-Zor in retaliation for the killing of a Saudi mercenary.

    Ten days ago, in Aleppo another teenager was shot to death in front of his parents having been accused of blasphemy.

    According to witnesses, the 15-year-old street vendor Mohammed Kataa refused to give the insurgents coffee free of charge which led them into a rage."

    вот так

    1. What a 'brave' bunch of fellows
      Killing children, disgusting

  12. "Thousands evacuated after explosions at Russian munitions depot storing 13million shells, with 1,500 firefighters sent to tackle the blaze"

    This has israel printed all over it.

    No doubt, the intention (as always) is to intimidate but israel has misread the mood (and reality) entirely.

    1. Hey James, went to check that out
      location etc.,
      So North of Georgia/Azerbaijan (roughly)
      Couldn't tell from the google map, but, this is definitely just north of chechnya
      And eastward of the northern part of dagestan
      Yup ,It is typical of Israeli activity in collusion with their Islamist mercs..who are conveniently located in the vicinity
      I would think that this is a message to Russia

  13. Dagan saying Israel has opportunity to reorient its alliance in MENA? Would this be a "change"?

    “The interests of Israel, the Gulf countries, and even the Palestinians, to a certain extent, and even Egypt lie together.”

    Which dovetails into Saudi Arabia supplying anti tanks to rebels. Still waiting for a story on the Saudi King. When the President of iran won the election duly note it was a press statement put out by the ministry congratulating him rather than a phone call - protocol notwithstanding. If he is brain dead, who exactly is running policy? Not to rehash the regime changes of late but they could point to a factional split especially in view of the Nayef Jr elevation (father death) and Abdullah son taking on national police...

    "Saudi Arabia supplies Syrian rebels in Aleppo with anti-tank missiles (Haaretz). Rebel sources said Russian-made “Konkurs” anti-tank missiles had been supplied by America’s key Gulf ally, Saudi Arabia. They have already been used to destructive effect and may have held up a promised regime assault on Aleppo."

    This is interesting from Der Speigel a few days ago:
    SPIEGEL: What do you think would happen if Israel were to carry out a pre-emptive attack to prevent Tehran from building the bomb?

    Turki: Iran would retaliate against everybody -- with its missiles, with suicide bombers, with agents. And we would be the first victims. Imagine if a nuclear installation is destroyed in Iran and there is fallout on our side of the border. The Iranian people would coalesce around their government. In short, it would be total mayhem.

    Russia is reiterating its commitment to the 3300
    Russia stands by its contract to sell S-300 air defense missiles to Syria

    1. Dammit
      I lost my response to you anonlinkie person
      my own fault,7340,L-4394476,00.html

      Israel and the GCC/Egypt/MB Palestinians have much in common in the way of interests

      Israel wants territory and the lackies will give it
      Some of Egypt via Morsi/ Syria thanks to SA/Qatar/Turkey. Push Palestinians into Jordan as has always been planned
      Made clear to me by this statement

      " Israel, he said, will oppose the return of the refugees, which is why Arab states should grant them citizenship"

      He means Jordan, mostly.

      Israel is not afraid of Sunni Islamists infact they are kindred. The enemy of my enemy is my friend..right?

      SA is still a mystery to me. It seems their should be a power vacuum but there isn't?
      So, who is running what? I haven't a clue
      Do you have any ideas?

      Odd that Speigel asked that question??
      I don't know what to make of that

      The s300's- saw Russia was fulfilling the deal
      Interesting language too.

      "We respect all our contracts and are honoring all our contractual obligations," Lavrov said in an interview with state-run Rossiya 24 TV.
      "As yet, the contracts are not finished, they have not been delivered in full," he added

      So what has been delivered and what is yet to come?
      Since, I suspect the s300 components are present in Syria, I wonder if this is Russian personnel to operate the equipment?
      Just a thought

  14. Back to Serbia:

    EU pushing Serbia on Kosovo with the “carrot” of accession (as they already pulled in the economically challenged Croatia - just what the EU needs at this stage - of Syrian rebel weapons supply fame)
    IMF|USD faction apparatus using loan talks form their end
    US plays the other side by pressing the NATO case of Kosovo and Bosnia.
    Russia remains steadfast in defense of the historical Serb relationship (going back to the riots last summer and the associated talk of Russian passports for Serbs in n. Kosovo)
    Russia relationship more important than ever given launch of South Stream
    Hurriyet yest'd points out the Serb Kosovo "deal" has amounted to very little in the way of reality (not really a surprise is it).

    Consider scandals unfolding in Solvenia, Czech and Bulgaria (emphasis added). All regimes were pro austerity (which the IMF has rejected). Bulgaria is particularly important - the last move of the govt before it fell last year was to officially end the Alexandria Burgas pipeline...That same gov't asked the US to house permanent troops in the country (after giving permission to fly drones there over past few years).

    All the while, Serb/Kosovo protests ongoing

    How the death of the Serb NATO envoy fits in or if it does is unclear? The Serb Nato event occured in December and the revelations about the Croatian weapons supply to the rebels broke in Feb?

    1. I think any deal forced in the Serbia Kosovo area is doomed to fail
      The EU is one big mess so the US must be pressuring them to engage in this nonsense
      I saw the protest story

      The Serbian NATO envoy, could he have been keeping Moscow in the loop?
      Don't know

      And ideas?