Monday, April 21, 2014

Putin playing long game over Russian kin in Ukraine

Interesting title and an interesting analysis 

 Russia's decision last week to sign a peace accord on Ukraine does not mean that the Kremlin is backing down, rather that President Vladimir Putin is prepared to be patient in pursuit of his ultimate objective.
That aim, his own reflections and those of people close to his way of thinking seem to indicate, is one day to re-unite Russian speaking peoples, including those living within the borders of Ukraine, within one common home.
I am really not so sure that this is the Russian objective. It seems some western analysts believe or want us to believe that, but, why should we?

As a skilled tactician, Putin knows that to push too fast to achieve this ambition could be damaging for Russia - as demonstrated by the Western threat of tough sanctions and Europe's rush to wean itself off Russian gas supplies.
Signing the four-way agreement on Ukraine in Geneva last week, and thereby showing the West that it was willing to compromise, made tactical sense for Russia.
Putin the tactician. A common western claim.

With another four years before he needs to seek re-election, and the strong chance of winning another 6-year term after that, Putin can take his time, giving him an advantage over his Western rivals whose policies are driven by more short-term imperatives.
"Now the main thing is to keep the powder dry and be prepared for the eventuality that the crisis in Ukraine is going to last a long time," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a journal which has the Russian foreign minister on its editorial board.
"Agreements will be broken and then made again. Russia, for once, is not on the defensive, it is advancing. That means it doesn't have to get flustered and can keep ploughing its furrow."
Putin's long game means he is unlikely to actively seek to involve Russian in an armed conflict over Ukraine any time soon.
Very important because the talking heads drone endlessly on about troops at the border. Imminent invasion etc. But, if Putin is in for the long haul why would have have to actively seek out armed conflict?
UNLESS, certain parties who are very interested in armed conflict keep pushing the issue- NATO

But equally, it means that European states will have to adapt to a long-term future when persistent sanctions complicate their trade relations and with the threat of disruption to their Russian gas supplies hanging over them constantly.
Why do European states have to adapt to that 'long term future'? They can simply not participate in the sanctions.

The Kremlin's official objectives in Ukraine are limited: protecting Russia's own security, countering NATO expansion, and helping Russian-speaking residents of Ukraine if they come under threat of persecution. Russia denies any plans to invade.
Omitting the rehashing  of the Geneva Agreement.... and the shooting mentioned in yesterday's post
Shooting near Slavyansk Ukraine/ Sniper reports

Still, people close to the talks said they were notable because it was the first time, in multiple attempts, that Russian's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has sat down for discussions on Ukraine with a mandate to do a deal.
It appeared to me that Sergei Lavrov has attempted to 'do a deal' on a number of previous occasions-
By showing it was prepared to talk, the diplomat said, the Kremlin relieved the diplomatic pressure that was building, and bought some time before further sanctions were imposed.

"Talks and compromises are just part of his (Putin's) tactics," said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity and stressed he was expressing his private opinion. "He wants to have Ukraine."
Anonymous diplomats making inflammatory claims are very unhelpful. It seems to be a reinforcement of negative stereotypes- So far all I have seen in this situation is US refusal to negotiate or to get their coup/technocrats operating at some credible level. Admittedly that would be difficult. Maybe the US doesn't even care about the credibility of the technocrats in Kiev?

Russia's offer of compromise could widen differences inside the Western coalition assembled against the Kremlin, something that would only benefit the Kremlin.

There are already differences between the United States, which is hawkish on sanctions, and a more cautious Europe where many countries are determined to avoid a costly confrontation.
If European leadership was less pea brained they would send the US packing back across the Atlantic


Behind the standard, official Kremlin line on its objectives in Ukraine, when Putin or his associates offer up occasional glimpses of what he is thinking, evidence emerges of a more expansive set of aims.

On Thursday, during a question and answer session that was televised live, Putin at one point reflected on how during tsarist rule, large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine belonged to Russia and were known as Novorossiya - literally, New Russia.

"All these were territories which were handed over to Ukraine in the 1920s by the Soviet government. Why they did that, God knows," he said.
Those remarks were a brief interlude in a programme which lasted just short of four hours and covered dozens of topics, but they were noted by Kremlin-watchers as highly significant.
I noticed the western media jumped on this Novorossiya recounting. And this brought me back to the story about Ukraine have no defined borders. As a nation state. Ukraine has no demarcated borders?

"Now the aim is Novorossiya," Andrei Illarionov, a former economic advisor to Putin who is now a critic, wrote on his blog, setting out what he believes is the Kremlin's thinking. "It is the historic mission of the Russian person."
Andrei may believe he knows what the Kremlin is thinking, but, does he?
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov, when asked to elaborate on what Putin had meant by his comments on "Novorossiya" and Tsarist-era borders, declined to comment.

The thesis of a Russian nation divided by artificial national borders has been developed by people who are close to Putin's way of thinking. These include senior figures in the Russian Orthodox Church.

Putin displayed his closeness to the church on Saturday night when he appeared at an Easter service in Moscow's Church of Christ the Saviour, and received a personal blessing from Patriarch Kirill, leader of the church.

"Millions of Russian people live, and continue to live, in Ukraine, several million Ukrainians continue to live in Russia," said Metropolitan Hilarion, head of the church's external relations department and one of the patriarch's closest aides.
"We have a common language, a common culture, we have a common past and I believe deeply that we have a common future," he said in comments posted on the church's Internet site.

"The political state of affairs which replaces simple common sense, interferes in people's fates, destroys them, and like a knife cuts through human relationships, tearing the ties between peoples, is, after all, only temporary in nature."

I really like that last paragraph 



  1. Hi Pen, good post :)
    Here is short video which is a large part of the answer as to Putin's thinking, motivation and plans.

    Here is the link to youtube-
    Putin: Measure your success by non-fired missiles!


    Looks like the genius plan from Amerika is already a failure.

  3. I think the crap is about to hit the fan in the Ukraine. The Empire's anti-Russian propaganda is relentless here in the US. Something big is coming.

  4. 15 years with Vladimir Putin...what has been the result for Russians?
    roughly: How has Russia fared in 15 years of Putins rule
    правление = rulership
    ВВП= GDP
    инфляция = inflation
    пенсия = pension

  5. CyberBerkut broke some emails of the junta's Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. On Wednesday April 1, his PR associate Dmitryi Buk, who is Avakov's former press secretary and business partner, wrote in response to the killing of Sasha Beliy by Avakov's men: "Arsen Borisovitch, I am worried about the Berkut, I learned that Yarosh [the leader of the fascist Right Sector] does not agree [with the proposed deal]. He wants to have 5-7 Berkut members and, absolutely, their non-comissioned officer imprisoned. He does not want to get calm and he will be milk us for Beliy for a long time. Press coverage is being planned, and I know materials are ready only for two [members of Berkut]. Let the prosecutor prepare something for other Berkut people too or let him do it all one day later. I am worried for it is necessary to tell the press beforehand." On April 7, Avakov wrote: "I know, I will think up something with Nalivaychenko [the head of the Security Service of Ukraine--analogous to the CIA] and I will make an announcement. The date cannot be changed, but wait with the media until we hand over the Berkut. Yarosh will shut up and you will fix the press."

  6. not promising Balkan news ‏@NewsBalkan 1h
    Leading candidate for Ukrainian presidency, Poroshenko, visited Israel over the weekend & met with President Peres and FM Lieberman.

  7. I wondered what was cooking with Transcarpathia because I have read some articles by a young man from there over at Strategic Culture some time back.

    Wonder if US saw this coming ;^)
    Hungarians, Rusyns in Zakarpatie afraid of forced Ukrainization, want autonomy

    Really well written piece

  8. hey all
    thanks for the comments- I am in the throes of where the heck is spring blahs

    It is April 23 and there are still no leaves out on the trees- None
    NO maple leaves
    NO oak leaves
    It's as if spring has forgotten us here in Southern Ontario
    we have had wet snow, again, today.
    I noticed the other day the swallows have arrived from further south...
    I wonder how all the summer birds are enjoying are very extended winter?